Outlook for the Economy and Travel Outlook for the Global Economy and Travel

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1 Outlook for the Economy and Travel Outlook for the Global Economy and Travel Adam Sacks President Tourism Adam Sacks President Tourism

2 Outline The Outlook for the Economy and Travel Views on a strengthening economy Risks Will there be enough demand? Oxford Economics

3 Strongest world post-crisis economic growth in 2018 Global economic growth appears synchronized and solid. Expected 3.2% global GDP growth in 2018 will be strongest performance post-crisis. Synchronized growth in both advanced and emerging economies. Low interest rates / supportive credit, and fastest world trade since crisis.

4 US economy is ramping up (2.9% GDP growth this year) $1.5 trillion tax cut (TCJA) $300 billion spending bill which will reach up to $1.2 trillion (BBA) Oxford Economics

5 Ongoing rotation to business investment in 2018: US Business investment and exports will be stronger engines of growth. Consumer spending trends will reflect a maturing economy.

6 Business investment continues to grow strongly

7 Leading surveys point to ongoing momentum

8 Private sector confidence remains upbeat

9 Labor market dynamics are positive

10 RISKS

11 What could possibly go wrong?

12 Risk #1: Bad Policy

13 Policy Risks: Fiscal stimulus vs Trade drag? Tax Cuts Government spending Infrastructure Less regulation Political uncertainty Trade protection Immigration

14 NAFTA: A US-exit would hurt everyone

15 Risk #2: Fed s balancing act could prove challenging Recession shading Faster inflation could lead to a more hawkish Fed and a market indigestion. A wider a budget deficit and reduced asset purchases from the Fed could push up long term rates

16 Risk #3: Wages must increase

17 But savings dip driven mostly by lower-income families US: The bottom 60% are driving the savings dip US$ billion Total savings (2015) EOP Top 40%: increased savings Bottom 60%: decreased savings Source : Oxford Economics / Consumer Expenditure Survey Total savings (2016) EOP

18 Risk 4: Financial market stress A lasting 10% stock market decline would shave 0.5pp from GDP growth (This is different from a correction from short term peak)

19 WHERE WILL THE DEMAND COME FROM?

20 Supply appears to be peaking below prior cycles Oxford Economics

21 Market-level supply pressures are beginning to ease Oxford Economics

22 Strength of demand is setting new norms Room nights per capita, US Annual room nights Q4: 3.8 room nights per capita Note: Seasonally adjusted Source: STR; Tourism Economics Oxford Economics

23 But has settled into strong correlation with GDP Room demand and GDP % change 10% 8% Demand 6% 4% GDP 4.0% 2.5% 1.7% 2.7% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Note: Real GDP. Source: STR; BEA; Tourism Economics Oxford Economics

24 Further demand gains anticipated as GDP accelerates Oxford Economics

25 Industry mix and demographics favor west and south GDP CAGR, (%) Pacific Southwest & Mountains South East Midwest Source : Oxford Economics

26 Sources of new demand International markets Groups Vacation starved Americans Seasoned travellers

27 Has there been a Trump Slump in visits to US? Oxford Economics

28 Source: Pew Research Center

29 International travel to the US increased in 2017 US Inbound: Key Markets, 2017 Percentage change US Inbound: World Regions, 2017 Percentage change South Korea Argentina China Japan Canada 8.4% 6.9% 5.9% 4.9% 13.1% Caribbean Asia/Pacific Overseas Europe 6.1% 4.3% 2.6% 33.2% Germany France Brazil Australia UK 4.5% 3.9% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% Total Latin America North America Africa -0.3% -3.2% 2.0% 0.4% Mexico -5.7% Middle East -6.2% Source: Tourism Economics -15% -5% 5% 15% Source: Tourism Economics -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45%

30 The dollar has eased, supporting further inbound gains Value of the US dollar in 2017Q4: 12% stronger than 2014, but just 2.0% stronger than historical average Oxford Economics

31 Opportunity: New traveling households Added households with income > $35, vs Germany Spain Australia Venezuela Canada Italy Argentina France UK Mexico South Korea Russia Brazil USA India China Millions Source: Tourism Economics,constant 2015 prices million Oxford Economics

32 New traveling households ($100k threshold) Added households with income > $100, vs Argentina Venezuela Mexico Brazil Russia Spain Italy South Korea France Canada India Australia Germany UK China USA Millions Source: Tourism Economics,constant 2015 prices

33 West coast markets are favorably positioned West coast markets such as LA expected to benefit from Asia inbound growth. Oxford Economics

34 Sources of new demand International markets Groups Vacation starved Americans Seasoned travellers

35 Prospects for group are encouraging Group Room Demand and CAPEX % change 10% 5% Real capital investment 0% -5% Group room demand -10% -15% -20% Source: STR, BEA Oxford Economics

36 Sources of new demand International markets Groups Vacation starved Americans Seasoned travellers

37 Target opportunity: 660 mn unused vacation days Days Away on Vacation Annual vacation days per worker Long-term average: 20.3 days Vacation days Long-term average Note: Estimates are based on survey results for 2013 to 2017 (GfK and Beresford Research). Estimates for earlier years are based on analysis of BLS data. Source: Oxford Economics

38 Reversal in trends for both short and longer trips Full and Partial Week Vacations 24-month moving average, % of employed adults 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Full week - out all week for vacation Partial week - out part of week for vacation 0.0% Source: Oxford Economics analysis of BLS survey results

39 Sources of new demand International markets Groups Vacation starved Americans Seasoned travellers

40 All age groups are spending more on travel, led by seniors Recent household spending on lodging by age Difference relative to long-term average 16% 20% 23% 24% 12% 8% 8% 1% All households Under to to to to to Household age brackets Note: Recent constant dollar spending (2013 to 2015) relative to long-term average for the same age brackets (1984 to 2015). Source: BLS; Tourism Economics

41 Seniors now represent greatest share of households and spending Share of lodging spending by age 60% 2000: 50% 2000: 42% 2015: 42% 50% 2015: 45% 2000: 33% 40% 2000: 35% 2015: 41% 2015: 36% 30% r 2000: 25% 2015: 22% 20% 10% 55 and over 35 to : 15% 2015: 13% Note: Lodging spending is based on recent three-year average (2013 to 2015). Consumer spending represents leisure trips. Source: BLS; Tourism Economics Year 0% Under Year

42 Key takeaways Improved economy to boost demand Risks are real but not high probability Supply increases present challenges to rate Demand will match supply increases Demand gains through 2018 and Business and group travel to show life. Watch for policy mis-steps, wage stagnation, and interest rates. Despite high occupancies, rate gains will remain modest. International visitors, groups, vacation trends, and demographics paint a positive picture. Oxford Economics

43 March 2018 Tourism Economics / Oxford Economics All data shown in tables and charts is Tourism Economics / Oxford Economics own data, and is copyright Oxford Economics Ltd, except where otherwise stated. To discuss further please contact: Aran Ryan, Director, Lodging Analytics, Tourism Economics / Oxford Economics aran.ryan@tourismeconomics.com 43

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