Marketing Communication

Transcription

1 1 October 216 Key points for the week ending 4 October 216 The total aggregated Non-Commercial net position added just 4,992 lots this week, to 261,952 lots net long, as support emerged across US feed grains. This came despite a.8% rally in the USD Index, pressuring a number of softs and livestock markets. CBOT Wheat lost 2.1% WOW, as deepened their net short position to a record -151,417 lots a 2, lot increase WOW with a bearish US grain stocks report and high global feed availability. Contrastingly, MGE Wheat rallied 3.9% WOW amid quality concerns, as Dec 16 quality spreads reached contract highs. CBOT Corn rallied 5% WOW, as bought 13,986 net contracts (8%) to reduce their total net short position to -162,858 contracts. The unwinding was underpinned by US harvest yield reports which, to date, are in line with market expectations. ICE Arabica lost 4.1% WOW, following expected favourable rainfall across key regions of Brazil and the assistance of a 3.1% decline in the COP. cut their gross longs by 2,86 lots WOW, the most in five weeks, to reach a 31,973 lot net short. Marketing Communication Period Price Moves: 27 Sep - 4 Oct -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank CME Lean Hog ICE Arabica KCBT Wheat MDE-Bursa Palm Oil CBOT Wheat ICE Robusta ICE NY Cocoa ICE White Sugar Matif Wheat ICE No. 11 Sugar CBOT Soybean Oil CME Live Cattle ICE Cotton CME Feeder Cattle S&P GS Ag Commodity Index ICE London Cocoa US Dollar Index CBOT Soybeans CBOT Soybean Meal ICE Feed Wheat MGE Wheat CBOT Corn 4/1/ ,952 4,992 3,25, % 4/1/ ,2 3,959 1,559, % 27/9/ ,96-42,113 2,974, % 27/9/ ,61-46,288 1,653, % 4/1/216 1,117,36-2, , % 4/1/ ,559 27, , % 27/9/216 1,119,875-1, ,21 1.5% 27/9/ ,424 5, , % 4/1/216-1,377,37 -,971 2,523, % 4/1/216-1,52,572 44,854 2,25, % 27/9/216-1,336,399 72,34 2,55,88 37.% 27/9/216-1,547,426 63,52 2,291, % 4/1/216 32,8 33,98 635,4 9.2% 4/1/216 39,885-18, 1,677, % 27/9/216-1,18-25, , % 27/9/ ,885 6,152 1,595, % Aggregated OI : 6,921,75 6,894,9 *Aggregated OI : 6,921,75 7,49,161 * aggregated open interest for the disaggregated report includes non-reportables Aggregated Summary of COT Report for Major US Agri Commodities* vs. S&P GS Ag Commodity Index 1, 1, S&P GS Agri Commodity Index (RHS) 2, 1,5 1, 5 vs. S&P GS Ag Commodity Index Index Index 1,5 1, Agri Commodity Markets Research Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory Stefan Vogel stefan.vogel@rabobank.com Carlos Mera carlos.mera@rabobank.com Graydon Chong graydon.chong@rabobank.com Charles Clack charles.clack@rabobank.com Net Length vs. S&P GS Ag Commodity Index 1, 1, 1, Net Length S&P GS Agri Commodity Index (RHS) Net Length vs. S&P GS Ag Commodity Index S&P GS Agri Commodity Index (RHS) Swap Delears Net Length S&P GS Agri Commodity Index (RHS) *: Aggregate figures are made up of agricultural commodities and livestock futures considered in this report. Futures considered include CBOT corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal, KCBT wheat, ICE NY sugar, coffee, cocoa and cotton, CME live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hogs Index Index Page 1 of 17

2 Commitment of Traders Report Summary 1 October 216 Long Short Net Wkly Chg. Long Short Net Wkly Chg. Long Short Net Wkly Chg. CBOT Corn /1/216 1,77,47 227,64 392, ,289 26,221 35,177 33, ,211 4, ,24 613, ,41-5,489 27/9/216 1,77, ,212 4, ,51-24, ,197 3, ,656 6,7 524, ,718-67,552 27,775 2/9/216 1,76, , , ,943-8, ,642 3,686 34, ,34 67,631-95,327-12,315 CBOT Wheat 4/1/ ,57 9, ,28-164,69-2, ,263 16,934 14,329 2,28 148,762 12,7 46,22 14,265 27/9/ ,16 92, ,85-144, ,298 19,249 12,49-2, ,927 17,17 31,757 2,846 2/9/ ,192 88, , ,764-1,3 122,263 17,985 14,278-1,54 135,29 16,298 28,911 3,81 KCBT Wheat 4/1/ ,436 77,654 92,252-14,598 3,971 48,187 3,528 44,659-4,315 66,811 93,62-26,89 1,894 27/9/ ,616 69,97 87,666-18,569 3,9 52,281 3,37 48, ,944 96,647-28,73-5,261 2/9/ ,99 66,274 88,743-22,469 5,971 51,586 3,345 48,241-1,567 71,321 94,763-23,442-4,258 CBOT Soybeans 4/1/ , ,825 78,614 39,211 1,49 144,674 37,55 17, , ,581-96,799-17,984 27/9/ ,89 19,952 81,231 28,721-28,61 144,561 37,22 17, ,75 377,565-78,815 36,51 2/9/ ,71 125,52 68,189 57,331 5, ,549 36,863 16,686-2, ,349 2, ,316-13,381 CBOT Soybean Oil 4/1/ , ,769 27,811 99,958-3,86 11,595 18,28 83, , , ,672 2,81 27/9/ ,4 131,513 27,695 13,818 12,357 95,961 12,838 83, , ,369-22,473-15,25 2/9/ ,62 118,648 27,187 91,461 16,421 9,867 8,7 82, , , ,448-19,628 CBOT Soybean Meal** 4/1/ ,688 79,58 49,48 3,1 3,84 79,58 18,28 61,3-4,36 195,972 2,194-44,222-6,87 27/9/216 42,246 77,94 5,978 26,926-19,862 77,94 12,838 65,66-9,77 25,22 242,554-37,352 27,17 2/9/ ,845 83,576 36,788 46,788-3,2 83,576 8,7 74,836-4, , ,21-64,369-1,455 ICE NY No. 11 Sugar 4/1/216 1,68, ,418 22,291 29, ,365 27, ,183-4, , ,8-529,381 4,498 27/9/216 1,9, ,983 22,998 29,985 4, ,192 25, ,661-4,75 237, ,46-533,879 4,468 2/9/216 1,114,917 39,823 23, ,6 24,69 217,362 26,996 19,366 11, , , ,347-42,545 ICE NY Coffee 4/1/ ,978 54,966 22,993 31,973-5,525,872 2,616 38, ,5 136,57-76,7 5,54 27/9/ ,155 57,772 2,274 37,498-2,453 41,48 2,926 38,122-1,681 6, ,275-81,124 3,116 2/9/ ,337 59,295 19,344 39,951 1,791 41,164 1,361 39, , ,437-84,2-1,885 ICE NY Cocoa 4/1/ ,49 61,83 49,51 12, ,958 2,149 14, , ,821-3, /9/ ,97 59,651 46,39 13,342 4,953 33,426 18,175 15, , ,286-3,868-5,582 2/9/ ,237 55,387 46,998 8,389-2,584 32,934 17,759 15, ,896 13,182-25,286 2,98 ICE NY Cotton Open Interest 4/1/ ,578 91,492 15,286 76,26-6,414 8,8 8,141 72, , , ,113 7,363 27/9/ ,432 97,372 14,752 82,62 7,581 79,797 7,696 72,11-1,417 7, , ,476-5,97 2/9/ ,789 87,651 12,612 75,39 3,961 79,867 6,349 73, , , ,56-6,13 CME Live Cattle 4/1/ ,73 76,5 66,277 1, ,765 4,974 73, , ,815-7,849-2,796 27/9/ ,6 78,973 68,478 1,495 4,677 77,98 3,71 74, , ,667-68,53-1,915 2/9/ ,975 77,9 71,191 5,818 3,869 75,413 1,832 73,581 1,389 56, ,496-66,138-4,86 CME Feeder Cattle 4/1/216 54,61 13,127 15,342-2, ,364 1,674 1, ,424 7,982-2, /9/216 58,191 12,76 15,211-2,451-1,65 11, , ,29 8,734-2, /9/216 55,859 12,354 13,7-1, , , ,847 8,884-3,37-41 CME Lean Hogs 4/1/ ,533 79,339 61,122 18,217-1,386 74,128 4,595 69,533-1,454 25,62 97,246-72,184 1,233 27/9/216 36,69 76,531 56,928 19,63-2,655 75,666 4,679 7,987-1, 26,366 99,783-73,417 3,471 2/9/ ,23 71,569 49,311 22,258-3,728 76,247 4,6 72,187-2,268 27,56 13,944-76,888 5,913 CFTC Commitment of Traders Supplemental Report Summary* ** Index Trader data for Soybean Meal is not supplied by the CFTC *The Supplemental Commitment of Traders Report - Based on the information contained in the report of futures-and-options combined in the short format, the Supplemental report shows an additional category of in selected agricultural markets. These traders are drawn from both the non-commercial and commercial categories of the traditional COT report. In addition, this enables a more accurate segregation of commercial and non-commercial market participants. Non-commercials: Non-commercial participants consist of investors such as hedge funds, registered commodity trading advisors (CTA), financial institutions and individuals who meet the reporting requirements set forth by the CFTC and are not involved in any commercial market activity and are thus considered speculators. Non-commercial positions are generally considered to be actively managed, with investors participating on both the long and short side of the market. : Index traders include financial institutions whose trading predominantly reflects hedging of over-the-counter transactions involving commodity indices as well as managed funds, pension funds and other investors who seek exposure to a broad index of commodity prices as an asset class. Investors in this category traditionally participate on the long side of the market and seek unleveraged returns; for the most part, their positions are passively managed. : This segment consists of traders who predominantly use the futures market to offset their risk/exposure to the cash and physical market and includes producers, processors, merchants and end users. Page 2 of 17

3 Commitment of Traders Report Summary 1 October 216. Long Short Net Wkly Chg. Long Short Net Wkly Chg. Long Short Net Wkly Chg. CBOT Corn /1/216 1,77,47 18, ,51-162,858 13,986 25,871 3, ,917 1, , , ,147-54,997 27/9/216 1,77,593 17,3 347, ,844-15,252 2,947 4, ,84 3, ,1 566,29-111,15 27,98 2/9/216 1,76, , , ,592-14, ,319 4, ,933 1, ,6 583, ,58-13,823 CBOT Wheat 4/1/ ,57 72,75 223, ,417-2, 77,357 6,1 71,217 3, ,494 91,479,15 13,541 27/9/ ,16 74,844 26, ,417-4,152 75,492 7,742 67,75-3,98 123,524 97,5 26,474 3,775 2/9/ ,192 74,957 22, ,265-1,827 78,27 7,359 7, ,52 96,353 22,699 2,999 KCBT Wheat 4/1/ ,436 72,927 73, ,642 35,3 3,16 32,14-2,789 6,325 89,166-28, /9/ ,616 63,82 69,3-5,498 2,9 39,812 5,9 34, ,7 91,194-29,787-5,137 2/9/ ,99 61,729 7,127-8,398 4,961 39,232 5,6 34, ,662 89,312-24,65-4,357 CBOT Soybeans 4/1/ ,633 12,331 37,164 65,167 7,515 93,913 8,972 84,941 2,31 258, , ,126-18,95 27/9/ ,89 96,53 38,851 57,652-32,781 92,381 9,741 82,6 7, ,91 36,267-98,176 29,669 2/9/ ,71 112,363 21,93 9,433 11,444 87,369 12,97 75,272-1, , , ,845-13,695 CBOT Soybean Oil 4/1/ ,671 18,678 15,936 92,742-1,45 72, , , , ,66 4,28 27/9/ ,4 19,826 15,634 94,192 11,951 74,156 1,198 72, , , ,634-13,898 2/9/ ,62 98,85 15,844 82,241 12,13 74,654 1,581 73, ,86 265,542-21,736-19,552 CBOT Soybean Meal 4/1/ ,688 47,45 32,215 14,83 3,13 75, ,485-2,388 12,136 22, ,77-4,482 27/9/216 42,246 45,365 33,665 11,7-19,448 77, ,873 2,12 112, 226, ,225 25,4 2/9/ ,845 52,485 21,337 31,148-3,39 75,98 1,47 74, , , , ICE NY No. 11 Sugar 4/1/216 1,68, ,5 8, , ,53 82,73 58,8-5, , ,26-467,562 5,547 27/9/216 1,9, ,262 1,14 286,248 1,8 141,949 77,457 64,492 1, , , ,19-1,86 2/9/216 1,114, ,726 8, ,448 17,66 145,839 83,59 62,78 13, ,214 75, ,33-46,58 ICE NY Coffee 4/1/ ,978 53,218 14,847 38,371-6,311 38,226 7,136 31,9 1,113 5, ,779-78,638 4,172 27/9/ ,155 56,98 12,298 44,682-2,26 37,472 7,495 29,977-4,395 5, ,42-82,81 5,876 2/9/ ,337 58,691 11,983 46,78 3,91 37,927 3,555 34, , ,164-88,686-1,29 ICE NY Cocoa 4/1/ ,49 55,95 33,547 22,3 2,92 27,757 18,37 9, ,32 134,945-35, /9/ ,97 53,187 32,876 2,311 4,53 27,335 17,732 9, ,15 124,328-35,313-5,441 2/9/ ,237 49,546 33,738 15,88-1,569 27,616 17,875 9,741-1,152 86,74 116,576-29,872 3,8 ICE NY Cotton 4/1/ ,578 75,811 9,792 66,19-5,997 71,992 7,677 64,315 1,418 54, , ,5 6,887 27/9/ ,432 81,568 9,552 72,16 6,226 71,145 8,248 62,897-1,435 53, , ,292-6,189 2/9/ ,789 73,926 8,136 65,79 3,852 72,942 8,61 64, , , ,13-6,71 CME Live Cattle 4/1/ ,73 78,417 45,867 32, ,764 2,83 54, , ,48-76,731-2,414 27/9/ ,6 8,71 47,34 33,37 5,892 56,722 2,33 54, , ,161-74,317-2,435 2/9/ ,975 78,212 51,67 27,145 3,94 56,12 2,31 53,81 1,199 46, ,23-71,882-4,19 CME Feeder Cattle 4/1/216 54,61 9,443 12,915-3, ,38 7 6, ,285 7,9-3, /9/216 58,191 8,498 12,831-4,333-1,111 6, , ,24 8,238-3, /9/216 55,859 8,687 11,99-3, , , ,98 8,491-3, CME Lean Hogs Open Interest 4/1/ ,533 81,222 48,449 32,773 6,458 58,696 2,785 55,911-4,16 16,481 93,556-77,75 1,482 27/9/216 36,69 72,19 45,74 26,315-4,79 62,382 2,311 6,71-1,724 17,56 96,63-78,557 3,78 2/9/ ,23 69,74 37,969 31,15-5,24 63,98 2,113 61, ,846 11,111-82,265 2,774 CFTC Commitment of Traders Disaggregated Report Summary* Producer/Merchant/ Processor/End User *The Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report - The Commission, by regulation, collects confidential daily large-trader data as part of its market surveillance programme. The data, which also supports the traditional weekly COT report, will now be separated into the following four categories: : A money manager, for the purpose of this report, is a registered commodity trading advisor (CTA), a registered commodity pool operator (CPO), or an unregistered fund identified by CFTC. These traders are engaged in managing and conducting organised futures trading on behalf of clients. : A swap dealer is an entity that deals primarily in swaps for a commodity and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge the risk associated with those swap transactions. The swap dealer s counterparties may be speculative traders, like hedge funds, or traditional commercial clients that are managing risk arising from their dealings in the physical commodity. : A producer/merchant/processor/end user is an entity that predominantly engages in the production, processing, packing or handling of a physical commodity and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge risks associated with those activities. : Every other reportable trader that is not placed into one of the other three categories is placed into the other reportables category. Page 3 of 17

4 Commitment of Traders Report Summary 1 October 216 CBOT Corn 4/1/ ,289 26, , % 4/1/ ,858 13, , % 27/9/ ,51-24, , % 27/9/ ,844-15, , % 4/1/ ,211 4, , % 4/1/ ,917 1, , % 27/9/ ,656 6,7 186, % 27/9/ ,84 3,871 17,532 1.% 4/1/ ,41-5, , % 4/1/ ,147-54,997 56, % 27/9/216-67,552 27, , % 27/9/ ,15 27,98 51, % 4/1/216-32,882 19, , % 4/1/ ,97 11, , % 27/9/216-52,594-9,99 217, % 27/9/216 13,785-6, , % Total OI : 1,77,47 1,77,593 *Total OI : 1,77,47 1,77,593 vs. CBOT Corn Speculator Net Length vs. CBOT Corn CBOT Corn (RHS) Speculator ( & Other Reportable) CBOT Corn (RHS) 6 vs. CBOT Corn 8 vs. CBOT Corn CBOT Corn (RHS) CBOT Corn (RHS) 3 CBOT Corn Open Interest % % 2% 1% 5 5% Swap End User Page 4 of 17

5 Commitment of Traders Report Summary 1 October 216 CBOT Wheat 4/1/ ,69-2, , % 4/1/ ,417-2, 197, % 27/9/ , , % 27/9/ ,417-4, , % 4/1/216 14,329 2,28 69, % 4/1/216 71,217 3,467 58, % 27/9/216 12,49-2,229 7, % 27/9/216 67,75-3,98 58,17 1.5% 4/1/216 46,22 14, , % 4/1/216,15 13, , % 27/9/216 31,757 2, , % 27/9/216 26,474 3,775 11, % 4/1/216 14,3 3,629 52,23 9.1% 4/1/216 25, , % 27/9/216 1, ,27 9.2% 27/9/216 26,482 3,3 146, % Total OI : 573,57 555,16 *Total OI : 573,57 555,16 vs. CBOT Wheat Speculator Net Length vs. CBOT Wheat CBOT Wheat (RHS) Speculator ( & ) CBOT Wheat (RHS) 25 vs. CBOT Wheat 8 25 vs. CBOT Wheat CBOT Wheat (RHS) CBOT Wheat (RHS) 8 CBOT Wheat Open Interest % % 2% 1% Swap End User Page 5 of 17

6 Commitment of Traders Report Summary 1 October 216 KCBT Wheat 4/1/216-14,598 3, , % 4/1/ ,642 85, % 27/9/216-18,569 3,9 111, % 27/9/216-5,498 2,9 78, % 4/1/216 44,659-4,315 25, % 4/1/216 32,14-2,789 23, % 27/9/216 48, , % 27/9/216 34, , % 4/1/216-26,89 1,894 8, % 4/1/216-28, , % 27/9/216-28,73-5,261 82, % 27/9/216-29,787-5,137 76, % 4/1/216-3,253-1,551 22,685 9.% 4/1/ ,248 44, % 27/9/216-1, , % 27/9/216 2,184 1,31, % Total OI : 251, ,616 *Total OI : 251, ,616 vs. KCBT Wheat Speculator Net Length vs. KCBT Wheat KCBT Wheat (RHS) Speculator ( & ) KCBT Wheat (RHS) 7 vs. KCBT Wheat 95 5 vs. KCBT Wheat KCBT Wheat (RHS) KCBT Wheat (RHS) 3 KCBT Wheat Open Interest 6% 25 5% 15 % 3% 2% 1% 5 % Producer/Merchant Page 6 of 17

7 Commitment of Traders Report Summary 1 October 216 CBOT Soybeans 4/1/216 39,211 1,49 359, % 4/1/216 65,167 7, , % 27/9/216 28,721-28,61 354,135.8% 27/9/216 57,652-32, , % 4/1/216 17, , % 4/1/216 84,941 2,31 93, % 27/9/216 17, , % 27/9/216 82,6 7,368 92,67 1.6% 4/1/216-96,799-17, , % 4/1/ ,126-18,95 316, % 27/9/216-78,815 36,51 338, % 27/9/216-98,176 29, , % 4/1/216-5,31 7,216 81, % 4/1/216 17,5 1, , % 27/9/216-57,247-8,547 83,98 9.7% 27/9/216 15,131 4,29 248, % Total OI : 876, ,89 *Total OI : 876, ,89 vs. CBOT Soybeans Speculator Net Length vs. CBOT Soybeans CBOT Soybeans (RHS) Speculator ( & ) CBOT Soybeans (RHS) vs. CBOT Soybeans 17 vs. CBOT Soybeans CBOT Soybeans (RHS) CBOT Soybeans (RHS) 15 CBOT Soybeans Open Interest 45% 13 % % 2% 1% 5% End User Page 7 of 17

8 Commitment of Traders Report Summary 1 October 216 CBOT Soybean Oil 4/1/216 99,958-3,86 186, % 4/1/216 92,742-1,45 93, % 27/9/216 13,818 12, ,994.4% 27/9/216 94,192 11,951 95,4 21.% 4/1/216 83, , % 4/1/216 72, , % 27/9/216 83, , 12.% 27/9/216 72, , % 4/1/ ,672 2,81 172,67 38.% 4/1/ ,66 4,28 162, % 27/9/216-22,473-15,25 181, % 27/9/ ,634-13, , % 4/1/216 16, , % 4/1/216 3,549-2,2 19,92 24.% 27/9/216 15,534 1,675 34, % 27/9/216 32, , % Total OI : 453, ,4 *Total OI : 453, ,4 vs. CBOT Soybean Oil Speculator Net Length vs. CBOT Soybean Oil CBOT Soybean Oil (RHS) Speculator ( & ) CBOT Soybean Oil (RHS) 12 vs. CBOT Soybean Oil vs. CBOT Soybean Oil CBOT Soybean Oil (RHS) CBOT Soybean Oil (RHS) 6 CBOT Soybean Oil Open Interest 5% Net Length as a % of Open Interest 55 45% % % 2% 3 1% 5% 25 % End User Page 8 of 17

9 Commitment of Traders Report Summary 1 October 216 CBOT Soybean Meal 4/1/216 3,1 3,84 154, % 4/1/216 14,83 3,13 62, % 27/9/216 26,926-19, , % 27/9/216 11,7-19,448 63, % * 4/1/216 61,3-4,36 48, % 4/1/216 74,485-2,388 56, % 27/9/216 65,66-9,77 45, % 27/9/216 76,873 2,12 54, % 4/1/216-44,222-6,87 218, % 4/1/ ,77-4, , % 27/9/216-37,352 27,17 223, % 27/9/ ,225 25,4 169,513.3% 4/1/216 14,212 3,785 42, % 4/1/216 15, , % 27/9/216 1,427-7,153, % 27/9/216 15, , % Total OI : 415,688 42,246 *Total OI : 415,688 42,246 vs. CBOT Soybean Meal Speculator Net Length vs. CBOT Soybean Meal USD / ton USD / ton CBOT Soybean Meal (RHS) Speculator ( & ) CBOT Soybean Meal (RHS) 6 Commercial Net Length vs. CBOT Soybean Meal 55 9 vs. CBOT Soybean Meal USD / ton USD / ton -1 Commercial Net Length CBOT Soybean Meal (RHS) CBOT Soybean Meal (RHS) 55 CBOT Soybean Meal Open Interest 6% % % 3% 2% 1% % End User *N.B. There is no Index Trader data provided by the CFTC for Soybean Meal, Data provided for Soybean Meal originates from the traditional COT report. Page 9 of 17

10 Commitment of Traders Report Summary 1 October 216 ICE NY No. 11 Sugar 4/1/216 29, , % 4/1/ , , % 27/9/216 29,985 4, , % 27/9/ ,248 1,8 239, % 4/1/ ,183-4, , % 4/1/216 58,8-5, , % 27/9/ ,661-4,75 118, % 27/9/216 64,492 1, , % 4/1/ ,381 4, , % 4/1/ ,562 5, ,425.1% 27/9/ ,879 4,468 54, % 27/9/ ,19-1,86 449, % 4/1/216 58, , % 4/1/216 64, , % 27/9/216 57,233-4,15 73, % 27/9/216 65,136 2, , % Total OI : 1,68,344 1,9,223 *Total OI : 1,68,344 1,9,223 vs. ICE NY No. 11 Sugar Speculator Net Length vs. ICE NY No. 11 Sugar ICE No. 11 Sugar (RHS) Speculators ( & Other Reportable) ICE NY No. 11 Sugar (RHS) 35 vs. ICE NY No. 11 Sugar vs. ICE NY No. 11 Sugar ICE No. 11 Sugar (RHS) ICE NY No. 11 Sugar (RHS) 16 ICE NY No. 11 Sugar Open Interest 5% 1 45% % 3% 2% 1% Swap End User Page 1 of 17

11 Commitment of Traders Report Summary 1 October 216 ICE NY Coffee 4/1/216 31,973-5,525 92, % 4/1/216 38,371-6,311 5, % 27/9/216 37,498-2,453 93, % 27/9/216 44,682-2,26 5, % 4/1/216 38, , % 4/1/216 31,9 1,113 25, % 27/9/216 38,122-1,681 21, % 27/9/216 29,977-4,395 26, % 4/1/216-76,7 5,54 98, % 4/1/216-78,638 4,172 89,46.1% 27/9/216-81,124 3,116, % 27/9/216-82,81 5,876 91,637.7% 4/1/216 5, , % 4/1/216 3, , % 27/9/216 5,52 1,16 9, % 27/9/216 2, , % Total OI : 222, ,155 *Total OI : 222, ,155 vs. ICE NY Coffee Speculator Net Length vs. ICE NY Coffee ICE Coffee (RHS) Speculators ( & ) ICE Coffee (RHS) 7 vs. ICE NY Coffee 2 5 vs. ICE NY Coffee ICE Coffee ICE Coffee (RHS) 3 ICE NY Coffee Open Interest 5% 45% % 3% 2% 1% 5 5% End User Page 11 of 17

12 Commitment of Traders Report Summary 1 October 216 ICE NY Cocoa 4/1/216 12, , % 4/1/216 22,3 2,92 62, % 27/9/216 13,342 4,953 14, % 27/9/216 2,311 4,53 6, % 4/1/216 14, , % 4/1/216 9, , % 27/9/216 15, ,81 9.8% 27/9/216 9, , % 4/1/216-3, , % 4/1/216-35, , % 27/9/216-3,868-5, , % 27/9/216-35,313-5,441 16,672.4% 4/1/216 3, ,89 4.2% 4/1/ ,73 52, % 27/9/216 2, , % 27/9/216 3, , % Total OI : 283,49 263,97 *Total OI : 283,49 263,97 vs. ICE NY Cocoa 36 Speculator Net Length vs. ICE NY Cocoa USD / tonne USD / tonne -2-2 ICE Cocoa (RHS) Speculators ( & ) ICE Cocoa (RHS) 45 vs. ICE NY Cocoa 36 2 vs. ICE NY Cocoa USD / tonne USD / tonne 5-5 ICE Cocoa (RHS) ICE Cocoa (RHS) 32 ICE NY Cocoa Open Interest 7% % 5% % 3% 2% 1% % End User Page 12 of 17

13 Commitment of Traders Report Summary 1 October 216 ICE NY No. 2 Cotton 4/1/216 76,26-6, , % 4/1/216 66,19-5,997 62, % 27/9/216 82,62 7, , % 27/9/216 72,16 6,226 65, % 4/1/216 72, , % 4/1/216 64,315 1,418 52, % 27/9/216 72,11-1,417 43, % 27/9/216 62,897-1,435 51,5 14.7% 4/1/ ,113 7, , % 4/1/ ,5 6, , % 27/9/ ,476-5,97 152, % 27/9/ ,292-6, , % 4/1/216 7,247-1,57 13, % 4/1/216 23, , % 27/9/216 8, ,875 4.% 27/9/216 24,625 1,594 8, % Total OI : 344, ,432 *Total OI : 344, ,432 vs. ICE NY No. 2 Cotton Speculator Net Length vs. ICE NY No. 2 Cotton ICE NY Cotton (RHS) Speculators ( & ) ICE Cotton (RHS) 9 vs ICE NY No. 2 Cotton 8 vs. ICE NY No. 2 Cotton ICE NY Cotton (RHS) ICE Cotton (RHS) 6 ICE NY No.2 Cotton Open Interest 5% 5 45% % 3 3% 2% 1% 5% End User Page 13 of 17

14 Commitment of Traders Report Summary 1 October 216 CME Live Cattle 4/1/216 1, , % 4/1/216 32, , % 27/9/216 1,495 4, , % 27/9/216 33,37 5,892 93, % 4/1/216 73, , % 4/1/216 54, ,11 1.1% 27/9/216 74,27 446, % 27/9/216 54, , % 4/1/216-7,849-2,796 93, % 4/1/216-76,731-2,414 86, % 27/9/216-68,53-1,915 93, % 27/9/216-74,317-2,435 86,3 24.4% 4/1/216-13,25 3,264 39, % 4/1/216 2, , % 27/9/216-16,469-3,27, % 27/9/216 3,59-1,132 98, 27.8% Total OI : 357,73 352,6 *Total OI : 357,73 352, vs. CME Live Cattle Speculator Net Length vs. CME Live Cattle CME Live Cattle (RHS) Speculators ( & ) CME Live Cattle (RHS) 1 vs. CME Live Cattle 18 vs. CME Live Cattle CME Live Cattle (RHS) CME Live Cattle (RHS) 55 CME Live Cattle Open Interest % % 2% 1% 5% End User Page 14 of 17

15 Commitment of Traders Report Summary 1 October 216 CME Feeder Cattle 4/1/216-2, , % 4/1/216-3, , % 27/9/216-2,451-1,65 32, % 27/9/216-4,333-1,111 14, % 4/1/216 1, , % 4/1/216 6, ,22 9.5% 27/9/216 1, , % 27/9/216 6, , % 4/1/216-2, , % 4/1/216-3, , % 27/9/216-2, , % 27/9/216-3, , % 4/1/216-5, , % 4/1/216 6, , % 27/9/216-5, , % 27/9/216 6, , % Total OI : 54,61 58,191 *Total OI : 54, vs. CME Feeder Cattle Speculator Net Length vs. CME Feeder Cattle CME Feeder Cattle (RHS) Speculators ( & ) CME Feeder Cattle (RHS) 12 vs. Feeder Cattle 26 7 vs. Feeder Cattle CME Feeder Cattle (RHS) CME Feeder Cattle (RHS) 7 CME Feeder Cattle Open Interest 6 3% % 1% 5% 1 % End User Page 15 of 17

16 Commitment of Traders Report Summary 1 October 216 CME Lean Hogs 4/1/216 18,217-1, , % 4/1/216 32,773 6,458 88, % 27/9/216 19,63-2, , % 27/9/216 26,315-4,79 82, % 4/1/216 69,533-1,454 39, % 4/1/216 55,911-4,16 36, % 27/9/216 7,987-1,, % 27/9/216 6,71-1,724 37, % 4/1/216-72,184 1,233 61, % 4/1/216-77,75 1,482 55, % 27/9/216-73,417 3,471 63,75 2.6% 27/9/216-78,557 3,78 56, % 4/1/216-15,566 1,67 3, % 4/1/216 3,958-5,387 12, % 27/9/216-17, , % 27/9/216 9,345 2,424 97, % Total OI : 312,533 36,69 *Total OI : 312, vs. CME Lean Hogs Speculator Net Length vs. CME Lean Hogs CME Lean Hogs (RHS) Speculators ( & ) CME Lean Hogs (RHS) vs. CME Lean Hogs 1 vs. CME Lean Hogs CME Lean Hogs (RHS) CME Lean Hogs (RHS) 45 CME Lean Hogs Open Interest % % 2% 1% 5% End User Page 16 of 17

17 Commitment of Traders Report Summary 1 October 216 Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory Agri Commodity Markets Research (ACMR): AgriMarketsResearch@rabobank.com Stefan Vogel London, United Kingdom stefan.vogel@rabobank.com Carlos Mera London, United Kingdom carlos.mera@rabobank.com Graydon Chong London, United Kingdom graydon.chong@rabobank.com Charles Clack London, United Kingdom charles.clack@rabobank.com Rabobank Markets Corporate Risk & Treasury Management Contacts: GLOBAL HEAD Martijn Sorber martijn.sorber@rabobank.com ASIA Koon Koh Tan koonkoh.tan@rabobank.com AUSTRALIA Terry Allom terry.allom@rabobank.com NETHERLANDS Arjan Veerhoek arjan.veerhoek@rabobank.com EUROPE Eliana de Rossi eliana.de.rossi@rabobank.com NORTH AMERICA David Teakle david.teakle@rabobank.com SOUTH AMERICA Sergio Nakashima sergio.nakashima@rabobank.com Non Independent Research This document is issued by Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A. incorporated in the Netherlands, trading as Rabobank London ( RL ). 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