EQUITY RESEARCH. Royal Dutch Shell B, Attractively Valued - Buy. Share Price: 2,202p Target Price: 2,500p (+14%) 21 September 2017
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- Myles Pitts
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1 Royal Dutch Shell B, Attractively Valued - Buy Share Price: 2,202p Target Price: 2,500p (+14%) Royal Dutch Shell B (RDSB.L) recently presented its view of global, long term energy supply and demand. Importantly, Shell is very well positioned to benefit from changes in global energy supply (GES) as the high reliance on hydrocarbons eases and wind and solar power contribute to an increasingly electrified GES arena. That said, the oil price remains a key share price driver for Shell today, and OPEC s statement yesterday that it is considering extending and/or deepening output cuts until March-18, drove Brent Crude up to over US$55 per barrel. At this price, Shell (and its peer BP) are both highly profitable now, having adjusted their cost bases sharply downwards since the oil price slump in Trading on around 6x prospective EV/EBITDA and yielding 6.3%, the stock looks attractive. Buy Shell s View On Changing Global Energy Supply. Shell s recent presentation on global, long term energy supply and demand highlighted just how important hydrocarbons (oil, gas & coal) remain in the global energy system (GES). For example, some 60 years ago, hydrocarbons represented around 80% of the energy system, today the figure is still around 80%, with solar & wind only representing 2% of the GES. Looking forward years however, the 20% which is non- hydrocarbon currently is likely to increase towards 40% of an increasingly electrified GES, dominated by solar and wind power. On Track To Deliver 2020 targets. Shell is on track to deliver upon its 2020 business transformation targets to make the business more competitive and cash flows more resilient through the oil price cycle. Valuation and Recommendation. Trading on 6.0x FY-17 EV/EBITDA and yielding some 6.3%, Shell is attractively valued with higher and more reliable cash flows now feeding through. We expect a fully funded cash dividend this year and next, partly the result of some $10bn in annual cash flow to be generated from new projects initiated between We thus reiterate our Buy recommendation with 2500p target price. Consensus Forecasts & Key Metrics Year to Dec: E 2018E Financials Revenue ($bn) EBITDA ($bn) EBITDA margin (%) 12.7% 16.7% 17.3% EPS ($) DPS ($) Valuation P/E EV/EBITDA DIV Yield (%) 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% Source: Company Historic Data, Consensus Data, Beaufort Estimates Profile Code: A-1-5 Classification & Overview Objective: Growth & Income Risk Score: 5, Time Horizon: Medium (12m) Royal Dutch Shell comprises of a group of energy and petrochemical companies, with operations in four key business areas; Upstream Exploration, Downstream Refining, Integrated Gas and Projects & Technology. The company has class 'A' and 'B' shares, which have identical rights except dividends paid on class 'A' shares have a Dutch source for tax purposes. The shares are traded on the LSE, Euronext and NYSE. Company Details EPIC Code: RDSB.L Data NOS (m) & Free Float % Mkt Cap ($bn) 241 Net Debt : EBITDA (x) Year Beta 1.27 Next Ex-Div Date Next Results: Q Nov Nov-17 Source: Company Data, Consensus Data, Broker Forecasts Share Price History Source: LondonStockExchange.com Revenue Split Source: FY 16 Results Research Analyst Ben Maitland CFA UK Ben.Maitland@beaufortsecurities.com 1
2 RDSB, FCF Likely To Turn Strongly Positive The Cashflow table below summarises our cash flow expectations for Shell for the coming two years. After reporting negative FCF and negative Net cashflow in FY-16, we expect cashflow to turn sharply positive this year, such that the dividend should be fully funded from the businesses cashflows. Like wise in FY-18. RDSB s dividend should be fully funded from FCF this year and next. Strengths Shell has both Upstream and Downstream activities, which provides relative earnings stability under most oil price scenarios. Synergy benefits from the BG deal now starting to flow strongly, with annualised cost savings of over US$ 9billion. Shell does not hedge it s production, thus is well placed to benefit from higher spot crude oil prices. Weaknesses Relatively weak oil price environment (compared to three years ago) may persist for some time, impacting Shell s Upstream profitability. High depreciation charges are depressing reported earnings, making the company look expensive on a P/ E and Dividend cover basis. Underfunded dividend for the past two years, but this is very likely to improve in FY-17E. 2
3 RDSB, Attractively Valued Amidst Its Peers The Oil & Gas peer group valuation chart below highlights, in our opinion, how attractively valued RDSB stock is presently. RDSB is also well positioned to benefit from higher oil prices this year, should OPEC enact its deeper output cuts. RDSB s valuation is attractive in relation to its peers we believe. 3
4 Beaufort Profiling Code Royal Dutch Shell B A-1-5 LETTER CODES A Large market capital company e.g. FTSE 100 B Medium market capital company e.g. FTSE 250 C Small market capital company e.g. AIM NUMBER CODES 1st Recommendation (Scale 1 - to - 5) 1 Buy 2 Long Term Buy (core) 3 Speculative Buy 4 Hold 5 Sell 2nd Beaufort Risk level 1 - low risk ( Scale 1 -to - 10 ) 10 - high risk Key Contacts Head of Retail Broking Costas Costantinou +44 (0) costas.constantinou@beaufortsecurities.com Chief Investment Strategist Mike Franklin +44 (0) mike.franklin@beaufortsecurities.com Head of Online Trading Matthew Giles +44 (0) matthew.giles@beaufortsecurities.com Our Offices London: 63 St Mary Axe, London EC3A 8AA Tel: +44 (0) Bristol: Castlemead, Lower Castle Street, Bristol BS1 3AG Tel: +44 (0) Colwyn Bay: 15 Wynnstay Road, Colwyn Bay LL29 8N Tel: +44 (0) Newcastle: Rotterdam House, 116 Quayside, Newcastle-upon-Tyne NE1 3DY Tel: +44 (0)
5 Recommendation Breakdown During the three months to end-august 2017, the number of stocks on which Beaufort Securities published recommendations was 203, and the recommendations were as follows: Buy - 65; Speculative Buy - 117; Hold - 20; Sell - 1. Full definitions of the recommendations used by Beaufort Securities in its publications and their respective meanings can be found on our website here. Disclaimer This report is published by Beaufort Securities ( Beaufort Securities ). Beaufort Securities is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange, ISDX and the QCA This research is non-independent and is classified as a Marketing Communication under FCA rules. As such it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote independence of investment research and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research in COBS However Beaufort Securities has adopted internal procedures which prohibit analysts from dealing ahead of nonindependent research, except for legitimate market making and fulfilling clients unsolicited orders. RELIANCE ON THIS NOTE FOR THE PURPOSE OF ENGAGING IN ANY INVESTMENT ACTIVITY MAY EXPOSE AN INDIVIDUAL TO A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSING ALL OF THE FUNDS, PROPERTY OR OTHER ASSETS INVESTED OR OF INCURRING ADDITIONAL LIABILITY. By receiving this document, you will not be deemed a client or provided with the protections afforded to clients of Beaufort Securities. When distributing this document, Beaufort Securities is not acting for any recipient of this document and will not be responsible for providing advice to any recipient in relation to this document. Accordingly, Beaufort Securities will not be responsible to any recipient for providing the protections afforded to its clients. Beaufort Securities may effect transactions in shares mentioned herein and may take proprietary trading positions in those shares, and may receive remuneration for the publication of its research and for other services. Beaufort Securities may be a shareholder in any of the companies mentioned in this report. Accordingly, this document may not be considered as objective or impartial. Additionally, information may be available to Beaufort Securities or the Group, which is not reflected in this material. The remuneration of the author of this report is not tied to the recommendations on any shares mentioned nor to the any transactions undertaken by Beaufort Securities or any affiliate company. Further information on Beaufort Securities policy regarding potential conflicts of interest in the context of investment research and Beaufort Securities policy on disclosure and conflicts in general are available on request. Please refer to This document is not an offer to buy or sell any security or currency. This document does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. The appropriateness of a particular investment or currency will depend on an investor s individual circumstances and objectives. The investments and shares referred to in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Investments may go down in value as well as up and you may not get back the full amount invested. The listing requirements for securities listed on AIM or ISDX are less demanding and trading in them may be less liquid than main markets. This document is based on information Beaufort Securities has received from publicly available reports and industry sources. Beaufort Securities may not have verified all of this information with third parties. Neither Beaufort Securities nor its advisors, directors or employees can guarantee the accuracy, reasonableness or completeness of the information received from any sources consulted for this publication, and neither Beaufort Securities nor its advisors, directors or employees accepts any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this document (except in respect of wilful default and to the extent that any such liability cannot be excluded by the applicable law). This document is not to be relied upon and should not be used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. This document includes certain statements, estimates, and projections with respect to the anticipated future performance of securities listed on stock exchanges and as to the market for these shares. Such statements, estimates, and projections are based on information that we consider reliable and may reflect various assumptions made concerning anticipated economic developments, which have not been independently verified and may or may not prove correct. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy of such statements, estimates, and projections or as to its fitness for the purpose intended and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only and may change without notice. Other third parties may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, views, and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. This report has not been disclosed to any of the companies mentioned herein prior to its publication. The information contained in this document is confidential and is solely for use of those persons to whom it is addressed and may not be reproduced, further distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Other persons who receive this document should not rely on it. Beaufort Securities, its directors, officers and employees may have positions in the securities mentioned herein. Company Disclosures for: Royal Dutch Shell B The following disclosures apply: N/A Definitions of Disclosures 1. In the past 12 months, Beaufort Securities Limited or its affiliates have had corporate finance mandates or managed or co -managed a public offering of the relevant issuer s securities or receive compensation for Corporate Finance services from the relevant issuer. 2. Beaufort Securities Limited expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for Corporate Finance Services from this compa ny in the next six months. 3. The investment analyst or a member of the investment analyst s household has a long position in the shares or derivatives of the relevant issuer. 4. The investment analyst or a member of the investment analyst s household has a short position in the shares or derivatives of the relevant issuer. 5. As of the month end immediately preceding the date of publication of this report, or the prior month end if publication is wi thin 10 days following a month end, Beaufort Securities Limited and / or its affiliates beneficially owned 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the rele vant issuer. 6. A senior executive or director of Beaufort Securities Limited or a member of his or her household is an officer, director or advisor, board member of the relevant issuer and / or one of his subsidiaries. 7. Beaufort Securities Limited acts as corporate broker to the relevant issuer. The investment analyst who is responsible for the preparation of this investment research is employed by Beaufort Securities Limited. 5
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