Putting Consumers First: The 2006 Guglielmo Marconi Lecture William W. Lewis Director Emeritus, McKinsey Global Institute Brussels, 04 December 2006

Transcription

1 Putting Consumers First: The 2006 Guglielmo Marconi Lecture William W. Lewis Director Emeritus, McKinsey Global Institute Brussels, 04 December 2006

2 Consumers First The Remaining Difference Between Europe and the US William W. Lewis The Lisbon Council Brussels December 4, 2006

3 WORLD DISTRIBUTION OF PER CAPITA GDP BY COUNTRY U.S. Dollars, at PPP GDP per capita, 2002 U.S $ thousands High income countries Middle income countries Low income countries Norway Canada Germany U.S. France Japan U.K. Italy 20 Spain Korea Poland South Africa Mexico Russia Brazil 5 0 Pakistan Bangladesh Nigeria Vietnam India Indonesia Population Millions China 2

4 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PATHS Percent U.S level GDP per capita Percent W. Germany ( ) U.S. ( ) France ( ) U.K. ( ) Korea ( ) Japan ( ) Brazil ( ) X X 10 0 India ( ) Russia (1997) Poland (1997) Total labor and capital inputs per capita 3

5 4 GDP per capita = Employment Capita x Labor productivity Skill level of personnel Organization of functions and tasks, marketing and other operational factors Capital and technology Scale and capacity utilization

6 HISTORIC SHARES OF EMPLOYMENT IN DIFFERENT SECTORS Percent of total employment Services Industry Agriculture France Germany Japan Norway US

7 6 CONCLUSIONS Serving consumers interests at the industry level is necessary for the highest economic performance Distortions in competition in product markets reduce productivity and hence consumer benefits Distorting markets to achieve social equity objectives is usually a bad idea Consumers are the only political force that can stand up to producer, labor, and political elites benefiting from market distortions

8 7 CONCLUSIONS Serving consumers interests at the industry level is necessary for the highest economic performance Distortions in competition in product markets reduce productivity and hence consumer benefits Distorting markets to achieve social equity objectives is usually a bad idea Consumers are the only political force that can stand up to producer, labor, and political elites benefiting from market distortions

9 DUAL ECONOMY IN JAPAN 11 Industries Relative productivity levels Index U.S. = Steel Automotive parts Metal working Cars Consumer electronics Computers Soap and detergent U.S. = Beer Retail Housing construction Food processing Employment 100% = million employees 8

10 9 CONCLUSIONS Serving consumers interests at the industry level is necessary for the highest economic performance Distortions in competition in product markets reduce productivity and hence consumer benefits Distorting markets to achieve social equity objectives is usually a bad idea Consumers are the only political force that can stand up to producer, labor, and political elites benefiting from market distortions

11 10 LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, OUTPUT, AND EMPLOYMENT IN U.S. COMMERCIAL BANKS Indexed to 1980 = Output 110 Productivity 100 Employment 90 Deregulation

12 11 AUTOMOTIVE LABOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH Vehicles produced per employee Labor productivity Vehicles per employee Toyota Nissan Toyota 1974 Nissan 1974 Hyundai Hyundai year labor productivity growth rate Percent ( 54) ( 64) ( 74) ( 80) 8.6 Toyota Nissan Hyundai

13 12 CONCLUSIONS Serving consumers interests at the industry level is necessary for the highest economic performance Distortions in competition in product markets reduce productivity and hence consumer benefits Distorting markets to achieve social equity objectives is usually a bad idea Consumers are the only political force that can stand up to producer, labor, and political elites benefiting from market distortions

14 13 IMPORTANCE OF LOW SKILLED LABOR IN THE U.S Number of jobs in the U.S. 26% U.S. minimum wage costs (U.S. $ 5.1) French minimum wage costs (U.S. $ 9.3) WAGE COSTS

15 14 CONCLUSIONS Serving consumers interests at the industry level is necessary for the highest economic performance Distortions in competition in product markets reduce productivity and hence consumer benefits Distorting markets to achieve social equity objectives is usually a bad idea Consumers are the only political force that can stand up to producer, labor, and political elites benefiting from market distortions

16 15 5. Consumers have political clout US Consumer advocacy 1906, Senator Robert La Follette The welfare of all the people as consumers should be the supreme consideration of the government. 1914, Walter Lippman We hear a great deal about the class-consciousness of labour. My own observation is that in America today consumers consciousness is growing very much faster. 1932, President Franklin Roosevelt I believe that we are at the threshold of a fundamental change in our popular economic thought; in the future, we re going to think less about the producer and more about the consumer. 1960, John F. Kennedy The consumer is the only man in our economy without a high-powered lobbyist. I intend to be that lobbyist.

17 Putting Consumers First: The 2006 Guglielmo Marconi Lecture William W. Lewis Director Emeritus, McKinsey Global Institute Brussels, 04 December 2006