Australian Banks. Money Talks vertically challenged AUSTRALIA. Inside. Majors average short positions and banks index
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- Jeffry McKenzie
- 5 years ago
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1 Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun- Dec- AUSTRALIA Repricing generally follows an election s Nov Aug 1 Sep Source: RBA, Macquarie Research, April 1 Special TDs vs div yield (grossed up) Source: RBA, Factset, Macquarie Research, April 1 Inside Change in spread Change in investor spread 1 1 Spread Long term average year average Short positions Net retail buying Banks and ASX Net retail buying bank by bank Share register composition Active positions Implied shareholding and movement Money Talks vertically challenged Short positions in the banks are currently at their highest levels since 11. Broader macroeconomic and regulatory concerns coupled with rising impairment charges have resulted in a ~1 decline in bank share-prices and ~ rise in short positions since the beginning of this year. Within the majors, ANZ and WBC have the higher level of short positions, while BEN s short positions are the highest across the banking sector. Should the upcoming results and outlook commentary exceed current relatively bearish expectations, bank share-prices could rebound. We see fundamental value in the sector at current levels and see upside risk in the upcoming banks results relative to perceived negative market sentiment. Further, we believe there is near-term upside risk from additional mortgage repricing after the July 1 Federal elections. Majors average short positions and banks index Source: ASIC, IRESS, Company data, Macquarie Research, April 1 We also analysed retail buying activity, given this segment represent ~ of banks registries. As the figure below highlights, retail investors remained the net buyers of banks in the first quarter. It appears that retail investors generally maintained their strategy of buying the dips. In that sense we continue to expect to see support from retail investors, especially while dividend yield support remains. Banks net buying by retail investors Index,,,,, 1,. 11, Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-1 Sep-1 Mar-1 Sep-1 Mar-1 Sep-1 Mar- Sep- Mar-1 Majors Short Interests Bank Index (RHS) Index 11 1 April 1 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited - Mar-11 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar- Mar-1 Net buying - all banks (LHS) Banks Index (RHS) Source: Company data, Factset, IRESS, Macquarie Research, April 1 Please refer to page 11 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
2 Short positions The following figures summarise short positions across the banks. We note that the overall level of short positions in the majors increased sharply in February. This increase was initially driven by a rise in short positions in NAB (from low levels) in late Jan and CBA in early Feb. ANZ and WBC saw their short positions increasing progressively since February and are still trending upwards. In recent weeks CBA s short interest has been unwound and is ~s below the February peak. Across the regionals, short positions in BEN have been increasing since Nov- and currently stand at near peak levels (~). Short positions in BOQ are currently at a similar level (~) and have been somewhat volatile in recent months after peaking in Oct-. Both remain elevated relative to the majors (- active short positions). Short interests in the majors have moderated around the mark in recent months. This has been sparked by recent concerns around asset quality. The previous peak in H was reached following the various capital raisings by each of the majors before these were subsequently unwound into the end of the calendar year Fig 1 Majors average short positions and banks index Index.,.,, 1., 1.,. 1,. 11, Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-1 Sep-1 Mar-1 Sep-1 Mar-1 Sep-1 Mar- Sep- Mar-1 Majors Short Interests Bank Index (RHS) Source: ASIC, IRESS, Company data, Macquarie Research, April 1 Fig ANZ short positions and share price Fig CBA short positions and share price ANZ Short Interests CBA Short Interests Source: ASIC, IRESS, Company data, Macquarie Research, April 1 Source: ASIC, IRESS, Company data, Macquarie Research, April 1 April 1
3 Fig NAB short positions and share price Fig WBC short positions and share price NAB Short Interests WBC Short Interests Source: ASIC, IRESS, Company data, Macquarie Research, April 1 Source: ASIC, IRESS, Company data, Macquarie Research, April 1 Fig BEN short positions and share price Fig BOQ short positions and share price BEN Short Interests BOQ Short Interests Source: ASIC, IRESS, Company data, Macquarie Research, April 1 Source: ASIC, IRESS, Company data, Macquarie Research, April 1 April 1
4 Net retail buying Banks and ASX We analysed retail buying activity, given this segment represents ~ of banks registries. As the figure below highlights, retail investors remained the net buyers of banks in the first quarter. It appears that retail investors generally maintained their strategy of buying the dips. Our share trading data suggests that retail investors had the first meaningful net reduction in holdings of bank shares and the broader market after several months of being net buyers in March as prices began to recover. Fig Banks net buying by retail investors Retail investors were the net buyers for the first two months of the year. This was partially reversed in the final month of the quarter as bank share prices recovered Index Mar-11 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar- Mar-1 Net buying - all banks (LHS) Banks Index (RHS) Source: Company data, Factset, IRESS, Macquarie Research, April 1 Fig S&P/ASX net buying by retail investors Similar trends existed when looking at the entire market, although retail selling in March almost completely neutralised the net buying activity in the first two months of 1. This was the first month of meaningful retail portfolio reductions since Feb-. Index Mar-11 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar- Mar-1 Net buying - all retail (LHS) ASX Index (RHS) Source: Company data, Factset, IRESS, Macquarie Research, April 1 April 1
5 Net retail buying bank by bank In this section we look at the net buying of retail investors on a stock-by-stock basis. We utilised trading data from three retail brokers (CommSec, Macquarie Retail and E-Trade). We calculate net buying from these brokers as a percentage of the market cap of the stock. We note there is a series break in Jan-1, as we excluded CommSec prior to this date (due to the institutional activity incorporated in the historical numbers). Key takeaways for the most recent quarter include: Retail investors were net buyers of ANZ, CBA and NAB for the quarter, with this being partially offset for CBA in March. WBC saw net selling over the period with two flat months followed by a reduction in March. Both the regional banks saw net buying from retail investors around their profit downgrades, suggesting retail investors were buying the recent weakness. Interestingly, we saw retail investors selling their CYB holdings in the months following the demerger from NAB. Fig 1 Retail net-buy (ANZ) Fig 11 Retail net-buy (CBA) Mar-11 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar- Mar Mar-11 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar- Mar-1 Net buying - ANZ Net buying - CBA Note: Series break in January 1 (CommSec excluded in prior periods) Source: Company data, Factset, IRESS, Macquarie Research, April 1 Note: Series break in January 1 (CommSec excluded in prior periods) Source: Company data, Factset, IRESS, Macquarie Research, April 1 Fig 1 Retail net-buy (NAB) Fig 1 Retail net-buy (WBC) Mar-11 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar- Mar Mar-11 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar- Mar-1 Net buying - NAB Net buying - WBC Note: Series break in January 1 (CommSec excluded in prior periods) Source: Company data, Factset, IRESS, Macquarie Research, April 1 Note: Series break in January 1 (CommSec excluded in prior periods) Source: Company data, Factset, IRESS, Macquarie Research, April 1 April 1
6 Fig 1 Retail net-buy (BEN) Fig Retail net-buy (BOQ) Mar-11 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar- Mar-1 - Mar-11 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar- Mar-1 Net buying - BEN Net buying - BOQ Note: Series break in January 1 (CommSec excluded in prior periods) Source: Company data, Factset, IRESS, Macquarie Research, April 1 Note: Series break in January 1 (CommSec excluded in prior periods) Source: Company data, Factset, IRESS, Macquarie Research, April 1 Fig 1 Retail net-buy (MYS) Fig 1 Retail net-buy (ABA) Mar-11 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar- Mar Mar-11 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar- Mar-1 Net buying - MYS Net buying - ABA Note: Series break in January 1 (CommSec excluded in prior periods) Source: Company data, Factset, IRESS, Macquarie Research, April 1 Note: Series break in January 1 (CommSec excluded in prior periods) Source: Company data, Factset, IRESS, Macquarie Research, April 1 Fig 1 Retail net-buy (MOC) Fig 1 Retail net-buy (CYB) Mar-11 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar- Mar Mar-11 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar- Mar-1 Net buying - MOC Net buying - CYB Note: Series break in January 1 (CommSec excluded in prior periods) Source: Company data, Factset, IRESS, Macquarie Research, April 1 Source: Company data, Factset, IRESS, Macquarie Research, April 1 April 1
7 Share register composition The section below focuses on the share registry data of the banks sector. While we note there are limitations in this data set and its comparability across banks is hence also limited (particularly across the various investor groups), we see it as a reasonable proxy for investor activity. Fig Share register retail proportion The retail proportion of shareholders at CBA and WBC has been declining in recent months, whilst ANZ and NAB have seen their proportion of retail shareholders increase Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 1 Fig 1 Share register domestic institutional proportion Conversely the proportion of domestic insto investors at CBA and WBC have been increasing while ANZ and NAB s proportion has been decreasing Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 1 Fig Share register offshore proportion The proportion of offshore investors across the sector have been decreasing in recent months with the exception of WBC, which has remained broadly stable 1 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 1 April 1
8 Active positions In this section we focus on relative active positions within the sector. We note this analysis doesn t show active weights relative to the index but rather investors relative positions within the banking sector (ie within retail banking portfolios, investors are overweight CBA and underweight ANZ). Looking at active weights, retail investors appear overweight CBA and underweight the other three majors, with the largest underweight bank being ANZ. Fig Active position retail Source: Company data, Factset, Macquarie Research, April 1 Fig Active position domestic institutional Domestic institutional investors are now most overweight in WBC followed closely by NAB, with the largest underweight position in CBA Source: Company data, Factset, Macquarie Research, April 1 Fig Active position offshore Offshore investors appear relatively overweight in ANZ and underweight CBA. NAB and WBC appear broadly neutral Source: Company data, Factset, Macquarie Research, April 1 April 1
9 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar-1 Macquarie Wealth Management Implied shareholding and movement The figures below summarise relative movement in shares over the last 1 months. Based on this data, in 1Q1: Domestic institutional investors were net buyers across the sector (excluding CBA). WBC remained the preferred exposure across the domestic funding. Offshore investors were net sellers of the domestic banks. When this is combined with the short positions, which we understand are also largely offshore driven, it appears that the recent sell-off was largely driven by offshore investors. Fig Domestic inst. implied shareholding Fig Domestic inst. quarterly share movement 1,1 1, Q1 Q1 Q1 1Q Q Q Q 1Q1 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 1 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 1 Fig Offshore implied shareholding Fig Offshore quarterly share movement Q1 Q1 Q1 1Q Q Q Q 1Q1 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 1 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 1 April 1
10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar-1 Macquarie Wealth Management Fig Retail implied shareholding Fig 1 Retail quarterly share movement 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,1 1, Q1 Q1 Q1 1Q Q Q Q 1Q1 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 1 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 1 Stocks mentioned ANZ Bank (ANZ AU, A., Outperform, TP: A.) Commonwealth Bank (CBA AU, A., Neutral, TP: A.) National Australia Bank (NAB AU, A., Outperform, TP: A.) Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC AU, A1., Neutral, TP: A.) Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN AU, A.1, Neutral, TP: A.) Bank of Queensland (BOQ AU, A1., Neutral, TP: A1.) MyState (MYS AU, A., Neutral, TP: A.) Auswide Bank (ABA AU, A.1, Neutral, TP: A.) Mortgage Choice (MOC AU, A1., Outperform, TP: A.) Clydesdale (CYB AU, A., Outperform, TP: A.) April 1 1
11 Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return > in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within of benchmark return Underperform return > below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 1 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+1 Neutral expected return from -1 to +1 Underperform expected return <-1 Macquarie South Africa Outperform expected return >+1 Neutral expected return from -1 to +1 Underperform expected return <-1 Macquarie - Canada Outperform return > in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within of benchmark return Underperform return > below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return > in excess of Russell index return Neutral (Hold) return within of Russell index return Underperform (Sell) return > below Russell index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down 1 in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 1 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 1 March 1 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform (for global coverage by Macquarie,. of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral (for global coverage by Macquarie,. of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform (for global coverage by Macquarie,.1 of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Company-specific disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Limited (MGL) total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group s Investment Banking activities. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited ABN 1, AFSL, a Participant of the ASX and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Wealth Management, a division of Macquarie Equities Limited ABN 1 AFSL ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN, AFSL No. ) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1. Apart from Macquarie Bank Limited ABN (MBL), any MGL subsidiary noted in this research,, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research contains general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. 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AUSTRALIA TOX AU Price (at 05:10, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$2.34 Valuation - EV/EBITDA A$ 2.52-3.07 12-month target A$ 2.79 12-month TSR % +23.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
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AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 09:15, 18 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$30.11 Valuation A$ 30.69- - Sum of Parts/GG 31.47 12-month target A$ 31.00 12-month TSR % +8.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationRamsay Health Care. France begins to bite A$66.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA RHC AU Price (at 06:11, 06 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$66.37 Valuation A$ 64.54 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 70.00 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationCardno. Tough half over A$2.88 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CDD AU Price (at 04:53, 17 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$2.88 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.80-3.43 12-month target A$ 3.12 12-month TSR % +18.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market
More informationCochlear. Roberts replaced A$88.66 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA COH AU Price (at 06:47, 26 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$88.66 Valuation A$ 81.19 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 95.00 12-month TSR % +9.8 Volatility
More informationWhitehaven Coal. China outlook drives impairments A$1.04 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA WHC AU Price (at 06:10, 13 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.04 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 1.18 12-month target A$ 1.15 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationOz Minerals. On track to meet guidance A$6.51 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 08:20, 22 Jul 2016 GMT) Underperform A$6.51 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 4.31 12-month target A$ 5.00 12-month TSR % -21.4 Volatility Index High
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 05:00, 10 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$7.03 Valuation NZ$ 7.39 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.80 12-month TSR % +13.1 Volatility
More informationSirtex Medical. Healthy dose sales. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: FY16 result on the 24th of August
AUSTRALIA SRX AU Price (at CLOSE#, 11 Jul 2016) Outperform A$27.88 Valuation A$ 37.93 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.5%) 12-month target A$ 38.00 12-month TSR % +37.4 Volatility
More informationAventus Retail Property Fund
AUSTRALIA AVN AU Price (at 06:10, 29 Apr 2016 GMT) A$2.16 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 741 30-day avg turnover A$m 0.7 Number shares on issue m 343.2 Investment fundamentals
More informationANZ Bank. The Dis-Associates. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 3Q15 Trading Update. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 07:51, 03 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform A$32.46 Valuation - DDM/PE A$ 32.52 12-month target A$ 33.91 12-month TSR % +10.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 89,752
More informationSouthern Cross Media. Streamlining ahead of reform? A$1.37 AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA SXL AU Price (at 05:10, 27 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$1.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 1.39 12-month target A$ 1.30 12-month TSR % +0.8 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationKingsgate Consolidated
AUSTRALIA KCN AU Price (at 6:11, 31 Jul 215 GMT) Underperform A$.67 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).3 12-month target A$.3 12-month TSR % -54.9 Volatility Index Very High GICS
More informationSpotless Group Holdings
AUSTRALIA SPO AU Price (at 05:45, 31 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$0.94 Valuation - Peer multiples A$ 1.02 12-month target A$ 1.02 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationSuper Retail Group (SUL AU) Are we there yet?
25 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES SUL AU Price (at 09:01, 24 Oct 2018 GMT) Neutral A$8.33 Valuation A$ 8.30-9.50 - EV/EBITA 12-month target A$ 8.70 12-month TSR % +10.9 Volatility Index GICS sector Low/Medium
More informationCoca-Cola Amatil. Not as fizzy as it looks A$8.78 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA CCL AU Price (at CLOSE#, 21 Aug 2015) Underperform A$8.78 Valuation A$ 8.47 - DCF (WACC 8.7%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.9%) 12-month target A$ 8.99 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationBendigo and Adelaide Bank
AUSTRALIA BEN AU Price (at CLOSE#, 17 Aug 2012) Neutral A$8.69 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 9.28 12-month TSR % +14.0 Valuation - DCF (WACC 12.1%) A$ 8.28 GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 3,447
More informationOrigin Energy. 4Q Production. ORG reported its 4 th quarter production report, following on ConocoPhilips quarterly result.
AUSTRALIA ORG AU Price (at 06:11, 30 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$11.35 Valuation A$ 12.79 - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 12.89 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility
More informationSenex Energy Production and revenue unsurprised, cash builds on lower capex
26 April 2018 Australia EQUITIES SXY AU Price (at 06:10, 26 Apr 2018 GMT) Outperform A$0.42 Valuation A$ 0.49 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 4.0%, RFR 4.3%) 12-month target A$ 0.50 12-month TSR % +19.0
More informationMeridian Energy. On tax depreciation NZ$2.08 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
NEW ZEALAND MEL NZ Price (at 05:00, 13 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$2.08 Valuation NZ$ 2.50 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 2.60 12-month TSR % +31.7 Volatility
More informationGenworth Mortgage Insurance Australia
AUSTRALIA GMA AU Price (at 07:29, 05 Aug 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.50 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%) 3.52 12-month target A$ 3.47 12-month TSR % +9.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationUGL. Driving growth in DTZ. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 08:17, 03 Sep 2012 GMT) Underperform A$10.52 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 11.08 12-month TSR % +12.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 6.0%, TGR 2.5%) 15.09
More informationIron Mountain. US$10 worth Recalling at investor day US$31.83 UNITED STATES. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
UNITED STATES IRM US Price (at 20:03, 07 Oct 2015 GMT) Outperform US$31.83 Valuation - DCF (WACC 6.1%) US$ 40.00 12-month target US$ 40.00 12-month TSR % +31.6 GICS sector Real Estate Market cap US$m 6,711
More informationOz Minerals. Solid start to the year A$5.62 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 6:24, 21 Apr 216 GMT) Underperform A$5.62 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 4.61 12-month target A$ 4.6 12-month TSR % -15.5 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationTelstra Corporation. Vodafone better, but far from good A$6.43 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 11:23, 21 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$6.43 Valuation A$ 6.37 - DCF (WACC 6.8%, beta 0.8, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.2%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +3.3 Volatility Index
More informationKaroon Gas. What a difference a day makes A$1.63 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +47.7 Volatility Index High
More informationOrocobre. Upside exposure fading. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Update on projects or Q1 report
AUSTRALIA ORE AU Price (at 5:11, 28 Feb 217 GMT) Neutral A$3.8 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$ 1.34 12-month target A$ 3.17 12-month TSR % +2.9 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationNuplex Industries. Should benefit from a weak Kiwi NZ$4.55 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND NPX NZ Price (at 05:00, 31 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.55 Valuation NZ$ 4.40 - DCF (WACC 12.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility
More informationPanAust. Larger impairment and dividend cut A$1.35 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA PNA AU Price (at 7:6, 19 Feb 215 GMT) Outperform A$1.35 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.73 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +25.9 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationBillabong International
AUSTRALIA BBG AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Aug 2012 GMT) A$1.35 Volatility index Very High GICS sector Consumer Durables & Apparel Market cap A$m 644 30-day avg turnover A$m 4.4 Number shares on issue m 478.9
More informationAustralian Banks. Banking s golden goose AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 AUSTRALIA Banking s golden goose Event Investor lending growth estimates. 8. 6. 4. 2. - Implied credit growth from new flow
More informationJB Hi-Fi & Harvey Norman
AUSTRALIA HVN AU Price (at 06:10, 09 Sep 2015 GMT) Underperform A$3.96 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ 4.16-4.56 12-month target A$ 4.36 12-month TSR % +12.0 Volatility Index Low Market cap A$m 4,523 30-day avg
More informationAustal. Retail take up 62% Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ASB AU Price (at 01:41, 02 Jan 2013 GMT) A$0.58 Volatility index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market cap A$m 201 30-day avg turnover A$m 0.3 Number shares on issue m 346.0 Investment fundamentals
More informationAged Care. Propco sale & lease back A$2.71 A$5.75 A$6.15 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA JHC AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Apr 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.71 Valuation A$ 2.97 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.3%) 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +14.7 Volatility
More informationFund Managers. Aust. Fund managers review & rank AUSTRALIA. Event. Stock Views
AUSTRALIA 4 February 2016 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Aust. Fund managers review & rank Event We review and rank the listed Australian under Macquarie Securities coverage, assessing fund performance,
More informationPerseus Mining. Revised Sissingué plan A$0.31 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PRU AU Price (at 5:1, 31 Mar 217 GMT) Neutral A$.31 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%).35 12-month target A$.32 12-month TSR % +3.2 Volatility Index Very High GICS sector
More informationGeneration Healthcare REIT All about spread Event
AUSTRALIA GHC AU Price (at 04:51, 14 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.60 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 1.18-1.26 12-month target A$ 1.59 12-month TSR % +5.1 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap
More informationAustralia without mining
AUSTRALIA What would happen if iron ore spot prices remained at current levels? USD/tonne 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 Iron ore Spot Price 5 Aug-9 Oct-1 Dec-11 Feb-13 Source; ABS, Macquarie Research, September 1
More informationSingTel. Optus rises A$3.98 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 12 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.98 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.64-4.73 12-month target A$ 4.69 12-month TSR % +22.4 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Telecommunication
More informationNEW ZEALAND Price Valuation NZ$ 1.74 Event 12-month target NZ$ month TSR % -10.1
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 05:06, 24 Feb 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$2.20 Valuation NZ$ 1.74 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.82 12-month TSR % -10.1 Volatility
More informationSandfire Resources. Swings to net cash A$5.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 6:11, 7 Jul 216 GMT) Outperform A$5.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 5.82 12-month target A$ 6.1 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationKiwi Property Group. Land banking for the future NZ$1.43 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND KPG NZ Price (at 08:19, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform NZ$1.43 Valuation NZ$ 1.53 - DCF (WACC 6.9%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.53 12-month TSR % +11.8 Volatility
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 05:32, 30 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform A$38.32 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.3%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 38.97 12-month target A$ 40.58 12-month TSR % +11.1 Volatility Index Low
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 5:1, 5 Mar 215 GMT) Neutral A$2.29 Valuation A$ 2.6 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.6%) 12-month target A$ 2.6 12-month TSR % +16. Volatility Index High GICS
More informationCommodities Comment. Xiongan A new city with new metals demand GLOBAL. Feature article. Latest news
GLOBAL LME cash price % change US$/tonne day on day Aluminium 1,940-0.4 Copper 5,827-0.7 Lead 2,285-0.7 Nickel 10,019-2.1 Tin 20,368 1.1 Zinc 2,701-1.8 Cobalt 55,750-0.9 Molybdenum 14,900 0.0 Other prices
More informationANZ Bank. Sticking with Super Regional A$27.52 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 09:49, 01 Oct 2015 GMT) Neutral A$27.52 Valuation - DDM/PE A$ 32.74 12-month target A$ 34.15 12-month TSR % +30.6 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 79,891
More informationThe Carbon Tax. Macquarie Funds Group. Implications for the Economy AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook. 11 July 2011
AUSTRALIA Consumers are very aware of something happening with tax %* Consumer confidence - News Recall Index %* (ann avg) 35 30 25 15 10 5 0 Mar-86 Mar-91 Mar-96 Mar-01 Mar-06 Mar-11 *% of respondants
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 03:59, 16 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$6.63 Valuation NZ$ 6.86 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.25 12-month TSR % +11.6 Volatility
More informationTatts Group. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation. Maintain Underperform on valuation grounds.
AUSTRALIA TTS AU Price (at 8:37, 23 Aug 212 GMT) Underperform A$2.79 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 2.45 12-month TSR % -6.8 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.4-2.47 GICS sector Consumer Services
More informationDexus Property Group. Infra driving industrial demand A$9.94 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA DXS AU Price (at 06:10, 06 Apr 2017 GMT) Neutral A$9.94 Valuation - NAV A$ 9.20-9.57 12-month target A$ 9.57 12-month TSR % +1.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 9,621
More informationRegis Resources. Strong 1H15 result A$1.29 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA RRL AU Price (at 7:29, 13 2 GMT) Outperform A$1.29 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.68 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +37.2 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationCarsales.com. Motoring along nicely A$10.23 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CRZ AU Price (at 9:48, 18 Feb 15 GMT) Outperform A$1.23 Valuation A$ 12.59 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.2, ERP 5., RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.) 12-month target A$ 12.3 12-month TSR % +24.1 Volatility Index
More informationCommodities Comment. PGM cost curve another difficult year for S. African miners GLOBAL. Feature article. Latest news
GLOBAL LME cash price % change US$/tonne day on day Aluminium 1,921-0.4 Copper 5,737-0.7 Lead 2,285-2.5 Nickel 9,703-1.1 Tin 19,520-1.8 Zinc 2,742-2.5 Cobalt 53,750 0.0 Molybdenum 14,899 0.0 Other prices
More informationDowner EDI Two out of three ain t bad Event
AUSTRALIA DOW AU Price (at 06:26, 01 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$6.08 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 5.69-6.38 12-month target A$ 6.40 12-month TSR % +9.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationCIMIC Group. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Q1 earnings 13 April. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CIM AU Price (at 05:10, 31 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$35.93 Valuation A$ 42.69 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 42.50 12-month TSR % +22.0 Volatility
More informationEuropean and UK economics
EUROPE/UNITED KINGDOM To all intents and purposes the Euro area is in recession QoQ % Euro area GDP QoQ (LHS) YoY % Euro area GDP YoY (RHS) 6 3 1-1 - - - -3 Jun Jun 3 Jun 6 Jun 9 Jun 1 Source: Eurostat,
More informationRamsay Health Care (RHC AU) RHC UK on the mend?
17 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES RHC AU Price (at 05:48, 17 Oct 2018 GMT) Outperform A$54.18 Valuation A$ 68.50 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.7%, TGR 3.7%) 12-month target A$ 68.50 12-month
More informationPilbara Minerals (PLS AU) Ramp-up gaining traction
17 January 219 Australia EQUITIES PLS AU Price (at 5:1, 16 Jan 219 GMT) Outperform A$.7 Valuation A$ 1.11 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 12-month target A$ 1.2 12-month TSR % +72.7 Volatility
More information3P Learning. Coming to America... A$2.55 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA 3PL AU Price (at 09:19, 02 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.55 Valuation - DCF A$ 2.65-3.35 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +18.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Consumer Services
More informationOz Minerals. Raises copper production outlook A$9.08 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 7:28, 3 Jan 27 GMT) Neutral A$9.8 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 8.48 2-month target A$ 9.3 2-month TSR % +4.6 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationCommodities Comment. China Copper Survey: Demand picking up, sentiment remains positive GLOBAL. Feature article. Latest news
GLOBAL LME cash price % change US$/tonne day on day Aluminium 1,914.2 Copper 5,748-1.8 Lead 2,27.2 Nickel,97 -.1 Tin 2,495. Zinc 2,89-1.2 Cobalt 52,75. Molybdenum 14,9. Other prices % change day on day
More informationCommodities Comment. Chinese steel sentiment extremely positive ahead of peak season GLOBAL. Feature article. Latest news
GLOBAL LME cash price % change US$/tonne day on day Aluminium 1,875 -.7 Copper 6,46 -.2 Lead 2,256-2. Nickel,799-2.7 Tin 19,756 -.5 Zinc 2,873 -.5 Cobalt 47,7. Molybdenum 14,898. Other prices % change
More informationPremier Investments. Making a move? A$14.18 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PMV AU Price (at 09:06, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$14.18 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 17.19 12-month target A$ 17.92 12-month TSR % +30.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Retailing Market
More informationCSL: Global plasma report
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 10:49, 11 Apr 2013 GMT) Outperform A$59.35 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 63.85 12-month TSR % +9.6 Valuation A$ 59.84 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.0%, TGR
More informationSilver Lake Resources
AUSTRALIA SLR AU Price (at 12:42, 27 Jan 215 GMT) Neutral A$.25 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$.23 12-month target A$.23 12-month TSR % -8. Volatility Index Very High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationThe quiet achiever. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: July building approvals 30 August. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ABC AU Price (at 08:02, 16 Aug 2012 GMT) Outperform A$2.90 Volatility index Low/Medium 12-month target A$ 3.10 12-month TSR % +13.0 Valuation A$ 3.18 - DCF (WACC 10.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 4.5%, RFR
More informationGenesis Energy. A 9% FCF yield and you call underperform? NZ$1.71 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 06:49, 29 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$1.71 Valuation NZ$ 1.60 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.65 12-month TSR % +6.1 Volatility
More information