AUSTRALIA PMV AU Price (at 05:28, 21 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$13.79 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 16.46 12-month target A$ 17.19 12-month TSR % +28.7 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Retailing Market cap A$m 2,171 30-day avg turnover A$m 3.4 Number shares on issue m 157.4 Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Jul 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenue m 1,049.2 1,115.4 1,222.0 1,345.7 EBIT m 142.4 149.2 173.1 209.1 Reported profit m 103.9 109.0 128.0 155.0 Adjusted profit m 104.6 111.1 128.0 155.0 Gross cashflow m 128.5 138.6 165.0 194.3 CFPS 81.5 88.0 104.7 123.3 CFPS growth % 14.0 7.9 19.1 17.8 PGCFPS x 16.9 15.7 13.2 11.2 PGCFPS rel x 1.36 1.44 1.33 1.25 EPS adj 66.4 70.5 81.3 98.4 EPS adj growth % 16.2 6.3 15.2 21.1 PER adj x 20.8 19.5 17.0 14.0 PER rel x 0.94 1.05 1.07 1.04 Total DPS 48.0 50.8 58.5 70.8 Total div yield % 3.5 3.7 4.2 5.1 Franking % 100 100 100 100 ROA % 8.6 8.7 9.6 11.2 ROE % 7.8 8.2 9.2 10.6 EV/EBITDA x 12.1 11.4 9.6 8.1 Net debt/equity % -13.3-10.3-11.6-14.7 P/BV x 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 PMV AU vs Small Ordinaries, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2017 (all figures in AUD unless noted) 21 March 2017 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Smiggle proving a four leaf clover Event PMV reported 1H17 Retail sales $588.6m and EBIT $93m (sales preannounced, EBIT guidance $92-93m). Interim div 26cps vs. MQe 24.7cps. Impact Retail result pre-announced: The retail division reported 1H17 sales $588.6m (+7.1% vs. pcp on 26 wk LFL basis; pre-announced), GP $376.9m (+5.9%; MQe $382.6m) and EBIT $93m (+10.6%; guidance $92-93m; MQe $92.1m). PMV was impacted by weather-related clearance activity following a cold October, which resulted in GM 73bps below pcp. Reported group NPAT (including BRG and non-retail results) of $71.9m compares to MQe $72.8m, noting we did not include the $3m litigation expense. Interim div 26cps ahead of MQe 24.7cps. Ungeared, pre-tax OCF conversion was ~96%. Positive constant currency LFL sales: 1H17 constant currency LFL sales of +2.1% were a positive surprise for us given PMV were cycling such a strong pcp (+6.3%); we had expected 1H17 LFL sales to be negative. Aus LFL sales in apparel brands dropped to -4.5% for the month of October and -7.2% in southern capital cities due to unseasonably cold weather. Smiggle and Peter Alexander both had very strong LFL sales, with Just Jeans the best performing established brand and Portmans the worst. Smiggle to enter Ireland with more new territories to come: Smiggle will enter Ireland, its first Eurozone market, with an anticipated 15-20 stores within three years. Ireland has been the #1 market for international online orders from the UK site and in our view is a sensible way to test a broader European market entry. Commentary on the conference call suggested that additional markets will be announced at the FY17 result. Several tailwinds in 2H17: PMV did not experience poor Jan sales that other retailers reported and is entering 2H17 with a clean inventory position. In 2H17 PMV expect to benefit from the timing of Easter and alignment of school holidays as well as a later Mother s Day (especially for Peter Alexander). Earnings and target price revision FY17 EPS largely unchanged & FY18 +1.4%. SOTP target from $16.84 to $17.19 purely on BRG share price appreciation; no change to retail DCF. Price catalyst 12-month price target: A$17.19 based on a Sum of Parts methodology. Catalyst: FY17 result in Sept including new Smiggle territories. Action and recommendation The 1H17 result again demonstrated the ability of Smiggle and Peter Alexander to drive group profit growth, even in light of material GBP translation headwinds. Smiggle s global performance continues to go from strength to strength and outperform management s expectations. PMV s retail business is trading on an FY17 PER of 16.2x and FY18 of 13.8x, with EBIT growth of 13-15% supported by an international store rollout. We only have announced Smiggle territories in our forecasts so see earnings and valuation upside from here. Retain Outperform. Please refer to page 8 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
1H17 result overview The good... The not so good... The interesting... Result preannounced: The retail division reported 1H17 sales $588.6m (+7.1% vs. pcp on 26 wk LFL basis; pre-announced), GP $376.9m (+5.9%; MQe $382.6m) and EBIT $93m (+10.6%; guidance $92-93m; MQe $92.1m). Most operating cost items were in line with our forecasts outside of staff expenses, which were lower and made up for the GP difference vs. MQe. Reported group NPAT (including BRG and non-retail results) of $71.9m compares to MQe $72.8m, noting we did not include the $3m litigation expense. Interim dividend 26cps ahead of MQe 24.7cps. Ungeared, pre-tax OCF conversion was ~96%. Constant currency LFL sales were positive: 1H17 constant currency LFL sales of +2.1% was a positive surprise for us given PMV were cycling such a strong pcp (LFL +6.3%), so we had expected 1H17 LFL to be negative. Sales momentum into 2H17: PMV commented on the call that it did not experience poor January sales as reported by other retailers. No YTD update was provided outside of Jay Jays where LFL sales are +3.3%. Several tailwinds in 2H17: PMV expect to benefit from the timing of Easter and alignment of school holidays, as well as a later Mother s Day (especially for Peter Alexander) vs. pcp. Clean inventory position: PMV commented several times on the call that it is entering 2H17 with a clean inventory position despite being impacted by unseasonably cold weather in October and other one-off factors (see next column). More new Smiggle territories to come: PMV announced entry into Ireland, its first Eurozone market, with an anticipated 15-20 stores within three years. Commentary on the conference call suggested that additional markets will be announced at the FY17 result. Weather impacts GM: Aus LFL sales in apparel brands dropped to -4.5% for the month of October and -7.2% in southern capital cities following unseasonably cold weather. Ensuing industry-wide clearance activity resulted in GM 73bps below pcp. We note due to a longer-dated hedging policy this was also likely the first half that PMV has been impacted by a lower AUD; however, commentary on the conference call was that long lead times give buyers time to reengineer product costs. Sales impacted by three other one-off factors: Aside from weather, PMV have called out the earthquake in NZ (Nov-16), Hobart building collapse (Jul-16) and the Chadstone redevelopment (1Q17) as having an impact on sales. For example, Dotti total sales would have been +0.5% excluding these impacts vs. -0.4% reported and Jacqui E -2.5% vs. -4.1% reported. Amazon commentary on conf call: PMV do not appear concerned re the entry of Amazon as it own its brands. The Smiggle UK store is trading very well in a market where Amazon have strong presence; however, we note that Smiggle is a unique non-apparel brand. New staff hires will also help PMV compete. Established brands performance mixed: Just Jeans was the strongest performer with total sales +4.7%. Other established brands sales were flat to negative, noting the strong pcp especially for Portmans and some one-off impacts. Jay Jays sales trajectory is improving, with a weak 1Q17 followed by LFL +3% in 2Q and +3.3% first six weeks of 2H17. New hires to help drive growth: PMV have added experienced hires to its teams in Jacqui E and Portmans to revitalise its product development team in light of a very competitive sector. Management expect to return to positive sales growth in 4Q17 / 1H18. Smiggle & Peter Alexander from strength to strength: Peter Alexander had 'very strong' LFL sales growth, as did Smiggle globally. Management continue to be surprised by Smiggle UK s LFL performance, even in stores opened in 2014 and 2015. New Smiggle markets in Asia are trading well and the UK continues to outperform expectations. All rollout targets across both brands were reaffirmed and Ireland entry announced for Smiggle. One-off litigation costs: Statutory results included $3m of litigation costs. Buys Premier Retail head office: PMV have purchased a new head office for Premier Retail for $58m (>85% debt funded). Excluding oneoff relocation and make good costs, PMV expect the ongoing interest cost on this investment to be less than the escalating rent on the current head office. 21 March 2017 2
Profit & loss Fig 1 1H17 result vs. MQe July y/e; A$m 1H16a 1H17a 1H17e Reported Reported vs. pcp MQe vs. reported Sales 565.0 588.6 4.2% 588.6 0.0% EBITDA 109.2 112.6 3.1% 111.7 0.8% Depreciation 12.3 13.0 5.2% 13.4-3.0% Premier Retail EBIT 90.7 93.0 2.5% 92.1 1.0% Breville associate profit 8.5 9.3 9.4% 9.2 1.1% Group costs -2.7-3.0 11.1% -2.8 5.8% Other 0.1 0.4-0.0 - EBIT 96.9 99.7 2.9% 98.4 1.3% Net Interest expense -1.4-0.9-35.8% -1.6-44.5% Pre-Tax Profit 98.3 100.6 2.3% 100.0 0.6% Tax Expense 26.8 26.6-0.5% 27.3-2.3% Net Profit 71.5 74.0 3.4% 72.8 1.6% Reported Earnings 71.5 71.9 0.5% 72.8-1.3% Adjusted Earnings 71.5 74.0 3.4% 72.8 1.6% Gross Cashflow 83.7 87.2 4.1% 93.0-6.3% EPS (Adj/dil) 45.4 47.0 3.4% 46.2 1.6% DPS (Ordinary ) 23 26 13.0% 25 5.2% Source: Company information, Macquarie Research, March 2017 Cash flow & balance sheet Fig 2 Ungeared, pre-tax OCF conversion FY13(a) FY14(a) FY15(a) 1H16(a) 2H16(a) FY16(a) 1H17(a) EBITDA (historical ex-assoc.) 101.9 107.7 124.3 100.7 51.8 152.5 112.6 Operating Cashflow (reported) 89.1 83.4 103.1 74.9 28.8 103.7 82.5 + Tax Paid 8.5 13.7 22.3 26.1 10.9 37.8 26.4 + Net interest paid -6.9-5.9-4.7-1.5-1.4-3.3-1.4 Ungeared Pre tax Cashflow 90.7 91.1 120.8 99.4 38.3 138.2 107.5 Profit to cash Conversion 89.0% 84.7% 97.1% 98.7% 73.9% 90.6% 95.5% Source: Company information, Macquarie Research, March 2017 Fig 3 Key balance sheet items July y/e A$m FY13(a) FY14(a) FY15(a) 1H16(a) 2H16(a) FY16(a) 1H17(a) Cash 313.2 313.3 281.6 288.4 283.2 283.2 279.2 Working capital 36.3 48.1 52.4 52.0 67.1 67.1 70.7 Receivables 6.9 12.2 14.3 11.0 16.5 16.5 24.6 Inventory 84.0 98.5 111.8 112.6 123.6 123.6 126.9 Payables 54.5 62.5 73.7 71.6 73.0 73.0 80.8 PP&E 83.4 109.0 123.5 129.3 139.2 139.2 206.4 Intangibles 854.5 854.6 854.7 854.7 854.8 854.8 854.9 Borrowings 102.0 119.5 104.7 83.0 105.8 105.8 135.4 Shareholders Equity 1300.4 1298.5 1338.3 1366.8 1338.6 1338.6 1375.0 Source: Company information, Macquarie Research, March 2017 21 March 2017 3
Changes to earnings Fig 4 Changes to earnings July y/e; A$m FY16(a) FY17(e) FY18(e) Reported Old New Change Old New Change Sales 1049.2 1110.7 1115.4 0.4% 1206.8 1222.0 1.3% EBITDA 166.3 176.0 176.7 0.4% 200.0 210.0 5.0% Depreciation 23.9 26.7 27.4 2.7% 30.5 37.0 21.3% Premier Retail EBIT 133.3 139.3 138.8-0.4% 158.1 161.6 2.2% Breville associate profit 13.8 14.9 14.9 0.4% 16.4 16.6 0.9% Group costs -4.6-4.9-4.9 0.0% -5.1-5.1 0.0% Other -0.3 0.0 0.4-0.0 0.0 - EBIT 142.4 149.3 149.2-0.1% 169.5 173.1 2.1% Net Interest expense -3.0-3.3-1.2-64.6% -3.9-0.5-87.9% Pre-Tax Profit 145.4 152.6 150.4-1.4% 173.4 173.5 0.1% Tax Expense 40.8 41.3 39.3-4.9% 47.1 45.5-3.3% Net Profit 104.6 111.3 111.1-0.2% 126.3 128.0 1.4% Reported Earnings 103.9 111.3 109.0-2.0% 126.3 128.0 1.4% Adjusted Earnings 104.6 111.3 111.1-0.2% 126.3 128.0 1.4% Gross Cashflow 131.5 138.5 137.0-1.1% 162.5 171.2 5.3% EPS (Adj/dil) 66.4 70.6 70.5-0.2% 80.2 81.3 1.4% DPS (Ordinary ) 48 49 51 2.7% 56 59 4.3% DPS (Special) 0 0 0-0 0 - EBITDA/Sales 15.8% 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 16.6% 17.2% 0.6% EBIT/Sales 13.6% 13.4% 13.4% -0.1% 14.0% 14.2% 0.1% Source: Company information, Macquarie Research, March 2017 We have only made very minor changes to our Retail earnings in FY17. Other changes include: Smiggle Europe: We assume 20 stores in Ireland in three years vs. guidance 15-20. We have also modestly increased our capex assumptions in line with this. New Smiggle regions: Our forecasts only include announced regions, with store openings in line with management guidance. New building purchase: With the $58m purchase of the Premier Retail head office, our depreciation charge has increased beyond FY17. PMV expect this to be a net positive for the business excluding one-off relocation and make-good costs, with interest paid < rent inflation. Dividend: Small increase in our payout ratio assumption from 70% to 72% going forward. Capex: We have increased our capex assumptions in outer years. 21 March 2017 4
Valuation & price target We use a SOTP valuation to value PMV, ascribing individual values to the retail business, BRG shareholding and PMV s cash at the group level. Fig 5 Macquarie valuation summary 21-Mar-17 Retail Division DCF $12.53 1H17 PMV investments cash per share $1.77 BRG equity value less CGT $2.16 Total value $16.46 Retail Division DCF rolled fwd 12 months $13.25 12-mth PT including DCF roll-fwd $17.19 BRG inputs Last close ($) $10.10 CGT estimate per BRG share ($) $0.57 # shares owned by PMV (m) 35.8 MV of PMV stake post CGT ($m) 341.1 Retail group multiples Adjustments Market cap 1513.5 Price $9.68 Net debt 116.4 Multiples (x) FY17e FY18e FY19e PER 16.2 13.8 11.4 EV/EBIT 11.7 10.1 8.3 EV/EBITDA 9.8 8.2 6.9 Source: Macquarie Research, March 2017 To value the retail business we utilise DCF methodology to best capture the long-term value created by the Smiggle rollout. Our key DCF inputs are unchanged: RFR 3.25%, beta 1.28, ERP 5%, gearing 20% (D/D+E), cost of debt 5.5% pre-tax, TGR 1.5%, and WACC 8.5%. We arrive at a DCF valuation of $12.53 per share (prev: $12.55), which we roll forward 12 months to arrive at the $13.25 used to set our price target. PMV s 1H17 cash position for its investment business was $279m, which equates to $1.77 per share (prev: $1.79; FY15). We value PMV s shareholding in BRG the last close of $10.10 less our estimate of the capital gains tax were PMV to sell its stake as at 31-Jan-17. Net of our CGT estimate, the BRG holding equates to $2.16 per share (prev: $1.78). This is the largest change in our valuation from January, with BRG s last close at that point $8.38. Our SOTP valuation for PMV is $16.46 per share (prev: $16.12) and our price target of $17.19 (prev: $16.84) incorporates the rolling forward of our retail DCF valuation by 12 months. 21 March 2017 5
(PMV:$13.79) 21-Mar-17 Interim results 1H/16A 2H/16A 1H/17A 2H/17E Profit & Loss 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenue 565.0 484.2 588.6 526.8 Revenue $m 1049.2 1115.4 1222.0 1345.7 EBITDA $m 109.2 57.1 112.6 64.0 EBITDA (incl. assoc.) $m 166.3 176.7 210.0 248.4 Depreciation $m 12.3 11.6 13.0 14.5 Depreciation $m 23.9 27.4 37.0 39.3 Amortisation $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amortisation $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT (incl. assoc.) $m 96.9 45.5 99.7 49.5 EBIT (incl. assoc.) $m 142.4 149.2 173.1 209.1 Net Interest expense $m -1.4-1.6-0.9-0.3 Net interest expense $m -3.0-1.2-0.5-1.6 Pre-Tax Profit $m 98.3 47.1 100.6 49.8 Pre-Tax Profit $m 145.4 150.4 173.5 210.7 Tax Expense $m 26.8 14.0 26.6 12.6 Tax Expense $m 40.8 39.3 45.5 55.7 Net Profit $m 71.5 33.0 74.0 37.2 Net Profit $m 104.6 111.1 128.0 155.0 Outside equity interests $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Outside equity interests $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Abn/Extra $m 0.0-0.7-2.1 0.0 Net Abnormals/Extra. $m -0.7-2.1 0.0 0.0 Reported Earnings $m 71.5 32.3 71.9 37.2 Reported Earnings $m 103.9 109.0 128.0 155.0 Adjusted Earnings $m 71.5 33.0 74.0 37.2 Adjusted Earnings $m 104.6 111.1 128.0 155.0 Gross Cashflow $m 83.7 47.7 87.2 49.9 Gross Cashflow $m 131.5 137.0 171.2 204.4 EPS (Adj/dil) c 45.4 21.0 47.0 23.6 EPS (adj/diluted) c 66.4 70.5 81.3 98.4 EPS growth % 25.4 0.2 3.4 12.5 EPS growth % 16.2 6.3 15.2 21.1 CFPS c 53.2 30.3 55.3 31.7 PE (adj) x 20.8 19.5 17.0 14.0 CFPS Growth % 10.6 9.9 4.1 4.5 CFPS c 83.3 87.0 108.7 129.8 EBITDA/Sales % 19.3 11.8 19.1 12.2 CFPS Growth % 10.3 4.5 25.0 19.4 EBIT/Sales % 17.1 9.4 16.9 9.4 PGCFPS x 16.6 15.9 12.7 10.6 Earnings Split % 68.4 31.6 66.6 33.4 DPS c 48.0 50.8 58.5 70.8 Revenue Growth % 15.1 6.4 4.2 8.8 Yield % 3.5 3.7 4.2 5.1 EBIT Growth % 27.1 18.8 2.9 8.9 Franking % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 AUD:GBP 0.50 0.59 0.57 0.54 Profit and Loss ratios 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Cashflow Analysis 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenue Growth % 10.9 6.3 9.6 10.1 EBIT Growth % 24.3 4.8 16.0 20.8 Pre-tax Profit $m 145.4 150.4 173.5 210.7 EBITDA/Sales % 15.8 15.8 17.2 18.5 Depreciation & Amortisation $m 23.9 27.4 37.0 39.3 EBIT/Sales % 13.6 13.4 14.2 15.5 Tax Paid $m -37.8-40.8-39.3-45.5 Effective tax rate % 28.1 26.1 26.2 26.4 Gross cashflow $m 131.5 137.0 171.2 204.4 Payout ratio % 72.3 72.0 72.0 72.0 Changes in working capital $m -14.6-4.2-6.8-7.9 EV/EBITA x 13.9 13.5 11.5 9.3 Other $m -13.2 6.8 0.0 0.0 EV/EBITDA x 11.9 11.4 9.5 7.8 Operating Cashflow $m 103.7 139.6 164.4 196.5 EV/Sales x 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 Acquisitions $m 0.0-5.0-6.0-5.8 Capex - Plant & Equip. $m -45.0-103.0-55.6-48.6 Balance sheet ratios Asset Sales $m 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 ROE % 7.8 8.2 9.2 10.6 Other $m 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 ROA % 10.4 10.5 11.7 13.8 Investing cashflow $m -34.2-108.0-61.6-54.4 ROFE % 12.3 12.5 13.9 16.5 Dividend (ordinary) $m -69.0-73.5-78.6-88.2 Net Debt $m -177.4-141.1-165.4-219.2 Equity raised $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/Equity % < 0 < 0 < 0 < 0 Other $m -219.2 5.6 0.0 0.0 Interest Cover x nmf nmf nmf nmf Financing cashflow $m -288.1-67.9-78.6-88.2 Price/NTA x 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.4 NTA per share $ 3.07 3.30 3.61 4.03 Net Change in cash/debt $m -218.6-36.3 24.3 53.9 EFPOWA m 157.9 157.5 157.5 157.5 Historical performance 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A Balance Sheet 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Cash $m 283.2 303.2 323.2 370.2 Revenue $m 843.2 888.4 945.7 1049.2 Receivables $m 16.5 17.5 19.2 21.1 EBITDA $m 108.4 120.2 137.1 166.3 Inventories $m 123.6 131.4 143.9 158.5 Depreciation/Amortisation $m 19.2 21.9 22.6 23.9 Investments $m 213.4 218.4 224.3 230.2 EBIT $m 89.2 98.3 114.5 142.4 Property, plant & equipment $m 139.2 214.8 233.4 242.7 Net interest expense $m -6.9-4.6-4.1-3.0 Intangibles $m 854.8 854.8 854.8 854.8 Pre-Tax Profit $m 96.1 102.9 118.6 145.4 Other Assets $m 32.2 28.9 28.9 28.9 Tax Expense $m 26.8 26.7 28.8 40.8 Total Assets $m 1662.9 1769.0 1827.8 1906.5 Net Profit $m 69.3 76.2 89.8 104.6 Payables $m 73.0 77.6 85.0 93.6 Net Abn/Extra $m 105.2-3.2-1.7-0.7 Short Term Debt $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Long Term Debt $m 105.8 162.1 157.9 151.0 EPS (adj/dil) c 44.2 48.6 57.1 66.4 Other Liabilities $m 145.6 155.2 161.4 171.6 EPS growth % 1.5 9.9 17.6 16.2 Total Liabilities $m 324.3 394.9 404.3 416.2 Ordinary DPS c 38.0 40.0 51.0 48.0 Shareholders Funds $m 1338.6 1374.1 1423.5 1490.3 EBITDA/Sales % 12.9 13.5 14.5 15.8 Minority Interests $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT/Sales % 10.6 11.1 12.1 13.6 Total Shareholders Equity $m 1338.6 1374.1 1423.5 1490.3 ROE % 5.4 5.9 6.8 7.8 ROFE % 8.2 9.0 10.1 12.3 Total Funds employed $m 1,662.9 1,769.0 1,827.8 1,906.5 EFPOWA m 156.7 156.7 157.6 157.9 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2017. 21 March 2017 6
Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a neutral view on. The strongest style exposure is Quality, indicating this stock is likely to have a superior and more stable underlying earnings stream. The weakest style exposure is Earnings Momentum, indicating this stock has received earnings downgrades and is not well liked by sell side analysts. 283/529 Global rank in Retailing % of BUY recommendations 40% (4/10) Number of Price Target downgrades 0 Number of Price Target upgrades 0 Fundamentals Attractive Quant Local market rank Global sector rank Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. Two rankings: Local market (Australia & NZ) and Global sector (Retailing) Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score. JB Hi-Fi 1.1 JB Hi-Fi Super Retail Group 0.6 Super Retail Group The Reject Shop Kathmandu 0.3 0.1 0.0 The Reject Shop Kathmandu -3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. JB Hi-Fi Super Retail Group The Reject Shop -0.6 0.2 0.4 JB Hi-Fi Super Retail Group The Reject Shop Kathmandu -1.4-1.0 Kathmandu -3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. Price to Sales NTM Price to Book NTM Dividend Yield NTM Price to Book FY0 Turnover(USD) 125 Day Return on Equity FY1 ROIC 12m Fwd ROIC FY1-27% -29% Negatives Positives -24% -24% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 31% 30% 30% 30% How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market. Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score 0.00-0.15 0.10-0.31-0.52-0.45 0.38 0.11-1.41 0.12-0.47 Percentile relative to sector(/529) Percentile relative to market(/422) 0 50 100 0 50 100 0 0 1 1 Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 21 March 2017 7
Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down 60 100% in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 40% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 30% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 31 December 2016 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 57.53% 50.72% 45.57% 42.28% 60.58% 52.79% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.71% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 33.90% 33.97% 43.04% 50.11% 37.23% 35.62% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.05% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 8.56% 15.30% 11.39% 7.61% 2.19% 11.59% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 4.63% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) PMV AU vs Small Ordinaries, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2017 12-month target price methodology PMV AU: A$17.19 based on a Sum of Parts methodology Company-specific disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 08-Feb-2017 PMV AU Outperform A$16.84 22-Sep-2016 PMV AU Neutral A$16.43 28-Apr-2016 PMV AU Neutral A$16.35 19-Mar-2016 PMV AU Outperform A$16.18 14-Oct-2015 PMV AU Outperform A$13.14 23-Mar-2015 PMV AU Neutral A$12.25 17-Sep-2014 PMV AU Neutral A$10.80 25-Mar-2014 PMV AU Neutral A$9.30 Target price risk disclosures: PMV AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Limited (MGL) total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group s Investment Banking activities. 21 March 2017 8
This publication was disseminated on 21 March 2017 at 09:20 UTC. Macquarie Wealth Management General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited ABN 58 002 832 126, AFSL 238947, a Participant of the ASX and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Wealth Management, a division of Macquarie Equities Limited ABN 41 002 574 923 AFSL 237504 ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN 46 008 583 542, AFSL No. 237502) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989. Apart from Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (MBL), any MGL subsidiary noted in this research,, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research contains general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This research has been prepared for the use of the clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return e-mail and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Macquarie Group does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures Macquarie Group Macquarie Group 21 March 2017 9