Southwest Colorado Business Forum Business Research Division Leeds School of Business

Transcription

1 Southwest Colorado Business Forum 2008

2 Dr. Richard L. Wobbekind Associate Dean of MBA and Enterprise Programs and Executive Director of the Business Research Division, Leeds School of Business

3 Colorado Population, Employment, and Prices

4 Change in Population Thousands Change in Population Net Migration 62.5 Natural Change = Index of Population Change Natural Change Net Migration Source: Department of Local Affairs, CO BEO Committee.

5 Population and Employment Percent Change Resident Population Growth Colorado United States Percent Change U.S. and Colorado Nonfarm Employment Colorado United States U.S. Unemployment Percent United States Colorado Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CO BEO Committee. Increased population Slower employment growth Higher unemployment

6 Consumer Price Index 5.0 Percent Denver-Boulder- Greeley United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

7 Colorado Then and Now Rate Rank Real state GDP growth 9.4% 4.9% 2 10 Personal income growth Per capita personal income growth Employment growth Population growth Note: Rankings include District of Columbia. Source: Department of Local Affairs, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

8 Agriculture

9 Livestock Cash Receipts 4,000 Livestock Cash Receipts $3,777 Highlights Largest ag sector $ Millions 3,000 2,000 1,000 Declining cattle numbers Higher feedstuff costs Cash receipts slipping Source: Colorado Agricultural Statistic Service, CO BEO Committee.

10 Crop Receipts $ Millions 2,400 2,000 1,600 1, Cash Receipts from Crops $1,966 Highlights Water restrictions Banner 07 wheat crop Fuel and fertilizer costs Corn demand for ethanol Source: Colorado Agricultural Statistic Service, CO BEO Committee.

11 Realized Gross Farm Revenue and Net Income Gross Farm Revenue Percent of Receipts $ Millions 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 $6,843 Realized Net Income Farm Production Expenses $843 $6,000 Livestock 55% 4% Government Payments 12% Services/ Forestry 29% Crops Source: Colorado Agricultural Statistic Service, CO BEO Agriculture Committee.

12 Natural Resources and Mining

13 Natural Gas Production Cubic Feet (Billions) 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Natural Gas 1, = Physical Output Index Natural Gas Coal Crude Oil 0 50 Source: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Minerals Fuel Activity Reports, CO BEO Committee.

14 Crude Oil Production 25 Crude Oil = Physical Output Index Natural Gas Barrels (Millions) Coal Crude Oil 0 50 Source: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Minerals Fuel Activity Reports, CO BEO Committee.

15 Coal Production Short Tons (Millions) Coal = Physical Output Index Natural Gas Coal Crude Oil 0 50 Source: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Minerals Fuel Activity Reports, CO BEO Committee.

16 Valuation of Natural Resources and Mining 2008 Value Total $11.6 million 2000= Index of Value Minerals Nat. Gas $6, Crude Oil 225 Natural Gas Crude Oil $1,659 Minerals $2,039 Coal $932 CO 2 $ Source: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Minerals Fuel Activity Reports, CO BEO Committee.

17 Natural Resources and Mining Employment Thousands Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, CO BEO Committee.

18 Construction and Completion

19 Value of Construction Residential $ Millions 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Residential $5, = Value of Construction Index Nonbuilding Residential Nonresidential Source: F.W. Dodge Company, CO Contractors Association, US Census Bureau, CO BEO Committee.

20 Residential Real Estate Trends Highlights Home sales remain sluggish Subprime market Foreclosures Residential permits down Rental vacancy rates low

21 Value of Construction Nonresidential Nonresidential Value of Construction Index $ Millions 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 $4, = Nonbuilding Residential 2, , Nonresidential Source: F.W. Dodge Company, CO Contractors Association, US Census Bureau, CO BEO Committee.

22 Commercial Real Estate Trends Highlights Several sectors driving growth Impact of declining residential Vacancy rates down

23 Index of Housing Prices Colorado Metro Areas Q32007 HPI Growth from Q32006 Boulder Colorado Springs Denver-Aurora Ft. Collins Grand Junction Greeley Pueblo -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% One Year Growth Grand Junction and Boulder strong growth (14.0% and 3.1%) Greeley= -.9% Colorado = 2.2% Boulder Colorado Springs Denver-Aurora Ft. Collins Grand Junction Greeley Pueblo Q32007 HPI Average Growth from Q Ten Year CAGR Denver/Boulder and Grand Junction driving state growth 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.

24 Colorado - Total Value of Construction $ Millions 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Source: F.W. Dodge Company, CO Contractors Association, US Census Bureau, CO BEO Committee. Total $12,487 Nonbuilding Nonresidential Residential

25 Manufacturing

26 Nondurable Goods Employment 70 Nondurable Goods Highlights Thousands One-third of mfg employment Largest U.S. beer producer Fewer beverage jobs 20 Printing and publishing losses 10 Bioscience volatility 0 Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, CO BEO Committee.

27 Durable Goods Employment Durable Goods 93.3 Highlights Decline in computer mfg Fabricated metals productivity gains Thousands United Launch Alliance creation Personal jet aircraft niche Impacted by construction 0 Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, CO BEO Committee.

28 Manufacturing Employment Thousands Employment = Index of Colorado Manufacturing Employment vs. Total Employment Total Employment Manufacturing Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, CO BEO Committee.

29 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

30 Colorado Retail Trade Sales Growth vs. Real Growth Percent Change Rate of Growth 3.6% Real Growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Colorado Department of Revenue, CO BEO Committee.

31 DIA Enplanements and Deplanements DIA Enplanements and Deplanements Millions Source: Denver International Airport, CO BEO Committee.

32 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Employment 500 Total 436 Thousands Utilities Transportation Retail Wholesale Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, CO BEO Committee.

33 Information

34 Telecommunications Thousands Telecom Employment 27.8 Index of Information Employment 1998= Other Telecom Publishing Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, CO BEO Committee.

35 Information Employment 120 Thousands Total 76.6 Other Telecom 20 0 Publishing Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, CO BEO Committee.

36 Professional and Business Services Administrative and Support Management (Admin) Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (PST) Management of Companies and Enterprises (MCE)

37 Professional and Business Services Employment Thousands Total Admin and Waste Management PST Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, CO BEO Committee.

38 Educational and Health Services

39 Healthcare Services Health Services Average Employment Growth Colorado Average: 1.6% Composition of Sector 216,900 Employees in 2008 Ambulatory Hospital 2.7% 2.4% Ambulatory 41% Nursing Care Social Assistance 1.9% 3.5% Nursing Care 17% Social Assistance 17% Hospital 25% Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, CO BEO Committee.

40 Educational and Health Services Employment Thousands Supersector Employment Total 248 Educational Health Index of Educational and Health Services Employment 1998=100 Educational Health Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, CO BEO Committee.

41 Leisure and Hospitality

42 Conventions and Meetings Highlights 2008 bookings up 16% Coming to Denver: Democratic National Convention Frozen Four Hockey Tournament National Performing Arts Convention Congressional Medal of Honor Society

43 Colorado Lift Tickets Sold Lift Tickets Sold 1954 to 2008 Lift Tickets Sold 1998 to Millions Millions Source: Colorado Ski Country USA, CO BEO Committee. 0

44 Outdoor Colorado Thousands 6,200 5,900 5,600 5,300 5,000 4,700 4,400 4,100 3,800 3,500 3,200 Visits to National Parks in Colorado Source: National Park Service. 5,507.5

45 Leisure and Hospitality Employment Thousands Total Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Food Services Accommodations Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, CO BEO Committee.

46 Government Source:

47 Local Government Employment 240 Local Employment = Index of Government Employment Thousands Local State Federal 0 90 Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, CO BEO Committee.

48 Total Civilian Government Employment Thousands Total Local State Federal Civilian Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, CO BEO Committee.

49 International Trade

50 Colorado Agricultural Exports In Millions Meats, $ Feeds and Fodders, $80.60 Fruits and Vegetables, $89.10 Wheat, $ Hides & Skins, $ Source: Colorado Department of Agriculture, CO BEO Committee. Other, $ Feed Grains & Products, $127.40

51 Value of Colorado Exports Fiscal Years $ Millions 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 $8, Source: World Institute for Strategic Economic Research, CO BEO Committee.

52 Summary Percentage Change in Colorado Employment By Decade Percentage Change s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, CO BEO Committee.

53 New Jobs Created in Goods-Producing Sectors 5,000 3,000 5, Jobs Employees 1,000-1,000-3,000-1,000-4,000-5,000 Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Source: CO BEO Committee.

54 New Jobs Created in Service-Producing Sectors +43,300 Jobs Employees 18,000 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3, ,000 5, ,500 8,000 TTU Information Financial PBS Edu. and Health Care Source: CO BEO Committee ,000 Leisure and Hospitality 2,000 Other Services 5,100 Government

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