NEW ZEALAND Price Valuation NZ$ 1.74 Event 12-month target NZ$ month TSR % -10.1
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- Grant Pope
- 5 years ago
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1 NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 05:06, 24 Feb 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$2.20 Valuation NZ$ DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ month TSR % Volatility Index Low GICS sector Utilities Market cap NZ$m 2, day avg turnover NZ$m 2.4 Number shares on issue m 1,000 Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Jun 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Revenue m 2, , , ,091.7 EBIT m Reported profit m Adjusted profit m Gross cashflow m CFPS CFPS growth % nmf PGCFPS x PGCFPS rel x EPS adj EPS adj growth % nmf PER adj x PER rel x Total DPS Total div yield % Franking 1 % ROA % ROE % EV/EBITDA x Net debt/equity % P/BV x NZ imputation credits are only able to be used by shareholders to offset NZ income tax liability. GNE NZ vs NZSE50, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February 2015 (all figures in NZD unless noted) 24 February 2015 Macquarie Securities (NZ) Limited Warns on PFI forecast Event (GNE) reports EBITDAF, NPAT and DPS of $173m, $32.7m and $0.08ps - a shade lower than Macq at $178m, $48m and $0.08ps. Impact The company has guided that it might miss PFI EBITDAF ($363m; consensus and Macq roughly at this level) due to lower international oil prices (partly offset by higher production guidance) and continued aggressive retail competition. Kupe 1H15 EBITDAF at $47m was in line with Macq at $46m, and the electricity generation/retail segment was a small miss ($126m versus $131m Macq, or -4%). Kupe earnings will begin to decay meaningfully in 3-4 years and a capex decision on the undeveloped reserves is likely to be made by partners in the next year or so we think. Swaption income at $10m was lower than forecast ($14m) but should pick up on the renewed MELCA cover (eff 01/15). Our LT swaption income assumption of $36m pa is looking too aggressive and we may need to trim this down towards $20m pa given MRP and smaller cover roll-offs. GNE will hold retail prices over CY15. Macq -1%, so no surprise there. NZ retail electricity margins are at 1% based on forward wholesale prices, and we think retail prices are likely to begin to rise early next CY. Non-fuel opex came in below Macq at $142m ($155m) and we expect it to hold on to this variance (contract maintenance costs/huntly opex mainly). OCF was a miss ($105m v Macq at $125m) on tax and WC. Capex was lower at $20m (all SIB) v Macq at $27m, and continuing a sector-wide theme; FY guidance was lowered from $60m for FY15 to $40-50m. FY DPS at $0.16 is affirmed despite EBITDAF guidance. 1H15 FCF payout is 87% or 92% if you deduct the 1H15 oil price/currency hedge benefit (80% volume hedged at US$100/bbl at 0.78 or $12m EBIT versus spot) and addback non-mean hydrology output impact (-95 GWh or $7m). This ratio is getting to a level which might challenge the company s progressive dividend policy. Earnings and target price revision FY15-17 EPS -10%, +2% and -6% on higher tax and Kupe production guidance. PT largely unchanged at $1.82 (from $1.88). Price catalyst 12-month price target: NZ$1.82 based on a DCF methodology. Catalyst: Oil prices; ASX futures; Kupe development capex decision by FY17? Action and recommendation We think the electricity generation/retail sector dividend yield and FCF yield is cheap versus market. On GNE, we see downside risks to our swaption income forecasts and Kupe contributions (WTI US$88/bbl LT) and it is not our preferred play across the sector. Please refer to page 4 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
2 Fig 1 Summary Financials (GNE:$2.21) Interim Results 2H/14A 1H/15A 2H/15E 1H/16E Profit & Loss 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E June y/e June y/e Operating Revenue $m 1,032 1,068 1,044 1,068 Operating Revenue $m 2,005 2,111 2,090 2,092 EBITDAF $m EBITDAF $m Depreciation and amortisation $m Depreciation and amortisation $m Depreciation and depletion - oil and gas $m Depreciation and depletion - oil and gas $m EBIT - pre non-recurring $m EBIT - pre non-recurring $m Total EBIT $m Total EBIT $m Net Interest Income $m Net Interest Income $m Pre-Taxation Profit $m Pre-Taxation Profit $m Taxation expense/(credit) $m Taxation expense/(credit) $m Profit after taxation $m Profit after taxation $m Minority Interests $m Minority Interests $m Reported Profit after taxation $m Reported Profit after taxation $m After-tax Non-Recurring $m After-tax Non-Recurring $m Underlying NPAT $m Underlying NPAT $m Summary assumptions 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E PV (FY15-20) $m 1333 GWAP $/MWh PV of perpetuity $m 547 LWAP:GWAP / PV FCF Available to Ow ners $m 1881 Average retail sales price (ex T/D) % pa BV Kupe interest $m 264 Sw aption fees $m Less Net Debt $m 966 Kupe EBITDAF $m Non-core net assets held for sale $m 19 Total Generation GWh 6,427 6,606 6,248 6,248 Equity Value $m 1744 Variation from mean hydro and w ind GWh Shares Outstanding m 1000 Thermal Fuel cost (inc T/D) $/MWh DCF Equity Value per share $ p.s Ratios 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Risk free rate % 3.60 EPS (adj) cps Post-tax market risk premium % 7.0 PE (adj) x Asset beta 0.6 EV/EBITDA x WACC % 8.05 Effective tax rate % Payout ratio (NPAT) % Payout ratio (adj FCF) % DPS cps Imputation % ROE % Net Debt $m Net Debt/Equity % Net Interest Cover (EBIT) x SIB capex $m SIB capex/depreciation % Cashflow Analysis 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Balance Sheet 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Pre-taxation Profit $m Cash $m Depreciation & Amortisation $m Receivables $m Tax (Paid)/Credit $m (13) (48) (43) (45) Inventories $m Other $m 1 (41) - - Investments $m Gross Cashflow $m Property, Plant & Equipment $m 2,759 2,704 2,728 2,680 Changes in Working Capital $m (0) Intangibles $m Operating Cashflow $m Other Assets $m Acquisitions $m (1) Total Assets $m 3,629 3,550 3,605 3,510 Capital Expenditure $m (82) (45) (50) (51) Current Payables $m Asset Sales $m Short Term Debt $m Other $m Long Term Debt $m Investing Cashflow $m (83) (45) (50) (51) Other Liabilities $m Equity raised $m Net assets $m 1,881 1,853 1,877 1,826 Dividends paid $m (121) (146) (163) (168) Total Liabilities $m 1,749 1,697 1,728 1,683 Other $m Shareholders' Funds $m 1,881 1,853 1,877 1,826 Financing Cashflow $m (121) (146) (163) (168) Minority Interests $m Net Change in Cash (inc FX) $m Total Shareholders' Equity $m 1,881 1,853 1,877 1,826 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, February February
3 Fundamentals Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a marginally positive view on. The strongest style exposure is Growth, indicating this stock has good historic and/or forecast growth. Growth metrics focus on both top and bottom line items. The weakest style exposure is Profitability, indicating this stock is not efficiently converting its investments to earnings as proxied by ratios such as ROE, ROA 42/118 Global Alpha Model Sector Rank % of BUY recommendations 43% (3/7) Number of Price Target downgrades 0 Number of Price Target upgrades 5 Attractive Quant Rank within Country Rank within Sector Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. The rankings are displayed relative to the sector and country. Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score % -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple % -50% 0% 50% 100% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and country Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score Percentile relative to sector(/118) Percentile relative to country(/40) For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 24 February
4 Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down % in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 40% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 30% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 31 December 2014 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 51.80% 58.06% 45.07% 44.42% 60.54% 46.81% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 5.29% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 31.80% 27.37% 30.99% 50.10% 35.37% 33.51% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 3.08% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 16.39% 14.57% 23.94% 5.48% 4.08% 19.68% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.44% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) GNE NZ vs NZSE50, & rec history (all figures in NZD currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February month target price methodology GNE NZ: NZ$1.82 based on a DCF methodology Company-specific disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 09-Feb-2015 GNE NZ Underperform NZ$ Dec-2014 GNE NZ Underperform NZ$ Aug-2014 GNE NZ Underperform NZ$ May-2014 GNE NZ Underperform NZ$1.90 Target price risk disclosures: GNE NZ: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: The views expressed in this research reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd (ABN , AFSL No ) ( MGL ) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group ) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) a Participant of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Equities Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act Any MGL subsidiary noted in this research, apart from MBL, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 24 February
5 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This research has been prepared for the use of the clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any s or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Macquarie Group does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at 24 February
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AUSTRALIA KCN AU Price (at 6:11, 31 Jul 215 GMT) Underperform A$.67 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).3 12-month target A$.3 12-month TSR % -54.9 Volatility Index Very High GICS
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NEW ZEALAND AIA NZ Price (at 04:00, 27 Nov 2013 GMT) Neutral NZ$3.42 Valuation NZ$ 3.37 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.3%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 3.37 12-month TSR % +2.6 Volatility
More informationOrigin Energy. 4Q Production. ORG reported its 4 th quarter production report, following on ConocoPhilips quarterly result.
AUSTRALIA ORG AU Price (at 06:11, 30 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$11.35 Valuation A$ 12.79 - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 12.89 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility
More informationOz Minerals. Solid start to the year A$5.62 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 6:24, 21 Apr 216 GMT) Underperform A$5.62 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 4.61 12-month target A$ 4.6 12-month TSR % -15.5 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationKaroon Gas. What a difference a day makes A$1.63 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +47.7 Volatility Index High
More informationOrocobre. Upside exposure fading. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Update on projects or Q1 report
AUSTRALIA ORE AU Price (at 5:11, 28 Feb 217 GMT) Neutral A$3.8 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$ 1.34 12-month target A$ 3.17 12-month TSR % +2.9 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationANZ Bank. The Dis-Associates. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 3Q15 Trading Update. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 07:51, 03 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform A$32.46 Valuation - DDM/PE A$ 32.52 12-month target A$ 33.91 12-month TSR % +10.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 89,752
More informationRegis Resources. Strong 1H15 result A$1.29 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA RRL AU Price (at 7:29, 13 2 GMT) Outperform A$1.29 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.68 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +37.2 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationPanAust. Larger impairment and dividend cut A$1.35 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA PNA AU Price (at 7:6, 19 Feb 215 GMT) Outperform A$1.35 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.73 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +25.9 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationPerseus Mining. Revised Sissingué plan A$0.31 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PRU AU Price (at 5:1, 31 Mar 217 GMT) Neutral A$.31 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%).35 12-month target A$.32 12-month TSR % +3.2 Volatility Index Very High GICS sector
More informationKiwi Property Group. Land banking for the future NZ$1.43 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND KPG NZ Price (at 08:19, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform NZ$1.43 Valuation NZ$ 1.53 - DCF (WACC 6.9%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.53 12-month TSR % +11.8 Volatility
More informationSpotless Group Holdings
AUSTRALIA SPO AU Price (at 05:45, 31 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$0.94 Valuation - Peer multiples A$ 1.02 12-month target A$ 1.02 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationGeneration Healthcare REIT
AUSTRALIA GHC AU Price (at 06:13, 24 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.65 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 1.51-1.59 12-month target A$ 1.59 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap
More informationHealthcare. Currency adjustments AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook COH 8.0% RMD 6.9% CSL 6.0% ANN 5.0% SHL 2.6%
AUSTRALIA Recommendations: CSL Outperform P/T: $110.00 RMD Underperform P/T: $7.50 COH Outperform P/T: $100.00 SHL Outperform P/T: $24.00 ANN Outperform P/T: $26.00 RHC Outperform P/T: $75.00 A$ earnings
More informationSuper Retail Group (SUL AU) Are we there yet?
25 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES SUL AU Price (at 09:01, 24 Oct 2018 GMT) Neutral A$8.33 Valuation A$ 8.30-9.50 - EV/EBITA 12-month target A$ 8.70 12-month TSR % +10.9 Volatility Index GICS sector Low/Medium
More informationCarsales.com. Motoring along nicely A$10.23 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CRZ AU Price (at 9:48, 18 Feb 15 GMT) Outperform A$1.23 Valuation A$ 12.59 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.2, ERP 5., RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.) 12-month target A$ 12.3 12-month TSR % +24.1 Volatility Index
More informationCIMIC Group. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Q1 earnings 13 April. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CIM AU Price (at 05:10, 31 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$35.93 Valuation A$ 42.69 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 42.50 12-month TSR % +22.0 Volatility
More informationSingTel. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation. Maintain Outperform.
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 06 Dec 2012 GMT) Outperform A$2.59 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 2.81 12-month TSR % +14.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.81 GICS sector Telecommunication Services
More informationGenworth Mortgage Insurance Australia
AUSTRALIA GMA AU Price (at 07:29, 05 Aug 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.50 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%) 3.52 12-month target A$ 3.47 12-month TSR % +9.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationSandfire Resources. Swings to net cash A$5.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 6:11, 7 Jul 216 GMT) Outperform A$5.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 5.82 12-month target A$ 6.1 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 5:1, 5 Mar 215 GMT) Neutral A$2.29 Valuation A$ 2.6 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.6%) 12-month target A$ 2.6 12-month TSR % +16. Volatility Index High GICS
More informationPilbara Minerals (PLS AU) Ramp-up gaining traction
17 January 219 Australia EQUITIES PLS AU Price (at 5:1, 16 Jan 219 GMT) Outperform A$.7 Valuation A$ 1.11 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 12-month target A$ 1.2 12-month TSR % +72.7 Volatility
More informationEarnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1H14 result in February Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CBA AU Price (at 06:10, 10 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$73.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.5%) 50.40 12-month target A$ 66.15 12-month TSR % -5.0 Volatility Index Low
More informationDowner EDI Two out of three ain t bad Event
AUSTRALIA DOW AU Price (at 06:26, 01 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$6.08 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 5.69-6.38 12-month target A$ 6.40 12-month TSR % +9.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationRyman Healthcare. Arrested development NZ$9.60 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
NEW ZEALAND RYM NZ Price (at 6:, 19 May 216 GMT) Outperform NZ$9.6 Valuation NZ$ 1.5 - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta.8, ERP 7.%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.%) 12-month target NZ$ 11. 12-month TSR % +16.5 Volatility Index Low
More informationIndependence Group NL
AUSTRALIA IGO AU Price (at 12:29, 26 Oct 216 GMT) Outperform A$4.25 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 3.98 12-month target A$ 5. 12-month TSR % +2.2 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 05:00, 28 May 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$6.30 Valuation NZ$ 7.29 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.25 12-month TSR % +17.6 Volatility
More informationAUSTRALIA Price Valuation A$ 7.52 Event 12-month target A$ month TSR % +3.4
AUSTRALIA ILU AU Price (at 05:10, 19 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$7.59 Valuation A$ 7.52 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 3.9%) 12-month target A$ 7.50 12-month TSR % +3.4 Volatility Index
More information3P Learning. Coming to America... A$2.55 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA 3PL AU Price (at 09:19, 02 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.55 Valuation - DCF A$ 2.65-3.35 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +18.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Consumer Services
More informationAustralian Banks. Pre-Reporting Form Guide AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA MRE vs Consensus MQG FY15 Consensus FY15 Date Profit EPS DPS Profit EPS DPS BEN 10-Aug 439 92 67 434 92 67 CBA 12-Aug 9,289 557 420 9,116 554 419 Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, August 2015
More informationSingTel. Optus rises A$3.98 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 12 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.98 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.64-4.73 12-month target A$ 4.69 12-month TSR % +22.4 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Telecommunication
More informationIron Mountain. US$10 worth Recalling at investor day US$31.83 UNITED STATES. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
UNITED STATES IRM US Price (at 20:03, 07 Oct 2015 GMT) Outperform US$31.83 Valuation - DCF (WACC 6.1%) US$ 40.00 12-month target US$ 40.00 12-month TSR % +31.6 GICS sector Real Estate Market cap US$m 6,711
More informationAussie Macro Moment. Budget 16/17 careful consolidation AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA Lower deficits still in train, arriving late - - - /5 /7-5 -5 Jun-9 Jun- Jun Jun-8 Jun Jun Jun- Revenue recovery remains sluggish 7 5 Australian Federal : Underlying Balance ( of GDP) 5/ Spending
More informationSilver Lake Resources
AUSTRALIA SLR AU Price (at 12:42, 27 Jan 215 GMT) Neutral A$.25 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$.23 12-month target A$.23 12-month TSR % -8. Volatility Index Very High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationRamsay Health Care (RHC AU) RHC UK on the mend?
17 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES RHC AU Price (at 05:48, 17 Oct 2018 GMT) Outperform A$54.18 Valuation A$ 68.50 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.7%, TGR 3.7%) 12-month target A$ 68.50 12-month
More informationUGL. Driving growth in DTZ. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 08:17, 03 Sep 2012 GMT) Underperform A$10.52 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 11.08 12-month TSR % +12.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 6.0%, TGR 2.5%) 15.09
More informationOz Minerals. Raises copper production outlook A$9.08 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 7:28, 3 Jan 27 GMT) Neutral A$9.8 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 8.48 2-month target A$ 9.3 2-month TSR % +4.6 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationAMP. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at CLOSE#, 19 Mar 213) Underperform A$5.7 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.99 12-month TSR % +3.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.68 GICS sector Insurance Market cap A$m 14,855
More informationPremier Investments. Making a move? A$14.18 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PMV AU Price (at 09:06, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$14.18 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 17.19 12-month target A$ 17.92 12-month TSR % +30.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Retailing Market
More informationAged Care. Propco sale & lease back A$2.71 A$5.75 A$6.15 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA JHC AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Apr 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.71 Valuation A$ 2.97 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.3%) 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +14.7 Volatility
More informationAustralian Mobile Market
AUSTRALIA Telstra data inclusions on key post-paid plans $130 $130 $95 $70 $55 Optus data inclusions on key post-paid plans "Everyday Connect" "Mobile Accelerate" $50 $40 Vodafone data inclusions on key
More informationKaroon Gas. Losing the deal A$1.83 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.83 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +31.5 Volatility Index High
More informationANZ Bank. What execution risk? Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1Q17 Trading update, February 2017.
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 09:15, 18 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$30.11 Valuation A$ 30.69- - Sum of Parts/GG 31.47 12-month target A$ 31.00 12-month TSR % +8.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationDexus Property Group. Infra driving industrial demand A$9.94 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA DXS AU Price (at 06:10, 06 Apr 2017 GMT) Neutral A$9.94 Valuation - NAV A$ 9.20-9.57 12-month target A$ 9.57 12-month TSR % +1.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 9,621
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 08:23, 03 Jul 2012 GMT) Outperform A$23.68 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 27.66 12-month TSR % +24.9 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 25.14
More informationMonash IVF Group. Share losses compound pain A$1.40 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA MVF AU Price (at 05:10, 25 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$1.40 Valuation A$ 1.80 - DCF (WACC 1.8%, beta 1.1, ERP, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 1.80 12-month TSR % +33.8 Volatility Index
More informationNine Entertainment Co.
AUSTRALIA NEC AU Price (at 06:47, 26 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.03 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.2%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 2.41 12-month target A$ 2.25 12-month TSR % +15.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationAust. General Insurance
AUSTRALIA June 2016 3 mth rolling market results Personal Commercial Market Average Rate Growth -3. -3.6% -3.3% GWP Growth 1.8% -0.8% 0.9% Volume Growth 2.8% 0.8% 2.1% Est. Exposure Value Growth 2. 2.
More informationSaracen Mineral Holdings
AUSTRALIA SAR AU Price (at 5:, Jan 17 GMT) Neutral A$1.11 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 5.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 1.19 12-month target A$ 1. 12-month TSR % +.5 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationNewcrest Mining. Strong production result A$21.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NCM AU Price (at 5:37, 27 Oct 216 GMT) Neutral A$21.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 5.%, beta.8, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 15.8 12-month target A$ 24. 12-month TSR % +13.9 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector
More informationAsaleo Care. NZ$ pulped. We review the outlook for Asaleo. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: CY15 results.
AUSTRALIA AHY AU Price (at 06:10, 16 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$1.80 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 1.90-2.00 12-month target A$ 2.00 12-month TSR % +16.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Household & Personal
More informationCSL. New competitor on the block A$89.68 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 10:28, 20 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$89.68 Valuation A$ 95.47 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.5%) 12-month target A$ 102.00 12-month TSR % +15.7 Volatility
More informationAustralian Banks. Funding markets open for now
AUSTRALIA Weekly performance 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling monthly performance 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling yearly performance % 15% 5% -5%
More informationSandfire Resources. Strong result but guidance light A$6.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 06:37, 29 Jul 20 GMT) Outperform A$6.10 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.0%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 8.02 12-month target A$ 8.00 12-month TSR % +35.8 Volatility Index Medium
More informationAdelaide Brighton. Overcoming headwinds A$5.45 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ABC AU Price (at 09:22, 23 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$5.45 Valuation A$ 6.40 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +2 Volatility Index
More informationAventus Retail Property Fund
AUSTRALIA AVN AU Price (at 06:10, 29 Apr 2016 GMT) A$2.16 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 741 30-day avg turnover A$m 0.7 Number shares on issue m 343.2 Investment fundamentals
More informationDoray Minerals. Mine life upside at Andy Well A$0.44 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA DRM AU Price (at 5:28, 22 Jun 215 GMT) Outperform A$.44 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.9, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).8 12-month target A$.8 12-month TSR % +81.8 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationAustralian Banks. Money Talks vertically challenged AUSTRALIA. Inside. Majors average short positions and banks index
Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun- Dec- AUSTRALIA Repricing generally follows an election s Nov Aug 1 Sep 1 1-1 Source: RBA, Macquarie Research,
More informationIluka Resources. A soft start to FY15 A$7.73 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ILU AU Price (at 06:10, 15 Apr 2015 GMT) Underperform A$7.73 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 6.35 12-month target A$ 6.50 12-month TSR % -12.6 Volatility Index Medium
More informationAUSTRALIA Price Event Valuation A$ month target A$ 5.20
AUSTRALIA VOC AU Price (at 05:10, 22 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$4.81 Valuation A$ 5.02 - DCF (WACC 7.7%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.0%) 12-month target A$ 5.20 12-month TSR % +12.2 Volatility
More informationEvolution Mining. Cowal pushes EVN beyond 800kozpa A$1.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA EVN AU Price (at 3:18, 26 May 215 GMT) Neutral A$1.1 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.11 12-month target A$ 1.1 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationGeneration Healthcare REIT All about spread Event
AUSTRALIA GHC AU Price (at 04:51, 14 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.60 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 1.18-1.26 12-month target A$ 1.59 12-month TSR % +5.1 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap
More informationBHP Billiton. Mad Dog 2 gets FID AUSTRALIA/ UNITED KINGDOM/ SOUTH AFRICA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA/ UNITED KINGDOM/ SOUTH AFRICA BHP AU/BLT LN/BIL SJ Outperform Price (at 12:49, 02 Dec 2016 GMT) A$25.02/ 13.39/R234.60 Valuation A$ 20.74/ 12.25/R217.81 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%,
More informationAustralian Banks. If it s too good to be true AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook. Impact of repricing and capital from additional 10% investor RWA
CBA CBA CBA CBA AUSTRALIA Changes to lending rates (bps) bps Owner Occupier Investor P&I IO P&I IO 0 20 25 36 CBA 3 25 24 26 7 7 25 25 3 8 23 28 BEN 0 0 25 25 Source: Company data, Macquarie research,
More informationInsurance Australia Group
AUSTRALIA IAG AU Price (at CLOSE#, 16 Jun 2015) Underperform A$5.81 Valuation A$ 5.18 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 5.40 12-month TSR % -2.1 Volatility Index
More informationCSL: Global plasma report
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 10:49, 11 Apr 2013 GMT) Outperform A$59.35 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 63.85 12-month TSR % +9.6 Valuation A$ 59.84 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.0%, TGR
More informationWoolworths. Incommunicado A$30.71 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA WOW AU Price (at CLOSE#, 27 Feb 2015) Underperform A$30.71 Valuation A$ 32.90- - Sum of Parts 32.97 12-month target A$ 32.94 12-month TSR % +11.7 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Food & Staples
More information