Hillsborough County Population and Employment Projections and Allocations DECEMBER 2017

Transcription

1 Hillsborough County Population and Employment Projections and Allocations DECEMBER 2017

2 Presentation Overview Overview of the Allocation Process Population and Employment Projections Trend Analysis 2045 Trend and Scenario Analysis Next Steps 2045 Population and Employment Projections

3 Overview of the Allocation Process

4 Population and Employment Allocation Update the projections, horizon date and underlying assumptions Understand recent demographic trends and how they may impact Hillsborough County in the future Grounded in a real estate market analysis Look at scenarios of how policy and infrastructure changes impact where population and jobs go Input from all 4 local governments throughout 2045 Population and Employment Projections

5 Results Trend analysis of demographic shifts and market and real estate forecasts Assessment of scenarios for whether they achieve our goals: Quality of Life Fiscal Sustainability Economic prosperity Responsible Growth Consistency of Action Updated population and job projections to be utilized for future planning efforts 2045 Population and Employment Projections

6 Population and Employment Allocation How much will we grow? Where will growth go? What is the trend? How will different infrastructure and policy decisions impact that trend? Where do we want growth to go? What facilities will be needed? Population & Employment Projections Trend and Market Analysis Alternative Allocation Scenarios Hybrid Scenario Comprehensive Plan MPO LRTP Master Plans CIP 2045 Population and Employment Projections

7 Population and Employment Projections

8 Control Totals Projected population and employment for 2045 as well as interim years Allows us to compare different scenarios in a uniform way Can we accommodate that growth? Do we want to? How? Where? Conditions change = plans and projections change 2045 Population and Employment Projections

9 Population 2045 Population Projections 2,700,000 2,500,000 2,474,800 2,300,000 Population 2,100,000 1,900,000 2,140,363 2,007,100 BEBR Low BEBR Medium BEBR High W & P 1,700,000 1,500,000 1,562,000 1,300, Population and Employment Projections

10 Shorter Term Projections BEBR 1,466,900 1,602,900 1,722,900 W&P 1,466,512 1,593,378 1,727, Population and Employment Projections

11 Employment 2045 Employment Projections 1,450,000 1,376,519 1,350,000 1,250,000 1,224,331 Employment 1,150,000 1,164, W&P 1,050, , , Population and Employment Projections

12 Trend Analysis

13 Trend Analysis Based on historical growth trend Follows Future Land Use Plan/Map Supported by building permit data Considers latest demographic data Real estate market analysis consultant review Draft data/maps attached 2045 Population and Employment Projections

14 2045 Trend and Scenario Analysis

15 2045 Trend and Scenario Analysis What do you want to get out of it? Test and update assumptions from Imagine 2040 Test impact of different infrastructure decisions 2045 Population and Employment Projections

16 Next Steps

17 Timeline Trend and Market Analysis early 2018 Alternative Scenarios Spring 2018 Outreach Summer 2018 Hybrid Scenario Fall Population and Employment Projections

18 Attachments Draft Trend Analysis Maps

19 Land Use Trends Developed land: 1960 Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections

20 Land Use Trends Developed land: 1970 Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections

21 Land Use Trends Developed land: 1980 Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections

22 Land Use Trends Developed land: 1990 Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections

23 Land Use Trends Developed land: 2000 Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections

24 Land Use Trends Developed land: 2010 Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections

25 Land Use Trends Developed land: Present Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections

26 Land Use Trends Vacant 8% County Land Use Agricultural 25% Single Family Residential 21% Commercial 2% Right of Way 1% Park / Open Space 6% Industrial 7% Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections Office 1% Multi Family Residential 3% Government Owned 26%

27 Residential: Key Findings Steady, continuous growth Trend toward smaller lot sizes Unit type balance remains constant Seasonal housing is concentrated in the south 2045 Population and Employment Projections

28 Residential Growth Trends Dwelling Units 560,000 14% 550, , ,000 12% 10% 12% Increase from Dwelling Units 520, , , , , , ,000 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1.14% Annual Average Growth DU Growth Since 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population American and Community Employment Survey 5 Year Projections Estimates

29 Residential Growth Trends Housing Type Multi Family 29% Mobile Home or Other 8% Single Family Attached 7% Single Family 56% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates 2045 Population and Employment Projections

30 Residential Growth Trends Housing Type 56.3% 56.2% 29.1% 29.4% 9.0% 7.7% 5.6% 6.7% Single Family Multi Family Mobile Home or Other Single Family Attached Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates Population and Employment Projections

31 Residential Growth Trends Single Family Residential Lot Size Countywide 0.66 Acres Source: Hillsborough County MPO Present 2045 Population and Employment Projections

32 Employment and Activities: Key Findings Bulk of employment is in professional, office, services, retail Strong growth in employment since 2010 Strong growth in floor space since 2000, leveling off in 2010 Employee space utilization is becoming more efficient FAR has leveled off 2045 Population and Employment Projections

33 Employment Growth Trends Total Employment 700,000 Total Employment 600, , , , , ,000 24% increase Census Bureau, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Heated square footage reported in Hillsborough County Property Appraiser parcel database Population and Employment Projections 200, ,000 0 Office + Commercial 149, ,100 30% increase Industrial 84,20086,100 2% increase Institutional

34 Employment Growth Trends Floor Area (millions of square feet) Floor Area (millions of square feet) % increase 29% increase % increase % increase Census Bureau, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Heated square footage reported in Hillsborough County Property Appraiser parcel database Population and Employment Projections 0.0 Office Commercial Industrial Institutional

35 Employment Growth Trends Non Residential Intensity (FAR) Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections

36 Employment Growth Trends Commercial Character Source: Hillsborough County MPO 2045 Population and Employment Projections

37 Population and Demographic Trends: Key Findings Hillsborough population share is stable Pasco s share is growing, Pinellas declining The county is trending older Much larger share of millennials in multi family housing Average household size on a slight decline Significant patterns in student enrollment (suburban), zero car households (urban) 2045 Population and Employment Projections

38 Population and Demographic Trends Age Cohorts 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Under and Over 2045 Population and Employment Projections Source: Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 (Machine readable database), Minneapolis, Minnesota: Minnesota Population Center (producer and distributor), and BEBR

39 Population and Demographic Trends Age Cohorts 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Under and Over Population and Employment Projections Source: Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 (Machine readable database), Minneapolis, Minnesota: Minnesota Population Center (producer and distributor), and BEBR

40 Population and Demographic Trends Age Cohorts by Housing Type 38% 19% 21% 21% 20% 12% 15% 8% 6% 7% 7% 7% 5% 4% 4% 7% Under 5 5 to 9 10 to to to to and Up Single Family Multi Family 2045 Population and Employment Projections Source: Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 (Machine readable database), Minneapolis, Minnesota: Minnesota Population Center (producer and distributor), and BEBR

41 Population and Demographic Trends Commute Characteristics Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates 2045 Population and Employment Projections