Commodities & Currencies Weekly Tracker
Commodities Weekly Tracker Returns Non Agri Commodities Currencies Agri Commodities Contents Non-Agri Commodities Gold Silver Copper Crude Oil Currencies DX, Euro, INR
Commodities Weekly Tracker Global Equities Performance (%) 3.0 1.0 2.7 2.6 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 (1.0) (3.0) (5.0) (0.3) (0.8) (1.3) (7.0) (6.5) Source: Reuters
Commodities Weekly Tracker 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.2 Currencies Weekly Performance (%) 0.3 (1.0) (2.0) (3.0) (4.0) (1.1) (1.3) (1.6) (2.1) (2.4) (3.4) Source: Reuters
Commodities Weekly Tracker Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance (%) 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.0 (3.0) (0.0) (0.8) (1.8) (2.7) (6.0) (9.0) (8.8) (12.0) (11.9) Source: Reuters
35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 1,650 1,550 1,450 1,350 1,250 1,150 MCX- Near Month Gold Futures - Rs/10 gms Spot Gold -$/oz US Dollar Index Comex Gold Futures - $/oz 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 Commodities Weekly Tracker Gold Weekly Price Performance Last week, spot gold prices declined by 0.81 percent to close at $1065.81 per ounce Prices touched near 2010 low as the dollar surged after the Federal Reserve increased U.S. interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade and hinted at more increases in 2016. The U.S. central bank raised the range of its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point as expected. The dollar rallied to a two-week high against a basket of currencies on the view that the central bank's move would make U.S. assets more attractive. SPDR gold holdings are at their lowest since September 2008 while physical demand from the world's biggest consumer India was also lacking exerting downside pressure on the yellow metal. On the MCX, gold prices declined by 2.32 percent to close at Rs.25082 per 10 gms. MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance Spot Gold Vs Dollar Index SPDR Gold Holdings Last week, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust rose by 14.28 tonnes to 648.91 tonnes On a year-to-date basis, holdings have declined by 60.11 tonnes, or around 7.53 percent.
Commodities Weekly Tracker Gold CFTC holdings: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report in the week to Dec 15 th showed that investors have raised their net shorts by 7792 contracts to 21881 contracts Country s first gold exchange gets a kick start A leading bullion association in India is offering free membership to jewellers across cities and small towns ahead of a planned launch of the country's first physical gold exchange, a move aimed at standardising prices and improving transparency. The jewellery industry in the world's second largest consumer continues to be dominated by small, family-owned outlets that are not part of any formal grouping, making it difficult for the government to implement regulatory changes and keeping the market opaque. Outlook Growth and optimism in the US economy, probability of further rate hike in 2016 although at a gradual pace, low investment and physical demand are all factors exerting downside pressure on gold prices. Besides, money managers are raising their net shorts in the past few weeks which can exert further pressure on the yellow metal The next few US federal reserve meetings will be a significant factors in how the interest rate will increase which will decide the course of the gold prices in the near term. Spot gold prices in the international markets can possibly trade lower for the week towards $1050 In the Indian markets, gold prices can trade lower towards Rs.24600 mark Weekly Technical Levels Trend Down Spot Gold : Support $1050/$1032 Resistance $1070/$1088(CMP: $1068.66) MCX Gold: Sell MCX Gold February between 25200 25300, SL- 25600, Target 24700/24600. (CMP: Rs.25082)
58,500 53,500 48,500 43,500 38,500 33,500 MCX- Near Month Silver Futures - Rs/ kg Comex Silver Futures - $/oz 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 Commodities Weekly Tracker Silver Weekly Price Performance Last week, spot silver prices rose by around 1.15 percent to close at $14.07 per ounce. Silver prices rose in contrary to the decline in gold prices and strong dollar which rose by 1.21 percent. On the MCX, silver prices rose declined by 0.15 percent to close at Rs.33933 per kg. MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance CFTC Holdings The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report in the week to Dec 15 th reported that net longs in silver declined by 6306 contracts to 1635 contracts. Outlook Money managers are dumping the commodity in the recent weeks acting as a bearish factor for silver prices Weak gold prices, stronger dollar will further exert downside pressure We expect silver prices to head lower for the week towards $13.80/oz In the Indian markets, silver prices is expected to trade lower towards Rs.33400 mark 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index 110.0 100.0 90.0 25.0 Weekly Technical Levels Trend Neutral 20.0 80.0 Spot Silver: Support $13.80/$13.40 Resistance $14.40/$14.70.(CMP: $14.12) 15.0 70.0 MCX Silver: Support Rs.33400/32800, Resistance Rs.34300/35000 (CMP: Rs.33933) Spot Silver -$/oz US Dollar Index
6,00,000 5,00,000 4,00,000 3,00,000 2,00,000 1,00,000 8,400 7,400 6,400 5,400 4,400 LME Copper Future ($/tonne) Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg) LME Copper Future ($/tonne) 515 485 455 425 395 365 335 8,400 7,400 6,400 5,400 Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday Dec 21,2015 Copper Weekly Price Performance Last week, LME Copper prices fell by 0.4 percent as the yuan continued its negative momentum for ten straight days on expectations of further capital outflow amid an economic slowdown in China and an interest hike in the United States. Besides, rally in US dollar after the Fed raised short-term rates a quarter of a percentage point and signaled that it will raise interest rates gradually in the future. Also, International Copper Study Group (ICSG) showed that world mine production increased by 3.0 percent in the first eight months of this year. Further, supply glut concerns renewed after Rio Tinto and its partners said they have secured $4.4 billion from 20 lenders to expand its Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia. MCX copper prices declined by 1.7 percent last week to close at Rs.313.3 per kg in line with international trends. CFTC Holdings The CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week to Dec 15 th have raised their net shorts by 1417 contracts to 36899 contracts. Outlook We expect Copper prices to trade sideways this week as China s top copper smelters agreed to make deeper cuts in output next year in addition to earlier decision of reducing 2016 production by 350,000 tonnes in November. However, sharp gains will be capped as hedge funds and money managers added to their net short positions in copper contracts in the week to Dec. 15, thereby indicating negative investor interest. Also, strength in the DX post US rate hike will exert pressure. On the MCX, copper prices are expected to trade sideways in line with international trends. Technically Trend Sideways LME Copper: Support $4580/$4520 Resistance: $4730/$4790 (CMP: $4670) MCX Copper: Sell MCX Copper February between 316 317, SL- 321, Target 309/307.(CMP: 313.30) LME and MCX Copper Price Performance 7,00,000 LME Copper v/s LME Inventory
7,700 6,700 5,700 4,700 3,700 2,700 1,700 MCX crude oil (Rs/bbl) NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl) 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 Commodities Weekly Tracker Crude Oil Weekly Price Performance WTI oil prices declined by 2.5 percent last week while Brent declined by 2.77 percent last week. Fresh supply builds at the delivery point for U.S. crude futures added to worries about a global glut. Trading was thin, however, as uncertainty over how much longer oil prices could stay from hitting 11-year lows kept market players sidelined. Market intelligence firm Genscape reported an inventory increase of 1.4 million barrels at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub. Genscape's report on Cushing came a day after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude stockpiles across the United States jumped by 4.8 million barrels last week. Both U.S. and global benchmark Brent crude have been tumbling downward since an OPEC meeting Dec. 4 at which the oil-producing countries removed their production ceiling, exacerbating global crude oversupply On the MCX, oil prices declined by 4.62 percent to close at Rs.2292 per barrel. 470 Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels) 464.5 Oil Inventories 450 456.3 U.S. crude stocks rose last week on strong volumes of imports into the U.S. Gulf Coast, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday, Total crude inventories rose by 4.8 million barrels in the latest week, Gasoline stocks rose by 1.7 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 2.6 million barrels. 430 410 390 382.7 371.7 370 350 360.3 391.3 393.8 364.6 358.26 388 374.54 393.2 390.3 381.6 375.9 357.6 378 375.4 370 364.5 357.4 415.8 404.6
Commodities Weekly Tracker CFTC Holdings The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report in the week to Dec 15 th raised their net long position by 21847 contracts to 68766 contracts up by 46.56 percent week on week OPEC producers bearish on oil in 2016 OPEC producers see little chance of significantly higher oil prices in 2016 as extra Iranian production could add to surplus supplies and the prospect of voluntary output restraint remains remote. OPEC delegates, including those from Gulf OPEC members, say higher oil prices are not around the corner yet, despite further growth in global demand and as a rise in non-opec supply is tempered by prices that have more than halved in 18 months. Outlook Crude oil markets have been bearish for quite some time now as reluctance by the OPEC nations to cut its crude output is acting as a negative factor Rising crude inventories in the US, low refinery output, are all the push factors for oil prices to head lower in the near term. Besides, stronger dollar will also act as a negative factor for oil prices. Slow growth in the Euro- area and China will also act as a negative factor for oil prices. In the international markets, WTI oil prices can possibly go lower towards $33 while MCX oil prices can head lower towards Rs.2300 mark Weekly Technical Levels Trend Down Nymex Crude: Support $33.30/$32.90 Resistance $35.60/$37.00 (CMP: $34.53) MCX Crude: Sell MCX Crude Oil January between 2480 2500, SL 2580, Target 2320 / 2300. (CMP: Rs.2402)
69.0 67.0 65.0 63.0 61.0 59.0 57.0 55.0 53.0 Commodities Weekly Tracker Rupee Weekly Price Performance The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.5 percent in the last week as buying activity gathered momentum and investors felt that markets have by now factored in the increase of US interest rate. Markets believed that state-owned banks actively intervened on behalf of RBI so as to keep the Indian Rupee supportive. Domestic markets i.e. Sensex and Nifty traded on a positive note after credit rating agency Fitch Ratings made a statement that India is better placed than many of its peers post US rate hike. Robust industrial output and WPI data from the nation suggested that the economy is strong enough to withstand any global challenges. Moreover, FM Arun Jaitley has made a fresh bid to end the deadlock on GST bill and reaching out to main opposition Congress. The currency made a weekly high of 66.25 and closed 66.44 on Friday. Foreign Inflows For the month of December 2015, FII outflows in equities totalled at Rs. 4932.47 crores ($737.99 million) as on 18th December, 2015. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. 15690.33 crores ($2875.80 million) as on 18th December, 2015. Outlook From a weekly perspective, Indian Rupee is likely to trade sideways as mixed trend seen in the Asian markets will keep the Indian markets and its currency a bit pressurized. Any major weakness in the Rupee will prompt the RBI to intervene through state-owned banks. Weekly Technical Levels USDINR: Support 66 / 65.50; Resistance 66.80 / 67.20 (CMP: 66.39) $/INR - Spot No economic data release during the week
103.0 99.0 95.0 91.0 87.0 83.0 79.0 Commodities Weekly Tracker Dollar Index Weekly Price Performance The US Dollar Index strengthened by 1.0 percent in the last week as the market discounted the US Federal Reserve s move of raising interest rates by quarter points. This has led to outflows from non-us markets as investors began to put their money into the US Dollar Index. Moreover, the release of robust jobless claims data from the nation added to optimism sparked by the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. Inflation data from the nation came on a flat note. The underlying inflation pressures rose in November, which could give the Federal Reserve more confidence to raise interest rates tomorrow. All the above factors acted as a positive factor for the currency. US Dollar Index made a weekly high of 99.35 and closed at 98.90 on Friday. US economic data Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era; increases borrowing rates by 4 Quarter-Point in 2016 Consumer Price Index for the month of November decreased by 0 percent from 0.2 percent in November. Building Permits for the month of November increased to 1.29M from 1.16M in October. Outlook The Dollar Index is likely to trade positive owing to increasing foreign inflows into the economy after the rate hike move by the US Federal Reserve. Moreover, important economic data releases from the nation will keep the markets a bit volatile. Weekly Technical Levels Dollar Index (DX) : Support 98.10 / 97.50; Resistance 99.50 / 100.50 (CMP: 98.72) US Dollar Index Economic data release during the week Final GDP q/q 22 nd Dec 15 Time: 7:00pm Previous : 2.1 percent; Forecast : 1.9 percent Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 23 rd Dec 15 Time: 7:00pm Previous : 0.5 percent; Forecast : 0.1 percent New Home Sales 23 rd Dec 15 Time: 8:30pm Previous : 495K; Forecast:507K Unemployment Claims 24 th Dec 15 Time: 7:00 pm Previous : 271K; Forecast : 270K
1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 Commodities Weekly Tracker Euro Weekly Price Performance Euro declined by 0.8 percent in the last week owing to strength seen in the US Dollar Index after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by quarter points. Moreover, disappointing release of German Business Climate data acted as a sign that companies are concerned about the risks facing Europe s largest economy. Mario Draghi said aggressive monetary policy in the euro zone could be ramped even higher if inflation rates do not return toward its 2pc goal. Euro zone inflation will reach the European Central Bank's target of nearly 2 percent "without undue delay" after the bank eased its policy further earlier this month. He added there was no limit to which tools the ECB can use, within its mandate, to stimulate inflation. All the above factors added as a negative factor for the shared currency. The currency made a weekly low of 1.0799 and closed at 1.0848 on Friday. Economic data from the Euro Zone German ZEW Economic Sentiment surged to 16.1 from previous month s 10.4. French Flash Manufacturing PMI surged to 51.6 in December from 50.6 in November. German Flash Manufacturing PMI surged to 53.0 in December from 52.9 in November. German Ifo Business Climate declined to 108.7 in December. Outlook Euro is expected to trade sideways this week as lack of important economic data releases and events from the nation will keep the trading volumes light. Currency movement of the US Dollar Index will govern the trend of the shared currency. Weekly Technical Levels EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.0820 / 1.0750; Resistance 1.0930 / 1.0990 (CMP: 1.0869) Euro/$ - Spot No economic Data to be released during the week:
Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday Dec 14, 2015 Thank You! Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 3083 7700 Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com