Regional Issues Forum Labor Force Trends in Northern Colorado Elizabeth Garner State Demography Office Colorado Department of Local Affairs 2015 www.colorado.gov/demography
Big Picture - 2013-2014 Pop Change US 318 million, + 2.3 million or.7% Colorado 5,355,000 Ranked 4 th fastest 1.6% - ND, NV, TX 8 th absolute growth 83,700 TX, CA, FL, GA, AZ, NC, WA Range in Colorado - +15,000 to -400 Larimer 2.4% - +7,700 = Total 323K Weld 2.1% - +5,800 = Total 276K
100,000 80,000 Colorado New Jobs and Net Migration New Jobs Net Migration 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040-20,000-40,000 Source: State Demography Office
Jobs and the Economy
Employment & Wage % Change 2008-2014 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Colorado Larimer Weld Employment Growth Avg Weekly Wage Growth
Age and the Labor Force
Falling Labor Force Participation Rates Overall labor force participation rates will continue to decline (as they have since 2000) through 2040. Sharpest declines will occur this decade with the rapid aging of the population. Male participation will decline more than female participation.
Share of labor force by age group State Demography Office
Millennial
Millennial
Share of Net Increase in Working Age Population, 2015-2020 American Indian, NH Black, NH White, NH Asian, NH Hispanic 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Labor Force tightening forces Structural labor force participation rates peaked in 2010 due to aging Female share of the labor force peaked in 2010 at 46%. Growth in Leavers (exiting the labor force) will create more demand for workers. Fewer Gen X Higher un/under employment for 18-34 year olds. Other states experiencing same concerns. Aging around the world.
Larimer Commuting Weld Commuting
Current Trends
10.0% Annual job Growth Rates 1st Half '14 to 1st Half '15 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Colorado Larmier Weld
Potential Impacts from slowing in oil and gas in Weld January 2015 will show up as peak employment From January-June, Weld down about 1,800 in the mining/oil/gas industry. Weld will still show positive job growth in 2015. Slowing in Oil and Gas may help other industries. Total impact could be a loss of 2,500-6,000 jobs in the Oil and Gas and related industries.
Summary Northern Colorado fast growing region.even without Oil and Gas. Labor market has been tightening due to changes in the age distribution as well as other demographic factors. Oil and Gas and related industries have been and will continue to lose jobs for how long? Both Weld and Larimer have a diverse industrial base and should be able to manage the downturn. Slowing in Oil and Gas may help labor force conditions for other sectors. Can Northern Colorado continue to complete for the Best and the Brightest??
Thank you State Demography Office Department of Local Affairs Elizabeth Garner Elizabeth.garner@state.co.us 303-864-7750 www.colorado.gov/demography
State Demography Office
+8% since 2008
+16% since 2008
Forecasts - Trends Growth in race/ethnic diversity especially at the young end. Growth in Young and Aging Growth in both high and low end service Labor Force Changes Income Challenges Transition Decade
Census Bureau
Growth in leavers will create more demand for workers Source: State Demography Office
Colorado labor force change 1970-2040
Labor Force Boomers are 37% of the labor force (2010) Staying longer in workforce want and need to Participation rates for ages 65+ increasing. Age relations in the workplace Approx. 1,000,000 workers aging out the next 20 years. Increase demands on labor force Demands will vary by industry Education, Health, Utilities, Mining, Govt. Current low numbers of Long Term Care Workers and Gerontologist Doctors accepting Medicare Increase in demand for caregivers informal sector Metro/urban demands will impact rural areas
2015 POVERTY GUIDELINES FOR THE 48 CONTIGUOUS STATES AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA Persons in family/household Poverty guideline 1 $11,770 2 $15,930 3 $20,090 4 $24,250 5 $28,410 6 $32,570 7 $36,730 8 $40,890
Median Home Value
1990-2010 2010-2030 2030+ Source: State Demography Office