AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 09:49, 01 Oct 2015 GMT) Neutral A$27.52 Valuation - DDM/PE A$ 32.74 12-month target A$ 34.15 12-month TSR % +30.6 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 79,891 30-day avg turnover A$m 230.2 Number shares on issue m 2,903 Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Sep 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Net interest Inc m 13,797 14,542 15,637 16,776 Non interest Inc m 5,656 5,968 6,160 6,521 Underlying profit m 10,693 11,189 12,124 13,324 Reported profit m 7,170 7,031 7,602 8,347 Adjusted profit m 7,027 7,201 7,602 8,347 EPS adj 247.9 252.3 252.5 269.5 EPS adj growth % 7.3 1.8 0.1 6.7 PER adj x 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.2 PER rel x 0.77 0.72 0.74 0.78 Total DPS 178.0 180.0 180.0 182.0 Total div yield % 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6 Franking % 100 100 100 100 ROA % 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 ROE % 14.8 13.6 12.8 12.9 Equity to assets % 6.4 6.3 6.6 6.5 P/BV x 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 ANZ AU vs ASX 100, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2015 (all figures in AUD unless noted) 1 October 2015 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Sticking with Super Regional Event ANZ today announced that Mike Smith will step down after 8 years as CEO on 31 December 2015. He will be replaced by Shayne Elliott, the current CFO. We would not expect to see wholesale changes to ANZ's current superregional strategy given the incoming CEO is an internal candidate with international banking experience; however, there will likely be a period of rebasing in the coming months. Neutral. Impact Shayne Elliott appointed new ANZ CEO - Shayne Elliott will replace Mike Smith as CEO of ANZ from 1 January 2016. The market had recently been made aware that Mike would be stepping down within 12 months, but the timeframe is a little sooner than we expected. Elliott is currently the CFO and is also responsible for Group Strategy, Treasury, M&A, Legal and Investor Relations. He joined ANZ in June 2009 as the CEO of the Institutional Division and prior to this had a variety of international investment banking roles. Super-regional (lower RoE) strategy is here to stay - Given Elliott's responsibilities have included Group strategy and with an international banking background, it appears the Group's super-regional (lower RoE) strategy is here to stay. That being said, divesting from the Group's capitalintensive, Asian minority interests will no doubt be atop of the to-do list (see our note - The Dis-Associates). The other item on the agenda is unsurprisingly technology. Due to their focus on Asia it could be said that ANZ have lagged peers in terms of technology investment and capability in recent times. We welcome this approach, although we view this as ANZ playing catch-up more so than getting ahead of the curve. This will also have to be done whilst closely managing their already elevated capitalised software balances. Bank stocks typically underperform their peers and market by ~3% in the months following a CEO transition announcement - As is often the case when a new CEO begins their tenure, there will likely be a period of rebasing. As a result, this typically leads to the bank underperforming both the sector and the market by ~3%. Analysis by our quant team shows that much of this underperformance occurs in the 2-3 months following the CEO transition announcement. Earnings and target price revision No change. Price catalyst 12-month price target: A$34.15 based on a DDM/PE methodology. Catalyst: FY15 result. Action and recommendation Maintain Neutral. Given short term rebasing risks, exposure to a slowing Asia and bank specific concerns around asset quality (see our note Australian banks - Weathering the Storm), ANZ remains our least preferred pick of the major banks. Please refer to page 7 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
Analysis ANZ today announced that Mike Smith will step down after 8 years as CEO on 31 December 2015. He will be replaced by Shayne Elliott, the current CFO. We would not expect to see wholesale changes to ANZ's current super-regional strategy given the incoming CEO is an internal candidate with international banking experience; however, there will likely be a period of rebasing in the coming months. Neutral. Shayne Elliott appointed new ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott will replace Mike Smith as CEO of ANZ from 1 January 2016. The market had recently been made aware that Mike would be stepping down within 12 months, but the timeframe is a little sooner than we expected. Elliott is currently the CFO and is also responsible for Group Strategy, Treasury, M&A, Legal and Investor Relations. He joined ANZ in June 2009 as the CEO of the Institutional Division and prior to this had a variety of international investment banking roles. Super-regional (lower RoE) strategy is here to stay Given Elliott's responsibilities have included Group strategy and with an international banking background, it appears the Group's super-regional (lower RoE) strategy is here to stay. That being said, divesting from the Group's capital-intensive, Asian minority interests will no doubt be atop of the to-do list (see our note - The Dis-Associates). Fig 1 ANZ associate profit, book equity, RoE and CET1 benefit from divestment 1H15 earnings (annualised) Equity RoE % of group earnings CET1 divestment benefit (@1.0x P/BV) AMMB 154 1,465 10.5% 2.1% 0.38% Panin 70 795 8.8% 1.0% 0.21% Shanghai Rural 212 1,443 14.7% 2.9% 0.37% Bank of Tianjin 160 710 22.5% 2.2% 0.18% Other 32 169 18.9% 0.4% 0.04% Total 628 4,582 13.7% 8.6% 1.18% Group 7273 50,217 14.5% Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, October 2015 The other item on the agenda is unsurprisingly technology. Due to their focus on Asia it could be said that ANZ have lagged peers in terms of technology investment and capability in recent times. Fig 2 ANZ s absolute investment spend and as a % of the cost base has lagged peers $m 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 Inv. Spend 0 2 4 6 8 % 10of Costs 15.0% 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% ANZ CBA NAB WBC* 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 ANZ Inv. Spend % CBA Inv. Spend % NAB Inv. Spend % WBC Inv. Spend % Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, October 2015 We welcome this approach, although we view this as ANZ playing catch-up more so than getting ahead of the curve. This will also have to be done whilst closely managing their already elevated capitalised software balances. 1 October 2015 2
-90-85 -80-75 -70-65 -60-55 -50-45 -40-35 -30-25 -20-15 -10-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Fig 3 Capitalised software balances at ANZ are quite elevated $m 2900 2700 2500 2300 2100 1900 1700 1500 ANZ CBA NAB WBC 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, October 2015 Bank stocks typically underperform their peers and market by ~3% in the months following a CEO transition announcement As is often the case when a new CEO begins their tenure, there will likely be a period of rebasing. As a result, this typically leads to the bank underperforming both the sector and the market by ~3%. Analysis by our quant team shows that much of this underperformance occurs in the 2-3 months following the CEO transition announcement. Fig 4 Following a CEO transition announcement, bank stocks typically Underperform their peers by ~3% in the subsequent 2-3 months 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.5% -4.0% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Volumes - Median (RHS) Volumes - Mean (RHS) Returns - Median Returns - Mean Source: Macquarie Quant Team, Macquarie Research, October 2015 1 October 2015 3
ESG Eye (Analyst: Deana Mitchell) ANZ s treatment of unvested equity awards is the preferred way The Board has re-based target pay for the newly appointed CEO. The total target pay for Elliott is 29% below that of exiting CEO Mike Smith. Fig 5 Total target pay for Elliott is 29% below that of exiting CEO Mike Smith Fixed Target STI Target LTI Total Comments Elliot As CEO 2.1 2.1 2.1 6.3 Max STI opportunity is $4.2m Smith As CEO 3.4 3.4 2.1 8.9 Max STI opportunity is $6.8m Difference -38% -38% 0% -29% Source: Macquarie Research, October 2015 With regards to Smith s substantial unvested LTI grants, these will remain on foot and will vest at the originally intended vesting dates to the extent that the performance conditions are satisfied in accordance with the conditions of the grant. In other words, there will be no automatic or accelerated vesting of those entitlements. This is the preferred way of treating unvested equity grants. This is in contrast to the treatment of Ken MacKenzie following his departure at AMC. The Board pro-rated most of the unvested equity awards, accelerated vesting and made a cash payment to him. Treatment of unvested awards under retirement or good leaver conditions is a difficult assessment for Boards, particularly for long standing executives. However, accelerated vesting of previously issued awards can often be debated as it may not be the preferred path because it negates the spirit of the performance award. The ANZ treatment of unvested equity awards is the preferred way. It is also worth observing the exit terms for Mike Smith as outlined by the leaving arrangements set by the Board. He will work as CEO until the end of the calendar year, gardening leave until 7 July and an additional 3 months of payment in lieu of notice. From 11 July 2016, he will be retained on a services agreement of $250,000 as an advisor to the Board on International Affairs. Investment View Maintain Neutral. Given short term rebasing risks, exposure to a slowing Asia and bank specific concerns around asset quality (see our note Australian banks - Weathering the Storm), ANZ remains our least preferred of the major banks. 1 October 2015 4
Fig 6 ANZ Financial Summary Year Ending 30 September 2013 1H14 2H14 2014 1H15 2H15 2015 2016 2017 Neutral PER SHARE DATA Cash EPS (AUD) - Macquarie Basis 231 124 124 248 130 122 252 253 270 Current Price Target Price Cash EPS Growth (%) 6% 6% -1% 7% 5% -6% 2% 0% 7% $27.52 $34.15 DPS (AUD) 164 83 95 178 86 94 180 180 182 Total Shareholder Return 30.6% BVPS (AUD) 16 17 18 18 19 20 20 21 22 NTA PS (AUD) 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 18 19 Bloomberg: ANZ AU Shares on issue (m) 2,744 2,744 2,757 2,757 2,766 2,878 2,878 2,986 3,016 Reuters: ANZ.AX VALUATION METRICS Macquarie Equities Australian Banks P/E (Cash) 11.9 11.1 11.1 11.1 10.6 11.2 10.9 10.9 10.2 Analyst(s) Contact(s) P/B (Stated) 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 Brendan Carrig +61 2 8237 6043 P/NTA 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 Chantal Sirisena +61 2 8232 6864 RoE (%) 15.1% 15.2% 14.8% 15.0% 14.6% 13.0% 13.7% 12.8% 12.9% RoA (%) 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% Dividend Yield (%) 6.0% 6.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.3% 6.8% 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% Margins & Volumes Dividend Payout (%) 71.0% 66.7% 76.9% 71.8% 66.2% 76.8% 71.3% 71.3% 67.5% Net Interest Margin (%) GLAA growth (%) Sustainable RoE used in Valuation (%) 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.0% 2.40% Cost of Equity (%) 9.8% 9.8% 9.8% 9.8% 9.8% 9.8% 9.8% 9.8% 9.8% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2013 1H14 2H14 2014 1H15 2H15 2015 2016 Efficiency Income Ratio (%) Cost / Cost growth (%) 2H14 2014 1H15 2H15 2015 2016 2013 1H14 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 46.0% 44.0% 42.0% PROFIT & LOSS (AUDm) Net Interest Income 12,772 6,764 7,033 13,797 7,138 7,404 14,542 15,637 16,776 Non-Interest Income 5,606 2,904 2,752 5,656 3,047 2,921 5,968 6,160 6,521 Fees & Commissions 2,459 1,255 1,260 2,515 1,308 1,233 2,541 2,584 2,709 Financial Markets 1,336 707 815 1,522 424 382 806 804 835 Life and Funds 1,216 611 802 1,413 979 1,019 1,998 2,178 2,379 Other Revenue 595 331-125 206 336 287 623 594 598 Total Operating Income 18,378 9,668 9,785 19,453 10,185 10,324 20,509 21,798 23,297 Total Operating Costs 8,236 4,286 4,474 8,760 4,593 4,727 9,320 9,674 9,973 Employee Costs 4,757 2,493 2,558 5,051 2,715 2,769 5,484 5,706 5,936 Other Costs 3,479 1,793 1,916 3,709 1,878 1,958 3,836 3,968 4,036 Pre-Provision Operating Profit 10,142 5,382 5,311 10,693 5,592 5,597 11,189 12,124 13,324 Impairment Charge 1,197 528 461 989 510 696 1,206 1,557 1,738 Pre-Tax Profit 8,945 4,854 4,850 9,704 5,082 4,901 9,983 10,567 11,586 Tax Expense 2,437 1,333 1,333 2,666 1,398 1,368 2,766 2,949 3,223 Minority Shareholders -10-6 -6-12 -8-8 -16-16 -16 Other Post Tax Items 226 134-277 -143 170 0 170 0 0 Stated Net Profit 6,272 3,381 3,789 7,170 3,506 3,525 7,031 7,602 8,347 Extraordinary & Other Items 283 134-277 -143 170 0 170 0 0 Hybrid Distributions -57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Derivatives & Hedging Revaluation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Macquarie Cash Profit 6,498 3,515 3,512 7,027 3,676 3,525 7,201 7,602 8,347 250% 200% 150% 100% Asset Quality Impairment Charge / GLAA (bp) Coverage (%) 29 27 25 23 21 BALANCE SHEET & CAP AD (AUDm) Risk Weighted Assets* 339,265 360,740 361,529 361,529 386,863 402,931 402,931 457,756 494,131 Interest Earning Assets 575,284 632,400 661,515 646,958 703,369 732,907 718,138 769,775 827,375 Gross Loans, Advances & Acceptances 473,774 513,615 525,534 525,534 561,907 585,505 585,505 625,567 672,329 Total Deposits 522,854 585,096 603,782 603,782 669,342 697,451 697,451 745,174 800,876 Total Assets 702,991 737,815 772,092 772,092 860,087 894,014 894,014 954,130 1,023,370 Shareholders Equity 45,615 47,038 49,284 49,284 52,051 56,673 56,673 62,651 66,663 Tier 1 Capital* 35,192 37,315 38,601 38,601 41,088 44,847 44,847 49,434 52,343 Tier 1 Ratio (%)* 10.37% 10.34% 10.68% 10.68% 10.62% 11.13% 11.13% 10.80% 10.59% Core Tier 1 Ratio (%) - Basel III 8.49% 8.33% 8.79% 8.79% 8.72% 9.31% 9.31% 9.19% 9.11% 19 50% 0% 2013 1H14 2H14 2014 1H15 2H15 2015 2016 17 15 ASSET QUALITY Impairment Charge / GLAA (bp) 25 21 18 19 19 24 21 25 26 Coverage (%) 102% 119% 136% 136% 149% 164% 164% 206% 266% 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.08 Total Stage 1 Dividends DDM Valuation 6.65 Total Fade Period Dividends 20.75 Total Perpetuity Dividends 0.52 Total Surplus Capital Per Share KEY RATIOS & GROWTH Net Interest Income growth (%) 5.5% 3.5% 4.0% 8.0% 1.5% 3.7% 5.4% 7.5% 7.3% Non-Interest Income growth (%) 2.5% 5.4% -5.2% 0.9% 10.7% -4.1% 5.5% 3.2% 5.9% Total Revenue growth (%) 4.5% 4.0% 1.2% 5.8% 4.1% 1.4% 5.4% 6.3% 6.9% Cost growth (%) 2.7% 2.0% 4.4% 6.4% 2.7% 2.9% 6.4% 3.8% 3.1% Pre-Provision Profit growth (%) 6.1% 5.7% -1.3% 5.4% 5.3% 0.1% 4.6% 8.4% 9.9% RWA growth (%) 13.0% 6.3% 0.2% 6.6% 7.0% 4.2% 11.5% 13.6% 7.9% GLAA growth (%) 9.2% 8.4% 2.3% 10.9% 6.9% 4.2% 11.4% 6.8% 7.5% Deposit growth (%) 11.0% 4.4% 2.4% 6.9% 8.8% 4.2% 13.3% 6.8% 7.5% Net Interest Margin (%) 2.22% 2.14% 2.13% 2.13% 2.03% 2.02% 2.02% 2.03% 2.03% Cost / Income Ratio (%) 44.8% 44.3% 45.7% 45.0% 45.1% 45.8% 45.4% 44.4% 42.8% *B2.5 2012, B3 2013 onward Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, October 2015 1 October 2015 5
Fundamentals Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a marginally negative view on. The strongest style exposure is Growth, indicating this stock has good historic and/or forecast growth. Growth metrics focus on both top and bottom line items. The weakest style exposure is Profitability, indicating this stock is not efficiently converting its investments to earnings as proxied by ratios such as ROE, ROA etc. 530/661 Global rank in Banks % of BUY recommendations 62% (10/16) Number of Price Target downgrades 6 Number of Price Target upgrades 1 Attractive Quant Local market rank Global sector rank Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. Two rankings: Local market (Australia & NZ) and Global sector (Banks) Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score. Suncorp Westpac Banking Corporati Westfield Corporation Commonwealth Bank National Australia Bank Scentre Group 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4 Suncorp Westpac Banking Corporati Westfield Corporation Commonwealth Bank National Australia Bank Scentre Group -3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. Suncorp Westpac Banking Corporati Westfield Corporation Commonwealth Bank National Australia Bank Scentre Group 0.2 0.2 0.5-0.2-0.6 0.1-0.1 Suncorp Westpac Banking Corporati Westfield Corporation Commonwealth Bank National Australia Bank Scentre Group -3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. Price to Cash FY0 Price to Sales LTM Price to Book FY0 EV/EBITDA FY0 3m Recom. Revisions Sales Revisions 3 Month Profit Margin FY1 CPS Growth FY1-25% -28% -20% -22% Negatives Positives 25% 24% 24% 24% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market. Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score -0.26-0.16-0.02-0.44-0.03-0.38-0.06 0.18 1.46 0.03-0.02 Percentile relative to sector(/661) Percentile relative to market(/397) 0 50 100 0 50 100 0 0 1 1 Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 1 October 2015 6
Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down 60 100% in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 40% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 30% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 30 June 2015 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 46.23% 58.36% 47.27% 44.20% 60.65% 43.01% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 9.68% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 37.67% 25.65% 29.09% 49.29% 34.19% 40.93% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 5.53% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 16.10% 15.99% 23.64% 6.52% 5.16% 16.06% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 1.38% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) ANZ AU vs ASX 100, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2015 12-month target price methodology ANZ AU: A$34.15 based on a DDM/PE methodology Company-specific disclosures: ANZ AU: MACQUARIE CAPITAL (NEW ZEALAND) LIMITED or one of its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd in the past 12 months, for which it received compensation. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures. Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 31-Aug-2015 ANZ AU Neutral A$34.15 06-Aug-2015 ANZ AU Neutral A$33.56 23-Jul-2015 ANZ AU Neutral A$34.83 20-Jul-2015 ANZ AU Underperform A$34.13 25-Jun-2015 ANZ AU Underperform A$33.91 20-May-2015 ANZ AU Underperform A$33.66 05-May-2015 ANZ AU Underperform A$35.21 17-Feb-2015 ANZ AU Underperform A$34.24 31-Oct-2014 ANZ AU Underperform A$31.26 22-Oct-2014 ANZ AU Underperform A$31.32 25-Sep-2014 ANZ AU Underperform A$31.41 16-Sep-2014 ANZ AU Underperform A$32.95 15-Aug-2014 ANZ AU Underperform A$32.59 02-Jul-2014 ANZ AU Underperform A$33.81 01-May-2014 ANZ AU Underperform A$34.70 20-Mar-2014 ANZ AU Neutral A$34.36 11-Feb-2014 ANZ AU Neutral A$34.06 22-Jan-2014 ANZ AU Neutral A$34.14 04-Dec-2013 ANZ AU Neutral A$33.01 29-Oct-2013 ANZ AU Neutral A$34.02 17-Oct-2013 ANZ AU Neutral A$33.48 16-Sep-2013 ANZ AU Outperform A$36.02 1 October 2015 7
16-Aug-2013 ANZ AU Outperform A$35.52 09-Jul-2013 ANZ AU Outperform A$35.50 21-Jun-2013 ANZ AU Outperform A$35.53 31-May-2013 ANZ AU Outperform A$34.93 30-Apr-2013 ANZ AU Outperform A$34.25 21-Mar-2013 ANZ AU Outperform A$31.00 15-Feb-2013 ANZ AU Outperform A$30.53 01-Feb-2013 ANZ AU Outperform A$29.40 24-Jan-2013 ANZ AU Outperform A$28.89 11-Jan-2013 ANZ AU Outperform A$28.57 25-Oct-2012 ANZ AU Outperform A$27.93 02-Oct-2012 ANZ AU Outperform A$27.89 Target price risk disclosures: ANZ AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Ltd total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group s Investment Banking activities. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited (ABN 58 002 832 126, AFSL No. 238947) a Participant of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Equities Limited (ABN 41 002 574 923, AFSL No. 237504) ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN 46 008 583 542, AFSL No. 237502) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989. Any MGL subsidiary noted in this research, apart from MBL, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. 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The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures. 1 October 2015 8