Income Statement + 3.5% + 6.7% + 7.1% EPS 187.1p 173.3p + 8.0% Ordinary interim dividend 53.0p 50.0p + 6.0% Full Price
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2 Income Statement m July 2015 July 2014 Total sales 1,907 1,856 Operating profit Interest (15) (15) Profit before tax Taxation (70) (66) Profit after tax % + 6.7% + 7.1% EPS 187.1p 173.3p + 8.0% Ordinary interim dividend 53.0p 50.0p + 6.0% Full Price + 3.5%
3 Cash Flow m Profit before tax Depreciation / disposals Capital expenditure Working capital / other Tax paid ESOT Cash flow before distribution July (81) (84) (70) (40) 129 July (54) (16) (75) (36) 200
4 Cash Flow m July 2015 July 2014 Capital Profit before expenditure tax 347 (81) 324 (54) Jan 2016(e) Jan 2015 Depreciation Full Year / disposals 155m m 57 Warehouse Head Office infrastructure Systems Stores Cosmetic Refits Store systems 6 General IT 6 27m 16m 12m 100m 12m 13m 5m 80m 15m 6m
5 Cash Flow m Profit before tax Depreciation / disposals Capital expenditure Working capital / other Tax paid ESOT Special dividends paid Share buybacks Net cash flow July (81) (84) (70) (40) (163) - July (54) (16) (75) (36) (149) (105) (34) (54)
6 Balance Sheet m Fixed assets & investments Goodwill and intangibles Stock Debtors Creditors July (896) July (867) Dividends payable (237) (212) Pension surplus Buyback commitment Net debt Net assets 37 - (549) (62) (571) 122
7 Balance Sheet m Fixed assets & investments Goodwill and intangibles Stock Debtors Creditors Dividends payable Directory debtors Pension surplus Buyback commitment Net debt Net assets Credit sales increase July (896) (867) (237) (212) m 69 - (62) (549) (571) July July m +21% July 2014 July % July %
8 Balance Sheet m Fixed assets & investments Goodwill and intangibles Stock Debtors Creditors July (896) July (867) Dividends payable (237) (212) Pension surplus Buyback commitment Net debt Net assets 37 - (549) (62) (571) 122
9 Full Year Debt and Cash Flow January January 2016(e) 670 (e) Directory debt 200 (e) m Operational 386 (e) Special dividends 341(e)
10 Funding Requirements Investment grade Secure financing Directory debt is a high yield, secure asset < 1.5bn 900 (e) Peak Year end 1, Bank facility 550 Bonds (e) m 2026
11 Retail High Wycombe Opened July 2015
12 Retail : Sales Analysis m July 2015 July 2014 Total sales 1,083 1, % Full Price + 0.8% Operating profit Sales from new space Sales growth from net space + 2.2% Average net space growth (sq. ft.) + 3.6% Return on space = 61%
13 Retail : Sales Analysis m July 2015 July 2014 Total sales 1,083 1, % Operating profit New store performance Sales v target +10% Payback (months) 18 Store profit 24% Forecast for stores opened or extended in the last 12 months
14 Retail : Sales Analysis m July 2015 July 2014 Total sales 1,083 1, % Operating profit Full year space Stores Jan New (8 re-sites) 22 Extensions 13 Closed (11 re-sites) - 19 Stores Jan 2016(e) k sq. ft %
15 Retail : Profit Analysis m July 2015 July 2014 Total sales 1,083 1,081 Operating profit % + 5.7% % to sales 14.9% 14.1% Margin movement Bought-in gross margin + 0.8% Markdown + 0.2% Achieved gross margin + 1.0%
16 Retail : Profit Analysis m July 2015 July 2014 Total sales 1,083 1, % Operating profit % % to sales 14.9% 14.1% Margin movement Achieved gross margin + 1.0% Store payroll - 0.2% Store occupancy - 0.1% Warehousing and distribution - 0.2% Central overheads + 0.3% Margin movement + 0.8%
17 Directory
18 Directory : Sales Analysis m July 2015 July 2014 Total sales Operating profit m + 8.2% Sales analysis NEXT Directory UK Label Directory UK total Increase on last year % + 19m + 3.3% + 22m % + 41m + 6.3%
19 Directory : Sales Analysis m July 2015 July 2014 Total sales Operating profit m + 8.2% Sales analysis Increase on last year % Directory UK total + 41m + 6.3% NEXT Directory overseas + 17m % Directory total + 58m + 8.2% Customers + 7% + 65% + 13%
20 Directory : Profit Analysis m July 2015 July 2014 Total sales % Operating profit % % to sales 24.0% 24.3% Margin movement Bought-in gross margin + 0.5% Markdown - 0.5% Achieved gross margin 0.0% Sale stock Markdown sales Markdown sales to date + 22% 0% + 18%
21 Directory : Profit Analysis m Total sales Operating profit % to sales July 2015 July % 24.3% + 8.2% + 7.0% Margin movement Achieved gross margin 0.0% Interest income - 0.2% Bad debt + 0.1% Marketing costs + 0.4% Warehouse and distribution - 0.9% Central overheads + 0.3% Margin movement - 0.3%
22 Focus Directory Credit Retail Wages
23 UK Customer Analysis July 2015 July 2014 Cash customers 1.14m 0.81m + 40% Credit customers 2.66m 2.74m - 3% Total UK customers 3.80m 3.55m + 7%
24 Credit Starters and Leavers 30% 20% 10% 0% - 10% - 20% - 30% + 28% + 25% Starters + 19% + 15% +6% +4% -3% -3% - 18% - 22% - 21% - 22% Leavers July 2012 July 2013 July 2014 July 2015
25 Credit Starters and Leavers 30% 20% 10% 0% +12% +6% +4% +5% Credit Sales +10% +2% -3% -3% - 10% - 20% - 30% July 2012 July 2013 July 2014 July 2015
26 Promoting Credit Credit take up from 7% to 14% but still not enough Payment option screen at March 2015
27 Greater Flexibility 9% 5% of balance More like a credit card, less like home shopping Payment option screen at March 2015
28 Change in Directory Debtors Minimum payment impact + 120m Minimum payment impact + 200m(e) Additional interest income Lower APR 24.99% 22.9% m Jan 15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16
29 APR Tracker Competitor Benchmarking July % 40% 38% 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 29.9% to 40.8% Home Shopping 19.9% to 29.95% Store Cards 15.9% to 25.9% Credit Cards Future? Oct %
30 Profitability Annualised (e) Average increase in balance 200m Additional interest income 50m Additional bad debt provision (6.5%) Cost of funding (4%) ( 13m) ( 8m) Sub total 29m APR reduction to 22.9% ( 19m) Net effect 10m 2015/16 (e) 96m 22m ( 13m) ( 4m) 5m ( 4m) 1m 5% * * % return
31 Retail Wages
32 Retail Wages 7.25 Improved pay rates 7.04 NEXT NMW
33 Indexed Earnings Growth 50% 40% 30% Improved pay rates Improved productivity Longer contracted hours + 43% Earnings + 26% Hours worked 20% + 13% Pay rate 10% 0% Payroll % 11.9% * Payroll % 12.1% * * % of payroll over VAT ex. sales
34 July Budget Living Wage Premium reaching 60% of median earnings by set to reach 9 by 2020.
35 Living Wage Premium (LWP) OBR forecast % pa inflation NMW 7.20 LWP Median 55% 7.85 LWP Median 60%
36 Living Wage Premium (LWP) % pa inflation NMW 7.85 LWP Median 60%
37 Impact on NEXT Rates of Pay % 55% of median 60% of median Staff Age 25 yrs Mgr Mgr 2 Mgr 3 Mgr 4 Managers hourly rates at Feb 2016 (estimate)
38 Impact on NEXT Rates of Pay % +6.7% +4.6% +2.7% +0.5% 60% of median Knock on Cost of impact 11m 16m 27m Staff Age 25 yrs Mgr Mgr 2 Mgr 3 Mgr 4 Managers hourly rates at Feb 2016 (estimate)
39 Impact on NEXT Rates of Pay If wage inflation + 4.5% pa % +0.5% % +6.7% +4.6% 60% of median Knock on 11m 16m Inflation 120m Staff Age 25 yrs Mgr Mgr 2 Mgr 3 Mgr 4 Managers hourly rates at Feb 2016 (estimate) Cost of impact Prices 147m + 6%?
40 Impact on NEXT Rates of Pay If wage inflation + 2.0% pa and 9 target +6.6% +8.8% % % Staff Age 25 yrs % Mgr 1 Mgr 2 Mgr 3 Mgr 4 Managers hourly rates at Feb 2016 (estimate) Inflation 60% of median Knock on
41 Impact on NEXT Rates of Pay If wage inflation + 2.0% pa and 9 target +6.6% +8.8% +6.1% +3.3% +1.1% % % Staff Age 25 yrs % Mgr 1 Mgr 2 Mgr 3 Mgr 4 Managers hourly rates at Feb 2016 (estimate) Mgr 5 Mgr 6 Mgr 7
42 2015/16(e) Sales and Profit Guidance 2015/16(e) Full Year Full Price Sales + 3.5% to + 6.0%
43 2015/16(e) Sales and Profit Guidance 2 nd Half + 3.5% to + 7.5% + 5.5% Midpoint
44 2015/16(e) Sales and Profit Guidance v two years ago + 16% v two years ago + 10% + 3.5% + 5.5% Midpoint 1 st Half 2 nd Half
45 2015/16(e) Sales and Profit Guidance Full Year Full Price Sales + 160m + 3.5% + 5.5% Midpoint 1 st Half 2 nd Half
46 2015/16(e) Full Price Sales Drivers If full price sales + 160m Existing stores New space NEXT online UK 2014/15 3.5bn m + 55m + 50m 2015/16(e) 3.6bn + 30m Directory overseas + 40m
47 Sales and Profit Guidance 2015/16(e) Full year Brand full price sales Profit before tax (52 weeks) + 3.5% to + 6.0% 805m to 845m Growth in profit + 2.9% to + 8.0% Ordinary dividend yield* 2.2% Special dividend yield / buybacks* 3.3% TSR underlying (at constant PE ratio) 8.4% to 13.5% * Based on a share price of 72.33
48
Income Statement + 2.2% + 7.2% + 3.9% + 14% EPS 142.1p 118.5p + 20% Dividend per share 36.0p 31.0p + 16% Full Price
July 2013 Income Statement m July 2013 July 2012* Revenue 1,677 1,640 Operating profit 285 266 Interest (13) (15) Profit before tax 272 251 Taxation (55) (60) Profit after tax 217 191 + 2.2% + 7.2% + 14%
More informationIncome Statement. -2.2% -1.2% -9.8% + 2m -9.5% -7.8% EPS (underlying) 176.9p 188.6p -6.2% Ordinary dividends per share 53.0p 53.0p.
Income Statement m July 2017 July 2016 Total sales 1,914 1,957 Operating profit 325 360 Interest (16) (18) Profit before tax 309 342 Taxation (57) (69) Profit after tax 252 273-2.2% -1.2% -9.8% + 2m -9.5%
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