AUSTRALIA 3PL AU Price (at 09:19, 02 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.55 Valuation - DCF A$ 2.65-3.35 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +18.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Consumer Services Market cap A$m 344 30-day avg turnover A$m 0.1 Number shares on issue m 134.8 Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Jun 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Revenue m 36.5 44.2 52.8 60.5 EBIT m 11.0 13.8 17.9 21.2 Reported profit m 8.5 3.9 14.0 16.4 Adjusted profit m 8.5 11.0 14.0 16.4 Gross cashflow m 10.5 14.0 18.0 21.2 CFPS 7.8 10.4 13.4 15.8 CFPS growth % nmf 33.7 28.6 17.8 PGCFPS x 32.8 24.5 19.1 16.2 PGCFPS rel x 3.40 2.50 2.21 2.05 EPS adj 6.3 8.2 10.4 12.1 EPS adj growth % nmf 29.0 27.1 16.8 PER adj x 40.2 31.2 24.5 21.0 PER rel x 2.21 1.65 1.65 1.61 Total DPS 0.0 2.4 3.1 3.6 Total div yield % 0.0 0.9 1.2 1.4 Franking % nmf 100 100 100 ROA % 21.8 23.1 22.8 21.1 ROE % 119.1 120.6 87.7 60.6 EV/EBITDA x 25.3 19.5 15.0 12.6 Net debt/equity % -324.8-206.8-153.8-134.7 P/BV x 47.9 31.0 16.5 10.4 3PL AU vs Small Ordinaries, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2015 (all figures in AUD unless noted) 2 March 2015 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Coming to America... Event (3PL) reported 1H15 NPAT of $4.1m (Macq E $3.7m), up 28% on pcp, and 10% ahead of Macquarie estimates. Impact Tracking well. Revenues came in marginally above expectations (+2%), with NPAT also finishing ahead (+10%). Given the sales cycle, we did not expect a material increase in licence numbers across the regions; however, it was positive to see c200k licences added throughout the half. Given 3PL recognizes the revenues from Mathletics, Spellodrome and IntoScience sales progressively over a 12-month licence period, 1H15 financial results are largely a reflection of the 2H14 sales period. Around the grounds... ANZ revenue of $12.3m (vs Macq E $11.6m) was a good result. Importantly, 3PL has experienced no negative movement in retention rates (mid-high 80s) from the 15% price increase across Mathletics and Reading Eggs products. EMEA revenue of $4.2m (vs Macq E $4.1m) was broadly in line. It was a good result over the half, driven by increased Mathletics licence penetration in the UK secondary school market. Americas revenue of $1.9m (vs Macq E $2.0m) was broadly in line. Initial feedback at the district level and school level is positive, with pockets of strength appearing across New York, Illinois, Chicago and Texas. California is a region where 3PL will look to add more staff over the short term. Strong cash flow will re-emerge in 2H. 3PL ended the year with net cash of $15.8m (vs $16m as of 9 July 2014). OFC at -$1.7m highlights the seasonality inherent in the business model. We expect cashflow conversion to reverse in the 2H as the balance sheet reflects a strong sales period over Feb-June. US the focus. Sales staff have been added and back-end analytics have been enhanced in anticipation of the key US selling period of April, May and June. We forecast 3PL will track ahead of the +39k addition student licences needed to meet prospectus forecasts. We maintain our expected licence rate increase of +303k in FY15, which aligns with +304k licences added in the pcp. Earnings and target price revision FY15e/FY15e EPS largely unchanged following 1H15 earnings update. TP unchanged at $3.00. Price catalyst 12-month price target: A$3.00 based on a DCF methodology. Catalyst: FY15 results. Potential update at Macquarie Conference in May-15. Action and recommendation A good result beating Macquarie estimates. 3PL is well positioned to deliver material earnings growth over the next few years driven by offshore expansion and ARPU increases in more mature markets like Australia. There is considerable leverage to be realised in the model once price rises flow through local operations. We remain attracted to the medium term licence and revenue growth opportunity, high margins and capital-light business model. Outperform. Please refer to page 8 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
1H15 result (3PL) reported 1H15 NPAT of $4.1m (Macq E $3.7m), up 28% on pcp, and 10% ahead of Macquarie estimates. We outline the result detail below: Fig 1 1H15 snapshot; 28% NPAT growth 1H14(a) 2H14(a) FY14(a) 1H15(a) Macq E % Diff Revenue 15.2 21.3 36.5 18.4 21% 18.1 2% Employee expenses 7.1 8.2 15.3 8.6 8.2 Marketing expenses 1.2 0.8 2.0 0.9 0.8 Technology and occupancy 1.9 1.7 3.6 expenses 1.3 1.8 Other expenses 0.8 1.8 2.6 1.3 2.0 EBITDA 4.2 8.8 13.0 6.3 50% 5.3 19% EBITDA margin (%) 28% 41% 36% 34% 29% Depreciation & amortisation (0.8) (1.1) (1.9) (1.3) (1.3) EBIT 3.4 7.6 11.0 5.0 47% 4.0 25% Interest 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 Profit before tax 3.6 7.8 11.4 5.3 47% 4.3 25% Tax expense (0.4) (2.4) (2.8) (1.2) (0.5) NPAT 3.2 5.3 8.5 4.1 28% 3.7 10% Net Abnormals/Extra 0.0 0.0 0.0 (7.1) 0.0 Reported Earnings 3.2 5.3 8.5 (3.0) -194% 3.7-180% Adjusted Earnings 3.2 5.3 8.5 4.1 28% 3.7 10% EPS (adj/diluted) 4.0 6.3 3.0 2.8 10% EPS growth 24.3 216.5 28.3 17.1 DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBITDA/Sales 41.2 35.5 34.2 29.4 EBIT/Sales 35.8 30.2 27.2 22.0 Revenue growth 10.4 14.1 21.1 19.0 EBIT growth 62.3 401.4 47.1 17.3 Source: Company accounts, Macquarie Research, March 2015 Revenues came in marginally above expectations (+2%), with NPAT also finishing ahead (+10%). Given the sales cycle, we did not expect a material increase in licence numbers across the regions; however, it was positive to see c200k licences added throughout the half. 3PL derives a majority (c75%) of revenues from sales transactions occurring in February and March and to a lesser degree in April, May, June and July. Given 3PL recognizes the revenues from Mathletics, Spellodrome and IntoScience sales progressively over a 12-month licence period, 1H15 financial results are largely a reflection of the 2H14 sales period. Looking at 1H15 by region (Figure 2 and Figure 3): ANZ revenue of $12.3m (vs Macq E $11.6m) was a good result. Revenue was driven by higher ARPU from the 15% price rise across Mathletics and Reading Eggs products from June 2014. Importantly, 3PL has experienced no negative movement in retention rates from the price increase, highlighting the stickiness of products once embedded in a school s workflow. The region ended the half with 2.7m (+135k hoh) student licences. EMEA revenue of $4.2m (vs Macq E $4.1m) was broadly in line. It was a good result over the half, driven by increased Mathletics licence penetration in the UK secondary school market. Middle East remains largely stable. The region ended the half with 1.5m (+61k hoh) student licences. Americas revenue of $1.9m (vs Macq E $2.0m) was broadly in line. Increasing penetration within key regions continues to be a major focus for the company. Initial feedback at the district level and school level is positive, with pockets of strength appearing across New York, Illinois, Chicago and Texas. California is a region where 3PL will look to add more staff over the short term. 2 March 2015 2
3PL now have 32 sales people on the ground (18 in North America and 14 in Canada), up from 20 as of March 2014. Staff have been added in anticipation of the back-end analytics release which should assist sales at a district level. Management appear confident in hitting FY15 target licence places, with only 39k additional student licences needed (vs the additional 304k licences achieved in FY14). The region ended the half with 664k (+2k hoh) student licences. Fig 2 Total licence growth of 19% forecast for FY15e Fig 3... Geographic diversification from growing offshore revenue basis Total Licences ('000) 6,000 $1.9m (10%) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 967 662 664 316 358 1811 1,541 1,480 1,005 902 247 666 2,236 2,500 2,524 2,659 2789 1,486 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1H15 FY15(e) $4.2m (23%) $12.3m (67%) Australia and New Zealand EMEA Americas Australia and New Zealand EMEA Americas Source: 3PL, Macquarie Research, March 2015 Source: 3PL, Macquarie Research, March 2015 Balance sheet and cash flow 3PL ended the year with net cash of $15.8m (vs $16m as of 9 July 2014). Operating cash flow of -$1.7m highlights the seasonality inherent in the business model. The group experienced -$7.7m working capital movements from a decrease in deferred revenues. We expect cashflow conversion to reverse in the 2H as the balance sheet reflects a strong sales period over Feb-June. 3PL remains well capitalised to participate in future acquisitions in adjacent spaces. Areas of opportunity are in platform, product (with a potential sales team) and data analytics. In our view, the most likely region for acquisition is in the Americas where the business is currently building out scale. We have not factored in the ability of 3P to acquire new products to leverage its existing school relationships. We note the first dividend is expected to be declared for the year ending FY15 and paid in FY16. Directors intend to target a dividend payout ratio of 20%-30% statutory NPAT. 2 March 2015 3
FY15 result expectations We outline FY15 result expectations in the table below. Fig 4 Forecast 29% NPAT growth in FY15 FY14(a) 1H15(a) 2H15(e) FY15(e) % chg Prospectus % diff Revenue 36.5 18.4 25.8 44.2 21% 43.8 1.0% Employee expenses 15.3 8.6 9.3 17.9 17.9 Marketing expenses 2.0 0.9 1.1 2.0 2.0 Technology and occupancy 3.6 1.3 2.2 3.5 3.5 expenses Other expenses 2.6 1.3 2.7 4.0 4.0 EBITDA 13.0 6.3 10.5 16.8 30% 16.4 2.7% EBITDA margin (%) 36% 34% 41% 38% 37% Depreciation & amortisation (1.9) (1.3) (1.7) (3.0) (3.0) EBIT 11.0 5.0 8.8 13.8 25% 13.4 3.3% Interest 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 Profit before tax 11.4 5.3 9.0 14.3 13.9 Tax expense (2.8) (1.2) (2.1) (3.3) (3.2) NPAT 8.5 4.1 6.9 11.0 29% 10.7 3.2% Net Abnormals/Extra 0.0 (7.1) 0.0 (7.1) 0.0 Reported Earnings 8.5 (3.0) 6.9 3.9 10.7 Adjusted Earnings 8.5 4.1 6.9 11.0 10.7 3.2% EPS (adj/diluted) 6.3 3.0 5.1 8.2 EPS growth 216.5 28.3 29.4 29.0 DPS 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.4 EBITDA/Sales 35.5 34.2 40.7 38.0 EBIT/Sales 30.2 27.2 34.1 31.2 Revenue growth 14.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 EBIT growth 401.4 47.1 15.5 25.3 Source: 3LP, Macquarie Research, March 2015 Our earnings splits are based on revenue seasonality of 42/58 and EBITDA seasonality of 38/62. We forecast the revenue seasonality to capture: a) the 3-5 months recognition of the 15% price increase across ANZ Mathletics licences; and, b) the 15% increase across Reading Eggs products, which is recognised at the time the licence is sold. We forecast ANZ revenue growth of 17%. The result will be partly driven by the 15% price increases in Mathletics and Reading Eggs, but also licence growth of 265k new licences. The number of new schools running trials across ANZ, the cross selling of Reading Eggs and the launch of IntoScience support our FY15 outlook. We forecast EMEA revenue growth of 21%. Growth will be underpinned by the cross sell of Reading Eggs products and further penetration in Mathletics. The UK had a strong sales period in July-December (+61k), and we expect will continue into the next sales period leading into the Northern Hemisphere school academic year. We retain our higher than prospectus licence rate in Americas of 967k (from 701k). We believe 3PL are tracking ahead of the +39k additional student licences needed (vs the additional 304k licences achieved in FY14) to meet FY15 prospectus forecasts. While Americas initial licence growth is encouraging, further investment in sales capability will taper regional earnings over the short term. We feel if the group is tracking well ahead of prospectus revenues over the 2H, they may take the initiative and invest further into North American operations as they grow scale and take advantage of sales pipeline opportunities. 2 March 2015 4
Valuation Our preferred valuation methodology to capture the business significant long-term total licence growth and pricing opportunities is a DCF. Our DCF valuation is $3.00 per share. The DCF is highly sensitive to changes in two key revenue assumptions: number of licences and average revenue per licence. To convey the range of potential valuations with various subjective assumptions, we have adopted a scenario approach. This is reflected in our $2.65-$3.35 valuation range. Our central case assumes 3PL will achieve 13.9m student licences by FY22 (FY15e 5.6m) at an average APRU of $9.6. A sensitivity analysis of ARPU finds that +/-$1 change to average ARPU by FY22 translates to a +-20% DCF range, while a 200bp change in annual student licence growth rate by FY22 translates to a +-25% DCF range. Our central case has taken a relatively conservative assumption regarding pricing power in the domestic market ahead of feedback of the current c15% price increase across Australia. We have also taken a relatively conservative approach to the uptake of IntoScience. While appearing differentiated and very promising, it is still a new product to the market. Furthermore, we have not factored in the ability of 3P to develop or acquire new products to leverage its existing school relationships. While these factors offer upside to our valuation case, we do also acknowledge 3PL operate in a highly competitive market. Fig 5 Macquarie DCF valuation range $2.65 - $3.35 base case $3.00ps Cashflows FY15(e) FY16(e) FY17(e) FY18(e) FY19(e) FY20(e) FY21(e) FY22(e) EBIT 13.8 17.9 21.2 25.8 30.3 36.2 44.7 54.3 Tax Payments -2.8-3.3-4.3-5.0-6.0-7.1-8.3-10.3 Depreciation 3.0 4.0 4.9 6.0 7.6 8.3 8.9 9.5 Changes in working capital 2.3 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.7 5.9 Capital expenditure -7.6-8.0-8.4-8.8-9.2-9.7-10.2-10.7 Available Cashflow 8.7 14.2 17.0 21.5 26.2 31.7 39.9 48.8 Number of years 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 Present Value of cashflows 7.9 11.5 12.4 14.2 15.6 17.0 19.2 21.2 Perpetuity Value LT growth rate 3.0% WACC 11.0% Initial Perpetuity cashflow 48.7 Future Present Value of perpetuity 608.4 PV of Perpetuity 264.2 Present value 118.7 Total present value 382.9 Less Net Debt -30.2 MV of Equity 413.8 Equiv Ord Capital 134.8 Equity value per share $3.00 Source: Macquarie Research, August 2014 2 March 2015 5
(3PL:$2.55) 2-Mar-15 Interim results 1H/14A 2H/14A 1H/15A 2H/15E Profit & Loss 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Revenue 15.2 21.3 18.4 25.8 Revenue $m 36.5 44.2 52.8 60.5 EBITDA $m 4.2 8.8 6.3 10.5 EBITDA $m 13.0 16.8 21.9 26.1 Depreciation $m 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.7 Depreciation $m 1.9 3.0 4.0 4.9 Amortisation of goodwill $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amortisation of goodwill $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT $m 3.4 7.6 5.0 8.8 EBIT $m 11.0 13.8 17.9 21.2 Net Interest expense $m -0.2-0.2-0.3-0.2 Interest expense $m -0.4-0.5-0.3-0.1 Pre-Tax Profit $m 3.6 7.8 5.3 9.0 Pre-Tax Profit $m 11.4 14.3 18.2 21.3 Tax Expense $m 0.4 2.4 1.2 2.1 Tax Expense $m 2.8 3.3 4.2 4.9 Net Profit $m 3.2 5.3 4.1 6.9 Net Profit $m 8.5 11.0 14.0 16.4 Outside equity interests $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Outside equity interests $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Abn/Extra $m 0.0 0.0-7.1 0.0 Net Abnormals/Extra. $m 0.0-7.1 0.0 0.0 Reported Earnings $m 3.2 5.3-3.0 6.9 Reported Earnings $m 8.5 3.9 14.0 16.4 Adjusted Earnings $m 3.2 5.3 4.1 6.9 Adjusted Earnings $m 8.5 11.0 14.0 16.4 Gross Cashflow $m 4.4 7.8 6.1 8.4 Gross Cashflow $m 12.2 14.5 18.9 21.9 EPS (Adj/dil) c 2.4 4.0 3.0 5.1 EPS (adj/diluted) c 6.3 8.2 10.4 12.1 EPS growth % -300.0 24.3 28.3 29.4 EPS growth % 216.5 29.0 27.1 16.8 CFPS c 3.3 5.8 4.5 6.2 PE (adj) x 40.2 31.2 24.5 21.0 CFPS Growth % nmf 7677.0 38.1 7.4 CFPS c 9.1 10.7 14.0 16.3 EBITDA/Sales % 27.6 41.2 34.2 40.7 CFPS Growth % nmf 18.5 30.8 15.9 EBIT/Sales % 22.4 35.8 27.2 34.1 PGCFPS x 28.2 23.8 18.2 15.7 Earnings Split % 37.4 62.6 37.2 62.8 DPS c 0.0 2.4 3.1 3.6 Revenue Growth % 19.7 10.4 21.1 21.1 Yield % 0.0 0.9 1.2 1.4 EBIT Growth % nmf 62.3 47.1 15.5 Franking % nmf 100.0 100.0 100.0 Profit and Loss ratios 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Cashflow Analysis 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Revenue Growth % 14.1 21.1 19.4 14.7 EBIT Growth % 401.4 25.3 29.6 18.4 Pre-tax Profit $m 11.4 14.3 18.2 21.3 EBITDA/Sales % 35.5 38.0 41.5 43.1 Depreciation & Amortisation $m 1.9 3.0 4.0 4.9 EBIT/Sales % 30.2 31.2 33.9 35.0 Tax Paid $m -1.1-2.8-3.3-4.2 Effective tax rate % 25.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 Gross cashflow $m 12.2 14.5 18.9 21.9 Payout ratio % 0.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 Changes in working capital $m 4.3 2.3 3.5 3.6 EV/EBITA x 29.0 23.2 17.4 14.1 Other $m 1.7-4.5-1.1-0.5 EV/EBITDA x 24.7 19.1 14.2 11.5 Operating Cashflow $m 18.2 12.3 21.3 25.0 EV/Sales* x 8.8 7.3 5.9 4.9 Acquisitions $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capex - Plant & Equip. $m -0.3-0.7-0.7-0.8 Balance sheet ratios Asset Sales $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ROE % 62.5 120.6 87.7 60.6 IT development $m -6.6-6.9-7.2-7.6 ROA % 39.7 47.2 54.0 59.0 Investing cashflow $m -7.0-7.6-8.0-8.4 ROFE % -1651.2-97.1-153.1-184.6 Dividend (ordinary) $m 0.0 0.0-4.3-4.1 Net Debt $m -23.6-23.1-32.2-44.7 Equity raised $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/Equity % < 0 < 0 < 0 < 0 Other $m 0.1-5.2 0.0 0.0 Interest Cover x nmf nmf nmf nmf Financing cashflow $m 0.1-5.2-4.3-4.1 Price/NTA x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NTA per share $ -0.01 0.01 0.09 0.18 Net Change in cash/debt $m 11.3-0.5 9.1 12.5 EFPOWA m 134.8 134.8 134.8 134.8 Historical performance 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A Balance Sheet 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Cash $m 24.4 36.4 54.4 74.4 Revenue $m 23.8 28.4 32.0 36.5 Receivables $m 5.9 6.2 3.7 4.2 EBITDA $m -0.1 3.8 3.5 13.0 Inventories $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Depreciation/Amortisation $m 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.9 Investments $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT $m -0.8 2.5 2.2 11.0 Property, plant & equipment $m 1.3 5.9 9.9 13.4 Net interest expense $m -0.1-0.3-0.3-0.4 Intangibles $m 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 Pre-Tax Profit $m -0.7 2.8 2.5 11.4 Other Assets $m 9.8 11.2 11.2 11.2 Tax Expense $m 0.5 0.2-0.2 2.8 Total Assets $m 50.6 68.9 88.3 112.4 Net Profit $m -1.2 2.6 2.7 8.5 Payables $m 8.0 10.6 11.6 15.7 Net Abn/Extra $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Short Term Debt $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Long Term Debt $m 0.8 13.3 22.2 29.7 Reported Earnings $m 2.6 2.7 8.5 Other Liabilities $m 34.5 33.8 33.5 33.7 Adjusted Earnings $m 2.6 2.7 8.5 Total Liabilities $m 43.3 57.7 67.4 79.2 Ordinary DPS c 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Shareholders Funds $m 7.2 11.1 20.9 33.1 EBITDA/Sales % -0.4 13.4 10.9 35.5 Minority Interests $m 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 EBIT/Sales % -3.4 8.8 6.9 30.2 Total Shareholders Equity $m 7.3 11.2 20.9 33.2 ROE % nmf nmf 26.8 62.5 ROFE % nmf nmf 29.2-1651.2 Total Funds employed $m 50.6 68.9 88.3 112.4 EFPOWA m 134.8 134.8 134.8 134.8 Student licences 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Licenced users EOY ANZ 2,524 2,789 2,956 3,193 EMEA 1,480 1,811 2,094 2,420 Americas 662 967 1,160 1,427 Total Licences EOY 4,666 5,567 6,210 7,040 Avg. Revenue/licence ANZ $9.8 $11.2 $11.7 $12.3 EMEA $7.6 $6.6 $6.8 $7.0 Americas $7.7 $6.7 $6.7 $6.7 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2015 Revenue ANZ 24.6 28.9 33.2 37.1 EMEA 8.6 10.3 12.8 15.2 Americas 3.4 5.0 6.8 8.3 Total Revenue 36.5 44.2 52.8 60.5 2 March 2015 6
Fundamentals Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a strong positive view on. The strongest style exposure is Quality, indicating this stock is likely to have a superior and more stable underlying earnings stream. The weakest style exposure is Price Momentum, indicating this stock has had weak medium to long term returns which often persist into the future. 35/295 Global Alpha Model Sector Rank % of BUY recommendations 100% (2/2) Number of Price Target downgrades 0 Number of Price Target upgrades 0 Attractive Quant Rank within Country Rank within Sector Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. The rankings are displayed relative to the sector and country. Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score. 1.0 Thorn Group 0.9 Thorn Group Prime Media Group STW Communications Group The Reject Shop -1.1-0.8 0.1 Prime Media Group STW Communications Group The Reject Shop -3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. Thorn Group Prime Media Group STW Communications Group The Reject Shop -0.7-0.6-0.9-0.9-0.3 Thorn Group Prime Media Group STW Communications Group The Reject Shop -3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and country Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score 1.01 0.02 0.14 0.73 0.23 0.01 1.19 0.48-2.33 0.22-0.81 Percentile relative to sector(/295) Percentile relative to country(/240) 0 50 100 0 50 100 0 0 1 1 For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 2 March 2015 7
Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down 60 100% in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 40% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 30% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 31 December 2014 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 51.80% 58.06% 45.07% 44.42% 60.54% 46.81% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 5.29% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 31.80% 27.37% 30.99% 50.10% 35.37% 33.51% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 3.08% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 16.39% 14.57% 23.94% 5.48% 4.08% 19.68% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.44% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) 3PL AU vs Small Ordinaries, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February 2015 12-month target price methodology 3PL AU: A$3.00 based on a DCF methodology Company-specific disclosures: 3PL AU: MACQUARIE CAPITAL (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED or one of its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of Ltd in the past 12 months, for which it received compensation. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures. Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 26-Aug-2014 3PL AU Outperform A$3.00 22-Aug-2014 3PL AU Outperform A$2.85 Target price risk disclosures: 3PL AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: The views expressed in this research reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd (ABN 94 122 169 279, AFSL No. 318062) ( MGL ) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group ) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited (ABN 58 002 832 126, AFSL No. 238947) a Participant of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Equities Limited (ABN 41 002 574 923, AFSL No. 237504) ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN 46 008 583 542, AFSL No. 237502) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989. Any MGL subsidiary noted in this research, apart from MBL, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 2 March 2015 8
1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This research has been prepared for the use of the clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return e-mail and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Macquarie Group does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures. 2 March 2015 9