AUSTRALIA SEK AU Price (at 12:41, 17 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$17.10 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 18.03 12-month target A$ 18.10 12-month TSR % +8.5 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional Services Market cap A$m 5,970 30-day avg turnover A$m 21.3 Number shares on issue m 349.1 Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Jun 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Revenue m 713.3 865.1 1,012.9 1,086.9 EBIT m 276.7 324.9 403.0 469.3 Reported profit m 196.2 288.9 247.8 296.7 Adjusted profit m 180.3 198.4 247.8 296.7 Gross cashflow m 259.7 295.0 360.7 418.3 CFPS 76.6 86.2 105.3 122.1 CFPS growth % 32.2 12.6 22.1 16.0 PGCFPS x 22.3 19.8 16.2 14.0 PGCFPS rel x 2.37 2.05 1.83 1.63 EPS adj 53.2 58.0 72.3 86.6 EPS adj growth % 27.0 9.0 24.7 19.8 PER adj x 32.1 29.5 23.6 19.7 PER rel x 1.93 1.75 1.50 1.33 Total DPS 30.0 39.1 48.8 58.5 Total div yield % 1.8 2.3 2.9 3.4 Franking % 100 100 100 100 ROA % 12.5 12.7 13.6 14.7 ROE % 21.5 19.2 20.3 22.4 EV/EBITDA x 19.4 16.3 13.5 11.8 Net debt/equity % 5.4 17.6 8.5-1.6 P/BV x 6.5 5.0 4.6 4.2 SEK AU vs ASX 100, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February 2015 (all figures in AUD unless noted) 18 February 2015 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited SEEKing to evolve Event SEEK reported 1H15 earnings ~5% below consensus due to higher costs. Impact Yes, higher costs, but also very strong underlying trends: The dampener on the result was clearly the higher level of opex and capex being directed, toward SEEK s Placement products. Putting cost growth to one side, the result re-affirms the strong position of most of SEEK s assets in their respective markets. Domestic revenue growth of 14% was delivered in an environment of rising unemployment. Underlying revenue trends in China, Brazil, Mexico and Asia also reflect strong fundamentals and historic investment. SEEK Learning is perhaps one vertical that is showing signs of increased competition, and we have tempered our growth expectations here. ing to evolve towards a stronger technology offering: While technology has always underpinned the SEEK business, we have regarded its core offering as a market-place business. After all, the technology was easily replicated, while the market place was not. The shift underway at is toward technology-led solutions for its customers that leverage its incumbency in the space. If successful, this will make SEEK even more integral in helping advertisers find the right staff. Importantly, as SEEK moves up the value curve, the potential exists for it to attract incremental revenues to reflect the value added. Still too early to judge the outcomes: The company noted in its result materials a number of positive indicators around the Placement Strategy, including a 58% growth in candidate profiles year on year, 90% migration to SEEK s new cloud based talent management tool (Advertiser Centre), and significant advancements in data & search analytics. Management also noted that Domestic revenues might be benefiting from some of this investment, including the strength in SME and Casual advertisers, however it remains too early to be conclusive on future growth from these initiatives. With this in mind, it is important to note management s strong track record in value delivery over time (albeit not always in technology deployments), which perhaps validates some trust from investors. Earnings and target price revision EPS changes: FY15e -6.9%; FY16e -11.8% primarily driven by higher costs, softer domestic volume growth in 1H, and a weaker outlook for SEEK Learning. TP lifted by 4.3% to $18.10/sh. Price catalyst 12-month price target: A$18.10 based on a Sum of Parts methodology. Catalyst: Zhaopin quarterly results (May 2015). Action and recommendation Maintain Outperform. While current investment levels are higher than we had expected, the fundamentals of SEEK s key operating businesses remain very strong. Incremental to this, SEEK is likely to create material value in Asia over a number of years following the JobStreet acquisition, and is also positioning to drive new revenue streams via its Placement strategies and an international expansion of its Learning platforms. Please refer to page 9 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
Result summary Overall, this was a strong result with respect to the underlying fundamentals of key business divisions, offset by higher costs in SEEK Domestic due to a continued ramp-up in Placement products. EBITDA grew by 17.9% on a reported basis vs 1H14. If we adjust for the receipt of earnouts at SEEK Learning (related to the THINK sale), FX hedging gains for International, the consolidation of JobStreet for 6 weeks and revenue recognition changes at OCC, underlying EBITDA grew by 12.9%. Fig 1 SEK FY15 operational summary 1H15 % ch vs pcp 2H15 % ch vs pcp FY15 % ch vs pcp SEEK Domestic 132.9 13.7% 140.0 12.6% 272.9 13.1% Zhaopin 117.6 131.0 38.7% 248.6 35.2% SEEK Asia 33.7 14.6% 71.8 139.3% 105.5 77.6% SEEK Learning 40.2 15.2% 45.5-13.8% 85.7-2.3% Brasil Online 60.0 8.5% 68.8 8.4% 128.8 8.4% OCC Mexico 10.9-6.0% 12.8 19.5% 23.7 6.2% Total revenues 395.3 17.1% 469.8 25.1% 865.1 21.3% Total opex 226.8 16.5% 273.0 27.1% 499.8 22.1% SEEK Domestic 75.8 5.9% 77.4 7.1% 153.2 6.5% Zhaopin 31.8 40.6 46.7% 72.4 38.3% SEEK Asia 15.0 47.1% 34.2 200.4% 49.2 128.0% SEEK Learning 18.6 18.5% 21.6-30.4% 40.2-14.0% Brasil Online 22.4 22.4% 22.9 9.1% 45.3 15.3% OCC Mexico 4.1-28.1% 5.1 23.6% 9.2-6.5% International other 0.8-124.2% -5.0-23.1% -4.2-57.1% Segment EBITDA 168.5 17.9% 196.9 22.3% 365.4 20.2% Analysis Our analysis below focuses on some of the areas in which the 1H15 result, and accompanying outlook, disappointed. This is designed to explore key areas of concern and focus by investors and probably is an unfair reflection on the broader trajectory of the SEEK business. But as a pre-text to this analysis, it is worth flagging that the segment earnings tables toward the end of the note show clearly the strong revenue momentum in the International businesses, while Domestic revenue trends are also encouraging, and Swinburne Online, while relatively small, is another success story for SEEK. Medium term, the business is, in our view, very well placed. In our view, there remains cyclical upside in the Australian employment market and associated volumes that can drive material upside for SEEK; The JobStreet acquisition has just completed and there is a multi-year opportunity to improve those businesses and extract synergies from the acquisition; All key associates have bright outlooks and material structural growth opportunities; If SEEK is able to execute on its Placement strategy there is scope to drive incremental revenues to the Domestic business, and in time, International operations; There is an opportunity to export the SEEK Learning market to International markets. Against that backdrop, we focus now on three areas that disappointed in the 1H15 result, namely: Domestic volume growth of 7% was below the 11% indicated by the Employment Index; Cost growth in the Domestic business was +26% as SEEK invests in its Placement strategy; Momentum is coming off in the Learning business against a backdrop of increasing competition. 18 February 2015 2
Domestic volumes growth below the SEI, but still strong at 7% Domestic volume growth of 7% was below the 11% growth indicated by the SEEK Employment Index. As illustrated in Fig 2 below, this Index has been a very reliable guide to growth, hence the surprise to the market. The reason for the miss appears to be the impact of some of the newer Placement products. Improvements in site functionality are, at the margins, reducing the refresh of ads and also the number of duplicates in the market. As a result, it is possible that the SEEK domestic volume growth will lag the Index again in the coming half. Fig 2 SEEK Domestic volume growth of 7% was below expectations based on SEI 15% 10% 5% 5.9% 6.0% 3.9% 2.7% 11.0% 7.0% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -4.7% -4.5% Disconnect in 1H15 between -11.0% -10.7%-11.0% SEEK New Job Index and -12.7% reported volume growth -15.4% -17.3% 1H12 2H12 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 New Job Index YoY % ch SEK Volume growth (reported Even allowing for a reduction in SEEK s volumes vs the Index, the year is off to an encouraging start with January volumes up 10.9% vs a year earlier (seasonally adjusted). Fig 3 New Job Ad Index growth has remained strong 14% % ch vs pcp 12% 11.8% 12.3% 13.2% 10.5% 10.7% 10.9% 10% 8.6% 8.7% 8% 6% 5.6% 6.8% 4% 2% -0.3% 0% 0.8% 1.4% -2% Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Domestic cost growth continues to ramp up The other key driver of a weaker result was the ramp-up in domestic costs to implement the Placement product strategy, as well as to support other adjacencies. This level of cost growth is expected to continue into 2H15 (Macq +20%), and will likely be a high again in FY16 (Macq +10%). As a result, the trend of EBITDA growth has de-coupled from revenue trends as illustrated by Fig 5. 18 February 2015 3
Fig 4 Domestic costs have picked up in the last year... Fig 5...leading to a de-coupling of revenue and EBITDA trends 60 $m % 40% 25% 55 30% 20% 15% 20% 10% 50 10% 5% 0% 45 0% -5% -10% 40 1H12 2H12 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15-10% -15% 1H12 2H12 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 Domestic rev growth (pcp) Domestic EBITDA growth (pcp) Domestic opex % change vs pcp SEEK Learning the other softer point in the result SEEK Learning delivered underlying Revenue and EBITDA growth of 9% and 4% respectively. While top line growth was solid, it was below previous periods, reflecting increased competition in the space. SEEK has flagged a re-investment in marketing to grow brand awareness as well as consultants to help assist students. We see 18 months of increased opex to help return this business to a steady revenue growth trajectory, as well as for investment in International expansion. Target price lifted by 4.3% to $18.10/sh Despite additional costs in the near- and medium-term, our target price is lifted by 4.3% to $18.10/sh, reflecting a roll-forward to FY16 earnings. Where business valuations are based on DCF analysis, this in part also matches upward valuation adjustments for a lower cost of capital (driven by a reduced RFR assumption of 3.75%, consistent with changes we have to other stocks under coverage). Fig 6 SEEK valuation overview Headline share Multiple Valuation Value per A$m FY16 EBITDA Share (%) FY16 EBITDA x A$m share ($A) Classifieds 182.3 100% 182.3 17.0 3,098.7 $8.88 Zhaopin 93.6 60% 56.2 16.0 899.8 $2.58 Learning 39.0 100% 39.0 15.0 585.2 $1.68 Brasil Online 49.3 51% 25.1 18.0 452.5 $1.30 SEEK Asia 73.7 75% 55.2 20.0 1,104.9 $3.16 OCC Mexico 11.8 57% 6.7 20.0 134.7 $0.39 International overheads -10.0 100% -10.0 10.0-100.0 -$0.29 Sub-total: Consolidated 439.6 354.6 17.4 6,175.7 $17.69 Other investments 546.2 $1.56 Target enterprise value 6,721.9 $19.25 Net debt -410.6 -$1.18 Adjustments to net debt -16.4 -$0.05 Adjusted net debt -427.0 -$1.22 Equity value 6,295.0 $18.03 Target price $18.10 Source: Macquarie Research, February 2015 18 February 2015 4
1H15 result summary SEEK Domestic Acceleration in cost growth mutes EBITDA trends A 14% increase in revenue comprised of yield growth of 7% and mildly disappointing job ad volumes growth of 7%. Opex growth of 26% vs pcp exceeded our forecasts, and was driven by an $11 million investment in s placement strategy. As discussed, higher opex weighed on the momentum in the first half. Margins fell from 61.2% to 57.0% as a result, and further compression is likely in the second half. Our FY16 estimates assume a further 10% growth in Domestic volumes, reflecting a view that the market is currently operating below mid-cycle levels. Fig 7 SEEK Domestic P&L Summary A/NZ (AUD) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 1H14 2H14 FY14 1H15 2H15 FY15e FY16 FY17 Revenue 171.2 224.0 247.8 234.9 116.9 124.3 241.2 132.9 140.0 272.9 313.9 359.0 % ch vs pcp 30.9% 10.6% -5.2% -3.3% 9.1% 2.7% 13.7% 12.6% 13.1% 15.0% 14.4% Opex 77.8 90.5 95.6 93.3 45.3 52.0 97.3 57.1 62.6 119.7 131.6 140.9 % ch vs pcp 16.3% 5.7% -2.5% -0.6% 9.0% 4.3% 26.0% 20.3% 23.0% 10.0% 7.0% EBITDA 93.3 133.5 152.1 141.6 71.6 72.3 143.9 75.8 77.4 153.2 182.3 218.1 % ch vs pcp 43.0% 14.0% -6.9% -5.0% 9.1% 1.6% 5.9% 7.1% 6.5% 19.0% 19.7% % margin 54.5% 59.6% 61.4% 60.3% 61.2% 58.2% 59.7% 57.0% 55.3% 56.1% 58.1% 60.8% Volume growth -17.4% 22.0% 1.0% -13.0% -11.0% 2.7% -5.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 9.0% 8.8% Yield growth 17.0% 8.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.9% 8.2% 7.0% 6.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.0% Zhaopin Strong momentum continues Revenue growth of 27% in 1H15 was strong, with online revenue growth accelerating to 30% (vs 5% in 1H14 and 17% in 2H14). EBITDA growth was 25%, continuing its upward trend. Currency movements were favourable. Zhaopin displayed strong operating metrics, with total job postings up 39% and growth in unique customers up 40% for the December quarter. Combined with a 27% increase in registered users, we forecast continued top line momentum. Fig 8 Zhaopin P&L summary Zhaopin (CNYm) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 1H14 2H14 FY14 1H15 2H15 FY15 Revenue 397.8 641.0 821.5 889.6 505.6 530.3 1035.9 640.0 624.6 1264.6 % ch vs pcp 32.0% 61.1% 28.2% 8.3% 13.5% 19.4% 16.4% 26.6% 17.8% 22.1% Opex 428.9 519.3 614.2 642.8 366.2 374.3 740.5 465.7 430.3 896.0 % ch vs pcp -1.7% 21.1% 18.3% 4.7% 12.2% 18.3% 15.2% 27.2% 15.0% 21.0% EBITDA -31.1 121.7 207.3 246.8 139.4 156.0 295.4 174.3 194.3 368.6 % ch vs pcp -76.9% -491.3% 70.3% 19.1% 17.0% 22.2% 19.7% 25.0% 24.5% 24.8% % margin -7.8% 19.0% 25.2% 27.7% 27.6% 29.4% 28.5% 27.2% 31.1% 29.1% Asia Placed for strong growth post- JobStreet acquisition The reported JobsDB result, which included a 13% drop in revenue, was in part due to the absence of a 1H15 contribution from CJOL, which was divested in June 2014. EBITDA grew by 8.5%. Fig 9 JobsDB P&L summary (excludes JobStreet) JobsDB (HKDm) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 1H14 2H14 FY14 1H15 2H15 FY15 Revenue 174.2 384.7 420.9 407.9 209.9 212.7 422.6 182.7 261.0 443.7 % ch vs pcp 9.4% -3.1% 6.8% 0.6% 3.6% -13.0% 22.7% 5.0% Opex 83.6 250.4 255.7 268.3 136.7 131.7 268.4 103.3 175.8 279.1 % ch vs pcp 2.1% 4.9% 2.4% -2.3% 0.0% -24.4% 33.5% 4.0% EBITDA 90.6 134.3 165.2 139.6 73.2 81.0 154.2 79.4 85.2 164.6 % ch vs pcp 48.2% 23.0% -15.5% 16.2% 5.7% 10.5% 8.5% 5.2% 6.7% % margin 52.0% 34.9% 39.2% 34.2% 34.9% 38.1% 36.5% 43.5% 32.6% 37.1% 18 February 2015 5
At JobStreet, underlying EBITDA margins expanded to 50% (from 45%) and 19% online billing growth underpinned a strong result and positive outlook. Management reaffirmed previous guidance that the JobStreet acquisition will be mildly cash EPS accretive in FY15 and accelerate thereafter. Brasil Online Good result, macro getting a bit tougher Revenue grew by 10% despite a subdued macro environment, with new job ads falling 25%. A resilient revenue profile consisted of 24% growth in employer pays revenues and 10% growth in jobseeker revenues. Fig 10 Brasil Online P&L summary Brasil Online (BRLm) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 1H14 2H14 FY14 1H15 2H15 FY15 Revenue 152.4 176.2 200.3 229.5 116.2 133.4 249.6 128.2 141.4 269.6 % ch vs pcp 15.6% 13.7% 14.6% 6.7% 10.6% 8.8% 10.3% 6.0% 8.0% Opex 107.1 117.9 152.4 166.5 77.6 89.5 167.1 80.3 94.3 174.6 % ch vs pcp 10.1% 29.3% 9.3% -6.2% 6.8% 0.4% 3.5% 5.4% 4.5% EBITDA 45.3 58.3 47.9 63.0 38.6 43.9 82.5 47.9 47.0 94.9 % ch vs pcp 28.6% -17.8% 31.5% 47.3% 19.3% 31.0% 24.1% 7.2% 15.1% % margin 29.8% 33.1% 23.9% 27.5% 33.2% 32.9% 33.1% 37.4% 33.3% 35.2% OCC (Mexico) Strong underlying result Reported earnings impacted by one-off benefit in 1H14 due to a shift in revenue recognition. Underlying EBITDA up 44% and set to improve as the Mexican economy continues to pick up, reinvestment in new products pays off and OCC monetises its market-leading position. Fig 11 OCC (Mexico) P&L summary OCC (MXPm) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 1H14 2H14 FY14 1H15 2H15 FY15e Revenue 141.2 173.0 199.5 180.2 137.8 128.5 266.3 130.8 143.9 274.7 % ch vs pcp 22.5% 15.3% -9.7% 60.2% 36.4% 47.8% -5.1% 12.0% 3.2% Opex 77.7 93.9 117.5 140.8 70.7 79.7 150.4 81.7 86.9 168.6 % ch vs pcp 20.8% 25.1% 19.8% 0.7% 12.9% 6.8% 15.6% 9.0% 12.1% EBITDA 63.5 79.1 82.0 39.4 67.1 48.8 115.9 49.1 57.0 106.1 % ch vs pcp 24.6% 3.7% -52.0% 324.7% 106.8% 194.2% -26.8% 16.9% -8.4% % margin 45.0% 45.7% 41.1% 21.9% 48.7% 38.0% 43.5% 37.5% 39.6% 38.6% 18 February 2015 6
SEEK LIMITED Year Ending 30 June 1H14A 2H14A 1H15A 2H15E FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E Profit & Loss Revenue Classifieds $m 116.9 124.3 132.9 140.0 234.9 241.2 272.9 313.9 Zhaopin $m 89.5 94.4 117.6 131.0 49.9 183.9 248.6 296.0 Jobs DB $m 29.4 30.0 33.7 71.8 51.3 59.4 105.5 146.1 Learning $m 34.9 52.8 40.2 45.5 57.4 87.7 85.7 91.4 Think $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 103.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Brasil Online $m 55.3 63.5 60.0 68.8 109.8 118.8 128.8 137.4 OCC Mexico $m 11.6 10.7 10.9 12.8 13.8 22.3 23.7 28.1 Total sales revenue $m 337.6 375.7 395.3 469.8 620.2 713.3 865.1 1012.9 Expenses $m 194.7 214.7 226.8 273.0 380.6 409.4 499.8 573.3 EBITDA $m 142.9 161.0 168.5 196.9 239.6 303.9 365.4 439.6 -Depreciation $m 4.9 3.9 5.7 6.3 11.0 8.8 12.0 12.6 - Amortisation $m 17.4 25.7 25.2 27.4 29.6 43.1 52.6 54.2 EBIT $m 120.6 131.4 137.6 163.1 199.0 252.0 300.7 372.8 + Share of associates net profits $m 11.5 13.2 11.3 12.8 27.1 24.7 24.1 30.1 Total EBIT $m 132.1 144.6 148.9 176.0 226.1 276.7 324.9 402.9 Net Interest Expense $m 7.9 8.9 5.6 10.7 17.8 16.8 16.3 14.0 Profit before tax $m 124.2 135.7 143.3 165.3 208.3 259.9 308.6 388.9 Adjusted income tax $m 24.6 27.5 38.9 39.3 54.5 52.1 78.2 95.1 Net Profit after tax before MI $m 99.6 108.2 104.4 126.0 153.8 207.8 230.4 293.9 Minority interest $m 13.3 14.2 12.1 19.9 13.6 27.5 32.0 46.1 Adjusted Profit $m 86.3 94.0 92.3 106.1 141.1 180.3 198.4 247.7 Adjusted EPS 25.5 27.7 27.0 31.0 41.9 53.2 58.0 72.3 Adjusted EPS Growth % 26.0% 28.0% 5.9% 11.9% 13.5% 27.0% 9.0% 24.7% DPS 14.0 16.0 19.0 20.1 22.0 30.0 39.1 48.8 Yield % 1.3% 1.8% 2.3% 2.9% PE (adj) 40.8 32.1 29.5 23.6 EFPOWA m 338.1 339.8 341.5 342.6 337.0 339.8 342.6 342.6 Year Ending 30 June 1H14A 2H14A 1H15A 2H15E FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E Cashflow Analysis EBDITA $m 142.9 161.0 168.5 196.9 240.5 303.9 365.4 439.6 - Inc. in Working capital $m 10.9 (17.2) (5.7) (2.6) (0.8) (6.3) (8.3) 0.4 - Net Interest Paid $m 4.7 3.8 4.8 11.5 12.8 8.5 16.3 14.0 - Tax Paid $m 32.5 36.5 38.7 34.7 48.3 69.0 73.4 83.0 + Other $m 4.5 - (16.2) 16.2 (12.4) 4.5 - - Net Cash in Op Activities $m 99.3 137.9 114.5 169.5 167.7 237.2 284.0 342.3 + Proc. of P,P&E $m - - - - - - - - + Proc. of Businesses & Inv $m 91.5 0.9-8.0-92.4 8.0 - - Capex $m 20.6 21.0 30.9 29.1 9.9 41.6 60.0 50.0 - Acquisitions & Inv $m 8.3 11.8 512.5-41.2 20.1 512.5 - + Other $m 9.2 10.9 19.4 0.7 0.3 20.1 20.1 20.1 Net cash in investing $m 71.8 (21.0) (524.0) (20.4) (50.8) 50.8 (544.4) (29.9) - Dividends Paid (before DRP) $m 58.1 60.0 63.7 64.9 64.1 118.1 128.6 146.6 + Equity Movements (inc. DRP) $m 5.5 10.1 10.2 (10.2) 2.0 15.6 - - + Debt Movements $m 38.9 (119.8) 370.1 (343.5) 82.2 (80.9) 26.6 (5.8) + Other $m (36.1) 76.5 139.4 - (60.9) 40.4 139.4 - Net cash in financing $m (49.8) (93.2) 456.0 (418.6) (40.8) (143.0) 37.4 (152.4) Net Increase in Cash $m 121.3 23.7 46.5 (269.5) 76.1 145.0 (223.0) 160.0 Year Ending 30 June FY13A FY14A FY15E FY15E Trading information Balance sheet Current Share Price $ 17.10 Cash & Liquid 184.8 323.0 138.1 298.1 EFPOWA 341.5 Trade Debtors - Current 82.6 96.5 114.6 128.4 Market capitalisation ($m) 5,840 Inventory 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Current Assets 53.5 26.6 8.9 8.9 Total Current Assets 320.9 446.1 261.6 435.4 Trade Debtors - Non Current 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Equity in Associated Companies 152.4 153.1 97.0 97.0 Fixed Assets 31.5 20.7 50.7 88.1 Goodwill 1287.6 1196.2 1815.9 1796.7 Brandnames 347.5 317.7 514.8 514.8 Other Non Current Assets 64.2 98.4 127.9 127.9 Total Non Current Assets 1883.1 1786.1 2606.4 2624.6 Total Assets 2204.0 2232.2 2867.9 3060.0 Trade Creditors - Current 76.6 84.9 111.3 124.8 Short Term Debt 52.1 22.2 29.4 29.4 Provisions 33.5 23.1 33.6 33.6 Other Current Liabilities 194.7 154.6 198.7 198.7 Total Current Liabilities 356.9 284.8 373.0 386.5 Trade Creditors - Non Current 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Long Term Debt 436.8 379.8 445.3 439.5 Provisions 27.5 23.4 26.3 26.3 Other Non Current Liabilities 86.3 75.6 113.6 196.8 Total Non Current Liabilities 550.6 478.8 585.2 662.6 Total Liabilities 907.4 763.6 958.2 1049.0 Total Shareholder Funds 1296.6 1468.6 1909.8 2010.9 18 February 2015 7
Fundamentals Macquarie Wealth Management Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a reasonably positive view on. The strongest style exposure is Profitability, indicating this stock is efficiently converting its investments to earnings as proxied by ratios such as ROE, ROA etc. The weakest style exposure is Valuations, indicating this stock is over-priced in the market relative to its peers. 39/306 Global Alpha Model Sector Rank % of BUY recommendations 25% (3/12) Number of Price Target downgrades 0 Number of Price Target upgrades 3 Attractive Quant Rank within Country Rank within Sector Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. The rankings are displayed relative to the sector and country. Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score. 1.0 LinkedIn 0.6 LinkedIn Carsales.com 0.5 Carsales.com 51job Trade Me Group 0.0-0.4 51job Trade Me Group -3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. LinkedIn Carsales.com 51job Trade Me Group -0.7-0.4 0.3 0.8 0.7 LinkedIn Carsales.com 51job Trade Me Group -3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0-90% -40% 10% 60% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. Price to Book FY1 Price to Book LTM Price to Sales LTM Price to Book NTM Sales Revisions 3 Month Net Income Margin NTM DPS Growth 5yr Historic Profit Margin NTM -28% -22% -24% -24% Negatives Positives 28% 27% 26% 25% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and country. Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score 0.99-0.14 0.42 0.61 0.12 0.49 0.14 0.21-1.54 0.11-0.18 Percentile relative to sector(/306) Percentile relative to country(/240) 0 50 100 0 50 100 0 0 1 1 For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 18 February 2015 8
Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down 60 100% in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 40% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 30% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 31 December 2014 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 51.80% 58.06% 45.07% 44.42% 60.54% 46.81% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 5.29% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 31.80% 27.37% 30.99% 50.10% 35.37% 33.51% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 3.08% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 16.39% 14.57% 23.94% 5.48% 4.08% 19.68% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.44% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) SEK AU vs ASX 100, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February 2015 12-month target price methodology SEK AU: A$18.10 based on a Sum of Parts methodology Company-specific disclosures: SEK AU: Macquarie and its affiliates collectively and beneficially own or control 1% or more of any class of Limited's equity securities. The analyst and/or associated parties own or have other interests in securities issued by SEK AU. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures. Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 18-Dec-2014 SEK AU Outperform A$17.35 23-Oct-2014 SEK AU Outperform A$17.20 21-Aug-2014 SEK AU Outperform A$17.10 11-Jul-2014 SEK AU Outperform A$17.20 20-Feb-2014 SEK AU Outperform A$16.20 28-Nov-2013 SEK AU Outperform A$14.30 12-Oct-2013 SEK AU Outperform A$13.60 22-Aug-2013 SEK AU Neutral A$10.00 21-Feb-2013 SEK AU Neutral A$9.30 11-Jan-2013 SEK AU Neutral A$7.80 29-Nov-2012 SEK AU Neutral A$6.80 23-Aug-2012 SEK AU Neutral A$7.10 30-May-2012 SEK AU Neutral A$6.77 23-Feb-2012 SEK AU Neutral A$6.68 Target price risk disclosures: SEK AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. 18 February 2015 9
Analyst certification: The views expressed in this research reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd (ABN 94 122 169 279, AFSL No. 318062) ( MGL ) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group ) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited (ABN 58 002 832 126, AFSL No. 238947) a Participant of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Equities Limited (ABN 41 002 574 923, AFSL No. 237504) ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN 46 008 583 542, AFSL No. 237502) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989. Any MGL subsidiary noted in this research, apart from MBL, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This research has been prepared for the use of the clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return e-mail and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Macquarie Group does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures. 18 February 2015 10