Market Outlook December 1, 2015

Transcription

1 Market Outlook 216 December 1, 215

2 sep/6 mar/7 sep/7 mar/8 sep/8 mar/9 sep/9 mar/1 sep/1 mar/11 sep/11 mar/12 sep/12 mar/13 sep/13 mar/14 sep/14 mar/15 sep/15 mar/16 Strong growth in Sweden but the stock market is volatile The stock market indicates weaker growth GDP growth (y/y,%) Total return equities (y/y,%) 1 8 Swedish GDP growth is internationally strong GDP growth (y/y, %) Share of world economy % % % 15% 24% %.1 GDP growth Sweden (y/y, %) Source: Catella och Factset 17 FTSE All Cap Sweden (Total Return, y/y, %, lagged 3 quarters) Average GDP growth (y/y, %) Average GDP growth 215E-216E (y/y, %) Share of global economy 215E, current prices 215, USD

3 Stockholm is the growth engine of Sweden GDP growth per region, Average annual GDP growth (%) 1.4 Accumulated population growth Expected population growth (%) Greater Stockholm* South Sweden West Sweden Rest of Sweden Stockholms Greater Stockholm län Sweden Sverige * Mälardalen Source: Nordea, SCB och SLL 18

4 High valuation of property on the stock market Average yield, property portfolios Nasdaq Main Market (%) Average equity market premium Nasdaq Main Market (%) ppt Yield fastighetsbestånd, enligt Yield according BR, to balance % sheets Implicit yield fastighetsbestånd, % Implicit yield Börspremium Premium Q4 Q Börspremium Premium Q3 215 Q3 215 Source: Catella och Sedis 19

5 jan/11 apr/11 jul/11 okt/11 jan/12 apr/12 jul/12 okt/12 jan/13 apr/13 jul/13 okt/13 jan/14 apr/14 jul/14 okt/14 jan/15 apr/15 jul/15 okt/15 jan/11 apr/11 jul/11 okt/11 jan/12 apr/12 jul/12 okt/12 jan/13 apr/13 jul/13 okt/13 jan/14 apr/14 jul/14 okt/14 jan/15 apr/15 jul/15 High activity on the transaction market Historical retail and office transactions Yield (%) STDAV yield (%-points) Total transaction volume, property market BSEK Yields, office and retail transactions, rolling 6 months average (left) Implicit STDAV*, office and retail transactions, rolling 6 months average (right) Total transaction volume, 12 months average, BSEK Total transaction volume, average , BSEK Source: Catella 2

6 apr/6 okt/6 apr/7 okt/7 apr/8 okt/8 apr/9 okt/9 apr/1 okt/1 apr/11 okt/11 apr/12 okt/12 apr/13 okt/13 apr/14 okt/14 apr/15 okt/15 apr/6 okt/6 apr/7 okt/7 apr/8 okt/8 apr/9 okt/9 apr/1 okt/1 apr/11 okt/11 apr/12 okt/12 apr/13 okt/13 apr/14 okt/14 apr/15 okt/15 but the investment cycle has peaked Standard deviation in yields and Credit spreads STDAV (%-points) Credit spread (%-points) Standard deviation in yields and the VIX STDAV (%-points) VIX Index Yield spread, Moody's AAA-BAA Corporate Bonds, lagged 6 months ahead Implicit STDAV, 6 months running average* CBOE Market Volatility Index, Index Price Level, lagged 6 months ahead Implicit STDAV, 6 months running average* Source: Catella och FactSet 21

7 Slowdown in issuance of preference shares Total issued volumes, preference shares MSEK 14 Issuance of preference shares in 215 MSEK [BUBBLE SIZE]M jan/15 feb/15 mar/15 apr/15 maj/15 jun/15 jul/15 aug/15 sep/15 okt/15 Total issued volume Nasdaq Main Market Total issued volume Nasdaq First North Source: Catella 22

8 Continuously low yields and strong rental growth in the CBD Office yields, Stockholm (%) Office rental growth, Stockholm Annual growth (%) % 7. 4.% % 6. 2.% % % % E 216E 217E 218E 219E Stockholm CBD Stockholm Prime Suburb Rest of Greater Stockholm Stockholm Central -2.% Stockholm CBD Stockholm Central Stockholm Prime Suburb Annual average E Annual average 218E 219E Rest of Greater Stockholm Source: Catella 23 3 D E C E M B E R, C A T E L L A

9 Low interest rates are pushing down property total return Total return on the Swedish property market and GDP growth Total return IPD Index (y/y, %) %) 4 GDP growth (y/y, Source: IPD, FactSet, Konjunkturinstitutet and Catella 24 3 D E C E M B E R, C A T E L L A Weighted average, all property Average total return, Average total return, Average total return, 215E-219E GDP growth (y/y, %) Correlation :.64 Average total return : 12.4 % 2 214: 7.9 % 215E 219E: 6.5 %

10 25 catella.se/corporatefinance