AUSTRALIA EVN AU Price (at 3:18, 26 May 215 GMT) Neutral A$1.1 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.11 12-month target A$ 1.1 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m 1,583 3-day avg turnover A$m 3.5 Number shares on issue m 1,439 Investment fundamentals Year end 3 Jun 214A 215E 216E 217E Revenue m 634.4 652.9 1,51. 1,629.5 EBIT m 66.2 11.2 385.4 495.3 Reported profit m 5. 89.3 36.2 332. Adjusted profit m 52.1 89.3 36.2 332. Gross cashflow m 22.1 251.1 777. 747.4 CFPS 27.6 34. 53.2 51.2 CFPS growth %.2 23.2 56.5-3.8 PGCFPS x 4. 3.2 2.1 2.1 PGCFPS rel x.4.33.24.28 EPS adj 7.1 12.1 24.7 22.7 EPS adj growth % 13.2 7.3 14. -7.8 PER adj x 15.5 9.1 4.5 4.8 PER rel x.84.51.32.4 Total DPS 2. 2. 2. 2. Total div yield % 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Franking % ROA % 6.2 9. 22.2 19.5 ROE % 6.8 1.8 29.8 19.5 EV/EBITDA x 4.1 3.4 2.1 1.9 Net debt/equity % 16.5 8.1 6.7-29.5 P/BV x 1..9 1..9 EVN AU vs Small Ordinaries, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, May 215 (all figures in AUD unless noted) 26 May 215 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Cowal pushes EVN beyond 8kozpa Event EVN has announced it has reached an agreement with Barrick Gold to acquire the Cowal gold mine for US$55m. The acquisition will be funded via an A$248m rights issue and increased debt facilities. Cowal produces 24-26kozpa and should lift EVN s annual production above 8kozpa. Impact Cowal acquisition in detail: EVN has announced it will acquire the Cowal gold mine for US$55m. Including stamp duty the total acquisition cost to EVN is estimated at A$752m. The deal requires both FIRB and NSW Government approval. We do not expect any impediments to the transaction proceeding and expect completion to occur as scheduled in late July. A game-changing acquisition: The acquisition of Cowal is a game-changer for EVN. The mine is expected to produce 24-26kozpa over the next three years, lifting EVN s group production to over 8kozpa. Production from Cowal is more than double EVN s next largest asset and accounts for more than 3% of EVN s gold reserves. Increased gearing in the short-term: EVN is funding the A$752m total acquisition cost through an A$248m rights issue, A$14m drawn from its existing debt facility and a A$4m new five-year term loan. EVN s debt will increase to over $6m as a result, increasing gearing to ~3%. However, on completion of the La Mancha Australia acquisition, La Mancha will subscribe to a placement in line with the rights issue, raising $112m and lifting La Mancha s equity stake back to 31%. The cash injection combined with operating cash flow should see EVN return to net cash in ~18 months. Earnings and target price revision Incorporating the Cowal acquisition and recent changes to our A$/US$ forecasts has translated to 9% and 15% cuts to our FY15 and FY16 EPS estimates. Our earnings for FY17 and FY18 rises ~2% after incorporating Cowal into our forecasts. Our price target falls from $1.15 to $1.1 as a result of these changes. Price catalyst 12-month price target: A$1.1 based on a DCF methodology. Catalyst: Successfully completing the Cowal and La Mancha acquisitions presents the next major catalyst for EVN. The shareholder meeting for La Mancha is expected to occur in early August. Action and recommendation Downgrading from Outperform to Neutral: Incorporating the Cowal acquisition was effectively NPV neutral with the modest cut to our target reflecting changes to our A$/US$ forecasts. The stock is now trading in line with our price target on a TERP basis and we are downgrading our recommendation to Neutral. We concede that EVN could deliver both reserve and resource upgrades and cost out opportunities at Cowal, which presents upside risk to our base case for the stock. Please refer to page 7 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
Acquisition of Cowal a game changer EVN has announced it has reached an agreement with Barrick Gold (ABX CN, C$15.11, Underperform, TP: C$11., Ron Stewart) to acquire the Cowal open pit gold mine in NSW for US$55m. Cowal currently produces 24-26kozpa at an AISC of A$85-9/oz. EVN will fund the acquisition through the combination of a A$248m rights issue at $.9 and $54m of debt, $4m of which is from a new five-year debt facility. Fig 1 Cowal acquisition funded from debt and equity Sources of funds A$m Uses of funds A$m Rights Issue 248 Acquisition cost 694 Existing debt drawdown 14 Transaction costs including stamp duty 58 New Debt facility 4 Total Sources 752 Total uses 752 Source: Macquarie Research, May 215 The Cowal mine is expected to account for around 3% of EVN s total production and EVN s current gold reserves. Significantly the AISC at Cowal of A$85-9/oz is lower than EVN s average production cost. Incorporating Cowal into our forecasts for EVN pushes group production above 8kozpa for the next three years. Fig 2 EVN gold production by project post Cowal transaction 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Cracow (koz) Pajingo (koz) Edna May (koz) Mt Rawdon (koz) Mt Carlton (koz) Frog's Leg (koz) White Foil (koz) Cowal (koz) AISC (A$/oz) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 FY1 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e FY2e FY21e FY22e Source: Macquarie Research, May 215 EVN has doubled group production and reduced costs The combination of the La Mancha Australia and Cowal has translated to an effective doubling of EVN s gold production outlook. We had previously expected EVN to produce around 43kozpa for the next two years before declining output at Edna May saw production fall to 34kozpa by FY19. Incorporating the La Mancha Australia assets and Cowal has translated to 93-14% increases in our production forecasts for EVN over the next four years. Fig 3 EVN production forecasts pre and post La Mancha and Cowal acquisitions Production changes FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e Production (koz) - pre La Mancha and Cowal 431 432 433 416 34 Production (koz) - post La Mancha and Cowal 431 843 834 87 693 Change % 95% 93% 94% 14% Source: Macquarie Research, May 215 26 May 215 2
Importantly, both the La Mancha assets, White Foil and Frog s Leg, and the Cowal mine are expected to produce at an All-in sustaining cost (AISC) below A$1,/oz. Incorporating the lower cost production from both the La Mancha and Cowal assets reduces our average AISC for EVN by 7-12% for EVN over the next four years. Fig 4 EVN AISC forecasts pre and post La Mancha and Cowal acquisitions AISC FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e AISC (A$/oz) - pre La Mancha and Cowal 1,6 1,99 1,14 1,128 1,18 AISC (A$/oz) - post La Mancha and Cowal 1,49 1,8 1,25 1,17 1,4 Change (1%) (8%) (7%) (1%) (12%) Source: Macquarie Research, May 215 The mine life of Cowal on reserves is currently six years, hence the acquisition does not materially add much to the longevity of EVN s production profile beyond 22, although EVN is confident it can extend the life of Cowal through a cutback of the open pit. Cowal accounts for 31% of EVN s total reserves and 18% of resources. Fig 5 EVN reserves by project Fig 6 EVN gold resources by project White Foil 7% Cowal 31% Frog's Leg 9% Cracow 5% Pajingo 3% Edna May 8% Mt Carlton 19% Mt Rawdon 18% White Foil 18% Cowal 18% Twin Hills 4% Frog's Leg 8% Cracow 7% Mt Carlton 13% Edna May 11% Mt Rawdon 12% Pajingo 9% Source: EVN, Macquarie Research, May 215 Source: EVN, Macquarie Research, May 215 La Mancha to retain 31% equity stake La Mancha has indicted it will effectively participate in the rights issue on completion of the La Mancha Australia acquisition, which is expected to occur in late August. La Mancha was expected to have a 31% equity stake in EVN post the La Mancha Australia acquisition and indicated a willingness to support future deals up to $1m. Under the terms of the Cowal rights issue, La Mancha will subscribe to a $112m placement that will reinstate its 31% equity interest, with the placement expected to occur before the end of the September quarter. At the completion of the La Mancha placement, EVN s total shares on issue should have increased to 1,438m. Earning and valuation downgrade Incorporating the Cowal acquisition and recent changes to our A$/US$ forecasts has translated to 9% and 15% cuts to our FY15 and FY16 EPS estimates. Our earnings for FY17 and FY18 rises ~2% after incorporating Cowal into our forecasts. Our price target falls from $1.15 to $1.1 as a result of these changes Fig 7 Earnings and valuation cuts reflect exchange rate adjustments EPS changes FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e Price target EPS (Ac) - old 13.4 29.1 22.2 2.4 1.15 EPS (Ac) new 12.1 24.7 22.7 2.9 1.1 Change (9%) (15%) 2% 2% (4%) Source: Macquarie Research, May 215 26 May 215 3
Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 Jun 18 Sep 18 Dec 18 Mar 19 Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 2 Jun 2 Sep 2 Dec 2 Mar 1 Sep 1 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Sep 12 Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Sep 15 Mar 16 Sep 16 Mar 17 Sep 17 Mar 18 Sep 18 Mar 19 Sep 19 Mar 2 Sep 2 Macquarie Wealth Management Fig 8 EVN quarterly production outlook Fig 9 EVN annual production outlook 25 2 Cracow (koz) Pajingo (koz) Edna May (koz) Mt Rawdon (koz) Mt Carlton (koz) Frog's Leg (koz) White Foil (koz) Cowal (koz) 9 8 Cracow (koz) Pajingo (koz) Edna May (koz) Mt Rawdon (koz) Mt Carlton (koz) Frog's Leg (koz) White Foil (koz) Cowal (koz) 7 15 6 5 1 4 3 5 2 1 Source: EVN, Macquarie Research, May 215 Source: EVN, Macquarie Research, May 215 Fig 1 EVN capex profile Fig 11 EVN cash flow outlook 25. 2. Cracow (A$m) Pajingo (A$m) Edna May (A$m) Mt Rawdon (A$m) Mt Carlton (A$m) Frog's Leg (A$m) White Foil (A$m) Cowal (A$m) 1. 8. Operating cash flow (A$m) Free cash flow (A$m) 6. 15. 4. 2. 1.. 5. -2. -4.. FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e FY2e Source: EVN, Macquarie Research, May 215 Source: EVN, Macquarie Research, May 215 Fig 12 EVN net cash build vs market cap Fig 13 EVN NPV breakdown 25 Net cash (A$M) Market cap (A$m) 2 15 1 5-5 -1 Cowal 33% White Foil 7% Frog's Leg 1% Cracow 9% Mt Carlton 12% Pajingo 8% Edna May 6% Mt Rawdon 15% Source: EVN, Macquarie Research, May 215 Source: EVN, Macquarie Research, May 215 26 May 215 4
Fig 14 EVN summary financials ASX: EVN Price: (A$ps) 1.1 Year end: Jun Rating: Outperform Up/dn TSR Mkt cap: (A$m) 1,582 Diluted shares (m) 1,438.3 Target: 1.1 % 2% ASSUMPTIONS FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e ATTRIBUTABLE MINE OUTPUT FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e Exchange Rate A$/US$ 1.3 1.3.92.84.72.7 Gold production (equ) Spot Gold (US$/oz) 1,672 1,64 1,295 1,217 1,3 1,48 Cracow (koz) 78.8 12.6 95.1 88.8 94.7 96.3 Spot Gold (A$/oz) 1,631 1,563 1,413 1,451 1,89 2,22 Pajingo (koz) 57.2 85.9 6.8 68.7 75.1 75.7 RATIO ANALYSIS FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e Edna May (koz) 73.3 86.2 8.2 98.3 87.4 91.3 Diluted share capital m 539.1 77.9 732.5 738.4 1,459.9 1,459.9 Mt Rawdon (koz) 71.2 16.1 13.8 1.2 11.2 95.8 EPS (diluted and pre sig. items) A 11.8 6.3 7.1 12.1 24.7 22.7 Mt Carlton (koz). 12.1 88. 75.1 73.3 73.3 P/E x 9.4x 17.5x 15.5x 9.1x 4.5x 4.8x Frog's Leg (koz).... 15. 14.7 CFPS A 34.9 32.9 26.7 32.4 49.1 59.5 White Foil (koz).... 49.7 49.7 P/CF x 3.2x 3.3x 4.1x 3.4x 2.2x 1.8x Cowal (koz).... 256.9 247.4 DPS A. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. Total (koz) 28.4 392.9 427.7 431.1 843.3 834.4 Dividend yield %.%.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% Cash costs - AISC Franking Level % % % % % % % Cracow (A$/oz) 944 1,246 1,52 1,97 1,52 1,6 Book value per share x 1.96 1.6 1.7 1.17 1.6 1.27 Pajingo (A$/oz) 1,161 1,259 1,274 1,12 1,43 1,62 P/Book value x.6x 1.x 1.x.9x 1.x.9x Edna May (A$/oz) 1,219 1,64 1,24 868 968 885 R.O.E. (pre sig items) % 6% 6% 7% 1% 23% 18% Mt Rawdon (A$/oz) 937 844 855 926 974 1,58 R.O.A. (pre sig items) % 8% 7% 6% 9% 17% 18% Mt Carlton (A$/oz) 58 844 999 1,214 1,248 Interest Cover x 25.7x 1.3x 4.7x 8.5x 15.3x 23.7x Frog's Leg (A$/oz) 922 946 EBITDA per share A$ps.35.3.29.35.54.62 White Foil (A$/oz) 969 992 EV/EBITDA x 7.8x 8.x 8.2x 6.4x 2.1x 1.1x Cowal (A$/oz) 9 916 Source: EVN, Macquarie Research, May 215 Cash costs - AISC (A$/oz) 1,59 1,8 1,96 1,49 1,8 1,25 C1 Cash cost (A$/oz) 82 794 779 741 729 74 EARNINGS FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e EV/Production (A$/oz) 7,449 5,316 4,883 4,845 2,477 2,53 Sales Revenue A$m 469 65 634 653 1,51 1,629 OPERATIONAL OUTLOOK Other Revenue A$m 1 Cracow (koz) Pajingo (koz) Edna May (koz) Mt Rawdon (koz) Mt Carlton (koz) Frog's Leg (koz) White Foil (koz) Cowal (koz) AISC (A$/oz) Total Revenue A$m 469 65 635 653 151 1629 Operating Costs A$m (249) (36) (387) (365) (683) (694) Operational EBITDA A$m 221 245 248 288 827 936 Exploration Expense/Write-offs A$m (5) (9) (6) (4) (1) (8) Corporate & Other Costs A$m (25) (25) (32) (25) (24) (25) EBITDA A$m 19 212 21 259 792 92 RESERVES AND RESOURCES (ATTRIBUTABLE) D&A A$m (94) (141) (144) (158) (47) (47) Reserves EBIT A$m 96 7 66 11 385 495 Project Mt g/t koz Net Interest A$m (4) (7) (14) (12) (25) (21) Cracow 1.4 5.9 26 Profit Before Tax A$m 92 63 52 89 36 474 Pajingo.8 6.2 154 Tax Expense A$m (29) (19) (142) Edna May 11.4 1.1 42 Minorities A$m Mt Rawdon 3.6.9 862 Adjusted NPAT A$m 63 44 52 89 36 332 Mt Carlton 8. 3.7 947 Significant Items (post tax) A$m (26) (352) (2) Frog's Leg 2.5 5.5 443 Reported NPAT A$m 37 (37) 5 89 36 332 White Foil 6.8 1.5 338 CASHFLOW FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e Resources Cowal 41.5 1.2 1,555 Total 12.8 1.5 4,961 Net Profit A$m 37-37 5 89 36 332 Project Mt g/t koz Interest/Tax/D&A A$m 126 166 147 137 392 537 Cracow 3.4 6.6 724 Working Capital/other A$m 25 374 (1) 13 (35) () Pajingo 4.8 5.9 922 Net Operating Cashflow A$m 188 233 196 239 717 869 Edna May 31. 1.1 1,145 Capex A$m (233) (436) (164) (164) (213) (187) Mt Rawdon 51.1.8 1,234 Investments A$m 14 (21) (2) (752) Mt Carlton 12. 3.3 1,276 Sale of PPE and Other A$m Twin Hills 4.6 2.7 399 Free cash flow A$m (31) (224) 32 74 (248) 681 Frog's Leg 3.8 6.4 77 Dividends Paid A$m (13) (11) (22) (29) White Foil 35.9 1.6 1,867 Debt A$m (16) 95 (1) (46) 38 (4) Cowal 53. 1.1 1,875 Equity Issuance A$m 158 1 349 Total 199.7 1.6 1,212 Other A$m EV/Reserve (A$/oz) 421 EV/Resource (A$/oz) 25 Net Financing Cashflow A$m 143 96 (14) (57) 78 (33) EQUITY DCF VALUATION Macquarie forecasts Spot prices Net change in cash A$m 112 (128) 18 16 46 649 Projects A$m A$ps A$m A$ps Cracow 22.14 131.9 Pajingo 183.13 123.8 BALANCE SHEET FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e Edna May 152.1 93.6 Cash A$m 142 14 32 48 58 1,157 Mt Rawdon 337.23 262.18 PP&E & Mine Development A$m 1,24 918 982 997 1,555 1,336 Mt Carlton 268.18 28.14 Exploration A$m 8 23 35 Frog's Leg 242.17 178.12 Total Assets A$m 1,269 1,22 1,11 1,151 2,322 2,768 White Foil 155.11 121.8 Debt A$m 36 134 161 118 612 69 Cowal 774.53 619.42 Total Liabilities A$m 213 275 324 287 77 913 Unpaid capital & Investments 74.5 78.5 Total Net Assets / Equity A$m 1,56 747 785 864 1,552 1,855 Forwards (159) (.11) (17) (.1) Net Debt / (Cash) A$m (16) 121 13 7 14 (548) Corporate (1) (.7) (1) (.7) Gearing (net debt/(nd + equity)) % (11%) 14% 14% 7% 6% (42%) Net cash (debt) (56) (.35) (511) (.35) Gearing (net debt/equity) % (1%) 16% 17% 8% 7% (3%) Net Equity Value (@ 9% WACC) 1,622 1.11 1,184.81 Price Target (1x NPV) 1.1 5 FY1 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e FY2e 15 1 5 26 May 215 5
Fundamentals Macquarie Wealth Management Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a strong positive view on Evolution Mining. The strongest style exposure is Growth, indicating this stock has good historic and/or forecast growth. Growth metrics focus on both top and bottom line items. The weakest style exposure is Quality, indicating this stock is likely to have a weaker and less stable underlying earnings stream. 111/191 Global rank in Materials % of BUY recommendations 5% (5/1) Number of Price Target downgrades 1 Number of Price Target upgrades 2 Attractive Quant Local market rank Global sector rank Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. Two rankings: Local market (Australia & NZ) and Global sector (Materials) Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score. 1.1 OceanaGold Corporation Sandfire Resources.6.4 OceanaGold Corporation Sandfire Resources Mount Gibson Iron Arrium -1.2 -.7 Mount Gibson Iron Arrium Aquarius Platinum -2. Aquarius Platinum -3. -2. -1.. 1. 2. 3. -1% -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. OceanaGold Corporation Sandfire Resources Mount Gibson Iron Arrium Aquarius Platinum.8.3.2 -.1 -.5 -.4 OceanaGold Corporation Sandfire Resources Mount Gibson Iron Arrium Aquarius Platinum -3. -2. -1.. 1. 2. 3. -1% -5% % 5% 1% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. Price to Earnings NTM Price Upside Price to Sales NTM EV/EBITDA (NTM) Turnover(USD) 125 Day Earnings Certainty Profit Margin Last Actual Earnings Stability Negatives Positives -19% -21% -22% -27% 22% 22% 31% 4% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market. Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score 1.12.25 1.11.16.19.83 -.58.15-1.32 -.73.3 Percentile relative to sector(/191) Percentile relative to market(/416) 5 1 5 1 1 1 Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 26 May 215 6
Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+1% Neutral expected return from -1% to +1% Underperform expected return <-1% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform expected return >+1% Neutral expected return from -1% to +1% Underperform expected return <-1% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down 6 1% in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 4 6% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 3 4% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 3% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 31 March 215 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 48.99% 59.51% 49.3% 43.79% 59.59% 52.2% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 7.42% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 34.12% 26.62% 35.21% 5.29% 34.93% 31.32% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 5.68% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 16.89% 13.87% 15.49% 5.93% 5.48% 16.48% (for US coverage by MCUSA,.87% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) EVN AU vs Small Ordinaries, & rec history ABX CN vs TSX, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) (all figures in CAD currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, May 215 12-month target price methodology EVN AU: A$1.1 based on a DCF methodology ABX CN: C$11. based on a DCF methodology Company-specific disclosures: EVN AU: Macquarie and its affiliates collectively and beneficially own or control 1% or more of any class of Ltd's equity securities. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures. Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 21-Apr-215 EVN AU Outperform A$1.15 8-Apr-215 EVN AU Outperform A$1.25 21-Mar-215 EVN AU Outperform A$1.2 18-Feb-215 EVN AU Outperform A$1.1 22-Jan-215 EVN AU Outperform A$1.5 15-Jan-215 EVN AU Outperform A$1. 15-Dec-214 EVN AU Outperform A$.95 29-Oct-214 EVN AU Outperform A$1. 28-Aug-214 EVN AU Outperform A$.9 29-Jul-214 EVN AU Neutral A$.85 16-Jan-214 EVN AU Neutral A$.9 28-Oct-213 EVN AU Neutral A$1. 26-Sep-213 EVN AU Neutral A$.9 29-Jul-213 EVN AU Neutral A$.8 18-Jun-213 EVN AU Outperform A$1. 25-Apr-213 EVN AU Outperform A$1.2 6-Mar-213 EVN AU Outperform A$1.6 3-Jan-213 EVN AU Outperform A$1.9 26-Jul-212 EVN AU Outperform A$1.8 Target price risk disclosures: 26 May 215 7
EVN AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. ABX CN: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: The views expressed in this research reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd (ABN 94 122 169 279, AFSL No. 31862) ( MGL ) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group ) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited (ABN 58 2 832 126, AFSL No. 238947) a Participant of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Equities Limited (ABN 41 2 574 923, AFSL No. 23754) ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN 46 8 583 542, AFSL No. 23752) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989. Any MGL subsidiary noted in this research, apart from MBL, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. 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We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures. 26 May 215 8