Daily Market Update Report as on Friday, October 05, 2018 Gold gained on worries over Italian finances. EU officials expressed concerns about Italy s financial budget plan and fears of a widening budget deficit drove up safe-haven demand. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hailed a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy that he feels is on the verge of a historically rare era of ultra-low unemployment and tame prices for the foreseeable future. India s gold imports may rise in the fourth quarter as investors seek alternatives to faltering equity markets and a plunging rupee at the same time traditional buying will rise during the festival season, said multiple sources involved in the market. Increased buying by the world s second-biggest gold consumer would support global prices that have traded roughly near $1,200 an ounce since late August, but also widen India s trade deficit and add to pressure on the Indian rupee, which fell to a record low on Wednesday. In the fourth quarter of 2018, gold imports could rise 9 percent from a year ago to 250 tonnes. In the fourth quarter of 2017, India imported 229.6 tonnes of gold, according to metals consultancy GFMS. Sales of gold products by the Perth Mint surged in September to their highest since January 2017, while silver sales more than doubled from August to mark an over two-year peak, boosted by lower bullion prices, the mint said. Sales of gold coins and minted bars surged 61 percent from August to 62,552 ounces last month, the mint said. Gold sales in September rose about 35 percent from a year-ago period. Silver sales soared 151 percent from August to 1,305,600 ounces, their highest since March 2016. From a year earlier, sales advanced about 87 percent. High price of gold, delayed decision on making hallmarking mandatory and shrinking margins have turned the mood sombre ahead of the festive season at Zaveri Bazaar, the largest gold market in Asia. Prices are ruling high, thanks to the depreciating rupee. There is hardly any demand in the market for the yellow metal right now as consumers are holding back their purchase decision. Gold imports in September are expected to be half compared to August, when the country had imported around 90 tonnes of gold. This month imports will be around 40-45 tonnes, said Mukesh Kothari, director, Riddi-Siddhi Bullions. Gold prices have shot up 3.5 per cent in last one month on account of depreciating rupee. The margins in B2B trade in Zaveri Bazaar are also under pressure. Hedge funds and money managers raised their net short position in COMEX gold contracts in the week to Sept. 25, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. They also trimmed their net short position in silver contracts and switched to a net long position in copper futures and options, according to the data. Gold speculators raised their net short position by 2,923 lots to 77,313 lots, the largest in three weeks, according to CFTC data. Hedge funds and money managers cut their net short position in silver by 2,648 contracts to 42,409 contracts, CFTC data showed. Date Gold* Silver* 04 Oct 2018 (Thursday) 31235.00 38445.00 03 Oct 2018 (Wednesday) 31210.00 38490.00 01 Oct 2018 (Monday) 30675.00 37820.00 The above rate are IBJA PM rates * Rates are exclusive of GST 04 Oct 2018 (Thursday) Page 1
Market View Open MCX GOLD 31200.00 High 31537.00 31907.00 Low 31200.00 31722.00 Close 31417.00 31570.00 Value Change 54.00 31233.00 % Change 0.17 31048.00 Margin 5.00 30896.00 Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) 157085 6927.00 13217.00 3.27 Daily Levels Resistance Support Outlook: Gold prices held steady as investors remained cautious after U.S. Treasury yields hit multi-year peaks Prev Value(Mln) 21755.91 228.00 and ahead of monthly employment data, which if stronger could boost the Federal Reserve s case for a tighter monetary policy. For the day prices a drop towards 31350-31300 will look to buy with a stoploss of below 31200 52 Week High 31881.00 APR - FEB expecting prices to jump towards 31480-31620 level. 52 Week Low 29500.00 341.00 Spread FEB - DEC Gold steadied as surging U.S. government bond yields and nervousness about inflationary pressures sent stock markets tumbling and investors to seek safety. About half of the Fed s policymakers, including chairman Jerome Powell, used public appearances to show an increasingly unified view that the U.S. economy was not headed for any obvious potholes. Further supporting the dollar was data showing strength in the U.S. job market, with service sector activity racing to a 21-year high in September. The Fed raised U.S. rates last week and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in 2020, citing steady economic growth and a robust jobs market. Meanwhile, the Italian government indicated it was open to trimming its budget deficit and debt, easing fears about fiscal policy in the euro zone s third-biggest economy, which dented safe haven buying interest for gold. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.84 percent to 23,522,860.09 ounces on Wednesday, the lowest since February 2016. India s gold imports may rise in the fourth quarter as investors seek alternatives to faltering equity markets and a plunging rupee at the same time traditional buying will rise during the festival season, said multiple sources involved in the market. In the fourth quarter of 2018, gold imports could rise 9 percent from a year ago to 250 tonnes. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.27% to settled at 13217 while prices up 54 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 31233 and below same could see a test of 31048 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 31570, a move above could see prices testing 31722. Page 2
INT. GOLD$ Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change 1197.02 1205.91 1195.93 1199.57 2.54 0.00 Resistance 1214.99 1210.45 1205.01 1195.03 1190.49 1185.05 Support Outlook: Gold price showed new test to 1208.40 level and bounced downwards clearly from there, to keep the bearish trend suggested in the upcoming sessions, waiting to target 1180.00 followed by 1160.00 as next main stations, noting that stochastic begins to lose the positive momentum to support the expectations to decline. Gold steadied as surging U.S. government bond yields and nervousness about inflationary pressures sent stock markets tumbling and investors to seek safety. About half of the Fed s policymakers, including chairman Jerome Powell, used public appearances to show an increasingly unified view that the U.S. economy was not headed for any obvious potholes. Further supporting the dollar was data showing strength in the U.S. job market, with service sector activity racing to a 21-year high in September. The Fed raised U.S. rates last week and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in 2020, citing steady economic growth and a robust jobs market. Meanwhile, the Italian government indicated it was open to trimming its budget deficit and debt, easing fears about fiscal policy in the euro zone s third-biggest economy, which dented safe haven buying interest for gold. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.84 percent to 23,522,860.09 ounces on Wednesday, the lowest since February 2016. India s gold imports may rise in the fourth quarter as investors seek alternatives to faltering equity markets and a plunging rupee at the same time traditional buying will rise during the festival season, said multiple sources involved in the market. In the fourth quarter of 2018, gold imports could rise 9 percent from a year ago to 250 tonnes. Technically now Gold is getting support at 1196.20 and below same could see a test of 1189.80 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1209.40, a move above could see prices testing 1216.00. Page 3
Rupee plumbed record lows as global oil prices rose and stocks and bonds weakened, heightening speculation that the central bank may hike interest rates more aggressively than earlier expected. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.53% to settled at 3068434, now USDINR is getting support at 73.57 and below same could see a test of 73.4375 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 73.9325, a move above could see prices testing 74.1625. USDINR Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low 73.9100 74.0300 73.6675 73.8875 0.3000 0.41 2.51 1855 3285053 3064622 10.39 242720.60 74.0300 64.6000 Resistance 74.42 74.22 74.06 73.69 73.50 73.33 Support Spread NOV - OCT 0.2950 DEC - NOV 0.2900 Rupee plumbed record lows as global oil prices rose and stocks and bonds weakened, heightening speculation that the central bank may hike interest rates more aggressively than earlier expected. The fall in the rupee also led to a sharp rise in government bond yields, due to increasing expectations that the RBI's monetary policy committee (MPC) could go for a bigger rate increase than expected on Friday. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to raise rates for a third time since June to combat inflationary pressures as it grapples with a weakening rupee, surging oil prices and market instability sparked by a major non-bank finance firm s defaults. India's service sector expanded at a marginal rate in September amid reports of underwhelming market demand, survey results from IHS Markit showed. The Nikkei services Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 50.9 in September from 51.5 in August. This was the lowest reading in the current four-month sequence of rising activity. Nonetheless, a score above 50 indicates expansion. The composite output index, covering both manufacturing and services, came in at 51.6, down from 51.9 in August. Despite a slight improvement in manufacturing, the score reached its lowest level in four months. In the service sector, weaker growth was closely linked to a broad stagnation of new business. Price pressures intensified, with higher fuel costs and a stronger US dollar raising the price of imported goods. Further, expectations remained in positive territory, whilst firms added to their staffing levels for a thirteenth successive month. Technically now USDINR is getting support at 73.57 and below same could see a test of 73.4375 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 73.9325, a move above could see prices testing 74.1625. Page 4
Gold Spot 995 Gold Spot 999 Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last* CMDTY Gold 995 - Ahmedabad 32040.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Ahmedabad 32170.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Bangalore 32020.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Bangalore 32170.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Chennai 32040.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Chennai 32190.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Cochin 32045.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Cochin 32195.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Delhi 32030.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Delhi 32180.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Hyderabad 32040.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Hyderabad 32190.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Jaipur 32025.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Jaipur 32145.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Kolkata 32050.00 CMDTY Gold 999 - Mumbai 32185.00 CMDTY Gold 995 - Mumbai 32035.00 * Rates including GST * Rates including GST Silver Spot 999 Bullion Futures on MCX Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last CMDTY Silver 999 - Ahmedabad 39250.00 MCX GOLD 04AUG2017 31417.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Bangalore 39585.00 MCX GOLD 05OCT2017 31645.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Chennai 39555.00 MCX GOLD 05DEC2017 31986.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Delhi 39560.00 MCX SILVER 05JUL2017 38971.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Hyderabad 39600.00 MCX SILVER 05SEP2017 39727.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Jaipur 39525.00 MCX SILVER 05DEC2017 40222.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Kolkata 39700.00 CMDTY Silver 999 - Mumbai 39655.00 * Rates including GST Bullion Futures on DGCX Gold and Silver Fix Exch. Descr. Last Exch. Descr. Last DGCX GOLD 28NOV2018 1203.40 CMDTY Gold London AM FIX 1341.05 DGCX GOLD 29JAN2019 1194.50 CMDTY Gold London PM FIX 1341.05 DGCX GOLD QUANTO 29NOV2018 31477.00 CMDTY Silver London FIX 16.45 DGCX GOLD QUANTO 30JAN2019 31654.00 DGCX SILVER 28NOV2018 14.70 Gold / Silver Ratio DGCX SILVER 26FEB2019 14.67 Exch. Descr. Last DGCX SILVER QUANTO 29NOV2018 41189.00 INTL. SPOT GOLD SILVER RATIO 82.32 MCX MCX GOLD SILVER RATIO 80.62 Page 5
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