Inflation and competitiveness divergences in the euro area countries:

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1 Inflation and competitiveness divergences in the euro area countries: causes, consequences and policy responses Lucas Papademos Vice-President of the European Central Bank The ECB and its Watchers IX Frankfurt, 7 September 27 1 Outline Introduction Some stylised facts Causes of unit labour cost (ULC) growth differentials and consequences for economic performance Policy responses 2 2

2 Inflation dispersion in the euro area and in the United States Dispersion of annual inflation rates (unweighted standard deviation, percentage points) Stage I of EM U (12 countries) Stage II of EM U Stage III of EM U (13 countries, incl. Slovenia) United States (14 MSAs) United States (4 census regions) Sources: Eurostat and US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: data up to July 27. US 4 census regions up to June 27 and US 14 MSAs up 3 to April Real GDP growth dispersion in the euro area and in the United States 6. Dispersion of real GDP growth rates (unweighted standard deviation, percentage points). 4. (12 countries) (13 countries, incl. Slovenia) US ( States & D. Columbia) US (8 regions) Sources: European Commission (Ameco database) and US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Note: There is a statistical break in the US regional data in In the US states and regions, the data refer to Gross State Product (GSP). The 8 regions are defined by BEA covering the whole country. Data for Slovenia start in

3 Total ULC growth between in euro area countries relative to euro area average (in percentage points) BE DE IE GR ES FR IT LU NL AT PT FI Source: European Commission ULC growth dispersion in line with benchmark areas since 1999 ULC growth dispersion in the euro area compared with states in the US and with regions of large euro area countries (in percent) EA West Germany Italian regions Spanish auton. comm. US states Sources: Eurostat and national statistical offices. Note: there is a statistical break in the US regional data in

4 Cumulative ULC growth between across countries/states relative to the average change, respectively, in the euro area/the United States (%) BE DE IE GR ES FR IT LU NL A T PT FI 2 1 United States A L A Z CA CO CT FL GA IA IL IN KY LA MA MD MI MN MO MS NC NJ NY OH OK OR PA SC TN TX V A WA WI Sources: European Commission/U.S. Census Bureau 7 7 Persistent ULC developments in the euro area ULC developments across euro area countries relative to the euro area average (Index 1999=) 11 1 IT IE PT ES GR FR 9 AT DE Sources: European Commission (Ameco database) 8 8

5 Evolution of Harmonised Competitiveness Indicators across euro area countries (Index 1999=) IE ES PT IT GR FR AT DE Sources: European Commission (Ameco database) 9 9 Strong ULC growth mostly stems from compensation growth exceeding productivity growth Cumulative increases in ULC, compensation per employee and labour productivity ( ) (percentage changes) ULC Compensation per employee Labour productivity Belgium Germany Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Austria Portugal Finland Source: European Commission (Ameco database)

6 Compensation per employee growth most important factor behind ULC differences Decomposition of ULC growth variance across euro area countries 2 1 Covariance Cycle Productivity Trend Productivity Compensation per employee Source: ECB calculations Similar compensation per employee growth across sectors but lower productivity growth in services Cumulative unit labour cost growth and components in the industry and services sectors (percent) Industry Services incl. construction Compensation Labour Compensation Labour Country ULC per employee productivity ULC per employee productivity Belgium Germany Spain France Italy Luxembourg the Netherlands Austria Finland Source: European Commission (Ameco database) 12 12

7 ULC developments have contributed to shaping the inflation dynamics in the euro area Unit labour cost growth and HICP inflation in euro area countries (cumulative rate of change , in %) Unit labour costs growth FI LU IT NL FR BE PT I E GR ES DE AT HICP inflation Sources: European Commission and Eurostat Some correlation between ULC developments and current account balances across euro area countries ULC growth and current account balances across euro area countries (cumulative changes) changes in current account balances , left-hand side current account balances in 26, left-hand side cumulated ULC growth (reversed sign), right-hand side PT IE GR ES IT LU NL FR BE FI AT DE Source: ECB computations based on European Commission data

8 No clear link between ULC and real GDP developments in the euro area ULC growth and real GDP growth in euro area countries (cumulative rate of change , in %) 3 PT GR 2 I E IT ES LU Unit labour costs growth 2 1 NL FR BE FI DE AT Real GDP growth Source: ECB computations based on European Commission data. 1 1

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