National Australia Bank
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- Berniece Bradley
- 5 years ago
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1 AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 05:32, 30 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform A$38.32 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.3%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) month target A$ month TSR % Volatility Index Low GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 92, day avg turnover A$m Number shares on issue m 2,421 Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Sep 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Net interest Inc m 13,775 14,157 15,097 15,964 Non interest Inc m 5,138 4,947 5,192 5,407 Underlying profit m 8,733 10,163 11,030 11,936 Reported profit m 5,295 6,665 7,342 7,958 Adjusted profit m 5,184 6,485 7,162 7,778 EPS adj EPS adj growth % PER adj x PER rel x Total DPS Total div yield % Franking % ROA % ROE % Equity to assets % P/BV x NAB AU vs ASX 100, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2015 (all figures in AUD unless noted) A Different Species Event Recent press speculation has suggested the potential for NAB to separate out NAB UK via an in-specie distribution. This is a surprisingly common move in the Australian market and historically has been value creating, particularly in the case of HGG/AMP. Impact Recent press speculation has suggested an in-specie distribution as an option to fulfil the new CEO s goal of exiting the UK - There has been recent press speculation surrounding the potential for NAB to divest of Clydesdale bank through an in-specie distribution (Thorburn closes in on MLC Clydesdale Action Plan, SMH March 1). An in-specie distribution is one where existing shareholders receive stock in the division to be carved out. An in-specie distribution is a common way of separating out non-core assets in the Australian market There have been several instances of inspecie distributions over the last 10 years or so. Notable transactions include AMP/HGG, WOW/SCP and TOL/VAH. A common theme of these transactions was the need for the Headstock to focus on its core business. In some but not all cases, the new entity/headstock raised capital (either to fund acquisition of assets from the Headstock or to generally bolster equity reserves). There was a variety of tax treatments as well. Historically share price performance post an in-specie distribution has been value creating Interestingly in most cases, the head and divested stock (or a synthetic combination of the two) outperformed a month after the separation by 0-20%+. We believe this to be the case for a variety of reasons including greater disclosure/focus from management on the separate entities as well as the tendency of the market to over-react/over-reflect the drag of a troubled business unit in the Headstock s share price. Earnings and target price revision No changes. Price catalyst 12-month price target: A$40.58 based on a DDM/PE methodology. Catalyst: 1H15 results, May 7. Action and recommendation Reiterate Outperform rating. 30 March 2015 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Please refer to page 8 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
2 Analysis There has been recent press speculation surrounding the potential for NAB to divest of Clydesdale bank through an in-specie distribution (Thorburn closes in on MLC Clydesdale Action Plan, SMH March 1). In this note we explore this option in further detail. In specie distributions have been successfully undertaken by numerous Australian companies Mechanically, an in-specie distribution involves existing shareholders receiving a share in the company being disposed of (subject to shareholder approval). In NAB s case, this would involve NAB group shareholders receiving a share in the newly listed Clydesdale. In-specie distributions are not uncommon in Australia and have been undertaken by a number of large Australian companies over the last 10 years including AMP, WOW and TOL. Another high profile in-specie distribution that is expected in 2015 is BHP Billiton s in-specie distribution of some of its Southern Hemisphere assets (aluminium, coal, manganese, nickel and silver) to a new company, South32. BHP shareholders will receive a new share in South32 for every share in BHP Billiton held. The table below examines a number of recent Australian in-specie distributions and the treatment and impact to the company and shareholders. Fig 1 In specie distributions are not uncommon, with widely held stocks having previously taken this approach AMP - Henderson (HGG) Woolworths (WOW) - SCA Property Group (SCP) Toll Holdings (TOL) - Virgin Blue (VAH) Date 23-Dec Nov Aug-08 Distribution Receive 1 HGG share for every 1 AMP share Receive 1 SCP share for every 5 WOW Receive 1 VAH share for every 1 TOL held. shares held. share held. Treatment The following occurred post the AMP Demerger: % of AMP shares were cancelled and a cancellation entitlement of $5.91 for each share cancelled. - The remaining AMP shares were then split to obtain the same number of AMP shares after the demerger as before, and The transaction was treated as WOW: - paying a fully franked dividend (dividend amount) equal to 49.3% of the SCP stapled unit volume weighted average price (VWAP); and - making a capital return (capital return amount) equal to 50.7% of the SCP stapled unit VWAP The impact on TOL shareholders was as follows: - Dividend is not assessable income - Value of current cost base to be allocated between TOL and VAH - Eligible shareholders may access Share Sale and Purchase facility - Received shares in HGG equal to the number of AMP shares previously owned before the demerger the cancellation entitlement was applied as payment for these shares. Capital Management HGG raised 100m in conjunction with the stock market listing; AMP undertook a AU$1.5bn capital raising following a $2.6bn write-down Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2015 SCA undertook a public offering, raising $472m to partially fund the acquisition of the portfolio on the date of listing (26 Nov 12) None Share price performance of previous in-specie distributions taken Below we examine the relative share price reaction around the time of the in-specie distribution occurring. AMP/ HGG AMP (A$6.36, UP, TP: A$5.90) and Henderson (HGG AU, A$5.40, OP, TP: A$6.50) saw positive share price performance post divestment - AMP saw strong share price outperformance when AMP traded ex-hgg entitlement (+11% relative outperformance from 3 weeks before the listing to 1 month post). Henderson shares had a strong debut, increasing 22% in the month post listing (17% on a relative basis). 30 March
3 1/12/2003 3/12/2003 5/12/2003 7/12/2003 9/12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/2003 2/01/2004 4/01/2004 6/01/2004 8/01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/2004 Macquarie Wealth Management Fig 2 AMP shares saw strong performance post the demerger from Henderson /12/03 - AMP shares traded ex entitlement to HGG shares AMP HGG (LHS) Source: Factset, Macquarie research, March 2015 Examining the synthetic value of the combined entity, we can see that there was an increase in value in the month post the demerger. We have adjusted for the AMP rights issue of $1.2bn and Henderson capital raising in conjunction with the merger of $532m ( 190m). Fig 3 Synthetically combined market cap grew 47% ex rights issue and capital raising $m AMP HGG Combined Mkt Cap Pre De-merger 8,561 8,561 Mkt Cap 1mth Post De-merger 8,710 5,595 14,305 AMP Rights Issue 1,200 HGG Capital Raising 532 Adjusted Mkt Cap 7,510 5,063 12,573 Growth in Mkt Cap 46.9% ASX Growth 4.0% Relative Outperformance 42.9% Source: Factset, Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2015 TOL/VAH TOL (A$8.87, N, TP: A$9.04) and VAH (A$0.51, N, TP: A$0.50) both outperformed post the divestment - Examining the TOL and VAH divestment, we can see that TOL and VAH outperformed relative to the market post the announcement. Fig 4 Relative outperformance at TOL and VAH 1mth post announcement and distribution 1mth post announcement and distribution TOL 19.2% VAH 95.8% Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, March 2015 TOL outperformed on the day the divestment was announced with both companies performing strongly post the announcement. 30 March
4 Fig 5 TOL and VAH outperformed relative to the market post the distribution and announcement /7/08 - shares in TOL trade ex VAH distribution TOL saw a favourable share price reaction post the announcement of the VAH disposal TOL - Outperformed mkt by 19% in month post disposal announcement VAH - Outperformed mkt by 95% in month post disposal announcement TOL VAH (RHS) Source: Factset, Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2015 WOW/SCP Woolworths (A$29.48, UP, TP: A$32.94) and SCA Property Group (A$2.03, UP, TP: A$1.69) saw mixed share price performance Woolworths underperformed following the announcement of the SCP distribution, but did see a rally in the two weeks prior to the ex distribution date, before tracking sideways again in the subsequent month. Relative to the market, WOW experienced 2.4% of underperformance from the SCP listing date to one month following the demerger. SCP on the other hand outperformed the market by 1.4% over the same period. Fig 6 Mixed share price performance for WOW, with SCP experiencing Outperformance WOW shares rallied into the exdate after Underperforming following the announcement 30/11/12 - WOW shares trade ex SCP distribution WOW SCP (RHS) Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, March 2015 Examining the synthetically combined market capitalisation of WOW and SCP we saw underperformance of 1.8% relative to the market in the month following the demerger, driven primarily by WOW. 30 March
5 Fig 7 Synthetically combined market cap underperformed the market by 1.8% in the month following the demerger WOW SCP Combined Mkt Cap on demerger date 35, ,992 Mkt Cap 1mth post Demerger 36, ,325 Growth in Mkt Cap 3.7% ASX Growth 5.5% Relative performance -1.8% Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, March 2015 In summary, it can be seen that the share price reaction has been generally favourable post an inspecie distribution. An in-specie distribution provides shareholders with the optionality to choose whether they want to continue to invest in the asset being divested There are a number of advantages and disadvantages to undertaking an in-specie distribution. The table below highlights each of these. Fig 8 In-specie distribution can be undertaken quickly and give investors choice on whether they want new co exposure Advantages Provides existing company shareholders with optionality to choose whether they want to continue to have exposure to new company Can provide a more timely approach for asset divestment Investors in new company will be familiar with the stock Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2015 Disadvantages May not be able to find likely on-sellers of new stock (was not an issue however at HGG) Could be costly to carry out an in-specie distribution (cost to AMP/HGG was A$214m) Risk of capital raising before listing (AMP/HGG) We discuss these in further detail below. Provides optionality - An in-specie distribution is also beneficial to shareholders as it gives them optionality to choose whether they want to continue to have exposure to the newly separated company. Post the distribution, it will also allow investors to only invest in the group or in the new entity if they choose. Relative timely - An in-specie distribution could be favourable as it would provide the company with a relatively timely disposal (compared to other potential disposal options available) given that they would be in control of when the distribution occurs (subject to shareholder approval of the distribution). Fig 9 In-specie distributions can be relatively timely Announced Occurred (date Headco traded ex new co) Months Post Announcement AMP 2/05/ /12/ TOL 14/07/ /07/ WOW 5/10/ /11/ Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2015 New investors will be familiar with the stock Another benefit to a company utilizing an inspecie distribution method is that the investors in the newly listed company will be familiar with the stock. AMP undertook a capital raising in conjunction with Henderson in-specie distribution - On the downside there is the potential that the parent company would need to undertake a capital raising, as AMP, did to cover any outstanding intercompany transactions between the parent and new company. It should be noted however, that a large portion of the capital raising AMP undertook was to cover a write-down of Henderson s goodwill. On-sellers may be difficult to find, however this was not an issue for Henderson - There is also the risk that with an in-specie distribution, there could be difficulty in finding on-sellers of the stock. However, Henderson, which faced stagnant operating market conditions at the time of its listing, saw strong investor demand (see figure 2 above). 30 March
6 Could be costly; however, all disposal options are likely to incur costs The cost to undertake the in-specie distribution could be costly, at AMP the cost was $214m. However, it should be noted that whichever disposal option is undertaken there will be a cost involved. Investment View Recent press speculation has suggested the potential for NAB to separate out NAB UK via an inspecie distribution. This is a surprisingly common move in the Australian market and historically has been value creating. Fig 10 NAB Financial Summary Year Ending 30 September H14 2H H15 2H Outperform PER SHARE DATA Cash EPS (AUD) - Macquarie Basis Current Price Target Price Cash EPS Growth (%) 5% 3% -35% -14% 54% 0% 22% 8% 7% A$38.32 $40.58 DPS (AUD) Total Shareholder Return 11.1% BVPS (AUD) NTA PS (AUD) Bloomberg: NAB AU Shares on issue (m) 2,349 2,354 2,366 2,366 2,416 2,432 2,432 2,471 2,509 Reuters: NAB.AX VALUATION METRICS Macquarie Equities Australian Banks P/E (Cash) Analyst(s) Contact(s) P/B (Stated) Michael Wiblin P/NTA Anita Stanley RoE (%) 12.2% 13.6% 8.6% 11.1% 13.1% 12.8% 12.9% 13.3% 13.4% Brendan Carrig RoA (%) 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% Dividend Yield (%) 5.0% 2.6% 2.6% 5.2% 2.6% 2.6% 5.2% 5.2% 5.4% Margins & Volumes Dividend Payout (%) 75.8% 75.4% 116.3% 91.5% 75.3% 75.8% 75.5% 69.7% 67.7% Net Interest Margin (%) GLAA growth (%) Sustainable RoE used in Valuation (%) 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 7.0% Cost of Equity (%) 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 2.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% H14 2H H15 2H Efficiency Cost / Income Ratio (%) Cost growth (%) H14 2H H15 2H % 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% PROFIT & LOSS (AUDm) Net Interest Income 13,407 6,843 6,932 13,775 6,998 7,159 14,157 15,097 15,964 Non-Interest Income 5,173 2,644 2,494 5,138 2,438 2,508 4,947 5,192 5,407 Fees & Commissions 3,561 1,804 1,848 3,652 1,912 1,968 3,880 4,138 4,349 Financial Markets ,545 1,608 1,673 Life and Funds 1, , ,453 1,478 1,502 Other Revenue ,932-2,031-2,116 Total Operating Income 18,580 9,487 9,426 18,913 9,436 9,668 19,104 20,290 21,371 Total Operating Costs 8,174 4,456 5,724 10,180 4,406 4,534 8,941 9,260 9,436 Employee Costs 4,362 2,292 2,240 4,532 2,285 2,330 4,615 4,802 4,996 Other Costs 3,812 2,164 3,484 5,648 2,121 2,204 4,325 4,458 4,440 Pre-Provision Operating Profit 10,406 5,031 3,702 8,733 5,030 5,133 10,163 11,030 11,936 Impairment Charge 1, Pre-Tax Profit 8,472 4,503 3,353 7,856 4,593 4,675 9,269 10,209 11,067 Tax Expense 2,337 1,263 1,229 2,492 1,290 1,313 2,603 2,867 3,109 Minority Shareholders Other Post Tax Items Stated Net Profit 5,452 2,856 2,439 5,295 3,303 3,362 6,665 7,342 7,958 Extraordinary & Other Items Hybrid Distributions IoRE/Non Controlling Interest Derivatives & Hedging Revaluation Macquarie Cash Profit 5,936 3,150 2,034 5,184 3,213 3,272 6,485 7,162 7,778 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% Asset Quality Impairment Charge / GLAA (bp) Coverage (%) BALANCE SHEET & CAP AD (AUDm) Risk Weighted Assets * 362, , , , , , , , ,191 Interest Earning Assets 662, , , , , , , , ,342 Gross Loans, Advances & Acceptances 521, , , , , , , , ,294 Total Deposits 559, , , , , , , , ,043 Total Assets 808, , , , , , , ,036 1,021,510 Shareholders Equity 46,620 47,478 47,908 47,908 50,484 51,965 51,965 55,858 60,250 Tier 1 Capital 37,480 39,774 39,758 39,758 41,968 42,810 42,810 46,612 50,509 Tier 1 Ratio (%) * 10.4% 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 11.5% 11.4% 11.4% 11.7% 11.0% Core Tier 1 Ratio (%) - Basel III 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.7% 9.3% 64% 20 62% 60% H14 2H H15 2H ASSET QUALITY Impairment Charge / GLAA (bp) Coverage (%) 63% 68% 76% 76% 76% 77% 77% 77% 78% Total Stage 1 Dividends DDM Valuation 7.21 Total Fade Period Dividends Total Perpetuity Dividends 0.95 Total Surplus Capital Per Share KEY RATIOS & GROWTH Net Interest Income growth (%) 0.8% 0.6% 1.3% 2.7% 0.9% 2.3% 2.8% 6.6% 5.7% Non-Interest Income growth (%) 5.0% 4.5% -5.7% -0.7% -2.2% 2.9% -3.7% 5.0% 4.1% Total Revenue growth (%) 2.0% 1.7% -0.6% 1.8% 0.1% 2.5% 1.0% 6.2% 5.3% Cost growth (%) 4.4% 6.1% 28.5% 24.5% -23.0% 2.9% -12.2% 3.6% 1.9% Pre-Provision Profit growth (%) 0.1% -2.0% -26.4% -16.1% 35.9% 2.1% 16.4% 8.5% 8.2% RWA growth (%) 9.3% 1.4% 0.1% 1.5% -0.4% 2.7% 2.2% 6.1% 14.9% GLAA growth (%) 4.2% 2.4% 2.1% 4.5% 2.1% 2.9% 5.1% 6.1% 4.8% Deposit growth (%) 4.9% 2.8% 4.1% 7.1% 2.1% 2.9% 5.1% 6.1% 4.8% Net Interest Margin (%) 2.03% 1.94% 1.94% 1.94% 1.91% 1.90% 1.91% 1.92% 1.93% Cost / Income Ratio (%) 44.0% 47.0% 60.7% 53.8% 46.7% 46.9% 46.8% 45.6% 44.2% Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March March
7 Fundamentals Macquarie Wealth Management Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a reasonably positive view on National Australia Bank. The strongest style exposure is Earnings Momentum, indicating this stock has received earnings upgrades and is well liked by sell side analysts. The weakest style exposure is Profitability, indicating this stock is not efficiently converting its investments to earnings as proxied by ratios such as ROE, ROA etc. 137/670 Global rank in Banks % of BUY recommendations 57% (8/14) Number of Price Target downgrades 0 Number of Price Target upgrades 2 Attractive Quant Local market rank Global sector rank Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. Two rankings: Local market (Australia & NZ) and Global sector (Banks) Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score. Commonwealth Bank Westpac Banking Corporati ANZ Bank Scentre Group Westfield Corporation Suncorp Commonwealth Bank Westpac Banking Corporati ANZ Bank Scentre Group Westfield Corporation Suncorp % -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. Commonwealth Bank Westpac Banking Corporati ANZ Bank Scentre Group Westfield Corporation Suncorp Commonwealth Bank Westpac Banking Corporati ANZ Bank Scentre Group Westfield Corporation Suncorp % -50% 0% 50% 100% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. Dividend Yield FY0 Dividend Yield LTM Price to Sales FY0 Dividend Yield FY1 Turnover (USD) 250 Day EBITDA Revisions 3 Month Consensus Recommendation Return on Equity NTM Negatives Positives -26% -26% -27% -29% 26% 25% 24% 31% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market. Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score Percentile relative to sector(/670) Percentile relative to market(/408) Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 30 March
8 Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down % in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 40% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 30% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 31 December 2014 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 51.80% 58.06% 45.07% 44.42% 60.54% 46.81% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 5.29% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 31.80% 27.37% 30.99% 50.10% 35.37% 33.51% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 3.08% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 16.39% 14.57% 23.94% 5.48% 4.08% 19.68% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.44% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Company-specific disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 10-Mar-2015 NAB AU Outperform A$ Feb-2015 NAB AU Outperform A$ Jan-2015 NAB AU Outperform A$ Oct-2014 NAB AU Neutral A$ Oct-2014 NAB AU Neutral A$ Oct-2014 NAB AU Neutral A$ Sep-2014 NAB AU Neutral A$ Sep-2014 NAB AU Neutral A$ Jul-2014 NAB AU Neutral A$ May-2014 NAB AU Outperform A$ May-2014 NAB AU Outperform A$ Mar-2014 NAB AU Outperform A$ Feb-2014 NAB AU Outperform A$ Jan-2014 NAB AU Outperform A$ Dec-2013 NAB AU Outperform A$ Oct-2013 NAB AU Outperform A$ Sep-2013 NAB AU Outperform A$ Sep-2013 NAB AU Outperform A$ Sep-2013 NAB AU Outperform A$ Aug-2013 NAB AU Outperform A$ Jul-2013 NAB AU Outperform A$ Jun-2013 NAB AU Outperform A$ May-2013 NAB AU Outperform A$ May-2013 NAB AU Outperform A$ Mar-2013 NAB AU Outperform A$ Mar-2013 NAB AU Neutral A$ Feb-2013 NAB AU Neutral A$ Feb-2013 NAB AU Neutral A$ Jan-2013 NAB AU Neutral A$ Jan-2013 NAB AU Neutral A$ Oct-2012 NAB AU Neutral A$ Oct-2012 NAB AU Neutral A$ Oct-2012 NAB AU Outperform A$ Jul-2012 NAB AU Outperform A$ Jul-2012 NAB AU Outperform A$ May-2012 NAB AU Neutral A$ May-2012 NAB AU Neutral A$ Apr-2012 NAB AU Neutral A$26.05 Analyst certification: The views expressed in this research reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd (ABN , AFSL No ) ( MGL ) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group ) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. 30 March
9 General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) a Participant of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Equities Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act Any MGL subsidiary noted in this research, apart from MBL, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This research has been prepared for the use of the clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any s or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Macquarie Group does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at 30 March
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AUSTRALIA QBE AU Price (at 10:44, 27 Apr 2016 GMT) Neutral A$11.19 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.3%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 11.34 12-month target A$ 12.00 12-month TSR % +12.7 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationIOOF. Positive flows in 1Q17. FUM and Net Flows for September Qtr Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Oct 2016.
AUSTRALIA IFL AU Price (at 06:35, 26 Oct 2016 GMT) Outperform A$8.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 8.74 12-month target A$ 9.00 12-month TSR % +14.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationANZ Bank. The Dis-Associates. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 3Q15 Trading Update. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 07:51, 03 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform A$32.46 Valuation - DDM/PE A$ 32.52 12-month target A$ 33.91 12-month TSR % +10.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 89,752
More informationBendigo and Adelaide Bank
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 06:17, 30 Mar 2017 GMT) Underperform A$12.03 Valuation A$ 11.48- - Sum of Parts/GG 11.71 12-month target A$ 11.50 12-month TSR % +1.2 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationNIB Holdings. Lowest in 4 years still enough A$3.72 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NHF AU Price (at 09:52, 02 Mar 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.72 Valuation A$ 3.85 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.5%) 12-month target A$ 4.00 12-month TSR % +11.7 Volatility
More informationSG Fleet Group. Another UK acquisition. Earnings and target price revision
AUSTRALIA SGF AU Price (at 08:26, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.23 Valuation - PER A$ 3.96-4.22 12-month target A$ 4.37 12-month TSR % +41.0 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationSG Fleet Group % growth in FY17. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Results and contract wins.
AUSTRALIA SGF AU Price (at 07:57, 27 Oct 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.85 Valuation - PER A$ 3.92-4.18 12-month target A$ 4.37 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationAutomotive Holdings Group
AUSTRALIA AHG AU Price (at 06:14, 11 Aug 2016 GMT) Outperform A$4.61 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 4.09-4.63 12-month target A$ 4.36 12-month TSR % -0.2 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Retailing Market cap
More informationEclipx Group. Highlights its funding flexibility A$3.77 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA ECX AU Price (at 02:49, 15 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.77 Valuation - PER A$ 3.53-3.78 12-month target A$ 4.22 12-month TSR % +16.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Diversified Financials
More informationOil Search. Proving up PNG A$7.11 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OSH AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$7.11 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 6.70 12-month target A$ 7.60 12-month TSR % +8.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationRamsay Health Care. France begins to bite A$66.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA RHC AU Price (at 06:11, 06 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$66.37 Valuation A$ 64.54 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 70.00 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationEarnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1H14 result in February Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CBA AU Price (at 06:10, 10 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$73.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.5%) 50.40 12-month target A$ 66.15 12-month TSR % -5.0 Volatility Index Low
More informationAustralian Banks. Pre-Reporting Form Guide AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA MRE vs Consensus MQG FY15 Consensus FY15 Date Profit EPS DPS Profit EPS DPS BEN 10-Aug 439 92 67 434 92 67 CBA 12-Aug 9,289 557 420 9,116 554 419 Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, August 2015
More informationSilver Chef. Capital raising A$7.71 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SIV AU Price (at 08:50, 21 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$7.71 Valuation - PER A$ 6.68 12-month target A$ 6.68 12-month TSR % -7.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market cap A$m 278
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 05:00, 10 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$7.03 Valuation NZ$ 7.39 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.80 12-month TSR % +13.1 Volatility
More informationANZ Bank. What execution risk? Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1Q17 Trading update, February 2017.
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 09:15, 18 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$30.11 Valuation A$ 30.69- - Sum of Parts/GG 31.47 12-month target A$ 31.00 12-month TSR % +8.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationCochlear. Roberts replaced A$88.66 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA COH AU Price (at 06:47, 26 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$88.66 Valuation A$ 81.19 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 95.00 12-month TSR % +9.8 Volatility
More informationSims Metal Management
AUSTRALIA SGM AU Price (at 5:11, 17 Nov 215 GMT) Outperform A$7.19 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ 8.49-9.6 12-month target A$ 8.9 12-month TSR % +26.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationSeek. Progresses Zhaopin privatisation A$16.33 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SEK AU Price (at 06:33, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform A$16.33 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 16.77 12-month target A$ 16.50 12-month TSR % +3.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Commercial &
More informationTox Free Solutions. Winning work again A$2.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA TOX AU Price (at 05:10, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$2.34 Valuation - EV/EBITDA A$ 2.52-3.07 12-month target A$ 2.79 12-month TSR % +23.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationCardno. Tough half over A$2.88 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CDD AU Price (at 04:53, 17 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$2.88 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.80-3.43 12-month target A$ 3.12 12-month TSR % +18.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 08:23, 03 Jul 2012 GMT) Outperform A$23.68 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 27.66 12-month TSR % +24.9 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 25.14
More informationWhitehaven Coal. China outlook drives impairments A$1.04 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA WHC AU Price (at 06:10, 13 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.04 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 1.18 12-month target A$ 1.15 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationOz Minerals. On track to meet guidance A$6.51 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 08:20, 22 Jul 2016 GMT) Underperform A$6.51 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 4.31 12-month target A$ 5.00 12-month TSR % -21.4 Volatility Index High
More informationANZ Bank. Sticking with Super Regional A$27.52 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 09:49, 01 Oct 2015 GMT) Neutral A$27.52 Valuation - DDM/PE A$ 32.74 12-month target A$ 34.15 12-month TSR % +30.6 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 79,891
More informationSirtex Medical. Healthy dose sales. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: FY16 result on the 24th of August
AUSTRALIA SRX AU Price (at CLOSE#, 11 Jul 2016) Outperform A$27.88 Valuation A$ 37.93 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.5%) 12-month target A$ 38.00 12-month TSR % +37.4 Volatility
More informationChallenger. Normalised margin trends expected to decline. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
1H13E 2H13E 1H14E 2H14E 1H15E 2H15E AUSTRALIA CGF AU Price (at CLOSE#, 20 Aug 2012) Outperform A$3.76 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.57 12-month TSR % +26.4 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.57
More informationTelstra Corporation. Vodafone better, but far from good A$6.43 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 11:23, 21 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$6.43 Valuation A$ 6.37 - DCF (WACC 6.8%, beta 0.8, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.2%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +3.3 Volatility Index
More informationSenex Energy Production and revenue unsurprised, cash builds on lower capex
26 April 2018 Australia EQUITIES SXY AU Price (at 06:10, 26 Apr 2018 GMT) Outperform A$0.42 Valuation A$ 0.49 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 4.0%, RFR 4.3%) 12-month target A$ 0.50 12-month TSR % +19.0
More informationSouthern Cross Media. Streamlining ahead of reform? A$1.37 AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA SXL AU Price (at 05:10, 27 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$1.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 1.39 12-month target A$ 1.30 12-month TSR % +0.8 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationCoca-Cola Amatil. Not as fizzy as it looks A$8.78 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA CCL AU Price (at CLOSE#, 21 Aug 2015) Underperform A$8.78 Valuation A$ 8.47 - DCF (WACC 8.7%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.9%) 12-month target A$ 8.99 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationBoart Longyear. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA BLY AU Price (at 08:01, 12 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$0.50 Valuation A$ 0.71 - DCF (WACC 10.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 0.1%, RFR 0.1%, TGR 0.0%) 12-month target A$ 0.56 12-month TSR % +12.0 Volatility Index
More informationMeridian Energy. On tax depreciation NZ$2.08 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
NEW ZEALAND MEL NZ Price (at 05:00, 13 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$2.08 Valuation NZ$ 2.50 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 2.60 12-month TSR % +31.7 Volatility
More informationKingsgate Consolidated
AUSTRALIA KCN AU Price (at 6:11, 31 Jul 215 GMT) Underperform A$.67 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).3 12-month target A$.3 12-month TSR % -54.9 Volatility Index Very High GICS
More informationOrigin Energy. 4Q Production. ORG reported its 4 th quarter production report, following on ConocoPhilips quarterly result.
AUSTRALIA ORG AU Price (at 06:11, 30 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$11.35 Valuation A$ 12.79 - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 12.89 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility
More informationGenworth Mortgage Insurance Australia
AUSTRALIA GMA AU Price (at 07:29, 05 Aug 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.50 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%) 3.52 12-month target A$ 3.47 12-month TSR % +9.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationNuplex Industries. Should benefit from a weak Kiwi NZ$4.55 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND NPX NZ Price (at 05:00, 31 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.55 Valuation NZ$ 4.40 - DCF (WACC 12.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 03:59, 16 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$6.63 Valuation NZ$ 6.86 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.25 12-month TSR % +11.6 Volatility
More informationAustralian Banks. Money Talks vertically challenged AUSTRALIA. Inside. Majors average short positions and banks index
Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun- Dec- AUSTRALIA Repricing generally follows an election s Nov Aug 1 Sep 1 1-1 Source: RBA, Macquarie Research,
More informationAustralian Banks. If it s too good to be true AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook. Impact of repricing and capital from additional 10% investor RWA
CBA CBA CBA CBA AUSTRALIA Changes to lending rates (bps) bps Owner Occupier Investor P&I IO P&I IO 0 20 25 36 CBA 3 25 24 26 7 7 25 25 3 8 23 28 BEN 0 0 25 25 Source: Company data, Macquarie research,
More informationKiwi Property Group. Land banking for the future NZ$1.43 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND KPG NZ Price (at 08:19, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform NZ$1.43 Valuation NZ$ 1.53 - DCF (WACC 6.9%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.53 12-month TSR % +11.8 Volatility
More informationOz Minerals. Solid start to the year A$5.62 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 6:24, 21 Apr 216 GMT) Underperform A$5.62 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 4.61 12-month target A$ 4.6 12-month TSR % -15.5 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationSuper Retail Group (SUL AU) Are we there yet?
25 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES SUL AU Price (at 09:01, 24 Oct 2018 GMT) Neutral A$8.33 Valuation A$ 8.30-9.50 - EV/EBITA 12-month target A$ 8.70 12-month TSR % +10.9 Volatility Index GICS sector Low/Medium
More informationKaroon Gas. What a difference a day makes A$1.63 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +47.7 Volatility Index High
More informationNEW ZEALAND Price Valuation NZ$ 1.74 Event 12-month target NZ$ month TSR % -10.1
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 05:06, 24 Feb 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$2.20 Valuation NZ$ 1.74 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.82 12-month TSR % -10.1 Volatility
More informationHealthcare. Currency adjustments AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook COH 8.0% RMD 6.9% CSL 6.0% ANN 5.0% SHL 2.6%
AUSTRALIA Recommendations: CSL Outperform P/T: $110.00 RMD Underperform P/T: $7.50 COH Outperform P/T: $100.00 SHL Outperform P/T: $24.00 ANN Outperform P/T: $26.00 RHC Outperform P/T: $75.00 A$ earnings
More informationAMP. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at CLOSE#, 19 Mar 213) Underperform A$5.7 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.99 12-month TSR % +3.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.68 GICS sector Insurance Market cap A$m 14,855
More informationCIMIC Group. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Q1 earnings 13 April. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CIM AU Price (at 05:10, 31 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$35.93 Valuation A$ 42.69 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 42.50 12-month TSR % +22.0 Volatility
More informationPerseus Mining. Revised Sissingué plan A$0.31 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PRU AU Price (at 5:1, 31 Mar 217 GMT) Neutral A$.31 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%).35 12-month target A$.32 12-month TSR % +3.2 Volatility Index Very High GICS sector
More informationOrocobre. Upside exposure fading. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Update on projects or Q1 report
AUSTRALIA ORE AU Price (at 5:11, 28 Feb 217 GMT) Neutral A$3.8 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$ 1.34 12-month target A$ 3.17 12-month TSR % +2.9 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationIron Mountain. US$10 worth Recalling at investor day US$31.83 UNITED STATES. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
UNITED STATES IRM US Price (at 20:03, 07 Oct 2015 GMT) Outperform US$31.83 Valuation - DCF (WACC 6.1%) US$ 40.00 12-month target US$ 40.00 12-month TSR % +31.6 GICS sector Real Estate Market cap US$m 6,711
More informationAustralian Banks. Funding markets open for now
AUSTRALIA Weekly performance 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling monthly performance 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling yearly performance % 15% 5% -5%
More informationGeneration Healthcare REIT
AUSTRALIA GHC AU Price (at 06:13, 24 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.65 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 1.51-1.59 12-month target A$ 1.59 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap
More informationSpotless Group Holdings
AUSTRALIA SPO AU Price (at 05:45, 31 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$0.94 Valuation - Peer multiples A$ 1.02 12-month target A$ 1.02 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationPanAust. Larger impairment and dividend cut A$1.35 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA PNA AU Price (at 7:6, 19 Feb 215 GMT) Outperform A$1.35 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.73 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +25.9 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationDowner EDI Two out of three ain t bad Event
AUSTRALIA DOW AU Price (at 06:26, 01 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$6.08 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 5.69-6.38 12-month target A$ 6.40 12-month TSR % +9.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationPilbara Minerals (PLS AU) Ramp-up gaining traction
17 January 219 Australia EQUITIES PLS AU Price (at 5:1, 16 Jan 219 GMT) Outperform A$.7 Valuation A$ 1.11 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 12-month target A$ 1.2 12-month TSR % +72.7 Volatility
More informationSandfire Resources. Swings to net cash A$5.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 6:11, 7 Jul 216 GMT) Outperform A$5.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 5.82 12-month target A$ 6.1 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationAuckland International Airport
NEW ZEALAND AIA NZ Price (at 04:00, 27 Nov 2013 GMT) Neutral NZ$3.42 Valuation NZ$ 3.37 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.3%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 3.37 12-month TSR % +2.6 Volatility
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 5:1, 5 Mar 215 GMT) Neutral A$2.29 Valuation A$ 2.6 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.6%) 12-month target A$ 2.6 12-month TSR % +16. Volatility Index High GICS
More informationAustralian Mobile Market
AUSTRALIA Telstra data inclusions on key post-paid plans $130 $130 $95 $70 $55 Optus data inclusions on key post-paid plans "Everyday Connect" "Mobile Accelerate" $50 $40 Vodafone data inclusions on key
More informationSingTel. Optus rises A$3.98 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 12 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.98 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.64-4.73 12-month target A$ 4.69 12-month TSR % +22.4 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Telecommunication
More informationVista Group International
NEW ZEALAND VGL NZ Price (at 03:15, 26 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.35 Valuation NZ$ 4.31 - DCF (WACC 9.9%, beta 1.0, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.0%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +9.5 Volatility
More informationSingTel. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation. Maintain Outperform.
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 06 Dec 2012 GMT) Outperform A$2.59 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 2.81 12-month TSR % +14.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.81 GICS sector Telecommunication Services
More informationRegis Resources. Strong 1H15 result A$1.29 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA RRL AU Price (at 7:29, 13 2 GMT) Outperform A$1.29 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.68 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +37.2 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationIndependence Group NL
AUSTRALIA IGO AU Price (at 12:29, 26 Oct 216 GMT) Outperform A$4.25 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 3.98 12-month target A$ 5. 12-month TSR % +2.2 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationAussie Macro Moment. Budget 16/17 careful consolidation AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA Lower deficits still in train, arriving late - - - /5 /7-5 -5 Jun-9 Jun- Jun Jun-8 Jun Jun Jun- Revenue recovery remains sluggish 7 5 Australian Federal : Underlying Balance ( of GDP) 5/ Spending
More informationCarsales.com. Motoring along nicely A$10.23 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CRZ AU Price (at 9:48, 18 Feb 15 GMT) Outperform A$1.23 Valuation A$ 12.59 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.2, ERP 5., RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.) 12-month target A$ 12.3 12-month TSR % +24.1 Volatility Index
More informationRamsay Health Care (RHC AU) RHC UK on the mend?
17 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES RHC AU Price (at 05:48, 17 Oct 2018 GMT) Outperform A$54.18 Valuation A$ 68.50 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.7%, TGR 3.7%) 12-month target A$ 68.50 12-month
More informationOz Minerals. Raises copper production outlook A$9.08 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 7:28, 3 Jan 27 GMT) Neutral A$9.8 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 8.48 2-month target A$ 9.3 2-month TSR % +4.6 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationAust. General Insurance
AUSTRALIA June 2016 3 mth rolling market results Personal Commercial Market Average Rate Growth -3. -3.6% -3.3% GWP Growth 1.8% -0.8% 0.9% Volume Growth 2.8% 0.8% 2.1% Est. Exposure Value Growth 2. 2.
More informationANZ Bank. Turning the corner? Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1Q17 Trading update, February 2017.
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 11:16, 3 Nov 216 GMT) Outperform A$27.35 Valuation A$ 27.47- - Sum of Parts/GG 29.23 12-month target A$ 28.5 12-month TSR +1.2 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks Market
More informationSilver Lake Resources
AUSTRALIA SLR AU Price (at 12:42, 27 Jan 215 GMT) Neutral A$.25 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$.23 12-month target A$.23 12-month TSR % -8. Volatility Index Very High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationGenesis Energy. A 9% FCF yield and you call underperform? NZ$1.71 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 06:49, 29 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$1.71 Valuation NZ$ 1.60 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.65 12-month TSR % +6.1 Volatility
More informationSaracen Mineral Holdings
AUSTRALIA SAR AU Price (at 5:, Jan 17 GMT) Neutral A$1.11 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 5.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 1.19 12-month target A$ 1. 12-month TSR % +.5 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationRyman Healthcare. Arrested development NZ$9.60 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
NEW ZEALAND RYM NZ Price (at 6:, 19 May 216 GMT) Outperform NZ$9.6 Valuation NZ$ 1.5 - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta.8, ERP 7.%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.%) 12-month target NZ$ 11. 12-month TSR % +16.5 Volatility Index Low
More informationDexus Property Group. Infra driving industrial demand A$9.94 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA DXS AU Price (at 06:10, 06 Apr 2017 GMT) Neutral A$9.94 Valuation - NAV A$ 9.20-9.57 12-month target A$ 9.57 12-month TSR % +1.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 9,621
More information3P Learning. Coming to America... A$2.55 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA 3PL AU Price (at 09:19, 02 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.55 Valuation - DCF A$ 2.65-3.35 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +18.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Consumer Services
More informationBHP Billiton. Mad Dog 2 gets FID AUSTRALIA/ UNITED KINGDOM/ SOUTH AFRICA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA/ UNITED KINGDOM/ SOUTH AFRICA BHP AU/BLT LN/BIL SJ Outperform Price (at 12:49, 02 Dec 2016 GMT) A$25.02/ 13.39/R234.60 Valuation A$ 20.74/ 12.25/R217.81 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%,
More informationBendigo and Adelaide Bank
AUSTRALIA BEN AU Price (at CLOSE#, 17 Aug 2012) Neutral A$8.69 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 9.28 12-month TSR % +14.0 Valuation - DCF (WACC 12.1%) A$ 8.28 GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 3,447
More informationInsurance Australia Group
AUSTRALIA IAG AU Price (at CLOSE#, 16 Jun 2015) Underperform A$5.81 Valuation A$ 5.18 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 5.40 12-month TSR % -2.1 Volatility Index
More informationAUSTRALIA Price Valuation A$ 7.52 Event 12-month target A$ month TSR % +3.4
AUSTRALIA ILU AU Price (at 05:10, 19 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$7.59 Valuation A$ 7.52 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 3.9%) 12-month target A$ 7.50 12-month TSR % +3.4 Volatility Index
More informationAustralian Banks. Insolent Insolvencies
AUSTRALIA Insolvencies Stubborn # of Insolvencies 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, Source: ASIC, Macquarie Research, Dec 212 WA/VIC insolvencies deterioration 2.4 2.2 Jan- 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 Source: ASIC,
More informationPremier Investments. Making a move? A$14.18 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PMV AU Price (at 09:06, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$14.18 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 17.19 12-month target A$ 17.92 12-month TSR % +30.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Retailing Market
More informationAdelaide Brighton. Overcoming headwinds A$5.45 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ABC AU Price (at 09:22, 23 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$5.45 Valuation A$ 6.40 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +2 Volatility Index
More informationKaroon Gas. Losing the deal A$1.83 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.83 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +31.5 Volatility Index High
More informationUGL. Driving growth in DTZ. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 08:17, 03 Sep 2012 GMT) Underperform A$10.52 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 11.08 12-month TSR % +12.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 6.0%, TGR 2.5%) 15.09
More informationAged Care. Propco sale & lease back A$2.71 A$5.75 A$6.15 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA JHC AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Apr 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.71 Valuation A$ 2.97 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.3%) 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +14.7 Volatility
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 05:00, 28 May 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$6.30 Valuation NZ$ 7.29 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.25 12-month TSR % +17.6 Volatility
More informationCSL. New competitor on the block A$89.68 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 10:28, 20 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$89.68 Valuation A$ 95.47 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.5%) 12-month target A$ 102.00 12-month TSR % +15.7 Volatility
More informationBuilders Barometer. Rising damp AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
Jan 00 Mar 01 May 02 Jul 03 Sep 04 Nov 05 Jan 07 Mar 08 May 09 Jul 10 Sep 11 Nov 12 Jan 14 Mar 15 May 16 AUSTRALIA Rising damp Event The ABS released February 2017 building approvals data. Seasonallyadjusted,
More informationEvolution Mining. Cowal pushes EVN beyond 800kozpa A$1.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA EVN AU Price (at 3:18, 26 May 215 GMT) Neutral A$1.1 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.11 12-month target A$ 1.1 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationNewcrest Mining. Strong production result A$21.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NCM AU Price (at 5:37, 27 Oct 216 GMT) Neutral A$21.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 5.%, beta.8, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 15.8 12-month target A$ 24. 12-month TSR % +13.9 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector
More informationAsaleo Care. NZ$ pulped. We review the outlook for Asaleo. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: CY15 results.
AUSTRALIA AHY AU Price (at 06:10, 16 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$1.80 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 1.90-2.00 12-month target A$ 2.00 12-month TSR % +16.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Household & Personal
More informationSeek. SEEKing to evolve A$17.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SEK AU Price (at 12:41, 17 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$17.10 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 18.03 12-month target A$ 18.10 12-month TSR % +8.5 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationSandfire Resources. Strong result but guidance light A$6.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 06:37, 29 Jul 20 GMT) Outperform A$6.10 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.0%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 8.02 12-month target A$ 8.00 12-month TSR % +35.8 Volatility Index Medium
More informationMacquarie Atlas Roads Group
AUSTRALIA MQA AU Price (at 06:10, 21 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.14 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 7.0%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 2.2%) 4.17 12-month target A$ 3.87 12-month TSR % +29.5 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationIluka Resources. A soft start to FY15 A$7.73 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ILU AU Price (at 06:10, 15 Apr 2015 GMT) Underperform A$7.73 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 6.35 12-month target A$ 6.50 12-month TSR % -12.6 Volatility Index Medium
More information