Planning Committee STAFF REPORT May 3, 2017 Page 2 of 5 previous (2013) RTP. Furthermore, the region is expected to create 820,000 new housing units,

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1 Planning Committee STAFF REPORT Meeting Date: May 3, 2017 Subject Summary of Issues Recommendations Financial Implications Options Attachments (Attachment A is new) Changes from Committee Comments on Draft Plan Bay Area 2040 MTC s 2017 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) The Draft Plan Bay Area 2040 document was released by MTC on April 3, 2017, and may be downloaded from MTC s website. Authority staff has prepared comments on the Draft Plan. Staff seeks authorization to submit comments to MTC on May 18 th. Review draft comment letter and authorize staff to submit it to MTC. Transportation projects need to be included in the RTP in order to receive future State or federal funding. Revise the comment letter or withhold comments. A. Draft Comment Letter from the Authority to MTC on the Draft 2017 RTP (to be handed out during the Planning Committee meeting on May 3, 2017) The Planning Committee directed staff to draft a comment letter to MTC outlining the Authority s concerns. Background MTC s enabling legislation (as amended) requires that the agency prepare a Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and update it every four years. To fulfill this requirement, MTC released its Draft 2017 RTP called Plan Bay Area 2040 (PBA 2040) on April 3 rd, with comments due by June 1, The final Plan is scheduled for MTC Commission adoption in July Staff has prepared a comment letter for the Authority to approve on May 17 th. If approved, staff will transmit the letter to MTC prior to the June 1 st close of comment period. Draft Plan Bay Area 2040 The Plan forecasts that the Bay Region s population will grow from 7.2 million in 2010, to 9.6 million in This is 300,000 persons more than the 2040 forecast from the 4.B.8-1

2 Planning Committee STAFF REPORT May 3, 2017 Page 2 of 5 previous (2013) RTP. Furthermore, the region is expected to create 820,000 new housing units, and 1.3 million new jobs by This constitutes an increase of 160,000 more housing units than forecast in the 2013 RTP, and 200,000 more jobs than previously forecast. This robust growth in population, housing and jobs, coupled with a rapidly growing senior population, provides the backdrop for Plan Bay Area The Draft Plan Bay Area 2040 contains MTC s first update to the Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) initially adopted in The goal of the SCS is to reduce per-capita greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cars and light trucks by 15 percent to meet the targets established through Senate Bill (SB) 375. According to the Draft Plan, MTC believes that it can exceed the critical, 15-percent state-mandated indicator, with a 16 percent reduction in per-capita GHG emissions. Plan Bay Area 2040 explores providing enough housing so that the number of workers who have to commute in from outlying counties will remain constant. It also looks at stretching available revenues through smart investments, increasing economic competitiveness, preserving our natural environment, and helping to ensure a healthy, vibrant region for future generations to come. Performance Measures Plan Bay Area 2040 uses a performance-based approach to decide which projects should be included in a financially-constrained transportation project list, and applies a model called Urbanism to decide which land use alternative to select. The performance measures are centered on the three E s Economy, Environment, and Equity. The Plan achieves the voluntary goal of housing the region s population, preserving open space, and maintaining economic vitality. On other voluntary measures, however, the Plan falls short. The targets for reducing particulate emissions, increasing daily physical activity through walking or biking, increasing non-auto mode share, and reducing per-rider transit delay, are not achieved. For a number of other measures such as reducing the share of income consumed by transportation and housing for lowincome residents, the Plan moves the needle in the opposite direction from the target. To address those performance targets where the plan is moving in the wrong direction, MTC developed a new element to the RTP. This new element, called the Action Plan (Chapter 5) is intended to address the housing crisis, economic development specifically regional competitiveness and mobility and resilience against sea level rise. Funding Summary The gross revenue forecast for the Plan through 2040 is $303 billion, of which 72 percent is committed to maintaining the region s roadway and transit system. These figures are essentially unchanged from the previous RTP, which had a gross budget of $289 billion in year of expenditure (YOE) dollars. Approximately $74 billion are so-called discretionary investments, available for assignment to projects and programs by MTC 4.B.8-2

3 Planning Committee STAFF REPORT May 3, 2017 Page 3 of 5 through Plan Bay Area The Plan invests those discretionary funds through three key strategies: Operate and Maintain, Modernize, and Expand. Key Transportation Investments Plan Bay Area 2040 generally carries forward the major projects for Contra Costa that were included in the 2013 RTP. The project list, however, is thinning as major projects, such as the SR 4 widening in East County, and the Caldecott Tunnel are moved to the completed column. At the same time, the cost to maintain and operate what we have continues to displace new initiatives for expansion. The following lists major projects found in the plan: Regional Transit Investments 1. ebart (Phase 1) Pittsburg-Baypoint BART to Hillcrest Avenue in Antioch 2. Hercules Commuter Rail Station 3. New ferry routes from Richmond and Hercules to San Francisco Highway and Arterial Projects 4. Interchange improvements at I-680/4 (scaled back from the 2013 RTP to include only Phase 3) 5. I-80 San Pablo Dam Road 6. SR 4 Operational Improvements (new) 7. Byron/Vasco Road Connector (2 lanes) Express Lanes 8. I-680 Convert existing HOV lanes to express lanes, close gaps 9. I-80 Convert existing HOV lanes to express lanes 4.B.8-3

4 Planning Committee STAFF REPORT May 3, 2017 Page 4 of 5 The Action Plan As noted above, Plan Bay Area 2040 includes a new element called the Action Plan (Chapter 5). The Action Plan recommends: Housing Production, Preservation and Production 1. Strengthening and expanding existing regional housing initiatives. 2. More ambitious housing policy initiates at the state, regional, and local levels. 3. Creating a multi-sector blue-ribbon committee to identify game-changing solutions to the regions chronic housing affordability challenge. The Committee for Affordable and Sustainable Accommodations (CASA) will explore replication of the region s self-help successes in generating transportation funds, with new local fund sources aimed at housing. Economic Development 4. Establish a regional Economic Development District to advance regional solutions to business expansions and retention, workforce training, housing and workspace, and infrastructure improvements. 5. Strengthen middle-wage job career paths for goods movement through implementation of recommendations from recent freight movement studies. 6. Increase core capacity transit access to growing job centers. Resilience 7. Provide public outreach support and technical assistance to implement the recommendations of the Adapting to Rising Tides program prepared by the Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC). 8. Develop a regional governance strategy for climate adaptation projects to manage, coordinate, and implement regional and local projects related to sea level rise. 9. As with housing, create new funding sources for retrofit of buildings, and construction of infrastructure projects that protect against flooding, earthquakes, and exposure to environmental health risks. 10. Establish a Regional Advance Mitigation Program (RAMP) that pools off-site compensatory mitigation lands for multiple infrastructure projects well in advance of project delivery. 4.B.8-4

5 Planning Committee STAFF REPORT May 3, 2017 Page 5 of 5 Comments on Plan Bay Area 2040 The Planning Committee directed staff to prepare a draft comment letter for Authority review. will be handed out at the meeting. Staff s comments will spanaddress the forecast, transportation investments, the housing forecast, and evolving transportthe incommute from San Joaquin. Staff seeks recommends that the Authority authorize the Executive Director to approval to transmit the comments letter shown in Attachment A to MTC for consideration in the Finalregarding Draft Plan Bay Area B.8-5

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7 ATTACHMENT A COMMISSIONERS Tom Butt, Chair Federal Glover, Vice Chair Janet Abelson Newell Arnerich Loella Haskew David Hudson Karen Mitchoff Julie Pierce Kevin Romick Robert Taylor Dave Trotter Randell H. Iwasaki, Executive Director May 17, 2017 Steve Heminger Executive Director Metropolitan Transportation Commission 375 Beale Street, Ste. 800 San Francisco, CA Subject: CCTA Comments on MTC s Draft 2017 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) Plan Bay Area 2040 Dear Mr. Heminger: The Contra Costa Transportation Authority (CCTA) appreciates the enormous effort that MTC has undertaken during the past two years to develop the Draft 2017 RTP (Plan Bay Area 2040), which responds to SB 375 through the Bay Region s first update of the Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) adopted in the 2013 RTP. As one of nine Bay Area Congestion Management Agencies (CMAs), CCTA has enjoyed working with you through the Bay Area Partnership to help shape the Plan. We especially wish to thank your staff for keeping us fully apprised of the development of each chapter of the Plan as it progressed. We now wish to take this opportunity to offer comments on the Draft RTP, specifically with regard to the transportation investments, the housing forecast, and the incommute from San Joaquin. Transportation Investments We concur with the financially constrained list of projects included in the Plan. We worked with your staff to develop this list beginning back in In the summer of 2016, the list was expanded to include new projects to be funded through Measure X, the half-percent sales tax measure proposed in Contra Costa for the November 2016 ballot. After the election, MTC staff said that they would only include funding for measures that passed. Therefore, Contra Costa s projects had to be removed Oak Road Suite 100 Walnut Creek CA PHONE: FAX: Last December, we worked closely with your staff to remove some, but not all of the Measure X projects. We did manage to keep some of them in the Plan by trimming the budget for other projects. Consequently, PBA 2040 includes a downsized (two-lane) connector road between Vasco Road and Byron Highway near Byron Airport (formerly the Airport Connector), and it includes a new transit center in Brentwood. These two projects are important for safety, mobility, and to support transit service to future PDAs in East County. 4.B.8-7

8 Mr. Steve Heminger May 17, 2017 Page 2 While we would have preferred keeping all of the Measure X projects in the RTP, we understand that MTC must adhere to federal guidelines, and therefore cannot include those projects in the financially constrained scenario. Land Use Projections Last December, we voiced concerns about the Draft Preferred Scenario, which assumed Contra Costa would remain housing rich and jobs poor. Your staff responded favorably by reducing the housing forecast, and increasing the number of jobs. One of the Authority s transportation strategies is to improve the jobs/housing balance in Contra Costa, by adding higher-wage jobs near housing, and bringing smart jobs into PDAs. GoMentum station in North Concord is a good example of our efforts to bring smart jobs to Contra Costa. In draft PBA 2040, MTC proposes a housing forecast for Contra Costa that, when compared to the 2013 RTP, would increase the number of dwelling units (DUs) added between 2010 and 2040 from 89,000 to 100,000 DUs. We believe that this amount of growth is achievable. It would require annual production of about 3,000 DUs per year. We did not achieve that level of production during 2010 to 2015, when housing production averaged 1,800 DUs per year, well below this target. But with the strong economic recovery underway, we are, in 2016, back in the 3,000 DUs. We are concerned; however, that the goal of having 70 percent of new homes in Priority Development Areas (PDAs) may not be realistic. ABAG s recent housing report for 2016 indicated that only 26 percent of new housing in Contra Costa was built in PDAs, and those units were mostly market rate. Only a very small fraction was affordable. Regional Forecast for Housing Growth Turning now to the regional housing forecast found in draft PBA 2040, we want to express our concern that these forecasts are probably unachievable. To achieve the forecast of Bay Area housing production, the region s production level would need to outpace anything we ve seen in the recent past. We also question MTC s theory that more housing around the Bay will stem the flow of commuters coming in from San Joaquin and other outlying counties, or whether more housing will help reduce traffic. The Draft Plan assumes construction of 817,700 DUs between 2010 and [Land Use Modeling Supplemental Report, March 2017, p. 13]. Looking at past annual housing production, we believe that this rate of production is unreasonably high. Over the timeframe of the RTP, it amounts to 157,000 more DUs, or 24 percent more than MTC and ABAG had assumed for the 2013 RTP, yet the timeframe hasn t changed; it is still for 2010 to 2040 (the 2013 RTP assumed 660,000 new DUs for the same time period). Looking at past housing production, only 79,151 DUs were constructed in the Bay Region since 2010, for an average production rate of 15,830 DUs per year [Caltrans S:\05-PC Packets\2017\05\Authority\08 Attach A 2017 RTP Comments.v2.docx 4.B.8-8

9 Mr. Steve Heminger May 17, 2017 Page 3 Economic Analysis Branch, California County-level Economic Forecast, The California Economic Forecast, Oct. 2016]. The remaining balance of 738,549 DUs would have to be constructed in the next 25 years at an average annual rate of 29,542 DUs, year in and year out. Housing production rates this high have not been seen in the Bay Region for three decades. There was the housing production boom of 1988, when 37,785 new units were constructed. Another peak occurred in 2000, when Bay Area production reached 28,652 DUs. Those peaks were single peaks amidst periods of much lower average rates of building. More likely than not, those peaks are the last of the building fury that accompanied our past economic booms and those economic booms were accompanied by significant traffic growth. Every new DU generates more vehicle trips, so the higher the number of new units, the more traffic it will generate. Recent Trends, Economic Cycles, and Comparisons to State-level Forecast Data all Point to Lower Housing Growth in the Future Taking cyclical recessions into account the last one bringing housing production to a new low of 7,205 units in 2009 we feel compelled to question the credibility of the new forecast. While no one wants to talk about another Great Recession, MTC should at least take into account, in its forecast, the economic cycles that have strongly influenced housing production during the past three decades. MTC s housing forecast is also dramatically higher that the State s. According to Caltrans and the Department of Finance, housing production in the Bay Region will peak at 22,428 in 2017, then slowly fade down to the 16,000 s by The State forecasts total housing production at 552,851 between 2010 and 2040, 48 percent below the PBA 2040 forecast. Why is MTC s housing forecast so different from the State s? The Bay Region s historic failure to keep pace with housing need [Draft PBA 2040, p. 70] will not be addressed by assuming away the housing shortage. If past trends continue, with each passing year, our housing report card will show that PBA 2040 production rates are unachievable. We support MTC s multi-pronged Action Plan [Section 5] for addressing housing affordability, and if asked, we will gladly serve on and support the Committee for Affordable and Sustainable Accommodations (CASA). We don t; however, see the benefit of putting the Action Plan on shaky footing right out of the gate. In view of the information cited here, we therefore ask that you add a caveat to PBA 2040 to clearly state that the housing forecast is essentially a control total that might not be achievable in the timeframe of the RTP. Stemming the Flow of In-commuters In response to SB 375, MTC is committed to housing the region s population by providing more affordable housing so that workers of all incomes can live in the Bay S:\05-PC Packets\2017\05\Authority\08 Attach A 2017 RTP Comments.v2.docx 4.B.8-9

10 Mr. Steve Heminger May 17, 2017 Page 4 Area. While this is a laudable goal, we are concerned that things might not be headed in that direction. Housing prices outside the region have always been, and will, in our view, continue to be softer than in the Bay Region. Newcomers to the region will, unfortunately, continue to drive til they qualify. The lure of owning one s own home, and having to suffer a long commute to afford it, is not going to go away anytime soon. One major source of traffic from outside the region is the I-580 freeway from Tracy to Livermore. Over the Altamont Pass, daily traffic volumes have been inching up at one percent per year between 2013 and This route also now has two express lanes, where congestion-based pricing allows commuters to pay to enter the HOV lanes. Also, there are plans for a BART extension and an ACE train connection. In case the regional housing strategy does not stem the inflow, we encourage MTC to partner with CCTA and ACTC in continuing to examine this corridor and develop strategies that will address the increase in single-occupant vehicles (SOVs) over the Altamont Pass. If MTC really wants to stop the in-commute from growing, then something major would need to be done to discourage single-occupant drivers from using westbound I-580 during the morning commute. What would it take to stem the flow of SOVs and encourage carpooling and transit usage for the in-commute? Open-road tolling? Metering? These are probably not realistic today, but might be in the future. More feasible would be convenient transit and carpooling alternatives. Or, an alternative route; the Authority continues to work on a public-private partnership to build the SR 239 freeway from Tracy to Brentwood as a toll facility that would divert traffic off of I These strategies, rather than imagining that we have more affordable housing in the Bay Region, have a better chance of discouraging in-commuters from driving alone, and they offer a more feasible alternative for achieving the SB 375 goal of housing the region s population. People would still be coming into the Bay Region to work, but the number of vehicles coming in could stop increasing. Strengthening Our Partnership with MTC to Leverage Future Technologies The Authority is committed to playing a leading role in the advancement of innovative new technologies to address our transportation challenges. For example, our Innovate I-680 initiative envisions in-vehicle ICM, bus on shoulder, and Shared Autonomous Vehicles (SAV) serving new Park and Ride Lots. Ultimately, we want to make the I-680 corridor in Contra Costa the foremost testing ground for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles. We invite you to come to Bishop Ranch and take a ride in one of our SAVs that are currently in the beta-testing phase. Deployment of SAVs throughout the I-680 corridor can address the first/last mile transit challenge. S:\05-PC Packets\2017\05\Authority\08 Attach A 2017 RTP Comments.v2.docx 4.B.8-10

11 Mr. Steve Heminger May 17, 2017 Page 5 We hope that you will join our effort to model the future, by taking into account all of the new technologies that are in play today and hold great promise for tomorrow. We have met with your modeling staff and look forward to forging a new relationship that will result in a new modeling approach that both MTC and the CMAs can apply to predict the future. * * * Thank you for this opportunity to comment on the Draft Plan Bay Area The Authority looks forward to working with MTC and ABAG as the new RTP is adopted and implemented. Sincerely, Randell H. Iwasaki Executive Director Attach: Housing Table File: cc: Bay Area CMA Directors S:\05-PC Packets\2017\05\Authority\08 Attach A 2017 RTP Comments.v2.docx 4.B.8-11

12 Attachment SUMMARY OF HOUSING PRODUCTION FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION Source: Caltrans Economic Analysis Branch, California County-Level Economic Forecast, Report by the California Economic Forecast, Oct Years When Annual Average for PBA 2040 was Met or Year Total BAY AREA Exceeded* , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,205 Cumulative Total: 2010 to ,188 10, ,385 20, ,532 36, ,018 58, ,028 79, ,603 Total 1988 to ,317 Annual Average 22,382 *Annual average housing production for PBA 2040 is 29,542 per year from 2016 to 2040 based on a forecast of 817,000 new DUs from 2010 to 2039, and past production of 79,193 DUs from 2010 to B.8-12