Global Markets Update QNB Economics 30 October 2016
Executive Summary Key Takeaways Global bond yields jumped on stronger than expected global activity data No major movements in global currencies Japanese equities gained as a result of the weaker yen; Saudi stocks rose after the successful issuance of international bonds Oil prices fell after a reported disagreement between OPEC members about production cuts This week will be dominated by activity data in advanced economies and central bank meetings in the UK and US Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics 2
Global bond yields jumped on stronger than expected global activity data Global Benchmark Yields (%, local currencies) Maturity 21-Oct 28-Oct Change in Yield (bps) Advanced Economies Week MTD* YTD* US 10 yrs 1.73 1.85 11.2 25.2-42.3 Germany 10 yrs 0.01 0.17 16.1 28.6-46.2 France 10 yrs 0.29 0.47 18.0 28.1-52.1 Italy 10 yrs 1.37 1.59 21.1 39.7-1.1 Japan 10 yrs - 0.05-0.04 1.0 4.7-30.7 UK 10 yrs 1.09 1.26 17.3 51.4-70.0 Emerging Markets Bahrain*** 7 yrs 5.08 5.11 3.4-17.7-74.9 Brazil 10 yrs 11.17 11.41 24.3-17.4-510.2 China 10 yrs 2.66 2.71 4.8-2.4-14.8 India 10 yrs 6.76 6.79 3.4-2.3-96.7 Indonesia 10 yrs 7.08 7.29 20.8 22.6-145.8 Nigeria 9 yrs 15.39 15.55 16.2 33.2 450.7 Qatar*** 14 yrs 3.67 3.71 4.0 3.8-59.9 Russia 10 yrs 8.36 8.54 18.0 38.0-103.0 Saudi Arabia** 10 yrs 4.52 4.60 8.4-8.9 50.9 South Africa 10 yrs 8.83 8.88 5.0 20.8-91.9 Turkey 10 yrs 9.85 10.09 24.0 37.0-65.0 Abu Dhabi*** 2 yrs 1.37 1.37-0.2 0.2-31.1 Dubai*** 4 yrs 2.74 2.72-2.4-0.4-18.1 UK GDP was stronger than expected at 2.0% versus 1.2%, reducing the likelihood of further stimulus from the Bank of England US GDP came in stronger than expected at 2.9% versus 2.6%; markets are currently pricing in a 69% probability of a rate hike by year end Brazilian yields rose more sharply as central bank s minutes hinted at a slower pace of easing Legend > 2 standard deviation fall in yields > 1 standard deviation fall in yields < 1 standarad deviation change in yields > 1 standard deviation rise in yields > 2 standard deviation rise in yields Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; *Month to Date and Year to Date; **10-year swap rate; ***USD denominated 3
No major movements in global currencies Global Exchange Rates vs USD 21-Oct 28-Oct Change (%) Advanced Economies Week MTD YTD US Dollar Index 98.70 98.35-0.4 3.0-0.3 Euro Area* 1.09 1.10 0.9-2.2 1.1 Japan 103.80 104.74-0.9-3.2 14.8 UK* 1.22 1.22-0.4-6.1-17.3 Emerging Markets Brazil 3.16 3.20-1.4 1.9 23.8 China 6.74 6.78-0.5-1.6-4.2 Egypt 8.88 8.88 0.1 0.1-11.8 Indonesia 13,042 13,051-0.1-0.1 5.6 India 66.89 66.78 0.2-0.3-0.9 Kuwait 0.30 0.30-0.1-0.6 0.0 Nigeria 316.86 316.75 0.0-0.6-37.1 Russia 62.37 62.90-0.8 0.0 15.3 Turkey 3.08 3.11-0.8-3.4-6.1 South Africa 13.98 13.84 1.1-0.8 11.8 UAE 3.67 3.67 Bahrain 0.38 0.38 Oman 0.39 0.39 PEGGED Qatar 3.64 3.64 Saudi Arabia 3.75 3.75 Global currencies were stable Legend > 2 standard deviation strengthening of currency > 1 standard deviation strengthening of currency < 1 standarad deviation change in currency > 1 standard deviation weakening of currency > 2 standard deviation weakening of currency Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; * Exchange rate quoted as amount of USD per currency unit in line with market convention, other exchange rates are amount of currency per USD 4
Japanese equities gained as a result of the weaker yen; Saudi stocks rose after the successful issuance of international bonds Global Equity Indices 21-Oct 28-Oct Change (%) Advanced Economies Week MTD YTD US (S&P 500) 2,141 2,126-0.7-1.9 4.0 Europe (STOXX 50) 3,078 3,079 0.1 2.6-5.8 Japan (Nikkei 225) 17,185 17,446 1.5 6.1-8.3 UK (FTSE 100) 7,020 6,996-0.3 1.4 12.1 Emerging Markets Bahrain (BB) 1,152 1,148-0.3-0.2-5.6 Brazil (IBOVESPA) 64,108 64,308 0.3 10.2 48.3 China (Shanghai ) 3,091 3,104 0.4 3.3-12.3 Egypt (EGX 30) 8,160 8,343 2.2 5.9 19.1 India (CNX NIFTY) 8,693 8,638-0.6 0.3 8.7 Indonesia (Jakarta) 5,409 5,410 0.0 0.8 17.8 KSA (Tadawul) 5,652 5,936 5.0 5.6-14.1 Kuwait (KSE) 5,321 5,398 1.4 0.0-3.9 Nigeria (All Share) 27,598 27,294-1.1-3.7-4.7 Oman (Muscat 30) 5,562 5,497-1.2-4.0 1.7 Qatar (Doha 20) 10,438 10,371-0.6-0.6-0.6 Russia (MICEX) 1,958 1,982 1.2 0.2 12.5 S.Africa (J'burg 40) 45,069 44,308-1.7-2.5-3.3 Turkey (Istanbul 100) 78,844 78,333-0.6 2.4 9.2 UAE (Abu Dhabi) 4,294 4,293 0.0-4.1-0.3 UAE (Dubai) 3,340 3,318-0.7-4.5 5.3 Egyptian equities continued to climb on anticipation of currency devaluation by the central bank Legend > 2 standard deviation rise in equity index > 1 standard deviation rise in equity index < 1 standarad deviation change in equity index > 1 standard deviation fall in equity index > 2 standard deviation fall in equity index Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics 5
Oil prices fell after a reported disagreement between OPEC members about production cuts Commodity Prices* 21-Oct 28-Oct Change (%) Energy Week MTD YTD Brent 51.8 49.7-4.0 1.3 33.3 WTI 50.9 48.7-4.2 1.0 31.5 LNG 6.9 7.0 1.2 20.9 0.6 Precious Metals Gold 1,266 1,275 0.7-3.1 20.2 Silver 17.5 17.8 1.2-7.4 28.2 Industrial Copper 4,635 4,843 4.5-0.5 2.9 Steel 482 468-2.9-13.3 23.5 Aluminum 1,625 1,719 5.8 2.7 14.1 Wheat 415 409-1.4 1.6-13.1 Corn 353 355 0.7 5.4-1.0 Cocoa 2,725 2,756 1.1-0.2-14.2 During technical talks in Vienna to finalise OPEC s production cuts, Iran and Iraq reportedly refused to reduce oil production US crude oil inventories gained by 1.1m barrels (0.5m decrease was expected) US gasoline inventories contracted by 0.5m barrels (2.0m decrease was expected) Legend > 2 standard deviation rise in price > 1 standard deviation rise in price < 1 standarad deviation change in price > 1 standard deviation fall in price > 2 standard deviation fall in price Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; * Spot prices or nearest expiring future 6
This week will be dominated by activity data in advanced economies and central bank meetings in the UK and US Last Week s Data Review Date Country Event Period Consensus Actual Previous Oct 24 Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Oct 51.7 50.4 Oct 24 Euro Markit Manufacturing PMI Oct 52.7 53.3 52.6 Oct 24 US Markit Manufacturing PMI Oct 51.5 53.2 51.5 Oct 28 US Real GDP (QoQ Annualised) Q3 2.5% 2.9% 1.4% Forthcoming Economic Events Date Country Event Period Consensus Actual Previous Oct 31 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) Sep 0.9% 1.3% Oct 31 Euro CPI Estimate (YoY) Oct 0.5% 0.4% Oct 31 Euro GDP (SA, QoQ Annualised) Q3 0.3% 0.3% Nov 01 China Manufacturing PMI Oct 50.3 50.4 Nov 02 UK Bank of England Rate Decision Nov-02 0.25% 0.25% Nov 02 US FOMC Rate Decision Nov-02 0.5% 0.5% Nov 03 US Durable Goods Orders Sept -0.1% -0.1% Nov 04 US Non-farm payrolls Oct 175k 156k Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics 7
Two-Year Performance of Major Asset Classes Sovereign 10-Year Bond Yields Equities 3 2 US Germany 1900 1800 Advanced Economies* (left axis) Emerging Markets** (right axis) 1100 1000 1700 1 1600 900 0 10/14 01/15 04/15 07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16 1500 800-1 Exchange Rates 1400 10/14 01/15 04/15 07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16 Commodities 700 105 100 95 90 85 80 Dollar Index (left axis) EUR:USD (right axis) 1.3 1.2 1.1 90 80 70 60 50 40 Oil (left axis) Food*** (right axis) 400 300 75 30 70 10/14 01/15 04/15 07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16 1 20 10/14 01/15 04/15 07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16 200 Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; * MSCI World Index; ** MSCI Emerging Markets Index;; ***S&P GSCI Agricultural Index, which includes wheat corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar, cocoa and cotton 8
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