4.12 POPULATION AND HOUSING

Transcription

1 4.12 POPULATION AND HOUSING INTRODUCTION This section describes the existing socioeconomic conditions, including population, housing, and employment, within the Specific Plan Area and provides an analysis of the potential impacts with implementation of the proposed project. As appropriate, the relevant regulatory requirements and Specific Plan implementation measures are provided to address the environmental effects. The analysis in this section is based on information from: the 2000 Census; the Kern County General Plan Housing Element ; the Kern River Valley Specific Plan Preliminary Economic Overview Kern County, California, prepared by Economics Research Associates, May 2004 and revised October 2004; population and employment projections provided by the Kern Council of Governments (KernCOG), July 2009; and the Regional Housing Needs Assessment and Allocation Plan, prepared by KernCOG, June ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING Regional and Local Setting The Specific Plan Area covers approximately 110,510 acres (173 square miles) in the northeastern portion of Kern County within the Sierra Nevada Mountains, adjacent to the Kern/Tulare County boundary. The Specific Plan Area includes the unincorporated communities of Lake Isabella, Bodfish, Alta Sierra, Wofford Heights, Kernville, Weldon and Onyx, South Lake/Longview, Mountain Mesa, and Squirrel Mountain Valley. These communities are regionally connected to each other and to areas outside of the Specific Plan Area by State Route (SR) 178 and SR 155. SR 178 provides access to and from Bakersfield through the Kern Canyon. SR 178 continues eastward through the Specific Plan Area and connects to the City of Ridgecrest and farther east to Death Valley. SR 155 connects the Valley with Alta Sierra and farther west to the City of Delano. The existing land uses in the Specific Plan Area include non-jurisdictional (government) lands, public facilities, residential, commercial, industrial, resource lands, and undeveloped lands. Table 3-1 in Section 3.0, Project Description, of this Environmental Impact Report (EIR) provides the acreage of the existing land uses in the Specific Plan Area. Currently, land use development in the Kern River Valley area is guided by the Kern County General Plan and two existing specific plans, the South Lake Specific Plan and the Kelso Valley Specific Plan. Refer to Section 4.9., Land Use, of this EIR for a detailed discussion of the existing land uses, proposed land uses, and land use plans applicable to the Specific Plan Area. Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

2 Specific Plan Area Population Analysis Areas and Data Although there are no incorporated cities in the Specific Plan Area, the Specific Plan Area includes eight separate Census Designated Places (CDPs). A CDP is a geographic area comprising a densely settled concentration of population that is not within an incorporated place, but is locally identified by a name. It is a place that is treated similar to a city or municipality by the U.S. Census for the purpose of counting population because it resembles a city in population density and structure. However, a CDP has no separate town rights or a council representation. The eight CDPs within the Specific Plan Area are listed below. The locations of these CDPs are provided in Figure Kernville 2. Wofford Heights 3. Lake Isabella 4. Bodfish 5. Mountain Mesa 6. Squirrel Mountain Valley 7. Weldon (includes South Lake and Kelso Valley) 8. Onyx The remainder of the Specific Plan Area includes other unincorporated County areas that are sparsely populated. According to the Kern River Valley Specific Plan Preliminary Economic Overview Report, as well as the KernCOG statistical data, the Specific Plan Area falls within two Kern County Census Tracts, and The locations of these two census tracts are provided in Figure Although the eight CDPs listed above include almost all of the populated areas in the Specific Plan Area, not all of these CDPs were included in the 1990 Census. In order to maintain consistency with the Kern River Valley Specific Plan Preliminary Economic Overview Report (which also relies on KernCOG statistical information), the two geographic areas (the CDPs and the Census Tracts) were addressed in the demographic analysis provided below. The demographic trends in the area included in Census Tracts and are discussed below using 1990 and 2000 census data (note that this is a larger area than the Specific Plan Area, but in terms of population concentrations, it provides a fair indicator of the Specific Plan Area s characteristics). For the remainder of the analysis, the eight CDPs are discussed using more refined data from the 2000 Census. It should be noted that the slightly larger statistical area included in the CDPs is also consistent with all of the KernCOG projections for the Greater Lake Isabella Planning Area discussed below. Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

3 Kernville Tulare County Kern County Wofford Heights Lake Isabella Bodfish Mountain Mesa Squirrel Mtn. Valley Weldon Onyx LEGEND Specific Plan Boundary SCALE IN MILES Sources: Kern Council of Governments; Northcutt & Associates. KERN RIVER VALLEY SPECIFIC PLAN E N V I R O N M E N T A L I M P A C T R E P O R T Figure Census Designated Places

4 y Census Tracts 2000 Tulare County Kern County RIDGECREST METROPOLITAN BAKERSFIELD LEGEND Specific Plan Boundary Incorporated Area SCALE IN MILES Sources: Kern Council of Governments, Kern County Census Tracts 2000; Northcutt & Associates. KERN RIVER VALLEY SPECIFIC PLAN E N V I R O N M E N T A L I M P A C T R E P O R T Figure Kern County Census Tracts

5 In addition, the analysis provided further below considers projections by KernCOG for the Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZs) for the KernCOG s designated Planning Areas. The Specific Plan Area falls within the KernCOG Greater Lake Isabella Planning Area (or Planning Area No. 5). According to KernCOG, this area includes Census Tract and Census Tract Census Tract and Census Tract 52.02, as shown in Figure , provides the boundaries of the KernCOG Greater Lake Isabella Planning Area. Estimates of future population, housing, and employment within the Specific Plan Area are derived by assembling current data for the eight CDPs from the 2000 Census and combining these with land use estimates within the CDPs and the non-cdp areas based on a survey of the existing land uses conducted for the preparation of the Specific Plan and planning assumptions provided by KernCOG. Existing and Projected Population According to the 2000 Census, the Specific Plan Area had a marginal decline in population of 0.5 percent between the years 1990 and Combined, Census Tracts and had 15,561 persons in the year 2000 compared to 15,633 persons in the year In comparison, the population in Kern County increased by 21.7 percent and the statewide population increased by 13.8 percent during the same time period. Table provides the population trends for the years 1990 to KernCOG has estimated the future population growth for the Specific Plan Area. Table provides KernCOG s population projections for the Specific Plan Area for the years 2010 to This projected growth is consistent with the population projections being used by KernCOG in the preparation of the Blueprint Strategy and Senate Bill 375 planning documents. According to KernCOG, the population in the Specific Plan Area is expected to increase to 16,622 by the year 2010, 17,637 by the year 2020, and to 19,625 by the year From the year 2006 to the year 2030, the KernCOG projections show that the Specific Plan Area population is estimated to increase by 3,140 persons. Existing and Projected Households According to the 2000 Census, the number of households in the Specific Plan Area increased by 0.4 percent from 7,109 households in the year 1990 to 7,137 households in the year In comparison, the number of households in Kern County increased by 15.1 percent and the number of households in the State increased by 10.8 percent during the same time period. Table provides the household trends for the years 1990 to Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

6 TABLE POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD TRENDS IN SPECIFIC PLAN AREA, COUNTY, AND STATE FOR THE YEARS California Kern County Specific Plan Area % Change % Change % Change Population 29,760,021 33,871, % 543, , % 15,633 15, % Households 10,381,206 11,502, % 181, , % 7,109 7, % Housing Units 11,182,882 12,214, % 198, , % 10,582 10, % Average Household Size % % % Source: U.S. Census (1990 and 2000) and Economics Research Associates. 1 Household size for the Specific Plan Area is weighted by the number of housing units in each tract. Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

7 TABLE KERNCOG POPULATION, HOUSEHOLD, AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS IN SPECIFIC PLAN AREA FOR THE YEARS Population 16,485 16,622 16,881 17,637 18,448 19,625 Households 10,836 11,001 11,311 11,781 12,019 12,401 Employment 1 2,696 3,091 3,573 4,095 4,660 5,208 Source: KernCOG, July Employment in this table refers to the number of jobs which could be generated as a result of the development of employee-generating land uses within the Specific Plan Area. Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

8 The decrease in population accompanied by an increase in the number of households indicates a decrease in household size. The household sizes in the Specific Plan Area were smaller in comparison to Kern County and the State. The average household size in the Specific Plan Area was 2.17 persons during the year 1990 and fell to 2.14 persons in the year Based on growth trends identified by KernCOG, the household size of 2.2 persons per household has been assumed for the Specific Plan Area planning horizon (2030). The reduction in household size in the Specific Plan Area contradicts growth patterns in Kern County and the State. Kern County's average household size increased from 2.92 persons to 3.03 persons between the years 1990 and 2000; this was a greater increase both in terms of absolute household size numbers as well as household size growth compared to the State. Table provides a summary of these trends in household characteristics. The smaller household size experienced in the Specific Plan Area (2.17 persons per household size) in comparison with Kern County and the State can be explained by smaller households comprised of retirees and seniors. In contrast, areas within the Central Valley have experienced a trend of increasing household sizes primarily due to increases in larger size households migrating to the region for employment in the agricultural and services-related workforce. The number of housing units in the Specific Plan Area grew at a faster rate compared to household and population growth; however, it was modest compared to housing units added in the County and the State during the 1990 to 2000 time period. The Specific Plan Area experienced an increase in 166 net new housing units during this period, increasing its total housing stock to 10,748 units in 2000 from 10,582 units in This reflects a total increase of 1.6 percent, compared to 16.6 percent growth in housing units countywide and 9.2 percent growth statewide during the same period. The rate of housing unit growth in the Specific Plan Area compared to household and population growth can be attributed to modest increases in seasonally occupied units and second homes. KernCOG has estimated the future household growth for the Specific Plan Area. Table provides the KernCOG household projections in the Specific Plan Area for the years 2010 to This projected growth is consistent with the population projections being used by KernCOG in the preparation of the Blueprint Strategy and Senate Bill 375 planning documents. According to KernCOG, the number of households in the Specific Plan Area is expected to increase to 11,001 by the year 2010, 11,781 by the year 2020, and to 12,401 by the year From the year 2006 to the year 2030, the KernCOG projections show that the number of households in the Specific Plan Area is estimated to increase by 1,565 households. Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

9 Existing Housing Unit Characteristics As shown in Table , the 2000 Census indicated that the eight CDPs in the Specific Plan Area had a combined housing unit stock of 8,871 units in the year Of these, 1,732 units (19.2 percent) are for seasonal or occasional use. This is significantly higher than the countywide (2.5 percent) and statewide (1.9 percent) share of the total housing units that are for seasonal or occasional use. According to the 2000 Census data, more than half of the units (55.5 percent) in the Specific Plan Area communities are mobile homes, compared to 9.7 percent of total units in Kern County and 4.4 percent of total units in the State that are mobile homes. The median (owner occupied) home value in the Specific Plan Area is approximately $83,700 which is lower than the countywide median of $93,300 and the statewide median of $211,100. Squirrel Mountain Valley and Kernville exhibit the highest home values at $134,900 and $127,800, respectively. Existing Household Characteristics Household Income Household income trends for the Specific Plan Area, Kern County, and the State between the years 1989 and 1999 as reported by the 2000 Census are presented in Table As indicated in Table , household income levels in the Specific Plan Area were significantly lower than in Kern County and the State. In 1999, approximately 43.1 percent of the households in the Specific Plan Area earned less than $20,000 per year, compared to 28.2 percent in the County and 19.6 percent statewide. Although the number of low-income households decreased in the Specific Plan Area, accompanied by increases in high-income households between the years 1989 and 1999, their absolute numbers are still skewed towards the lower income categories. Income Characteristics Table provides the key income characteristics of the eight CDPs in the Specific Plan Area according to the 2000 Census. The income figures provided in Table are based on the previous year s counts and represent 1999 estimates. According to the 2000 Census data, the weighted median household income of the eight CDPs combined in the Specific Plan Area is fairly modest at $23,542, compared to the Kern County median income of $35,446 and the statewide median income of $47,493. Squirrel Mountain Valley has the highest median household income at $42,083 (which is higher than the County-wide median), while Onyx has the lowest median household income at $16,058. Approximately 32 percent of the households in the communities within the Specific Plan Area receive retirement income. This is more than double the households in Kern County and the State. The communities within the Specific Plan Area with the largest share of retirees are Squirrel Mountain Valley and Wofford Heights. Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

10 TABLE HOUSING UNIT CHARACTERISTICS FOR SPECIFIC PLAN AREA, COUNTY, AND STATE FOR THE YEAR 2000 Census Designated Place (CDP) Housing Units Seasonal Use Units Percentage of Seasonal Use Units Mobile Homes % Mobile Homes Median Home Value Kernville 1, % % $ 127,800 Wofford Heights 1, % 1, % 85,900 Lake Isabella 2, % 1, % 73,500 Bodfish 1, % % 65,300 Mountain Mesa % % 96,500 Squirrel Mountain Valley % % 134,900 Weldon 1, % 1, % 69,200 Onyx % % 50,800 Non CDP Areas 1, % % 94,350 Total 1 10,748 2, % 5, % $ 85,900 Kern County 231,564 5, % 22, % $ 93,300 California 12,214, , % 538, % $ 211,500 Source: U.S. Census, and Economics Research Associates, and Northcutt & Associates. 1 Total Median Home Value is weighted by CDP housing units (Median value is for owner occupied units only). Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

11 TABLE HOUSEHOLD INCOME TRENDS IN SPECIFIC PLAN AREA, COUNTY, AND STATE FOR THE YEARS HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME California Kern County Specific Plan Area % Change % Change % Change Less than $20,000 2,743,579 2,261, % 63,833 58, % 3,881 3, % $20,000 - $34,999 2,332,432 1,988, % 45,102 44, % 1,588 1, % $35,000 - $59,999 2,831,293 2,730, % 47,240 50, % 1,173 1, % $60,000 - $74, ,926 1,218, % 12,134 19, % % $75,000 or more 1,526,470 3,313, % 13,807 35, % % Median Household Income 1 $35,798 $47, % $28,634 $35, % $ 18,747 $23, % Average Household Income $46,955 $66, % $36,271 $49, % $ 26,459 $34, % SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME California Kern County Specific Plan Area % Change % Change % Change Less than $20, % 19.6% -25.6% 35.1% 28.2% -19.5% 54.0% 43.1% -20.2% $20,000 - $34, % 17.3% -23.0% 24.8% 21.2% -14.5% 22.1% 24.0% 8.7% $35,000 - $59, % 23.7% -12.9% 25.9% 24.2% -6.7% 16.3% 17.8% 8.8% $60,000 - $74, % 10.6% 13.9% 6.7% 9.3% 38.9% 3.7% 6.2% 67.5% $75,000 or more 14.7% 28.8% 96.1% 7.6% 17.2% 126.3% 3.9% 8.9% 129.5% Source: U.S. Census (1990 and 2000) and Economics Research Associates. 1 Median Household income for the Specific Plan Area is weighted by Census Tract Households. Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

12 TABLE INCOME CHARACTERISTICS IN SPECIFIC PLAN AREA, COUNTY, AND STATE FOR THE YEAR 1999 Census Designated Place (CDP) Population Households Median Age (Years) Median Household Income % Households with Retirement Income Individual Below Poverty Level (1999) Kernville 1, $28, % 17.3% Wofford Heights 2,276 1, , % 20.2% Lake Isabella 3,315 1, , % 20.5% Bodfish 1, , % 15.9% Mountain Mesa , % 27.7% Squirrel Mountain Valley , % 2.5% Weldon 2,387 1, , % 18.7% Onyx , % 34.7% Non CDP Areas 2,334 1, Total 1 15,561 7, $23, % 19.3% Kern County 661, , $35, % 20.8% California 33,871,648 11,502, $47, % 14.2% Source: U.S. Census, Economics Research Associates, and Northcutt & Associates. 1 Total Median Household is weighted by CDP Households. Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

13 The share of individuals below poverty level is relatively higher in Kern County (20.8 percent) compared to the statewide average (14.2 percent). Although the communities in the Specific Plan Area combined have marginally lower poverty levels compared to the County, they still have higher levels of poverty compared to the State. The communities of Onyx and Mountain Mesa have the highest share of individuals below poverty level. Existing and Projected Employment Table provides the employment characteristics for Specific Plan Area and the County for the year As indicated in Table , in the year 2000, there were 12,972 residents within the Specific Plan Area that were 16 years and older. Of the residents, only 4,876 persons (38 percent) were in the labor force and 4,354 were employed. In comparison, according to the Kern River Valley Specific Plan Preliminary Economic Overview Report, in the year 2000, 267,063 persons (56.5 percent) of the County population that was 16 years or older were in the labor force and 232,461 were employed. The low level of participation in the labor force in the Specific Plan Area in comparison with the labor force county-wide can primarily be attributed to the high number of retirees and seniors in the Specific Plan Area. Of the Specific Plan Area resident population that was 16 years and older, 4,727 (30 percent) were 65 years and older. The resident population that was under 16 years of age and assumed to not be in the labor force consisted of 2,589 (17 percent). Based on this, approximately 53 percent of the resident population in the Specific Plan Area was between 16 and 65 years of age and could be assumed to be within the age range to be included in the labor force in the year Table provides the occupations for the residents 16 years and older in the Specific Plan Area for the year Of the Specific Plan Area residents in the labor force, the greatest number of people were employed in Sales and Office occupations. This was followed by employment in Service occupations and Management, Professional, and Related occupations, many of which support the tourism industry in the Specific Plan Area. Table indicates the types of industries that provide employment in the Specific Plan Area for the year Although the Specific Plan Area has a tourist-based economy, only 8.2 percent of the labor force was employed in that industry. The Retail Trade employed 13.7 percent of the employed population. Education, Health, and Social Service industries employed 21 percent of the employed population. Therefore, schools, the hospital, and government entities were the largest employers in the Specific Plan Area. KernCOG has estimated future employment growth for the Specific Plan Area. Table provides the KernCOG employment projections for the Specific Plan Area for the year 2010 to This projected growth is consistent with the employment projections used by KernCOG in the preparation of the Blueprint Strategy and Senate Bill 375 Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

14 TABLE EMPLOYMENT AND HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS FOR SPECIFIC PLAN AREA AND COUNTY FOR THE YEAR 2000 Census Designated Place (CDP) Population (16 Years and Older) Total Households Civilian Labor Force Employed Population Jobs/ Household Ratio Kernville 1, Wofford Heights 1,954 1, Lake Isabella 2,676 1,526 1, Bodfish 1, Mountain Mesa Squirrel Mountain Valley Weldon 2,002 1, Onyx Non-CDP Areas 1,814 1, Specific Plan Area Total 12,972 7,137 4,876 4, Kern County 472, , , , Source: U.S. Census, and Economics Research Associates, and Northcutt & Associates. TABLE KERN RIVER VALLEY SPECIFIC PLAN AREA OCCUPATIONS (EMPLOYED CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 16 YEARS AND OLDER) FOR THE YEAR 2000 Occupation No. of Residents Percentage of Residents Management, Professional, and Related 1, Service 1, Sales and Office 1, Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Construction, Extraction, and Maintenance Production, Transportation, and Material Moving Total 4, Source: U.S. Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF-3). Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

15 TABLE KERN RIVER VALLEY SPECIFIC PLAN AREA INDUSTRY INFORMATION (EMPLOYED CIVILIAN POPULATION 16 YEARS AND OVER) FOR THE YEAR 2000 Industry No. of Residents Percentage of Residents Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting, and Mining Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail trade Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities Information Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, and Rental Leasing Professional, Scientific, Management, Administrative, and Waste Management Services Education, Health, and Social Services Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Public Administration Total 4, Source: U.S. Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF-3). Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

16 planning documents. According to KernCOG, employment as a result of the development of the employee-generating land uses in the Specific Plan Area is expected to increase to 3,091 by the year 2010, 4,095 by the year 2020, and to 5,208 by the year From the year 2006 to the year 2030, the KernCOG projections show that the amount of employment in the Specific Plan Area is estimated to increase by 2,512 jobs. Balance of Employment with Housing The balance of employment with housing, referred to as jobs/housing balance, is used to describe the relationship between the employment base and the housing supply in a geographic area. The inclusion of the jobs/housing balance discussion is typically used to determine if the relationship between these two characteristics is out of balance. In addition, it provides an indication of trends such as vehicle miles traveled, air quality, and, in some instances, housing availability and affordability. The goal of reaching an adequate jobs/housing balance is to have affordable housing opportunities in close proximity to the workplace. The Southern California Association of Governments publication entitled The New Economy and Jobs-Housing Balance in Southern California, dated April 2001, defines the benefits typically attributed to a jobs/housing balance as: reduced driving and congestion; fewer air pollution emissions; lower costs to businesses and commuters; lower public expenditures on facilities and services; greater family stability; and higher quality of life. A jobs/housing balance with a low ratio (less than 1 to 1) indicates more of a bedroom community, while a high ratio (greater than 1 to 1) indicates that the geographic area is more of an employment center. The existing jobs/housing balance ratio for cities in Kern County and the unincorporated County areas was calculated by KernCOG in their publication entitled Regional Housing Needs Assessment and Allocation Plan. Based on this document, Table provides the jobs/housing balance for Kern County. This jobs/housing balance ratio is based on the total civilian labor force and the number of households. As the Regional Housing Needs Assessment and Allocation Plan was utilized to identify housing need for the County General Plan Housing Element, including the housing in the Specific Plan Area, for consistency, the same methodology was utilized to calculate the existing jobs/housing balance ratio for the Specific Plan Area. As indicated in Table , the Specific Plan Area has a jobs/housing ratio of 0.68 and, therefore, there are more housing units than jobs. As indicated in Table , the cities in the County, as well as the unincorporated areas in the County, generally have a more balanced jobs/housing ratio. When an area has a higher number of jobs relative to its housing supply, there is generally a decline in affordability of housing prices for the lower income segments of the population. The area is likely to experience an increase in housing prices (which Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

17 TABLE NUMBER OF JOBS PER HOUSEHOLD IN KERN COUNTY FOR THE YEAR 2000 Jurisdiction Jobs/Households Arvin 1.57 Bakersfield 1.33 California City 0.52 Delano 1.57 Maricopa 1.01 McFarland 1.64 Ridgecrest 1.15 Shafter 1.32 Taft 1.13 Tehachapi 0.96 Wasco 1.50 Unincorporated 1.23 Incorporated 1.32 County Total 1.28 Source: Regional Housing Needs Assessment and Allocation Plan, KernCOG, July Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

18 typically results in reduced affordability). If an area has fewer jobs in comparison to housing units, this may indicate that residents are commuting to jobs located elsewhere. The resulting commuting patterns can lead to traffic congestion, a decline in air quality, extra costs to both businesses and individuals, and a reduction in the overall quality of life for the commuter. In addition, commuting may occur in areas where employment opportunities do not match the skills and educational characteristics of the local labor force, even if there is a general balance in the jobs/housing ratio. Many area residents commute daily to work in employment centers outside the Specific Plan Area. Commuters generally travel to both the Bakersfield area and Ridgecrest for higher-paying wage jobs REGULATORY SETTING State State law requires each city and county to adopt a general plan for future growth. The plan must include a housing element that identifies housing needs for all economic segments and provides opportunities for housing development to meet that need. At the State level, the California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) estimates the relative share of California s projected population growth that would occur in each county based on Department of Finance (DOF) population projections and historic growth trends. Where there is a regional council of governments, HCD provides the regional housing need information to the council. In Kern County, this would be provided to KernCOG. The council then assigns a share of the regional housing need to each of the cities and the county. The process of assigning shares provides cities and counties the opportunity to comment on the proposed allocations. HCD oversees the process to ensure that the council distributes the county s share of the State s projected housing needs. Each city and county must update its General Plan Housing Element on a regular basis (generally every five years). Among other requirements, the Housing Element must incorporate policies and identify potential sites that would accommodate the jurisdiction s share of the regional housing need. Before adopting an update, the city or county must submit the draft Housing Element to the HCD for review. The HCD will advise the local jurisdiction whether its Housing Element complies with the provisions of California Housing Element Law. Local The following provides a discussion of the local regulatory requirements and guidelines that would be a consideration in planning and development in the Specific Plan Area. Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

19 Kern County General Plan The General Plan is a policy document with planned land use maps and related information designed to provide long-range guidance to County officials making decisions affecting development and the resources of the unincorporated Kern County jurisdiction, excluding the Metropolitan Bakersfield planning area. The General Plan helps to ensure that day-to-day decisions conform with long-range policies designed to protect and further the public interest related to the County s growth and development. The General Plan was updated and approved on June 15, 2004 by the Board of Supervisors. The General Plan Land Use, Open Space, and Conservation Element provides the following relevant goal, policies, and implementation measure related to population growth: Goal: General Provisions 1. Ensure that the County can accommodate anticipated future growth and development while maintaining a safe and healthful environment and a prosperous economy by preserving valuable natural resources, guiding development away from hazardous areas, and assuring the provision of adequate public services. Policies: General Provisions 6. The County shall ensure the fair treatment of people of all races, cultures, incomes and age groups with respect to the development, adoption, implementation and enforcement of land use and environmental programs. 7. In administering land use and environmental programs, the County shall not deny any individual or group the enjoyment of the use of land due to race, sex, color, religion, ethnicity, national origin, ancestry, lawful occupation, or age. Implementation Measure A. The Kern Council of Governments (Kern COG) will monitor population growth and its subsequent developmental effects to identify the distribution of population increases and the capabilities of governmental and public agencies to provide new development with adequate services and facilities in a fiscally acceptable manner. Kern County Housing Element The Kern County Housing Element addresses the unincorporated portions of the Metropolitan Bakersfield General Plan and the Kern County General Plan. The Housing Element is one of the seven mandatory elements of the Kern County General Plan. Housing element law, enacted in 1969, mandates that local governments adequately plan to meet the existing and projected housing needs of all economic segments of the community. The law acknowledges that, in order for the private market Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

20 to adequately address housing needs and demand, local governments must adopt land use plans and regulatory systems that provide opportunities for, and do not unduly constrain, housing development. As a result, housing policy in the State rests largely upon the effective implementation of local general plans and, in particular, local housing elements. State law required that the Kern County Housing Element be updated by June 30, An updated Housing Element was adopted by the Kern County Board of Supervisors and approved by the State IMPACTS Impacts 4.12 Would the Proposed Project Result in Impacts Related to Population Growth Based on the Thresholds of Significance Identified Below? Methodology The potential impacts related to population growth associated with the proposed project were evaluated on a quantitative and qualitative basis. The evaluation of the impacts of the proposed project is based on professional judgment, the significance criteria established by CEQA and the County, and an analysis of the Kern County General Plan goals and policies related to population growth. Thresholds of Significance Impact Criteria The Kern County CEQA Implementation Document and the Kern County Environmental Checklist state that a proposed project could potentially have a significant impact if it would: Include substantial population growth in an area either directly (for example, by proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure). For the purposes of this analysis, if the growth exceeds the KernCOG projections provided in Table , the growth is considered to be substantial. As discussed in Chapter 2.0, Introduction, of this EIR, the environmental issues related to the displacement of existing housing and the displacement of people necessitating the construction of housing elsewhere were focused out of the scope of this Draft EIR during the preparation of the NOP and Initial Study. Kern River Valley Specific Plan Chapter 3.0, Project Description, of this EIR provides a description of the proposed project which consists of the implementation of the Specific Plan. The Specific Plan establishes planning goals, policies, and implementation measures to guide the future land uses and development of the Plan Area to the year 2030 to expand and enhance the community s unique business and tourism resources, while conserving existing environmental resources. Figure 3-3 in Chapter 3.0, Project Description, of this EIR Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

21 provides the Specific Plan Land Use Map which identifies the proposed land use distribution within the Specific Plan Area. In addition, the Specific Plan incorporates the goals, policies, and implementation programs of the Kern County General Plan Housing Element by reference. These goals, policies, and implementation programs address all housing needs of lowincome residents including those in the Specific Plan Area. Economic Development Element The Specific Plan Economic Development Element provides the following goals, policies, and implementation measure related to population growth: Local Economy and Labor Force Goals Goal 8.1.1: Encourage and facilitate a wide range of business activities that enhance the local economy while maintaining the rural atmosphere of the Kern River Valley. Goal 8.1.2: Goal 8.1.3: Maintain and expand employment and higher education opportunities in the Kern River Valley. Ensure the Kern County governmental framework supports and promotes economic vitality in the Kern River Valley. Local Economy and Labor Force Policies Policy 8.1.1: Provide support and assistance for small local businesses. Policy 8.1.2: Encourage local trading and cooperatives among businesses to strengthen community ties and maximize financial resources. Policy 8.1.3: Support provision of additional services such as early morning and latenight dining and activities. Policy 8.1.4: Encourage the development of off-season services and activities to attract customers throughout the year. Policy 8.1.5: Encourage the development of small, family run businesses in the Valley. Policy 8.1.6: Encourage the development of vocational training opportunities and support small business courses at Cerro Coso Community College. Policy 8.1.7: Promote key environmental and scenic values of the Kern River Valley to the film and movie industry. Policy 8.1.8: Support strategies which encourage a diverse and sustainable agricultural economy and utilization of agricultural resources. Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

22 Policy 8.1.9: Provide for mixed land uses that offer a variety of employment opportunities and enhance the area s economy. Policy : Encourage the development of year-round employment opportunities by expanding current business services and creating new forms of employment. Local Economy and Labor Force Implementation Measure Implementation 8.1.1: Work with the Kern River Valley Chamber of Commerce, Kern County Board of Trade, Kernville Chamber of Commerce, Kern River Valley Revitalization, Inc., and other such organizations to develop and implement business attraction and retention programs, as well as provide assistance to small businesses. Project Impacts Related to Consistency with Kern County General Plan Table provides an analysis of the consistency of the proposed project with the relevant goals and policies of the General Plan. As indicated in Table , the proposed project would be consistent with the relevant goals and policies of the General Plan related to population growth. Therefore, the impacts of the proposed project would be considered less that significant. Project Impacts Related to Population Growth The implementation of the Specific Plan would result in the future development of land uses including residential, commercial, industrial, parks and recreational facilities, educational facilities, and governmental facilities. Future development would be located around the existing communities in order to retain the small town character, the general respective boundaries of each community, and conserve resources including agriculture, mineral resources, and open space. The following discusses the estimated population and housing that would have the potential to occur as a result of the build-out of the Specific Plan Land Use Plan by the year 2030 which is the horizon year for the proposed project that is the subject of this EIR. KernCOG has estimated the future population and housing growth for the Specific Plan Area through the Specific Plan horizon year of Table above provides KernCOG s projections for the Specific Plan Area for the years 2010 to According to KernCOG, the population in the Specific Plan Area is expected to increase to 16,622 by the year 2010, 17,637 by the year 2020, and to 19,625 by the year From the year 2006 to the year 2030, the KernCOG projections show that the Specific Plan Area population is estimated to increase by 3,140 persons. Based on these projections, the average population growth per year in the Specific Plan Area would be approximately 0.71 percent. Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

23 TABLE CONSISTENCY OF PROPOSED SPECIFIC PLAN WITH KERN COUNTY GENERAL PLAN Relevant Goal or Policy Land Use, Open Space, and Conservation Element Goal: General Provisions 1. Ensure that the County can accommodate anticipated future growth and development while maintaining a safe and healthful environment and a prosperous economy by preserving valuable natural resources, guiding development away from hazardous areas, and assuring the provision of adequate public services. Policies: General Provisions 6. The County shall ensure the fair treatment of people of all races, cultures, incomes and age groups with respect to the development, adoption, implementation and enforcement of land use and environmental programs. 7. In administering land use and environmental programs, the County shall not deny any individual or group the enjoyment of the use of land due to race, sex, color, religion, ethnicity, national origin, ancestry, lawful occupation, or age. Consistency Analysis The Specific Plan Land Use Plan provides future growth located around the existing communities in order to retain the small town character and the general respective boundaries of each community while conserving resources, avoiding hazards, and providing adequate public services. The Specific Plan Land Use Element and Conservation Element provide goals, policies, and implementation measures to support this. The implementation of the Specific Plan would result in the development that would provide housing and employment for a broad range of the population without regard to race, culture, income, or age. This would be reflected through the implementation of the Specific Plan and enforcement of land use and environmental programs related to development and the conservation of open space and resources in the Specific Plan Area. Refer to the analysis of Policy 6 above. Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

24 As shown in Table , according to KernCOG, the number of households in the Specific Plan Area is expected to increase to 11,001 by the year 2010, 11,781 by the year 2020, and to 12,401 by the year From the year 2006 to the year 2030, the KernCOG projections show that the number of households in the Specific Plan Area is estimated to increase by 1,565 households. Based on these projections, the average growth in dwelling units/households per year in the Specific Plan Area would be approximately 0.55 percent. Since the growth projections for the build-out of the Specific Plan through the horizon year 2030 are consistent with the KernCOG projections as indicated in Table above, this growth would not be considered substantial. Although growth in the resident population and the corresponding growth in the number of dwelling units/households and businesses would occur, this growth has been anticipated by the County, KernCOG, and the regional planning agencies in the Kern County General Plan, Blueprint Strategy, and the Senate Bill 375 planning documents that are currently under preparation. In addition, the County and KernCOG have anticipated and included this growth in the planning of the area-wide transportation improvements and infrastructure. The Specific Plan provides goals, policies, and implementation measures that address and require the analysis of direct and indirect effects related to the adequacy of the transportation system (including the extension of roadways), utilities and services systems, and public services for development projects prior to the approval of any discretionary actions. Therefore, the proposed project, which consists of the build-out of the Specific Plan to the 2030 horizon year, would not result in significant direct or indirect impacts related to future population and housing growth in the Specific Plan Area. Project Impacts Related to Employment and Jobs/Housing Balance KernCOG has estimated future employment growth for the Specific Plan Area. Table above provides the KernCOG employment projections for the Specific Plan Area for the year 2010 to This projected growth is consistent with the employment projections used by KernCOG in the preparation of the Blueprint Strategy and Senate Bill 375 planning documents. According to KernCOG, employment as a result of the development of employee-generated land uses in the Specific Plan Area is expected to increase to 3,091 by the year 2010, 4,095 by the year 2020, and to 5,208 by the year From the year 2006 to the year 2030, the KernCOG projections show that the amount of employment in the Specific Plan Area is estimated to increase by 2,512 jobs. This represents an increase of 2.82 percent per year in employment generated by the land uses developed within the Specific Plan Area. As discussed above, although the Specific Plan has a tourist-based economy, only a small percentage of the resident labor force is employed in that industry. More employment occurs in the Retail Trade and Education, Health, and Social Service industries. As a result, schools, the hospital, and governmental entities are the largest employer in the Specific Plan Area. It is anticipated that these types of industries would continue to provide the majority of the jobs available as the build-out of the Specific Plan occurs. Due to the location and types of communities in the Specific Plan Area, the existing industries are limited to those that do not: require heavy truck traffic or rail service; Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

25 require large quantities of water; generate large volumes of wastewater; or require larger numbers of highly skilled or highly educated work force. During the preparation of the Specific Plan, residents and business owners indicated that there is an interest in creating full-time higher-wage jobs within the Specific Plan Area. Also, eco-tourism should be promoted as an appropriate type of industry since it provides jobs, but allows the area to maintain the natural environment. In response to this, the Specific Plan Economic Development Element provides goals, policies, and an implementation measure. Related to the balance of jobs with housing, it is anticipated that the Specific Plan Area would continue to have a jobs/housing ratio where there are more housing units than jobs. This would be assumed to occur because of the high number or retirees and seniors that would live in the Specific Plan Area. In addition, it is anticipated that the current trend of residents commuting daily to work in employment centers outside the Specific Plan Area would continue, given the transportation and infrastructure limitations discussed above. Therefore, the proposed project, which consists of the buildout of the Specific Plan to the 2030 horizon year, would not result in significant direct or indirect impacts related to population and housing from future employment or the jobs/housing balance in the Specific Plan Area. Cumulative Impacts As discussed in detail in Chapter 3.0, Project Description, of this EIR, three cumulative projects have been identified: the Rio Bravo Ranch (in the Metropolitan Bakersfield Area at the western end of the Kern River Canyon); the Weldon Solar Project (in the Weldon area within the Specific Plan Area); and the Victor Moya project (located between the communities of Lake Isabella and Bodfish within the Specific Plan Area). In addition, an area-wide growth rate of 1.5 percent defined by KernCOG (which includes anticipated growth as a result of the Specific Plan) has been assumed. Since the Victor Moya project consists of the expansion of an existing facility and would be a part of KernCOG s growth-rate assumptions within the Specific Plan Area and the environmental impacts of the Weldon Solar Project will be fully analyzed in its own EIR, the following analysis addresses the cumulative effects of the Rio Bravo Ranch in conjunction with the proposed project. In addition, due to the isolated location of the Specific Plan Area from other areas in the County, there are no other projects that have specific cumulative environmental effects. The development of the Rio Bravo Ranch would not contribute to the proposed project s cumulative effect related to population growth. The Rio Bravo Ranch was subject to environmental review and consideration by the City of Bakersfield and KernCOG and, as development is implemented, the project is required to comply with the local land use plans, ordinances, and regulations. This development is included in population projections defined by KernCOG for the Metropolitan Bakersfield General Plan area. This includes projections and guidelines related to population, housing, and employment. As discussed in detail above, the impacts of the proposed project related to population growth would be less than significant. Therefore, upon compliance with the local Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page

26 regulatory requirements, the cumulative impacts of the proposed project in conjunction with the cumulative project related to population growth would be considered less than significant MITIGATION MEASURES No mitigation measures are required beyond compliance with goals, policies, and implementation measures identified in the Kern County General Plan and the Kern River Valley Specific Plan LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE AFTER MITIGATION Project Impacts Impacts related to population and housing growth in the Specific Plan Area would be considered less than significant. Cumulative Impacts Cumulative impacts related to population and housing growth from future employment or the jobs/housing balance in the Specific Plan Area would be considered less than significant. Kern River Valley Specific Plan Page