AUSTRALIA TPM AU Price (at 06:16, 17 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$6.69 Valuation A$ 8.38 - DCF (WACC 7.6%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.0%) 12-month target A$ 7.60 12-month TSR % +15.9 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Telecommunication Services Market cap A$m 5,684 30-day avg turnover A$m 14.5 Number shares on issue m 849.7 Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Jul 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenue m 2,387.8 2,540.9 2,676.9 2,881.0 EBIT m 523.3 563.0 574.3 550.6 Reported profit m 379.6 339.6 344.7 328.2 Adjusted profit m 361.0 383.3 380.4 358.7 Gross cashflow m 543.5 588.2 603.5 601.2 CFPS 64.3 69.3 71.1 70.9 CFPS growth % 41.6 7.8 2.6-0.4 PGCFPS x 10.4 9.7 9.4 9.4 PGCFPS rel x 0.94 1.07 0.98 1.00 EPS adj 42.7 45.2 44.8 42.3 EPS adj growth % 37.7 5.8-0.8-5.7 PER adj x 15.7 14.8 14.9 15.8 PER rel x 0.82 0.94 0.94 1.02 Total DPS 14.5 15.3 15.2 14.4 Total div yield % 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.1 Franking % 100 100 100 100 ROA % 19.3 14.3 13.7 13.0 ROE % 26.0 20.4 18.2 15.5 EV/EBITDA x 9.0 8.5 8.3 8.4 Net debt/equity % 75.2 73.6 61.1 43.6 P/BV x 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.4 TPM AU vs ASX 100, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2017 (all figures in AUD unless noted) 20 March 2017 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Plenty of disruption on the line Event We update our estimates for TPG ahead of its 1H17 earnings release. The main change to our forecasts is the inclusion of Singapore earnings and capex. In addition, we have tempered our NBN estimates by assuming moderately lower margins and market-share outcomes. Impact Incorporating Singapore into our estimates: For Mobiles, we have assumed TPG reaches EBITDA break-even in FY21, with 6.3% subscriber market share. EBITDA losses are estimated to peak at $64m in FY19 following completion of the initial network build and the launch of services. TPG will bring a highly disruptive low-cost operating model, leveraging the NGNBN, established call centre and billing structures, plus third-party and online distribution strategies. In addition to initial network rollout costs of ~S$250m, we have taken a conservative view that TPG will allocate significant further capital for network expansions and additional spectrum in future years. We see TPG s Singapore operations as NPV-positive but unlikely to be valued by the market until TPG can demonstrate solid execution. Australian mobile strategy remains uncertain: TPG has expressed a desire to be a fourth mobile operator in Australia and is expected to bid at the upcoming 700 MHz auction. Given the likely competitive intensity for this spectrum, it is unclear to us as to whether it will be successful. If it is, initial network rollout costs are unclear but could range from $750m to $1.4bn on high-level estimates discussed in this note. TPG could look to alleviate some of these costs by striking access agreements with third parties (and possibly competitors) or partnerships, although the prospects are uncertain. M&A is also a possibility. Mobile networks are typically very thirsty for capital, and medium-term capex demands would remain high. Following the Singapore investment, we estimate that TPG has around $1.0 1.2bn in excess capital out to FY19 that it could deploy to mobiles given existing gearing and future commitments. Uncertainty over this project is a key overhang on the TPG share price given the scale of the investment that would be required. Earnings and target price revision We have downgraded our target price from $10.00 to $7.60, reflecting earnings changes, Singapore, as well as a discount to our DCF to reflect uncertainty over the Australian mobiles strategy. Our Australian EBITDA for FY17E is unchanged but downgraded by 1.6% and 2.8% for FY18E and FY19E. Against that, we see peak losses for Singapore in FY19E, which, along with higher D&A estimates, are the main drivers of EPS reductions for FY17 19E of -3.0%, -12.9% and -27.2%. Price catalyst 12-month price target: A$7.60 based on a DCF methodology. Catalyst: 1H17 result (21 March). 700MHz spectrum auction (early-april). Action and recommendation We remain cautious on the outlook for TPG given the lack of clarity around its Domestic mobiles strategy, which has material implications for medium-term cash flow and earnings, as well as the broader risk-profile of the company. We retain a Neutral recommendation ahead of the 1H17 result (on Tuesday), with a revised TP of $7.60. Please refer to page 10 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
Analysis We have updated our TPG model, with a number of key changes: Inclusion of estimates for the Singapore business (both mobile and fixed). On our estimates, start-up operating losses peak at S$64m in FY19; Updated estimates for Broadband, including: o Long-term (2022) market share reduced by 1ppt from 27.0% to 26.0%; o Aggregate long-term EBITDA per broadband SIO reduced from $15.78 per month to $14.67 per month (including FTTB contribution); Minor changes to Corporate segment assumptions; Modelling FTTB Co as a separate reporting segment, although inter-company eliminations mean that segment profitability is largely attributable to Consumer; The net impact of these changes is reductions in EPS of 3.0%, 12.9% and 27.2% for FY17 19E. This is primarily due to start-up losses in Singapore as well as upward revisions to D&A estimates. Excluding Singapore, EBITDA changes for the Australian business are unchanged for FY17E and then -1.6% and -2.8% for FY18E and FY19E, respectively. We have made a material reduction to our target price, reflecting lower long-term earnings but also reflecting a 15% discount to valuation due to uncertainty over TPG's Australian Mobiles strategy. We will review this discount as the strategy becomes clearer. With respect to the upcoming 1H17 result, we think the near-term looks robust for TPG, with NBN margin headwinds to be offset by iinet synergies, growth in Corporate and also upside from FTTB. We see 1H17 Domestic EBITDA of $414m (up 12%) and Domestic FY17 EBITDA of $835m. The latter is modestly above the guidance range of $820 830m due to progress on FTTB and synergy realisation. Fig 1 TPG P&L Summary FY14 FY15 FY16 1H17 2H17E FY17E Broadband 478 544 1,514 805 819 1,624 % ch pcp 19% 14% 178% 11% 4% 7% Mobile (AU) 79 79 119 64 65 129 % ch pcp 15% -% 50% 6% 12% 9% Consumer 558 624 1,633 869 885 1,754 % ch pcp 18% 12% 162% 11% 4% 7% Corporate 406 643 655 345 350 695 % ch pcp 66% 58% 2% 6% 6% 6% Other 6 5 101 42 50 93 % ch pcp (34%) (19%) 2089% (4%) (11%) (8%) Australia 969 1,271 2,388 1,256 1,285 2,541 % ch pcp 34% 31% 88% 9% 4% 6% Singapore - - - - - - % ch pcp Total revenue 969 1,271 2,388 1,256 1,285 2,541 % ch pcp 34% 31% 88% 9% 4% 6% Broadband 184 223 465 257 260 516 % ch pcp 21% 21% 109% 17% 6% 11% Mobile (AU) 17 16 15 7 7 14 % ch pcp 6% (5%) (7%) 4% (9%) (3%) Consumer 201 238 480 264 267 531 % ch pcp 19% 19% 101% 17% 5% 11% Corporate 160 242 269 142 146 288 % ch pcp 45% 51% 11% 8% 6% 7% Other 4 4 26 8 8 16 % ch pcp 19% (3%) 574% (25%) (49%) (39%) Australia 365 485 775 414 421 835 % ch pcp 29% 33% 60% 12% 4% 8% Singapore - - - (3) (7) (9) % ch pcp Total EBITDA 365 485 775 411 414 825 % ch pcp 29% 33% 60% 11% 2% 6% Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2017 20 March 2017 2
Singapore Mobiles TPG will become the fourth mobile network operator in Singapore after successfully bidding S$105m for 60 MHz of spectrum in the New Entrant Spectrum Auction in December. The spectrum is in two bands two lots of 900MHz spectrum (paired) and 40 MHz of 2.3GHz spectrum. Spectrum acquired via the NESA auction will become available in April 2017, and the new entrant will be required to have a nationwide network by September-2018 at a determined Quality of Service. Further build-out requirements (such as MTR coverage) are required by 2021. TPG looking at an efficient network rollout, although further investment in network will be required TPG has flagged initial network rollout costs of S$200 300m. The company will leverage NGNBN fibre backbone for the build and no doubt will move quickly to secure appropriate site access for radio equipment. Access to quality sites is often an issue for new mobile builds, and navigating planning requirements and approvals will be a key challenge here. Overall, we have allowed S$250m to build a national network by FY19 (consistent with guidance), with an additional $250m p.a. to build out the network in subsequent years. We have modelled long-term maintenance capex of $80m p.a. from FY22. This may prove conservative given that networks have historically been capital-thirsty and operators are pressured to keep up with demand and technological advances. Scope for additional spectrum purchases next year We expect that TPG will bid for additional spectrum at an open auction in competition with incumbent players early this year. Spectrum available from that auction includes nine lots of 700MHz spectrum and 45MHz of 2.5GHz spectrum. There is also 900MHz spectrum available, although a First Right of Refusal for incumbents already using it might make winning additional spectrum in this band difficult. In addition, there remains some uncertainty over the availability of the 700MHz spectrum, as it requires Malaysia and Indonesia to clear analogue TV services from these bands to prevent interference. It is currently hoped that this will be done by early-2018. All up, we would expect TPG to pursue spectrum holdings in excess of 100MHz over the medium term. With those factors in mind, we allow as a base case an additional $100m for spectrum payments at the open auctions. Fig 2 Singapore: Existing spectrum holding by incumbent operators 900 MHz 1.8 GHz 2.1 GHz 2.6GHz Total (MHz) SingTel 2x15 2x30 2x20 2x10 150 StarHub 2x5 2x25 2x20 2x10 120 M1 2x10 2x20 2x20 2x10 120 Source: Macquarie Research, December 2016 EBITDA breakeven at 5 6% market share Management flagged the business will be EBITDA breakeven on a market share of 5 6%. Given TPG is likely to enter with a materially lower ARPU than competitors, this would imply opex costs at breakeven somewhere in the vicinity of $150m. Management has noted previously it is well placed to leverage existing investments in billing and customer service platforms to contain its cost base. Mobile services will be offered from 2018, and TPG will likely look to also offer fixed-line services leveraging the NGNBN in the Singapore market for both Consumer and Corporate customers. We have assumed that TPG can capture a ~9.3% subscriber share/6.0% revenue share of the ~S$4.3bn Singapore mobile market by FY22, generating margins of ~27% at that stage. 20 March 2017 3
Fig 3 TPG Mobiles: Macq earnings estimates Summary table FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E TPG subscriber share 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 3.6% 6.3% 9.3% # of subscribers 0 0 109 312 553 825 TPG revenue share 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 2.3% 4.0% 6.0% ARPU 0.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.75 26.52 Revenues 0 0 33 94 171 263 % ch vs pcp 186.9% 82.2% 53.8% Opex 10 25 97 139 164 193 % ch vs pcp 150.0% 286.1% 43.7% 18.3% 17.3% EBITDA -10-25 -64-45 7 70 % ch vs pcp 150.0% 155.4% -29.5% -114.8% 953.6% Source: Macquarie Research, March 2017 TPG will also offer fixed-line services in Singapore, although we expect the financial implications will be small in the context of its Mobiles investment. Long-term view of return generation Generating an appropriate ROIC will require further growth (beyond a 5 6% share outcome to reach EBITDA break-even) given the requirement for a return on the S$300 400m up-front capex (including spectrum) as well as allowing for additional spectrum purchases, network maintenance, and increasing capacity requirements over time. TPG is optimistic, commenting that its expansion will bring tremendous value to Singaporean consumers whilst generating excellent long-term returns for TPG shareholders. Fig 4 TPG needs ~12.5% market share longer term to validate investment Target ROIC post-tax 10% Target ROIC pre-tax 12% Invested capital Initial spectrum 105 Initial rollout 275 Additional spectrum 100 Additional rollout 200 Start-up operating losses 50 Total invested capital 730 EBIT to generate ROIC 88 D&A estimate 50 EBITDA requirement 138 Break-even opex 150 Incremental opex 46 Total opex 196 Incremental margin 75% Break-even revenue 150 Incremental revenue 184 Revenue requirement 334 Singapore market size 4000 Implied revenue market share 8.3% Implied subscriber market share 12.5% Source: Macquarie Research, December 2016 20 March 2017 4
Plenty of balance sheet capacity for Singapore but Australian mobiles could follow TPG has flagged it will fund the rollout from existing balance sheet capacity and cash flow from Australian operations. Spectrum costs were due in 1H17 (January), and the initial network capex will mostly come over the next 18 months. TPG s pro forma gearing was ~1.8x ND/EBITDA at 31 July 2016, and core business cashflow remains strong, giving it plenty of headroom to fund this rollout (covenants sit at 3x). Separate to this, TPG continues to show interest in establishing itself as a fourth mobile operator in Australia, which would require extensive capital and could prove a more challenging (and long-term) task to execute. Australian Mobiles TPG has expressed interest in participating in the upcoming 700 MHz spectrum auctions and becoming a fourth mobile network operator in Australia. Rationale: Long term, the rationale is to be one of four players in a large and growing telco segment that currently generates $7bn+ in EBITDA. This opportunity far out-scales the fixed broadband opportunity for which we believe many more participants will fight for a share of a notably smaller EBITDA pool of ~$1.2 1.5bn (for access-seekers). It will allow TPG to more directly leverage its fibre network beyond fixed line and as we head into a 5G world. Rollout cost: This depends entirely upon the strategy TPG looks to pursue. A greenfield rollout (but using existing fibre assets) allowing $300 400k per site and assuming 2,500 3,500 sites would equate to capex of $750m to $1.4bn. This is a wide range, and we note the high level of uncertainty that currently exists with regards to TPG s strategy here. Based on other network rollouts, ~2,500 sites could get a thin level of capital city coverage and a few other key markets (65 70% population coverage). This would then be a limited network reach for consumers in many areas, and TPG would have to consider pricing accordingly. Whatever the initial rollout cost, mobile networks are constantly thirsty for investment, and we note both Telstra and Optus will spend over $1bn on their established mobile networks this year. In terms of estimating the required site numbers for a network rollout, we have looked at disclosures from a number of operators that have launched services in Australia. We note, that 700MHz spectrum is waterfront property with respect to propagation characteristics (distance and in-building), which will improve the efficiency of any rollout by TPG. (The volume of sites TPG ultimately needs might correlate more closely to the required depth/capacity for the network as opposed to simply just population coverage objectives). Optus 4G network rollout: Optus progressively rolled out its 4G network using 1.8GHz spectrum initially and 700MHz spectrum more recently. It has provided coverage updates as part of SingTel Group market releases, correlating sites and coverage. On this basis, Optus managed to get to ~78% 4G population coverage using ~2,000 sites with 1.8GHz spectrum, although in-building coverage was only 58%. It then built the network out with 700MHz spectrum to achieve 90% population coverage with 3,800 sites. Fig 5 Optus 4G network rollout Sites 6000 5000 4000 50% 3000 35% 2000 1000 0 75% 55% 58% 78% 80% 83% 86% 90% 91% 92% 94% 95% 96% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4G sites 700 MHz 1800 MHz Coverage In-building coverage Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2017 20 March 2017 5
In 2001, '3' secured 2.1GHz spectrum and began rolling out a 3G network. In 2004 it put this network into a JV with Telstra. According to ACCC documents, the 3GIS network JV represented 57% population coverage premised on 2,700 base stations in 2009. This network coverage predominantly relates to capital city coverage and some larger regional centres. Spectrum: Capacity might still be limited if TPG's network was primarily based on either 2x10 or 2x15MHz of 700MHz spectrum. The reserve price of this spectrum is effectively $285.9m per 2x5MHz block, based on ACMA releases. There is a good probability that spectrum will be priced above the reserve given Optus and Vodafone have an added incentive in this auction of keeping TPG out. Telstra cannot bid due to spectrum limits in place. The auction is expected to commence on 4 April. The winner of the auction has the option of paying upfront, or on a delayed payment schedule as illustrated in Fig 6. Fig 6 Payment schedule for acquisition of 2x10 MHz block at the reserve price Delayed payments Date Instalment Base payment (assumes reserve price) ($m) Multiplier Payment due ($m) Adjusted for Payment 5% deposit schedule ($m) 31 January 2018 48% 274.5 1.00 274.5 28.6 303.1 31 January 2019 27% 152.3 1.05 159.9 0.0 159.9 31 January 2020 25% 145.0 1.1025 159.9-28.6 131.3 Total 100% 571.8 594.3 0.0 594.3 Source: Macquarie Research, March 2017 Rollout timeline: Given the finite life of the spectrum, whoever secures the 700MHz spectrum would have an incentive to roll out as quickly as possible, with the spectrum to be available from early-2018. Planning and approvals can make this a tedious process for a new operator, and an 18-month time horizon to deploy a network might be a best-case scenario. We see TPG as having $1.0 1.2bn in capital available for such a rollout through to FY19 given its existing balance sheet position. Is there another way?: TPG could look to partnerships to reduce rollout costs. There are some sites it could access from third parties, and it might look to deal with incumbent operators, although they would clearly be cautious in facilitating the rollout of a new entrant. A broader deal with Vodafone has been widely speculated and makes sense in many ways from a strategic perspective particularly as networks migrate to 5G (refer also Global Telecom and Tech 5G: The Great Network Revolution, 8 March 2017). Domestic Consumer As discussed, we have adjusted our Consumer numbers to reflect the evolving NBN competitive environment. These include slightly more conservative assumptions around TPG's share and margin outcomes, although not materially different outcomes for earnings longer term in the broader context of the TPG business. We note the following of recent competition: TPG has modestly underperformed our expectations on NBN market share during the early stages of the rollout, even allowing for the regional bias. While this may improve as the rollout pivots toward metro areas (where its brand is stronger and marketing is focussed), we balance that against the impact of new entrants. Overall, we model a long-term share of 26%. Pricing has been relatively stable in the market. We note amaysim will enter the market with pricing broadly consistent with that of TPG, and TPG remains the price leader of the incumbents. While we take comfort in stable pricing dynamics, there are the risks to margins over them short and long term. o Migration costs could rise. For Vocus and Telstra these are in the range of $125 200 per customer. This could equate to a significant one-off cost for the TPG base over the next four to five years as the NBN migration rollout completes. 20 March 2017 6
o o CVC charges, which are slated to increase over time although have been fairly stable in recent quarters. The shift to dimension-based pricing is a positive for TPG, in our view, given its customer base. Marketing activity. While pricing may be stable, there is still scope for a step-up in promotional activity (free months, credits, etc) that can impact industry economics during the NBN land-grab. Overall, we are comfortable with our long-term estimate that would see TPG generate around $14.67 of EBITDA per SIO. This includes SME and FTTB customers, with the profitability of NBN customers modestly below this level. FTTB We have now modelled FTTB as a separate segment, given the functional separation TPG has put in place, although we reallocate the EBITDA from TPG Retail subscribers back to the Consumer segment. Profits from wholesale customers are attributed to the Corporate segment. We assume an average wholesale ARPU of ~$40 for access and aggregation, prefaced on a bias toward 100Mbps customers. There are few direct costs for providing these, but we do assume a levy on these lines (initially $7.09/line) to fund the regional wireless NBN rollout. Overall, we see FTTB Co generating EBITDA of $45m in FY22, which is a critical offset to the loss of earnings to NBN. Cost eliminations within the Group means that the majority of this contribution will be recognised in the Consumer segment. FY17 earnings expectations We see TPG s Australian operations generating $435m in EBITDA, slightly ahead of guidance of $820 830m due to uptake of FTTB and synergy realisation. For the first half, we see Domestic EBITDA of $414m, up 12%, including a full-period contribution from iinet. Fig 7 TPG P&L Summary 1H17 2H17E FY17E Broadband 805 819 1,624 % ch pcp 11% 4% 7% Mobile (AU) 64 65 129 % ch pcp 6% 12% 9% Consumer 869 885 1,754 % ch pcp 11% 4% 7% Corporate 345 350 695 % ch pcp 6% 6% 6% Other 42 50 93 % ch pcp (4%) (11%) (8%) Australia 1,256 1,285 2,541 % ch pcp 9% 4% 6% Singapore - - - % ch pcp Total revenue 1,256 1,285 2,541 % ch pcp 9% 4% 6% Broadband 257 260 516 % ch pcp 17% 6% 11% Mobile (AU) 7 7 14 % ch pcp 4% (9%) (3%) Consumer 264 267 531 % ch pcp 17% 5% 11% Corporate 142 146 288 % ch pcp 8% 6% 7% Other 8 8 16 % ch pcp (25%) (49%) (39%) Australia 414 421 835 % ch pcp 12% 4% 8% Singapore (3) (7) (9) % ch pcp Total EBITDA 411 414 825 % ch pcp 11% 2% 6% Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2017 20 March 2017 7
(TPM) $6.69 Interim 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17e Full year FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Revenue $m 1,153.0 1,234.8 1,256.2 1,284.7 Revenue $m 2,387.8 2,540.9 2,676.9 2,881.0 Opex $m 784.2 828.3 845.2 870.4 Opex $m 1,612.5 1,715.6 1,833.4 2,049.4 EBITDA $m 368.8 406.5 411.0 414.3 EBITDA $m 775.3 825.3 843.4 831.6 Depreciation $m 67.1 69.8 77.7 83.1 Depreciation $m 136.9 160.8 179.1 196.0 Amortisation (ex PPA amort) $m 20.3 20.3 19.6 19.6 Amortisation (ex PPA amort) $m 40.6 39.1 39.1 41.5 D&A $m 87.4 90.1 97.3 102.6 D&A $m 177.5 199.9 218.2 237.5 EBIT $m 281.4 316.4 313.7 311.7 EBIT $m 597.8 625.4 625.3 594.1 Associates $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Associates $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT incl. assoc $m 281.4 316.4 313.7 311.7 EBIT incl. assoc $m 597.8 625.4 625.3 594.1 Net Interest Expense $m 46.9 36.4 37.8 39.0 Net Interest Expense $m 83.3 76.8 78.2 67.0 Pre-Tax Profit $m 234.5 280.0 276.0 272.6 Pre-Tax Profit $m 514.5 548.6 547.0 527.2 Tax Expense $m 70.9 77.6 80.4 79.9 Tax Expense $m 148.5 160.3 161.6 163.5 Net Profit $m 163.6 202.4 195.6 192.7 Net Profit $m 366.0 388.3 385.4 363.7 Minority Interests $m 1.3 3.7 1.3 3.7 Minority Interests $m 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Adjusted Earnings $m 162.3 198.7 194.3 189.0 Adjusted Earnings $m 361.0 383.3 380.4 358.7 PPA amortisation (net of tax) $m 26.6 25.6 21.84 21.84 PPA amortisation (net of tax) $m 52.2 43.7 35.7 30.5 NRIs (net of tax) $m 66.8 3.9 0.00 0.01 NRIs (net of tax) $m 70.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Reported Earnings $m 202.5 177.1 172.4 167.2 Reported Earnings $m 379.6 339.6 344.7 328.2 EPS (reported) cps 24.1 20.9 20.3 19.7 EPS (reported) cps 44.9 40.0 40.6 38.7 EPS (adj) cps 19.3 23.4 22.9 22.3 EPS (adj) cps 42.7 45.2 44.8 42.3 EPS (adj) grow th) % 28.4% 46.4% 18.7% (4.9%) EPS (adj) grow th) % 37.7% 5.8% (0.8%) (5.7%) PER (reported) x 13.9 16.0 16.5 17.0 PER (reported) x 14.9 16.7 16.5 17.3 PER (adj) x 17.3 14.3 14.6 15.0 PER (adj) x 15.7 14.8 14.9 15.8 DPS cps 7.0 7.5 8.3 7.0 DPS cps 14.5 15.3 15.2 14.4 Dividend yield % 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% Dividend yield % 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% Payout ratio (adj) % 36.3% 32.0% 36.3% 35.7% Payout ratio (adj) % 34.0% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0% FCF/sh cps 12.3 19.9 7.5-6.4 FCF/sh cps 32.3 1.0 29.0 49.5 FCFE yield (annualised) % 3.7% 6.0% 2.2% (1.9%) FCFE yield (annualised) % 4.8% 0.2% 4.3% 7.4% EBITDA margin % 32.0% 32.9% 32.7% 32.2% EBITDA margin % 32.5% 32.5% 31.5% 28.9% EBIT margin % 24.4% 25.6% 25.0% 24.3% EBIT margin % 25.0% 24.6% 23.4% 20.6% EBITDA grow th % 56.1% 63.7% 11.4% 1.9% EBITDA grow th % 60.0% 6.4% 2.2% (1.4%) EBIT grow th % 57.3% 65.3% 11.5% (1.5%) EBIT grow th % 61.4% 4.6% (0.0%) (5.0%) Key assumptions 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17e Key assumptions FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Total broadband subscribers 000s 1,842 1,868 1,907 1,946 Total broadband subscribers 000s 1,868 1,946 2,095 2,196 Implied broadband market share % 25.6% 25.1% 25.3% 25.5% Implied broadband market share % 25.1% 25.5% 25.9% 25.8% ARPU: On-Net Standalone (LSS) $ 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 ARPU: On-Net Standalone (LSS) $ 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 ARPU: On-Net Bundled (ULL) $ 59.6 59.6 59.6 59.6 ARPU: On-Net Bundled (ULL) $ 59.6 59.6 59.6 59.6 Profit and Loss Ratios FY16 FY17e Cashflow Analysis FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Revenue grow th % 87.9% 6.4% EBITDA $m 775.3 825.3 843.4 831.6 EBITDA grow th % 60.0% 6.4% Ch in Working Capital $m 0.5 12.3 21.6 31.1 % of EBITDA in 1H % 47.6% 49.8% Net Interest Paid $m 66.5 76.8 78.2 67.0 Effective Tax Rate % 33.8% 33.0% Tax Paid $m 138.8 141.6 146.3 150.4 EV/EBIT x 13.4 12.7 Other $m (16.6) 3.1 3.1 2.9 EV/EBITDA x 9.0 8.7 Operating Cashflow $m 553.9 622.4 643.6 648.3 EV/Sales x 2.9 2.8 Acquisitions $m 1,154.3 - - - Capex $m 281.0 613.7 397.9 228.6 Balance Sheet Ratios FY16 FY17e Asset Sales $m 60.0 - - - Other $m (113.3) - - - ROE % 27.6% 18.3% Investing Cashflow $m (1,488.6) (613.7) (397.9) (228.6) ROFE % 16.8% 16.3% Dividends Paid $m 108.4 134.2 131.0 124.4 ROA % 13.4% 13.5% Equity movements $m 326.9 - - - Net Debt $m 1,338.3 1,463.4 Debt movements $m 808.8 125.5 (114.7) (295.3) Net Debt/Equity x 75.2 73.6 Other $m (76.8) - - - Net Debt/EBITDA x 1.7 1.8 Financing Cashflow $m 950.5 (8.7) (245.7) (419.7) Interest Cover (EBIT) x 7.2 7.3 EFPOWA m 845.1 848.5 Net Cashflow $m 15.8 - - - Balance Sheet FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Broadband $m 465.0 516.4 Cash $m 39.2 39.2 39.2 39.2 Mobile (AU) $m 14.7 14.2 Receivables $m 145.2 151.1 160.2 172.9 Total Consumer $m 479.7 530.7 Inventories $m 12.0 12.5 13.2 14.3 Corporate $m 269.3 288.1 Investments $m 155.4 152.3 169.2 166.3 FTTB Co $m #REF! #REF! PP&E $m 895.1 1,347.7 1,566.5 1,599.1 Other $m 26.3 16.0 Intangibles $m 2,485.2 2,383.7 2,273.6 2,188.6 Total Australia $m 775.3 834.8 Other Assets $m 38.9 39.8 41.3 43.3 Singapore $m - (9.5) Total Assets $m 3,771.0 4,126.2 4,263.2 4,223.6 Total Group EBITDA $m 775.3 825.3 Payables $m 298.0 310.0 328.8 354.8 Short Term Debt $m 27.1 - - - Long Term Debt $m 1,350.4 1,502.6 1,387.9 1,092.6 Snapshot Current Provisions $m 52.6 54.7 58.0 62.6 Current price $ $6.69 Other Liabilities $m 263.7 269.2 280.0 296.3 EFPOWA # 845.1 Total Liabilities $m 1,991.8 2,136.5 2,054.8 1,806.4 Market cap $m $5,653 Shareholders Funds $m 1,774.1 1,984.6 2,203.3 2,412.1 Net debt $m $1,338 Minority Interests $m 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 EV $m $6,992 Shaereholder Equity $m 1,779.2 1,989.7 2,208.4 2,417.2 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2017 20 March 2017 8
Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a strong negative view on. The strongest style exposure is Profitability, indicating this stock is efficiently converting investments to earnings; proxied by ratios like ROE or ROA. The weakest style exposure is Price Momentum, indicating this stock has had weak medium to long term returns which often persist into the future. 144/178 Global rank in Telecommunication Services % of BUY recommendations 57% (8/14) Number of Price Target downgrades 3 Number of Price Target upgrades 0 Fundamentals Attractive Quant Local market rank Global sector rank Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. Two rankings: Local market (Australia & NZ) and Global sector (Telecommunication Services) Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score. Telstra Corporation 0.5 Telstra Corporation -1.1-3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. Telstra Corporation -0.6 Telstra Corporation -1.9-3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. Return on Assets NTM Profit Margin FY1 Operating Margin NTM Return on Assets FY1 Asset Turnover SAL Growth 5yr Historic Turnover (USD) 250 Day Turnover (USD) 20 Day Negatives Positives -33% -33% -34% -40% 30% 28% 28% 34% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market. Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score -1.15 0.18-0.11 0.57-0.50-1.37-0.44-0.56-1.18-0.32-0.40 Percentile relative to sector(/178) Percentile relative to market(/422) 0 50 100 0 50 100 0 0 1 1 Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 20 March 2017 9
Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down 60 100% in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 40% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 30% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 31 December 2016 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 57.53% 50.72% 45.57% 42.28% 60.58% 52.79% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.71% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 33.90% 33.97% 43.04% 50.11% 37.23% 35.62% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.05% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 8.56% 15.30% 11.39% 7.61% 2.19% 11.59% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 4.63% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) TPM AU vs ASX 100, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2017 12-month target price methodology TPM AU: A$7.60 based on a DCF methodology Company-specific disclosures: TPM AU: MACQUARIE CAPITAL (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED or one of its affiliates has provided Ltd with investment advisory services in the past 24 months, for which it received compensation. MACQUARIE CAPITAL (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED or one of its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of Ltd in the past 24 months, for which it received compensation. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 21-Sep-2016 TPM AU Neutral A$10.00 19-May-2016 TPM AU Neutral A$11.55 23-Mar-2016 TPM AU Neutral A$11.10 09-Oct-2015 TPM AU Neutral A$10.65 01-Oct-2015 TPM AU Neutral A$10.50 23-Sep-2015 TPM AU Neutral A$10.25 17-Sep-2015 TPM AU Outperform A$10.40 23-Sep-2014 TPM AU Outperform A$7.60 26-Mar-2014 TPM AU Outperform A$7.00 Target price risk disclosures: TPM AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views 20 March 2017 10
This publication was disseminated on 17 March 2017 at 14:48 UTC. Macquarie Wealth Management expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Limited (MGL) total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group s Investment Banking activities. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited ABN 58 002 832 126, AFSL 238947, a Participant of the ASX and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Wealth Management, a division of Macquarie Equities Limited ABN 41 002 574 923 AFSL 237504 ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN 46 008 583 542, AFSL No. 237502) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989. Apart from Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (MBL), any MGL subsidiary noted in this research,, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research contains general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This research has been prepared for the use of the clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return e-mail and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Macquarie Group does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures Macquarie Group 20 March 2017 11