Sector Risk Ratings. Changes at the end of Q Economic Research Department. Paris, December 13 th, Photo by rawpixel.

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1 Photo by rawpixel.com on Unsplash Sector Risk Ratings Changes at the end of Q Economic Research Department Paris, December 13 th, 2017

2 Content 1 Overview of Q sector risk changes 2 4 key topics: Automotive sector strongly back on track, Construction slowly recovering, Machinery poised to recover, Europe extending its lead 3 Methodology of the Sector Risk Ratings 2

3 Sectors continue to cash in on the return of global growth: +30 upgrades in Q Net changes of sector ratings now strongly in a bullish cycle with nearly three times more upgrades than downgrades in Q Sector risk changes by quarter Demand and liquidity show more positive net upgrade balance than profitability indicators Sector risk subcomponents changes in Q (*) The NACE code reallocation scheme triggered 10 upgrades and 1 downgrade in Q

4 Low risk Medium risk Sensitive risk (Western) Europe lies ahead of all other regions in terms of upgraded sectors The Europe region accounts for 22 net upgrades risk ratings in Q Net changes in sector risk ratings by region in Q (vs. Q3 2017) Recovering liquidity has found its way into the improvement of profitability almost all over the world Evolution of sector risk subcomponents by region in Q (vs. Q3 2017) Increasing risk (compare to Q3 2017); Falling risk (compared to Q3 2017) 4

5 Changes overview in Q4 2017: 4 takeaways Changes* in sector risk proposed in Q by sector and by region Construction Metals Textile Paper Machinery Energy Computers & Telecom Electronics Softw are & IT Services Transport Household equipment Retail Automotive Agrifood Transport Equipment Chemicals Pharma North America #2 #3 #1 APAC pjapan rindia Western Europe Eastern Europe Africa & Middle East pgreece psw eden rsw itzerland qitaly psw eden rgreece rgreece rportugal raustria pportugal psw eden rportugal *** pgermany #4 rsw eden pbulgaria pczech Rep. phungary pslovak Rep. rbulgaria platvia pczech Rep. pslovak Rep. promania rsaudi Arabia sqatar qbahrain qbahrain risrael Latin America scolombia scolombia qperu rbrazil *** rbrazil scolombia (***) Two sectors: Manufacturers + Suppliers #1 Automotive: Boosted by demand momentum in Europe and recovery in Brazil #2 Construction: Positive net balance for a slow recovery, thanks to Eastern Europe #3 Machinery: Net upgrade on the back of global growth #4 Europe: On the road of economic success Change* of sector risk in a given country: s Deterioration r Improvement * The color of the arrow gives the final risk level Regional risk level Low Medium Sensitive High 5

6 Q overview of changes: Sector risk map Quarterly revision of sector risk ratings 6

7 In 2017, Automotive is the strongest industry with positive net grade changes ahead of all others Automotive has joined the inner circle of global sectors enjoying a structural low risk profile Sector risk 4Q changes (number of changes for a given sector), by declining order of average risk 2017 has seen confirmation of a rise in the number of net upgrades across the globe (shifting of countries to the right in the chart) Sector risk 4Q net changes (x-axis) and global risk grade* (y-axis) in Q4 2017, by country * Risk grades are weighted in terms of countries GDP * Risk grades are weighted in terms of countries GDP 7

8 Content 1 Overview of Q sector risk changes 2 4 key topics: Automotive sector strongly back on track, Construction slowly recovering, Machinery poised to recover, Europe extending its lead 3 Methodology of the Sector Risk Ratings 8

9 Sensitive risk Automotive is back on a more profitable road The global rise in demand remains uneven but the improvement in subcomponents is strong enough to qualify several auto suppliers and manufacturers for an upgrade Changes in sector risk subcomponents in Q (number of industries*) In Q4 upgrades mainly concern European countries in recovery (Greece and Portugal) or accelerating (Sweden), and Brazil exiting from recession. Watch out for Bahrain. Changes in ratings proposed for Q SRC (new ratings by country) Automotive Manufacturers Automotive Suppliers Bahrain (D,P) Low risk Medium risk Brazil (D) Israel (L) Portugal (D,P) Sweden (P) Romania (P, L, Le) Brazil (D, P, L) Portugal (D,P) Greece Czech Rep. (D, L) Bulgaria (D, P, L, Le) (*) industries = manufacturers or suppliers Upgraded industry versus Downgraded industry Triggers for changes in grade: Demand (D), Profitability (P), Liquidity (L), Legal (Le) 9

10 The sun rose in Eastern Europe s Construction sector The momentum in the Construction sector has come mainly from Eastern Europe fueled by more confidence, demand and liquidity Confidence indicator in the construction sector in Bulgaria, Latvia and Slovakia in October 2017 Risk level ratings have been improving throughout the Construction sector since the end of 2015 Sector risk distribution in the construction in Europe (evolution over the last nine quarters) Upgrade from 4 to 3: Bulgaria and Slovakia (and Greece) Upgrade from 3 to 2: Latvia (and Japan) Demand (2) and Liquidity (2) or both (1) of these subcomponents have improved The decline in Construction is over : high risk from 9 to 2 Weaknesses still prevail : medium risk for a majority of countries 10

11 Machinery: Underpinned by global growth Positive net change continues previous quarters trends Distribution of changes in grades (Q4 2017) Industrial output data suggest continuation of growth for the Machinery sector, confirmed by business confidence Global industrial output indices 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% High risk: imminent or recognised crisis. Sensitive risk: structural weaknesses; unfavorable or fairly bad outlook. Medium risk: signs of weaknesses; possible slowdown % 10% 0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Low risk: sound fundamentals; very favorable or fairly good outlook. 50 Japan China US France Germany Italy (rhs) Spain (rhs) UK (rhs) 80 Upgrade from 3 to 2: India Upgrade from 3 to 2: Switzerland Upgrade from 2 to 1: Sweden Business sentiment: slowdown in China (-60bps ytd), growth US (+40bps ytd), Japan flat, Eurozone very positive (+310bps) Sources: IHS, Bloomberg 11

12 Europe: Sectors have been slowly but constantly improving for two years (except for the UK) Hardly any European sector has been rated as either Sensitive or High risk for one year: 22 new upgrades in Europe in Q4 Q changes in sector risk ratings (number of countries) The UK exception: Automotive and (Paper) sectors have been downgraded to Medium (High) risk since the Brexit referendum Sector risk distribution in the UK 12

13 Content 1 Overview of Q sector risk changes 2 4 key topics: Automotive sector strongly back on track, Construction slowly recovering, Machinery poised to recover, Europe extending its lead 3 Methodology of the Sector Risk Ratings 13

14 Methodology of the Sector Risk Ratings The objective: to gauge the risk of non-payment by a company in a given industry (an industry is a given sector in a given country) An assessment based on the evaluation of 4 key components, updated quarterly And dedicated to completing both the Country Risk (CR) and the Individual Buyer Risk (IBR) #1: #2: #3: #4: Demand risk (focus on turnover evolution and expected revenues) Profitability risk (focus on expected profitability, fluctuations in supply/capacity and price of raw materials) Financing risk (focus on liquidity, access to financing, and payment performance) Business environment (focus on technological innovations, government subsidies system and legal framework) LOW RISK: sound fundamentals; very favorable or fairly good outlook. MEDIUM RISK: signs of weaknesses; possible slowdown. SENSITIVE RISK: structural weaknesses; unfavorable or fairly bad outlook. HIGH RISK: imminent or recognised crisis. Indivual Buyer Risk SECTOR RISK Country Risk 14

15 Thank you for your attention Next Update: End of March 2018