AUSTRALIA KCN AU Price (at 6:11, 31 Jul 215 GMT) Underperform A$.67 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).3 12-month target A$.3 12-month TSR % -54.9 Volatility Index Very High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m 149 3-day avg turnover A$m.4 Number shares on issue m 223.6 Investment fundamentals Year end 3 Jun 214A 215E 216E 217E Revenue m 328.3 313.4 281.8 239.3 EBIT m 3.9 13.8-5.8 12.4 Reported profit m -96.3-14.8-9.9 4.8 Adjusted profit m -12.2 5.6-9.9 4.8 Gross cashflow m 45.8 61.7 55.5 62.1 CFPS 26.1 27.5 24.7 27.6 CFPS growth % -57.6 5.4-1.1 11.9 PGCFPS x 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.4 PGCFPS rel x.27.26.31.32 EPS adj -6.8 2.5-4.4 2.1 EPS adj growth % nmf nmf nmf nmf Total DPS.... Total div yield %.... ROA %.6 2.1 -.9 2.2 ROE % -2.7 1.3-2.2 1.1 EV/EBITDA x 3.2 3.3 3.9 3.3 Net debt/equity % 22.9 18.1 14.4 8.2 P/BV x.3.3.3.3 KCN AU vs Small Ordinaries, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, July 215 (all figures in AUD unless noted) 31 July 215 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited June quarter costs better than expected Event KCN has reported full production data and costs for the June quarter. Preliminary data was reported earlier in the month. Impact Group production in line with expectations: KCN produced 55.6koz in the 4QFY15, in line with our 55.4koz forecast. The solid result enabled KCN to achieve FY15 production of 25koz, in line with the guidance range of 195-25koz. Cost performance was also mixed although an overall improvement on our forecasts. Chatree reported cash cost inclusive of royalties of US$722/oz, well below our US$917/oz. Challenger reported A$1,11/oz, 4% above our forecast. Cost for the group were a 14% beat on our expectation. Chatree recovery slower than expected: The production recovery at Chatree post the enforced shutdown in January/February was weaker than expected. The mine produced 36.4koz, 12% below our forecast. The slower ramp-up resulted in production for the full-year of 125koz, missing guidance of 13-14koz. Challenger surprised on the upside: KCN s Challenger mine delivered a positive result in the 4QFY15 with production of 19.2koz, 37% higher than our 14koz forecast. The strong result enabled Challenger to comfortably beat its 65-75koz guidance range with FY15 production coming in at 8.2koz. FY16 guidance softer than expected. KCN also provided guidance for FY16. The company expects to produce 125, to 135,oz from Chatree. Challenger is expected to exhaust its reserves in the March quarter of 216 and consequently KCN expects to produce 4, to 45,oz, well short of our modelled 78,oz. Earnings and target price revision After incorporating the June quarter costs, our earnings forecast for FY15 rises to 2.5cps from -.7cps. The reduced FY16 outlook vs our expectation results in a 26% reduction in our earnings for FY16. Adjustments to our cost estimates have also resulted in changes to our forecasts beyond FY16. Our valuation of KCN increases to $.3/sh and consequently we raise our target price to $.3/sh. Price catalyst 12-month price target: A$.3 based on a NPV methodology. Catalyst: Greg Foulis recently join KCN as CEO and we expect an update on the strategy and outlook for the company in the coming months. Action and recommendation Underperform. A mixed result for KCN but overall a better than expected cost performance should keep the company in the black. We expect FY16 to be a year of transition for the company. Please refer to page 5 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
Mar 14 Jul 14 Nov 14 Mar 15 Jul 15 Nov 15 Mar 16 Jul 16 Nov 16 Mar 17 Jul 17 Nov 17 Mar 18 Jul 18 Nov 18 Mar 19 Jul 19 Nov 19 Mar 2 Jul 2 Nov 2 Mar 21 Mar 1 Sep 1 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Sep 12 Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Sep 15 Mar 16 Sep 16 Mar 17 Sep 17 Mar 18 Sep 18 Mar 19 Sep 19 Mar 2 Sep 2 Mar 1 Sep 1 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Sep 12 Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Sep 15 Mar 16 Sep 16 Mar 17 Sep 17 Mar 18 Sep 18 Mar 19 Sep 19 Mar 2 Sep 2 Macquarie Wealth Management Fig 1 Chatree annual production and costs Fig 2 Chatree quarterly production and costs 16 Chatree (koz) C1 cash costs (A$/oz) AISC (A$/oz) 2, 5 Chatree (koz) C1 cash costs (A$/oz) AISC (A$/oz) 1,8 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Source: KCN, Macquarie Research, July 215 Source: KCN, Macquarie Research, July 215 Fig 3 Challenger annual production and costs Fig 4 Challenger quarterly production and costs Challenger (koz) C1 cash costs (A$/oz) AISC (A$/oz) Challenger (koz) C1 cash costs (A$/oz) AISC (A$/oz) 16 2,5 3 2,5 14 12 2, 25 2, 1 1,5 2 1,5 8 15 6 4 2 1, 5 1 5 1, 5 Source: KCN, Macquarie Research, July 215 Source: KCN, Macquarie Research, July 215 Fig 5 KCN cumulative cash generation Fig 6 KCN NPV breakdown 2 Net cash (A$M) Market cap (A$m) 15 1 5-5 -1 Bowdens 1% Challenger -1% Undeveloped Resources 21% Nueva Esperanza 1% Chatree 67% -15 Source: KCN, IRESS, Macquarie Research, July 215 Source: KCN, Macquarie Research, July 215 31 July 215 2
Macquarie Wealth Management Fig 7 KCN summary financials ASX: KCN Price: (A$ps).67 Year end: Jun Rating: Underperform Up/dn TSR Mkt cap: (A$m) 15 Diluted shares (m) 224.6 Target:.3-55% -55% ASSUMPTIONS FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e ATTRIBUTABLE MINE OUTPUT FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e Exchange Rate A$/US$ 1.3.92.84.71.7.76 Gold production (equ) Spot Gold (US$/oz) 1,64 1,295 1,223 1,125 1,26 1,36 Chatree (koz) 133.7 134.5 125.1 127.5 127.5 127.5 12. Challenger (koz) 66.2 75. 8.2 41.2... RATIO ANALYSIS FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e Nueva Esperanza (koz)....... Diluted share capital m 151.8 172.2 224.6 224.6 224.6 324.6 Bowdens (koz)....... EPS (diluted and pre sig. items) A 19.7-7.1 2.5-4.4 2.1 1. Total (koz) 199.9 29.5 25.2 168.7 127.5 127.5 12. P/E x 3.4x -9.5x 26.7x -15.3x 31.2x 65.8x Cash costs - AISC CFPS A 56. 21.5 31.1 26. 27.5 17.3 Chatree (A$/oz) 1,36 978 1,21 1,24 1,286 1,328 1,355 P/CF x 1.2x 3.1x 2.2x 2.6x 2.4x 3.9x Challenger (A$/oz) 2,118 1,469 1,263 DPS A 5...... Nueva Esperanza (A$/oz) Dividend yield % 7.5%.%.%.%.%.% Bowdens (A$/oz) Franking Level % % % % % % % Cash costs - AISC (A$/oz) 1,478 1,246 1,214 1,57 1,427 1,466 1,489 Book value per share x 3.12 2.4 1.98 1.94 1.96 1.43 C1 Cash cost (A$/oz) 753 934 896 647 885 948 982 P/Book value x.2x.3x.3x.3x.3x.5x R.O.E. (pre sig items) % 6% -3% 1% -2% 1% 1% R.O.A. (pre sig items) % 4% 1% 2% -1% 2% 1% Interest Cover x 1.9x.3x 1.5x -.7x 2.3x 3.2x EV/Production (A$/oz) 1,117 1,66 1,88 1,323 1,752 1,752 1,861 EBITDA per share A$ps.76.36.31.26.3.18 EV/EBITDA x 2.7x 4.x 3.4x 3.7x 2.7x 2.5x OPERATIONAL OUTLOOK EARNINGS FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e Sales Revenue A$m 329 328 313 282 239 239 Other Revenue A$m Total Revenue A$m 329 328 313 282 239 239 Operating Costs A$m (197) (237) (218) (22) (149) (158) Operational EBITDA A$m 133 91 96 8 9 81 Exploration Expense/Write-offs A$m (1) () (1) (2) (2) (2) Corporate & Other Costs A$m (16) (29) (26) (2) (21) (21) EBITDA A$m 116 62 69 58 68 58 D&A A$m (86) (58) (55) (64) (56) (51) EBIT A$m 3 4 14 (6) 12 7 Net Interest A$m (16) (13) (9) (8) (5) (2) Profit Before Tax A$m 14 (9) 5 (14) 7 5 Tax Expense A$m 16 (3) 1 4 (2) (1) Minorities A$m Adjusted NPAT A$m 3 (12) 6 (1) 5 3 Significant Items (post tax) A$m (354) (84) (2) 25 Chatree (koz) Challenger (koz) AISC (A$/oz) 16 14 2 12 1 15 8 1 6 4 5 2 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e FY2e Reported NPAT A$m (324) (96) (15) (1) 5 3 RESERVES AND RESOURCES (ATTRIBUTABLE) Reserves Project Mt g/t koz CASHFLOW FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e Chatree 54.4.79 1,39 Net Profit A$m (324) (96) (15) (1) 5 3 Challenger.8 5.78 156 Interest/Tax/D&A A$m 63 63 53 59 58 53 Nueva Esperanza 17.1.27 148 Working Capital/other A$m 346 7 32 9 (1) () Bowdens.. Net Operating Cashflow A$m 85 37 7 58 62 56 Total 72.3.73 1,694 Capex A$m (134) (41) (35) (4) (35) (33) Investments A$m (9) 1 () Resources Sale of PPE and Other A$m Project Mt g/t koz Free cash flow A$m (57) (3) 34 18 27 23 Chatree 181.3.66 3,84 Dividends Paid A$m (19) Challenger 2.5 7.84 64 Debt A$m 18 (26) (28) (48) (5) (36) Nueva Esperanza 28.9.27 251 Equity Issuance A$m 56 2 Bowdens 88.. Other A$m Total 3.7.49 4,731 Net Financing Cashflow A$m (2) 31 (28) (48) (5) (16) Net change in cash A$m (59) 28 7 (31) (23) 7 EV/Reserve (A$/oz) 132 EV/Resource (A$/oz) 47 EQUITY DCF VALUATION Macquarie forecasts Spot prices Projects A$m A$ps A$m A$ps BALANCE SHEET FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e Chatree 145.65 17.48 Cash A$m 33 59 68 37 15 22 Challenger (2) (.1) 14.6 PP&E & Mine Development A$m 19 165 165 142 121 13 Nueva Esperanza 21.9 23.1 Exploration A$m 363 257 267 267 267 267 Bowdens 3.1 3.1 Total Assets A$m 77 643 653 593 546 54 Undeveloped Resources 45.2 49.22 Debt A$m 2 154 148 1 51 15 Unpaid capital & Investments.. Total Liabilities A$m 296 23 28 158 16 77 Forwards 1.. Total Net Assets / Equity A$m 474 413 445 435 44 463 Corporate (73) (.32) (73) (.32) Net Debt / (Cash) A$m 167 95 81 63 36 (7) Net cash (debt) (73) (.32) (83) (.37) Gearing (net debt/(nd + equity)) % 26% 19% 15% 13% 8% (2%) Net Equity Value (@ 12% WACC) 67.3 41.18 Gearing (net debt/equity) % 35% 23% 18% 14% 8% (2%) Price Target (1.x NPV).3 Source: KCN, IRESS, Macquarie Research, July 215 31 July 215 3
Fundamentals Macquarie Wealth Management Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a strong negative view on Kingsgate Consolidated. The strongest style exposure is Earnings Momentum, indicating this stock has received earnings upgrades and is well liked by sell side analysts. The weakest style exposure is Quality, indicating this stock is likely to have a weaker and less stable underlying earnings stream. 973/163 Global rank in Materials % of BUY recommendations 5% (1/2) Number of Price Target downgrades 1 Number of Price Target upgrades 1 Attractive Quant Local market rank Global sector rank Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. Two rankings: Local market (Australia & NZ) and Global sector (Materials) Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score. -.4 -.7-1.6-1.3 -.8-3. -2. -1.. 1. 2. 3. -1% -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. -.8..2 -.3.4-3. -2. -1.. 1. 2. 3. -1% -5% % 5% 1% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. 3m Earnings Revisions EBITDA Revisions 3 Month CPS Revisions 3 Month DPS Revisions 3 Month Momentum 3 Month SAL Growth 5yr Historic CFROI Operating Leverage NTM Negatives Positives -43% -18% -2% -21% 27% 27% 26% 25% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market. Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score -1.6 -.26 -.56 -.61.17 -.86-1.4-1.64-2.4-1.34 -.3 Percentile relative to sector(/163) Percentile relative to market(/414) 5 1 5 1 1 1 Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 31 July 215 4
Macquarie Wealth Management Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+1% Neutral expected return from -1% to +1% Underperform expected return <-1% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform expected return >+1% Neutral expected return from -1% to +1% Underperform expected return <-1% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down 6 1% in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 4 6% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 3 4% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 3% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 3 June 215 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 46.23% 58.36% 47.27% 44.2% 6.65% 43.1% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 9.68% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 37.67% 25.65% 29.9% 49.29% 34.19% 4.93% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 5.53% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 16.1% 15.99% 23.64% 6.52% 5.16% 16.6% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 1.38% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) KCN AU vs Small Ordinaries, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, July 215 12-month target price methodology KCN AU: A$.3 based on a NPV methodology Company-specific disclosures: KCN AU: Macquarie Capital (Singapore) Pte. Limited or one of its affiliates is currently managing or co-managing a proposed public offering of securities of Akara Resources Public Company Limited, a subsidiary of Ltd. Macquarie and its affiliates collectively and beneficially own or control 1% or more of any class of Limited's equity securities. MACQUARIE CAPITAL (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED or one of its affiliates has provided Ltd with investment advisory services in the past 24 months, for which it received compensation. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures. Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 25-Jul-215 KCN AU Underperform A$.2 1-Jul-215 KCN AU Underperform A$.6 2-Mar-215 KCN AU Underperform A$.5 2-Feb-215 KCN AU Underperform A$.55 17-Oct-214 KCN AU Underperform A$.5 29-Aug-214 KCN AU Underperform A$.75 16-Jan-214 KCN AU Underperform A$.95 26-Sep-213 KCN AU Underperform A$1.33 29-Aug-213 KCN AU Underperform A$.95 23-Jul-213 KCN AU Underperform A$1.52 29-Apr-213 KCN AU Neutral A$2.76 25-Apr-213 KCN AU Neutral A$3.43 6-Mar-213 KCN AU Neutral A$4.47 25-Feb-213 KCN AU Neutral A$5.14 29-Jan-213 KCN AU Neutral A$5.43 11-Jan-213 KCN AU Neutral A$5.62 31-Oct-212 KCN AU Neutral A$5.9 31 July 215 5
Macquarie Wealth Management Target price risk disclosures: KCN AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: The views expressed in this research reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd (ABN 94 122 169 279, AFSL No. 31862) ( MGL ) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group ) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited (ABN 58 2 832 126, AFSL No. 238947) a Participant of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Equities Limited (ABN 41 2 574 923, AFSL No. 23754) ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN 46 8 583 542, AFSL No. 23752) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989. Any MGL subsidiary noted in this research, apart from MBL, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. 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The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures. 31 July 215 6