AUSTRALIA MYR AU Price (at CLOSE#, 16 Mar 2017) Outperform A$1.21 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ 1.14-1.28 12-month target A$ 1.21 12-month TSR % +4.5 Volatility Index High GICS sector Retailing Market cap A$m 994 30-day avg turnover A$m 4.8 Number shares on issue m 821.3 Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Jul 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenue m 2,679.0 2,502.6 2,448.2 2,431.4 EBIT m 113.5 114.9 121.0 124.3 Reported profit m 60.5 58.2 58.7 68.8 Adjusted profit m 69.3 72.2 79.7 82.8 Gross cashflow m 162.0 167.9 171.1 173.9 CFPS 21.7 20.3 20.6 20.9 CFPS growth % -17.9-6.8 1.4 1.6 PGCFPS x 5.6 6.0 5.9 5.8 PGCFPS rel x 0.45 0.55 0.60 0.65 EPS adj 9.6 8.7 9.6 10.0 EPS adj growth % -21.8-9.0 9.7 3.9 PER adj x 12.6 13.9 12.6 12.2 PER rel x 0.58 0.75 0.80 0.91 Total DPS 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Total div yield % 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 Franking % 100 100 100 100 ROA % 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.4 ROE % 7.0 6.5 7.1 7.2 EV/EBITDA x 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 Net debt/equity % 9.2 10.4 8.8 5.3 P/BV x 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 MYR AU vs Small Ordinaries, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2017 (all figures in AUD unless noted) Cost outs offset weak sales Event MYR has reported a commendable result with underlying NPAT of $62.8m (MRE $51.2m) and announced an interim dividend of 3cps (MRE 3.2cps). Impact Sales a disappointing aspect of performance. MYR s lethargic sales line has been the bane of management and shareholders for years. A disappointing slowdown in sales over 2Q17 has resurrected these demons as the market contemplates whether the lift to sales from a shift to a wanted brand strategy is now petering out. A reduced store footprint will exacerbate the sales decline over the next year. This a clear risk for MYR, but seasonal conditions have played a role over 2Q17 and reductions in underperforming stores and floor space should enhance margins, all else held constant. Cost-outs a clear positive, with more available. Offsetting the weak sales and unremarkable gross margin was a very strong cost out effort, which had resulted from the increased reliance on concession brand labour and business efficiencies. MYR anticipate further material cost reductions to come as systems are embedded to optimise labour efficiency and merchandise planning in store. In the short term, MYR relies on costs to underpin earnings guidance, but beyond that the company crucially needs sales to recover. Cash flow and net debt again in better shape. On the positive side, MYR s operating cash flow and balance sheet were both ahead of expectations with net cash of $8m in. We forecast ND of $117m in FY17 and ND/EBITDA 0.55x. This provides some financial support as the group steps up on transformation capex and opex in FY17 and beyond. Earnings and target price revision EPS changes: FY17E -2.5%; FY18E -2.3% FY19E -1.2%. Target price lowered 6.2% to $1.21 based on EV/EBIT multiple. Price catalyst 12-month price target: A$1.21 based on an EV/EBIT methodology. Catalyst: 3Q17 trading in May 2017. Action and recommendation Valuation supports an upgrade to Outperform. MYR has been in a trading range over the last two years as the company executes its New strategy. Now back towards the bottom end of its recent range, trading at 13.9x PE and offering a dividend yield of 4%, we believe a short-term trading opportunity is apparent. 16 March 2017 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Please refer to page 9 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
Fig 1 MYR Result The good The not-so-good The interesting Guidance is the weak point. Sales in Jan and February were below expectations, with Jan being the low point. MYR has maintained guidance that EBITDA growth is to exceed sales growth in FY17 on increased NPAT over FHY16, provided the downturn in Jan/Feb does not return. NPAT growth of +5.3% to $62.8m. NPAT growth in represents the first time 1H has experienced profit growth since FY13. Cash CODB was a positive result and well below our expectations at $538.6m (MRE $573.3m) representing 30.2% of sales (MRE at 31.7%). CODB/sales was 77 basis points below levels and overall this translated to EBITDA of $142.2m (MRE $123.2m), 7.97% of sales. Further cost outs available. The reduction in CODB is a positive outcome and one management have stated is sustainable longer term and supported by further labour rostering, merchandise planning improvements and workforce optimisation. Omnichannel business continues to grow strongly. The online business at grew sales by +48% with the Home category the best performer at +66% and now representing >10% of the home business. Total click and collect sales now represents 11.8% of online sales. Inventory starting to decline. Inventory finished the period $5m below last year with the reduction reflecting increase space allocated to concessions, offset by cost price pressure from FX movements. Cancelled planned $100m facility. MYR stated that they cancelled a plan loan facility of $100m as it was no longer required by the business. MYR currently maintain a $500m facility. Cash flow continues to fund capex and dividend. Net operating cashflow improved by $6m with cash conversion stable at 153% (: 154%). Net opex and capex below expectations, but not for long. Net capex and opex forecasts were below that inferred 12 months ago ($480m/$120m over five years) due to asset sales and the lumpy nature of non-recurring opex. However, both will step up from 2H17. Net Debt position in better shape. The improved cash flow and much lower net opex and capex in has driven a $15m improvement in net debt with ending the 1H with a net cash position of $8m. Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2017 Sales slowed over 2Q16. January trading was noted to have been difficult with sales growth well below expectations. comp growth was 0.3% (MRE +2.5% and 2Q17 comps growth was negative at -0.5%). Total sales over were - 0.6%. Gross profit was $682.7m (MRE $696.5m) with a margin of 38.3% (MRE 38.5%). This was mildly disappointing on two counts: it shows more margin pressure from clearance and competition and has also suffered from a weaker than expected sales line. Sales/sqm flat in 12m to July 16 vs 12m to Jan 17; will improve in 2H17. As shown by the moderate comp sales growth performance, sales/sqm (a key metric for MYR) was flat on a MAT basis between FY16 and results. This will likely improve with the closure of the underperforming stores in Orange (NSW) and Brookside (QLD) at the end of. Weak January potentially due to changing consumer behaviour. commented that the weak January sales and relatively stronger December sales may represent a shift in consumers deciding to spend pre-christmas rather than post-christmas which has historically been the case as consumers seek out post-christmas sales. Flagship & Premium stores performing well but details not provided. While performance of the Flagship and Premium stores were said to have operated in excess of the wider business performance was clearly softer than expected with management no longer breaking out performance metrics across the two tiers. ready for online competitors. With the expected impending entrance by a number of global retailers to the Australian market, have reinforced their commitment to investment in an omnichannel strategy and consider themselves well positioned to compete. Impact of closed stores on total sales. In late Jan 17 MYR closed both the Brookside (QLD) and Orange (NSW) stores. While some of the sales of the closed stores are expected to transfer across into nearby stores, management are still assessing how the level of transfer but highlighted they need a year of trading to fully monitor the impact. Transfer of sales can be accurately measured using the One card to track customer purchases. Warringah first customer led New store. The store in Warringah opened pre-christmas in November and represents the full embodiment of the New strategy, including Personal Shopper s, café, barber and enhanced click and collect services. The performance of the new Warringah store will provide insight into the validity of the New strategy with customers to date responding well and sales per sqm +38% vs. FY14 levels (pre centre disruption). 16 March 2017 3
2Q08 4Q08 2Q09 4Q09 2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 2Q08 4Q08 2Q09 4Q09 2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e Macquarie Wealth Management Analysis Fig 2 Earnings revised marginally down following the result FY17f (old) FY17f (new) change FY18f (old) FY18f (new) change FY19f (old) FY19f (new) change $ m Total sales value (ex GST) 3,323.5 3,235.2-2.66% 3,342.9 3,254.1-2.66% 3,367.0 3,277.6-2.66% EBITDA 212.4 210.6-0.83% 214.0 212.4-0.77% 215.8 215.4-0.19% D&A -95.7-95.7 0.00% -91.4-91.4 0.00% -91.0-91.0 0.00% EBIT 116.7 114.9-1.51% 122.7 121.0-1.34% 124.7 124.3-0.33% Net Interest -11.2-11.7 5.03% -7.1-7.1 0.00% -6.0-6.0 0.00% Tax -31.7-31.0-2.21% -34.7-34.2-1.42% -35.6-35.5-0.34% Underlying NPAT 73.9 72.2-2.21% 80.9 79.7-1.42% 83.1 82.8-0.34% Underlying EPS 8.9 8.7-3.03% 9.8 9.6-2.26% 10.1 10.0-1.19% OCF 139.3 156.6 12.38% 152.4 167.9 10.17% 172.0 163.5-4.95% Net Debt 121.5 117.1-3.61% 121.7 99.6-18.18% 79.3 61.6-22.38% DPS 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 5.0-16.7% Source: Macquarie Research, March 2017 Fig 3 Cash CODB (as a % of sales) stabilising as restructuring associated with New takes affect Fig 4 ROFE forecast to increase to 10.4% by FY20 with management targeting >15% GP & CODB margin 45.0% 43.0% 41.0% 39.0% 37.0% 35.0% 33.0% 31.0% 29.0% 27.0% 25.0% EBITDA Total Cash CODB - [% of sales] Gross profit - [margin] EBITDA ($m) 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 ROFE 25.0% 2 15.0% 5.0% EBIT ROFE EBIT ($m) 300 250 200 10.4% 150 100 50 0 Fig 5 Total sales and comp growth slows in 2Q17 to -1.3% and -0.5%, respectively Fig 6 Total sales impacted by the closure of stores and tough 2Q17 trading conditions % change on pcp - - - -8.0% - -1 - Total Sales - Comp Sales -0.5% -1.3% Growth - - - -8.0% - -1 Space/new business growth Comp growth Total growth 16 March 2017 4
Macquarie Wealth Management analysis Fig 7 Gross profit margin declines further due to currency impacts and mix impact... Fig 8... which was offset by a decline in cash CODB/sales of +77bps Gross profit margin 41.5% 41.0% 40.5% 4 39.5% 40.89% 41.08% Operating Gross Profit 40.78% 40.54% CCODB/Sales 33.0% 3 31.0% 3 29.0% 30.16% 30.37% Cash CODB 30.87% 32.30% 30.95% 30.18% 39.0% 39.18% 28.0% 38.5% 38.0% 38.67% 38.26% 27.0% 2 27.46% Fig 9 EBIT margin looks to have troughed in FY16 Fig 10 EBIT split heavily weighted towards 1H Underlying EBIT margin 1 8.0% 9.1% 5.0% 5.9% 9.7% 6.4% 8.4% 6.5% 8.2% 5.2% 7.3% 2.4% 5.7% 2.3% 5.2% 1.3% e 5.3% e 1.4% 2H17e Underlying EBIT margin 1 8.0% 9.1% 5.0% 5.9% 9.7% 6.4% 8.4% 6.5% 8.2% 5.2% 7.3% 2.4% 5.7% 2.3% 5.2% 1.3% e 5.3% e 1.4% 2H17e 16 March 2017 5
Competitor analysis Fig 11 Major department store sales stall over period with tough 2Q conditions Fig 12 Department Stores growth continues to be challenged across DS and DDS Sales (LTM) 4,000.0 3,500.0 3,000.0 2,500.0 2,000.0 1,500.0 1,000.0 500.0 0.0 David Jones David Jone (WHL)* DJS and numbers are for 5 months. DJS (WHL) have Jun/Dec period end while MYR has Jul/Jan period end. for MYR is MACQ estimate. Source: Company Data, Macquarie Research, March 2017 Source: ABS, Macquarie Research, March 2017 Fig 13 Gross margins pressure seen at both MYR and DJs in the last 12 months Gross profit (LTM) 1,400.0 1,200.0 1,000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 David Jones David Jone (WHL)* DJS and numbers are for 5 months. DJS (WHL) have Jun/Dec period end while MYR has Jul/Jan period end. Fig 14 Gross margins across both MYR and DJs are in decline Gross margin (LTM) David Jones David Jone (WHL)* 43.0% 4 41.0% 4 39.0% 38.0% 37.0% 3 35.0% DJS and numbers are for 5 months. DJS (WHL) have Jun/Dec period end while MYR has Jul/Jan period end. Fig 15 MYR EBIT targeted to grow in FY17... Fig 16... as margins targeted to maintain/improve EBIT (LTM) 300.0 250.0 200.0 David Jones David Jone (WHL)* EBIT margin (LTM) David Jones David Jone (WHL)* 1 1 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 DJS and numbers are for 5 months. DJS (WHL) have Jun/Dec period end while MYR has Jul/Jan period end. 8.0% DJS and numbers are for 5 months. DJS (WHL) have Jun/Dec period end while MYR has Jul/Jan period end. 16 March 2017 6
(MYR.AU) - AU$1.08 Interim results e 2H17e Profit & Loss FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Total Sales Value (ex GST) $m 1,794.8 1,494.8 1,784.6 1,450.6 Total Sales Value (ex GST) $m 3,289.6 3,235.2 3,254.1 3,277.6 Concession sales $m 309.7 300.9 386.2 346.4 Concession sales $m 610.6 732.7 805.9 846.2 Revenue from sale of goods (ex GST) $m 1,460.3 1,179.8 1,376.6 1,087.1 Revenue from sale of goods (ex GST) $m 2,640.2 2,463.7 2,409.3 2,392.5 EBITDA $m 138.5 67.7 142.2 68.4 EBITDA $m 206.2 210.6 212.4 215.4 Depreciation $m 44.7 48.0 47.0 48.7 Depreciation $m 92.8 95.7 91.4 91.0 Amortisation $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amortisation $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Consolidated EBIT $m 93.8 19.7 95.2 19.7 EBIT $m 113.5 114.9 121.0 124.3 Non-recurring items $m 0.0 (18.3) 0.0 (20.0) Non-recurring items $m (18.3) (20.0) (30.0) (20.0) Associates/JV's $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Associates/JV's $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Reported EBIT $m 93.8 1.5 95.2 (0.3) Reported EBIT $m 95.2 94.9 91.0 104.3 Net Interest expense $m 8.5 6.0 5.5 6.2 Net interest expense $m 14.5 11.7 7.1 6.0 Pre-Tax Profit $m 85.2 (4.5) 89.7 (6.5) Pre-Tax Profit $m 80.7 83.2 83.9 98.3 Tax consolidated $m 25.6 4.1 26.8 4.1 Tax consolidated $m 29.7 31.0 34.2 35.5 Tax on NRIs $m 0.0 (9.5) 0.0 (6.0) Tax on NRIs $m (9.5) (6.0) (9.0) (6.0) Total tax expense $m 25.6 (5.4) 26.8 (1.9) Total tax expense $m 20.2 25.0 25.2 29.5 Net profit after tax $m 59.7 0.9 62.8 (4.6) Profit after tax $m 60.5 58.2 58.7 68.8 Outside equity interests $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Outside equity interests $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Reported profit $m 59.7 0.9 62.8 (4.6) Reported profit $m 60.5 58.2 58.7 68.8 Adjusted profit 1 $m 59.7 9.6 62.8 9.4 Adjusted Profit 1 $m 69.3 72.2 79.7 82.8 Gross Cashflow 2 $m 104.4 48.9 109.8 44.1 Gross Cashflow 2 $m 153.3 153.9 150.1 159.9 1 Adjusted for NRIs and Goodw ill Amortisation 2 Gross Cashflow is Profit after Tax plus Profit and Loss ratios e 2H17e Profit and Loss ratios FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e PER (adj Earnings) x 6.4 46.5 7.1 47.9 PER (adj Earnings) x 11.3 12.4 11.3 10.9 EPS (Reported) c 8.5 0.1 7.7-0.6 EPS (Reported) c 8.6 7.1 7.2 8.4 EPS (Adjusted) c 8.4 1.2 7.6 1.1 EPS (Adjusted) c 9.6 8.7 9.6 10.0 DPS c 2.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 DPS c 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Dividend Yield % 1.9% 2.8% 2.8% 1.9% Dividend Yield % 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% Revenue Grow th % 1.8% 4.4% -0.6% -3.0% Revenue Grow th % 2.9% -1.7% 0.6% 0.7% EBITDA grow th % -4.7% -13.0% 2.7% 1.0% EBITDA grow th % -7.6% 2.1% 0.8% 1.4% EBITDA margin % 7.7% 4.5% 8.0% 4.7% EBITDA margin % 6.3% 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% Reported EBIT Growth % -6.5% -40.6% 1.6% -0.1% EBIT Growth % -15.0% 1.3% 5.3% 2.7% Effective tax rate % 30% 119% 30% 29% Effective tax rate % 25% 30% 30% 30% Payout ratio % 23.6% 2825.5% 39.2% -356.5% Payout ratio % 58.2% 70.5% 69.9% 59.7% EV/EBIT x 4.1x 25.2x 4.6x 25.8x EV/EBIT x 8.4x 8.8x 8.3x 7.7x EV/EBITDA x 2.8x 7.3x 3.1x 7.4x EV/EBITDA x 4.6x 4.8x 4.7x 4.5x P/FCFPS x 2.1x -6.4x 3.3x -4.5x P/FCFPS x 7.8x 24.5x 15.5x 11.5x FCF Yield % 47% -16% 31% -22% FCF Yield % 13% 4% 6% 9% Balance sheet ratios e 2H17e Balance sheet ratios FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e ROE % 1 1.7% 11.1% 1.7% ROE % 7.0% 6.5% 7.1% 7.2% ROFE % 16.5% 3.3% 16.6% 3.2% ROFE % 9.4% 9.3% 9.8% 10.1% ROA % 10.3% 2.2% 10.5% 2.1% ROA % 6.2% 6.3% 6.6% 6.8% Net Debt $m 7 102-8 117 Net Debt $m 102 117 100 62 Net Debt/Equity % 0.6% 9.2% -0.7% 10.4% Net Debt/Equity % 9.2% 10.4% 8.8% 5.3% Net Debt/EBITDA x 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.9 Net Debt/EBITDA x 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 Net Interest Cover (EBIT) x 11.0 0.2 17.2 (0.0) Net Interest Cover (EBIT) x 6.5 8.1 12.8 17.4 Net Interest Cover (EBITDA) x 16.3 11.2 25.7 11.0 Net Interest Cover (EBITDA) x 14.2 17.9 29.9 35.9 EFPOWA m 707.7 825.5 826.9 832.5 EFPOWA m 789.1 829.7 832.5 832.5 Cashflow Analysis e 2H17e Cashflow Analysis FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e EBITDA $m 138.5 49.5 142.2 48.4 EBITDA $m 188.0 190.6 182.4 195.4 - Incr. in WC $m 90.1-98.6 70.2-53.1 - Incr. in WC $m -8.5 17.1 17.7 1.5 - Net interest expense $m -9.3-6.6-5.2-6.2 - Net interest expense $m -15.9-11.5-7.1-6.0 - Tax paid $m -5.4-14.9-18.6-26.8 - Tax paid $m -20.4-45.4-25.1-27.3 + Other op. cashflows $m -16.7 23.0 5.7 0.0 + Other op. cashflows $m 6.3 5.7 0.0 0.0 Total operating cashflows $m 197.1-47.6 194.3-37.7 Total operating cashflows $m 149.5 156.6 167.9 163.5 - Capex $m -18.3-22.2-57.2-62.8 - Capex $m -40.5-120.0-110.0-85.0 - Acquisitions / (Divestments) $m -10.2 1.5-10.3 0.0 - Acquisitions / (Divestments) $m -8.7-10.3 0.0 0.0 + Other inv. Cashflows $m 1.1-10.2 8.6 0.0 + Other inv. Cashflows $m -9.1 8.6 0.0 0.0 Total investing cashflows $m -27.4-30.9-58.8-62.8 Total investing cashflows $m -58.3-121.6-110.0-85.0 - Dividends paid $m 0.0-16.4-24.6-24.6 - Dividends paid $m -16.4-49.3-46.1-41.1 + Equity raisings $m 212.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 + Equity raisings $m 212.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - Debt raisings $m -295.1 0.1-50.0 125.2 - Debt raisings $m -295.0 75.2-11.8-37.4 + Other fin. cashflows $m 0.0 0.1-0.2 0.0 + Other fin. cashflows $m 0.1-0.2 0.0 0.0 Total Financing cashflow $m -83.1-16.3-74.8 100.5 Total Financing cashflow $m -99.4 25.7-57.9-78.5 Free Cashflow $m 178.8-69.8 137.1-100.5 Free Cashflow $m 109.0 36.6 57.9 78.5 Net Change in cash/debt $m 86.7-94.8 60.7 0.0 Net Change in cash/debt $m -8.1 60.7 0.0 0.0 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2017 Balance Sheet FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Cash $m 45.2 105.9 105.9 105.9 Receivables $m 37.9 37.3 37.5 37.7 Inventories $m 396.3 373.2 357.5 358.7 Investments $m 9.2 15.2 24.2 30.2 Property, plant & equipment $m 445.4 470.1 488.8 482.7 Intangibles $m 904.2 901.1 901.1 901.1 Other Assets $m 29.8 15.7 15.7 15.7 Total Assets $m 1,867.9 1,918.4 1,930.7 1,932.0 Payables $m 400.6 394.0 396.3 399.1 Short Term Debt $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Long Term Debt $m 147.3 223.0 205.5 167.4 Other Liabilities $m 212.3 177.8 192.6 201.4 Total Liabilities $m 760.1 794.8 794.4 768.0 Shareholders Funds $m 1,107.8 1,123.6 1,136.3 1,164.0 Minority Interests $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Shareholders Equity $m 1,107.8 1,123.6 1,136.3 1,164.0 Total Funds employed $m 1,255.0 1,346.6 1,341.8 1,331.5 16 March 2017 7
Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a neutral view on. The strongest style exposure is Valuations, indicating this stock is under-priced in the market relative to its peers. The weakest style exposure is Price Momentum, indicating this stock has had weak medium to long term returns which often persist into the future. 317/529 Global rank in Retailing % of BUY recommendations 43% (3/7) Number of Price Target downgrades 0 Number of Price Target upgrades 0 Fundamentals Attractive Quant Local market rank Global sector rank Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. Two rankings: Local market (Australia & NZ) and Global sector (Retailing) Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score. JB Hi-Fi 1.3 JB Hi-Fi Harvey Norman 1.0 Harvey Norman The Reject Shop Kathmandu 0.3 0.1 The Reject Shop Kathmandu -0.2-3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. JB Hi-Fi 0.2 JB Hi-Fi Harvey Norman 0.5 Harvey Norman The Reject Shop -0.6 The Reject Shop Kathmandu -1.4 Kathmandu -0.1-3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. Price to Earnings LTM Price to Cash FY0 Price to Earnings FY1 Price to Earnings NTM Piotroski Score Interest Cover Cash to Total Assets FY0 Quick Ratio (Worldscope) Negatives Positives -24% -26% -18% -18% 31% 29% 29% 28% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market. Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score -0.16 0.78-0.19-0.12-0.38-0.77 0.30-1.12-1.43 0.15 1.27 Percentile relative to sector(/529) Percentile relative to market(/422) 0 50 100 0 50 100 0 0 1 1 Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 16 March 2017 8
Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down 60 100% in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 40% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 30% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 31 December 2016 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 57.53% 50.72% 45.57% 42.28% 60.58% 52.79% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.71% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 33.90% 33.97% 43.04% 50.11% 37.23% 35.62% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.05% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 8.56% 15.30% 11.39% 7.61% 2.19% 11.59% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 4.63% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) MYR AU vs Small Ordinaries, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2017 12-month target price methodology MYR AU: A$1.21 based on a EV/EBIT methodology Company-specific disclosures: MYR AU: Macquarie and its affiliates collectively and beneficially own or control 1% or more of any class of Holdings Limited's equity securities. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 15-Sep-2016 MYR AU Neutral A$1.29 28-Jun-2016 MYR AU Neutral A$1.16 20-May-2016 MYR AU Neutral A$1.19 17-Mar-2016 MYR AU Neutral A$1.20 12-Feb-2016 MYR AU Neutral A$1.06 02-Sep-2015 MYR AU Underperform A$.96 19-Mar-2015 MYR AU Underperform A$1.31 02-Mar-2015 MYR AU Underperform A$1.54 10-Dec-2014 MYR AU Underperform A$1.50 12-Nov-2014 MYR AU Outperform A$2.08 18-Sep-2014 MYR AU Outperform A$2.39 11-Sep-2014 MYR AU Outperform A$2.38 22-May-2014 MYR AU Outperform A$2.48 21-Mar-2014 MYR AU Neutral A$2.45 Target price risk disclosures: MYR AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. 16 March 2017 9
This publication was disseminated on 16 March 2017 at 09:56 UTC. Macquarie Wealth Management Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Limited (MGL) total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group s Investment Banking activities. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited ABN 58 002 832 126, AFSL 238947, a Participant of the ASX and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Wealth Management, a division of Macquarie Equities Limited ABN 41 002 574 923 AFSL 237504 ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN 46 008 583 542, AFSL No. 237502) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989. Apart from Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (MBL), any MGL subsidiary noted in this research,, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research contains general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This research has been prepared for the use of the clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return e-mail and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Macquarie Group does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures Macquarie Group 16 March 2017 10