Southwest Business Forum. Business Research Division Leeds School of Business University of Colorado

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2 Southwest Business Forum

3 Colorado Population, Employment, Income and Prices

4 Change in Population Change in Colorado Population Thousands Among top 7 states for percentage growth 9 th fastest for absolute growth 22 nd -most population in U.S. Continued net migration into the state 83% of population in 12 Front Range counties Source: Colorado Demography Office.

5 Colorado Employment Workers Added Thousands Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

6 Employment Recovery National vs. State Percent 1.0 Employment Recovery: National vs. State Colorado US Number of Months Since Peak Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

7 Employment Change Employment in Thousands 2,450 2,440 Govt Finance Other Mfg Mining Info ,430 L&H 2,420 2,410 2,400 2,390 PBS Const TTU EHS Total jobs gained: 61,600 Net change: 61,300 Total jobs lost: 300 2, ,370 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (NSA).

8 Jobless Claims: US vs. Colorado Initial Claims 1,000, ,000 Initial Claims US Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Continuing Claims 8,000,000 6,000, , ,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 0 Initial Claims Colorado Jobless Claims Continuing Claims 10, ,000 8,000 Initial Claims Continuing Claims 80,000 6,000 60,000 4,000 40,000 2,000 20,000 0 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 0 Source: US Department of Labor and the Employment and Training Administration (NSA).

9 Colorado Per Capita Personal Income By MSA, 2012 United States $38,968 Colorado $40,556 Boulder Denver-Aurora-Broomfield Fort Collins-Loveland Colorado Springs Grand Junction Pueblo Greeley $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2012 annual data.

10 Total Nonfarm Wages, 4Q Rolling Sum Colorado $ Billions Q Q Q Q Q Q Source : Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.

11 Consumer Price Index All Items Percent CPI Percent Change, United States Denver- Boulder- Greeley % Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

12 Agriculture Photo courtesy of Laurie Purcell.

Agriculture Photo courtesy of Cheryl Jacobson. $ Millions 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 Gross Farm Revenue 2005-2014 Net Income $8,377.

13 Agriculture Photo courtesy of Cheryl Jacobson. $ Millions 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 Gross Farm Revenue Net Income $8, ,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 Farm Production Expenses 2,000 1, Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

14 Crop Receipts and Gross Farm Revenue $ Millions 3,000 2,500 Cash Receipts from Crops $2,331 $ Millions 10,000 9,000 8,000 Gross Farm Revenue Net Income $1,477 2,000 7,000 6,000 1,500 5,000 1,000 4,000 3,000 Farm Production Expenses 500 2,000 1, Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

15 Natural Resources and Mining Photos courtesy of coloradopeakpolitics.com, flickr.com

16 Commodity Prices, December 2013 Averages Compared to Five-Year High and Low Corn ($/bushel) Wheat ($/bushel) Low $3.14 Current Price $4.14 $6.43 High $8.58 $3.88 $9.18 $9.75 Molybdenum ($/pound) $8.55 $33.75 $99.36 Oil ($/barrel) $33.98 $ Source: Bloomberg.

17 Natural Gas Production Billions of Cubic Feet 1,800 1,600 Natural Gas Production ,629 Fifth-largest producing state 1,400 Niobrara formation 1,200 1,000 Net exporter of natural gas 800 Production boosted by 600 Horizontal drilling 400 Hydraulic fracturing Total value of production stagnant due to prices Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

18 Natural Resources and Mining Output and Value 2005= Physical Output Index Crude Oil Natural Gas Coal = Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, Colorado Mining Association, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee Value of Production Index Crude Oil Coal Natural Gas

19 Natural Resources and Mining Valuation and Employment 2013 Value of Resources (In Millions of Dollars) $14.7 Billion Thousands 5 Natural Resources and Mining Workers Added, Oil $5, Natural Gas $5, Minerals $1,700 Coal $1,157 CO2 $380 Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee

20 Construction Photo Courtesy

21 Housing Units vs. Households Annual Change 70,000 60,000 50,000 Housing Units Households 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Source: Colorado Demography Office.

22 Colorado Foreclosures Number of Occupied Units per Foreclosure Colorado Occupied Units per Completed Foreclosure Boulder Denver La Plata Montezuma Colorado Delta Weld Pueblo Montrose Garfield Archuleta Q Q ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Source: Colorado Division of Housing, Q2 2011, Q1 2012, and Q Reports.

23 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices 1-year Home Price Change, September 2013 New York Minneapolis Boston Denver Dallas Miami Seattle Chicago Detroit Atlanta Las Vegas San Francisco 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Percent Change Source: Standard & Poor s (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

24 Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index Denver-Aurora-Lakewood FHFA Home Prices by MSA Q Q Colorado 5.8% FHFA Home Prices by MSA CAGR Q Q Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Colorado 2.2% Boulder Boulder Greeley Fort Collins Colorado Springs Grand Junction Pueblo Greeley Fort Collins Colorado Springs Grand Junction Pueblo Percent Percent Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Indexes.

25 Residential Building Permits 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Residential Building Permits Multifamily Single Family 33, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

26 Value of Construction $ Millions 18,000 16,000 $15.1 B 14,000 Nonbuilding 12,000 Nonresidential 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Residential 2, Sources: McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge Research and Analytics and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

27 Construction Employment Thousands Construction Workers Added Index of Construction Employment vs. Total Employment 2005= Total Employment Construction Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

28 Goods-Producing Employment Goods-Producing Share of Colorado Employment Thousands 20 Goods-Producing Workers Added Manufacturing 5.6% Construction 5.3% Natural Resources and Mining 1.3% Services-Producing 87.8% Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

29 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

30 Retail Trade Sales Colorado Taxable Retail Sales 12-Month Rolling Sum 12-Month Rolling Sum, $ Millions Percent Change Colorado Retail Trade Sales Nominal Growth Real Growth Sources: Colorado Department of Revenue and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

DIA Enplanements and Deplanements Millions 60 DIA Enplanements and Deplanements, 2005-2014 52.

31 DIA Enplanements and Deplanements Millions 60 DIA Enplanements and Deplanements, Sources: Denver International Airport and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

Transit Center Project Frontier Sources:

32 DIA Airlines DIA Airline Market Share Southwest Other United Three new international destinations in 2013 Fort McMurray, Canada Tokyo Jamaica Hotel and Transit Center Project Frontier Sources: Denver International Airport and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

33 Professional and Business Services Source: localtvkdvr.files.wordpress.com.

34 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services PST Employment Thousands 12.0 PST Workers Added Other 31% Legal 10% Architectural and Engineering 23% Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting 11% Computer Systems Design 25% Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

35 Professional and Business Services Thousands Professional and Business Services Workers Added Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

36 Education and Health Services

37 Health Care Services Ambulatory Hospitals Nursing Care Social Assistance Health Care Services Employment Growth, Annualized, % 2.5% 3.7% 4.5% 11% of Colorado jobs Consistent employment growth PPACA upheld by Supreme Court Entitlement enrollment growing Insurance coverage expanding CAGR 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

Increase in the number of persons eligible for

38 Health Care Services Major Trends Aging population Increasing rates of obesity and chronic diseases Increase in the number of persons eligible for health insurance Shortages in the healthcare work force

39 Leisure and Hospitality Photo courtesy of: snowboardinginsider.net.

40 Accommodation Accommodation Workers Added Thousands According to PKF Hospitality Research Denver Occupancy Rate: +1% RevPAR: +7.7% Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

Colorado Park Visits Millions 7.0 Colorado Park Visits 2005-2014 6.0 6.1 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.

41 Colorado Park Visits Millions 7.0 Colorado Park Visits Photo Courtesy of: worldsbestspot.com Sources: National Park Service and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

Skier Visits Millions 14.0 Colorado Skier Visits 2005-2014 12.0 11.9 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.

42 Skier Visits Millions 14.0 Colorado Skier Visits Photo Courtesy of: steamboatpowdercats.com Sources: Colorado Ski Country USA and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

43 Retail Gasoline Prices $ per Gallon $4.17 U.S. $4.08 Colorado 3.5 Colorado United States $3.35 U.S. $3.09 Colorado Source: Energy Information Administration (All Grades/All Formulations). Retrieved December 30, 2013.

44 Leisure and Hospitality Thousands L&H Workers Added What to look forward to in the future: Opening of 1895 Union Station (mid-2014) New Developments in the Denver Museum of Nature & Science The Rooftop, at Coors Field (April 2014) The men s Lacrosse World Championship (July 2014) Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

45 Government

46 Government Employment State (General) 9% State (Education) 16% Federal 13% Local (General) 30% Local (Education) 32%

47 Colorado General Fund Gross Revenue (excluding reserves, diversions, and transfers) $ Millions $10,000 General Fund Projections $ Millions $9,900 Colorado General Fund $9,500 $9,000 $8,500 $8,000 $7,500 $7,000 September 2013 September 2012 March 2012 September 2011 March 2013 $9,400 $8,900 $8,400 $7,900 $7,400 $6,900 $6,400 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 Source: Colorado Office of State Budgeting and Planning, excluding reserves, diversions, and transfers, June FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015

48 Percent Growth in Colorado General Fund Revenues, FY Individual Income Tax Corporate Income Tax Total Other Sales Percent Change Source: Colorado Office of State Budgeting and Planning.

49 Services-Producing Employment Services-Producing Employment Gov t 16% [CATEGOR Y NAME] 12% TTU 18% Thousands Services-Producing Workers Added Other 4% L&H 12% Info 3% Financial Activities 6% EHS 12% PBS 16% Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

Export promotion policies and free-trade agreements IMF Global Output

50 International Trade Factors Impacting Trade Growing demand in developing countries European debt crisis Foreign exchange rates Export promotion policies and free-trade agreements IMF Global Output Growth Forecast 3.6% in 2014 Photos courtesy of aboutsmallcap.com, steamykitchen.com.

51 Colorado Exports $ Millions 12,000 Value of Colorado Exports, ,000 $9,793 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Sources: World Institute for Strategic Economic Research and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

52 State Factors Colorado outperforms nation in employment growth Weather a factor Home prices rising slowly, steadily Growing population Falling unemployment

53 Colorado Economic Indicators Year Consumer Price Inflation Percent Change Retail Sales Percent Change Personal Income Unemployment Rate Percent Change Employment 2011 a a a Historical data.

54 LBCI Q Q Index (50=Neutral) Leeds Business Confidence Index Recession 18 months 25 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 2014

U.S. and Colorado Economies Q1 2004 Q1 2014 Index (50=Neutral) 75 National and State Expectations 70 65 60 Colorado 55

55 U.S. and Colorado Economies Q Q Index (50=Neutral) 75 National and State Expectations Colorado United States Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 2014

Campbell Southern Colorado Fred Crowley Tom Zwirlein Kit Carson

57 Thank You Around the State Northern Colorado Martin Shields Boulder Jennifer Pinsonneault Mesa County Kelly Flenniken Mariah Campbell Southern Colorado Fred Crowley Tom Zwirlein Kit Carson County Rol Hudler La Plata County Robert Sonora Pueblo County Richard Werner

More of the Same? Southwest Business Forum

More of the Same? Southwest Business Forum Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Associate Dean, Leeds School of Business Executive Director, Business Research Division January 4, 2017 Colorado