Impacts and Economic Costs of River Floods in the EU and Costs of Adaptation

Impacts and Economic Costs of River Floods in the EU and Costs of Adaptation Luc Feyen Getty Images Joint Research Centre European Commission Water and Adaptation to Climate Change in Transboundary Basins: Making Adaptation Work Geneva, 25-26 April 2012 1

Flood risk management in the EU Floods Directive (Directive 2007/60/EC) Integrated river basin management Assessment and management of flood risk Coordination between Member States in shared river basins Solidarity not transfer burden downstream Include long-term developments (climate change and land use dynamics) Solidarity mechanism European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF) Grant rapid financial assistance to disaster-stricken Member States Adaptation policy European Climate Adaptation Platform: CLIMATE-ADAPT (http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/) 2

Pan-European Flood Risk Assessment land use dynamics model land use transport network zoning maps land demand land use scenarios exposure vulnerability socio-economic scenarios hazard LISFLOOD risk climate models high-resolution climate scenarios 3 3

Ensemble-average in flood hazard 2050s 2080s SRES A1B Relative change in 100-yr event between 1961-1990 and future period 4

Consistency in projections decrease increase SRES A1B 2080s Number of model runs (out of 12) showing consistent increase or decrease 5

From flood hazard to consequences Direct Indirect Tangible damage to buildings damage to infrastructure damage to contents loss industrial production traffic disruption emergency costs Intangible loss of life health effects loss ecosystem services psychological effects inconvenience of post- flood recovery combine inundation with land use and flood depth - damage functions 6 6

Projected change in flood damage Relative change between 1961-1990 and 2080s (only climate change, static exposure) SRES A1B 7

Expected Annual Damage (in billion/year) Flood damages for EU27 100 Expected Annual Damage EU27 (in billion /year 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 industry industry commerce commerce transport agriculture transport residential agriculture residential C E CE MC C E CE MC CC Ec CC+Ec M-CC CC Ec CC+Ec M-CC CC Ec CC+Ec M-CC CC Ec CC+Ec M-CC CC Ec CC+Ec M-CC baseline 00s 20s 50s 80s 1961-1990 C E CE MC 1981-2010 C E CE MC 2011-2040 C E CE MC SRES A1B 2041-2070 2071-2100 8

Adaptation no detailed cost-benefit analysis of potential measures measures implemented locally - impossible to model at EU scale acceptable level of risk maintained protection up to 100-year return level increases with flood level average benefit/cost ratio derived from literature locally different ratio may apply Future damage avoided damage or benefits current 100-y level protection future 100-y level protection cost of adaptation benefit/cost ratio = 4/1 9

Costs + benefits of adaptation for EU27 Costs/benefits Cost/benefits of adaptation adaptation EU27 (in (in billion/year) billion /year) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Costs - Climate change only Costs - Climate change only Benefits - Climate change only Benefits - Climate change only Costs - Climate and socio-economic change Benefits - Climate and socio-economic change Costs - Climate and socio-economic change Benefits - Climate and socio-economic change SRES A1B 1961-1990 baseline 1981-2010 00s 2011-2040 20s 2041-2070 50s 2071-2100 80s 10

Conclusions and recommendations Flood damages projected to rise in many regions of the EU Climate and socio-economic drivers Strong spatial variability in projections across Europe British Isles, Western parts of Europe, northern Italy strongest increase Snowmelt-floods will become less severe Large uncertainty in projections Uncertainty socio-economic developments Climate-model variability (precipitation) - contradicting models Key research challenges Adaptation can considerably reduce impacts Recognise and work with uncertainty No-regret measures Strategies that are robust or adaptable to changes 11

Thank you for your attention luc.feyen@jrc.ec.europa.eu