HIGHLIGHTS. Significant job losses were incurred in Information (1,900 jobs or -20%), and Government (about 1,600 jobs or -2% across all levels).

Transcription

1 METROPOLITAN REPORT Economic Indicars for the New Orleans Area DIVISION OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Volume 24, No. 2 Forecasts for the 3 rd Quarter 214 through the 2 nd Quarter 216 September 214 HIGHLIGHTS The United States economy was stronger in the second quarter of 214, as shown by the real GDP advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in early August. After a disappointing first quarter when the real output declined by 2%, the US economy bounced back at the end of June, and increased by about 4%. Nationwide, employment grew by.6% in the second quarter of 214, adding nearly 759, jobs over the first quarter of 214. When compared against the second quarter of 213, growth figures translate approximately 2.4 million jobs added across the U.S. over the past year. By midyear 216, national employment is expected reach approximately 143 million jobs. Fewer Americans are applying for unemployment aid in 214. In the second quarter of 214, initial unemployment claims decreased by 5% over Q1 214, and 8% over Q Recent data also indicates that the national unemployment rate was 6.2% in Q2 214, down from 6.7% in Q1 214 and from 7.5% in Q Non-farm employment in the metro area was strong in the first half of 214. The New Orleans MSA economy added about 7,45 jobs (1.4%) from the first half in 213. Most noticeable employment gains, in terms of the number of jobs added, were in Leisure and Hospitality (3,4 jobs or 4%), Professional and Business Services (2,3 jobs or 3%), and Educational Services (2,1 jobs or 8%). Significant job losses were incurred in Information (1,9 jobs or -2%), and Government (about 1,6 jobs or -2% across all levels). Employment growth in the New Orleans area for the next two years will continue be positive, displaying a fair amount of seasonality. By the second quarter of 216, the area is projected support approximately 559, jobs. On average, the labor market in the New Orleans area continued improve throughout 214. Initial claims were down 8% over the same quarter in 213, while continued claims were also down 11% compared the same quarter in 213. The parishes that reported employment growth during the most current quarter include Orleans (6,428 jobs or 3.6%), St. Tammany (1,568 jobs or 2.%), St. Charles (871 jobs or 3.5%), and St. Bernard (617 jobs, or 1.4%). In 213, the New Orleans urism industry continued grow, as the city welcomed more visirs than in the previous year, a trend that has persisted since 21. About 9.28 million visirs came the New Orleans area in 213, representing a 3% increase over the 9.1 million visirs who came in

2 OVERVIEW The UNO Forecasting Model provides current indicars along with detailed forecasts of the economic activity for the U.S. and the New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). Economic indicars are reported and analyzed over the last five calendar quarters using the latest data through the second quarter of 214. The latest available data on economic indicars for individual parishes within the New Orleans MSA are from the fourth quarter of 213. All percent changes in quarterly activity reflect differences with respect the previous quarter and the same quarter in the prior year. THE NATIONAL ECONOMY The United States economy was stronger in the second quarter of 214, as shown by the real GDP advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in early August. After a disappointing first quarter, when the real GDP declined by 2%, the US economy bounced back at the end of June, and increased by about 4%. According BEA, the growth in real output was primarily driven by an increase in personal consumption, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, private invenry investment and spending by state and local governments. Negative contributions were driven by an increase in imports. In the near future, growth in real output is likely be conservative. Real GDP is expected add another 1% by the end of 214. (Figure 1) Figure 1. Percent Change in Real GDP Growth Rate (%) Nationwide, employment increased by.6% in the second quarter of 214, adding about 759, jobs over the first quarter of 214. When compared against the second quarter of 213, growth figures translate approximately 2.4 million jobs added across the U.S. over the past year. By midyear 216, national employment is expected reach approximately 143 million jobs (Figure 2). In addition consistent gains in national employment, fewer Americans are applying for unemployment aid in 214. In the second quarter of 214, initial unemployment claims decreased by 5% over Q1 214, and 8% over Q Recent data also indicates that the national unemployment rate was 6.2%, down from 6.7% in Q1 214 and from 7.5% in Q2 213 (Table 1). When compared Q2 213, housing starts and personal income continued grow as well, increasing by 13%, and 4% respectively. Source: Georgia State University (GSU) and Division of Business and Economic Research (DBER) Source: GSU and DBER Figure 2. Total U.S. Employment (Millions of Jobs) 2

3 $ per barrel oil $ per thou cft gas Table 1. U.S. Economic Indicars Quarterly Actuals, 213:2 214:2 Economic Indicars 213:2 213:3 213:4 214:1 214:2 Percentage Change 3 214:1 214:2 213:2 214:2 GDP Nominal ($Bill) Annual Rate 1 16,619 16,872 17,78 17,44 17,295* GDP Real (25 $Bill) Annual Rate 1 15,67 15,78 15,916 15,832 15,986* Personal Income ($Bill) Annual Rate 1 14,131 14,247 14,312 14,488 14, Total Non-Farm Employment (Mill Jobs) Housing Starts (Thou) Annual Rate , Unit Sales of Aumobiles (Mil) Annual Rate Unemployment Rate (%) Initial Unemployment Claims Weekly (thou) Consumer Price Index-Urban ( =1) Industrial Production Manuf. Index (27=1) Prime Interest Rate (%) Mortgage Interest Rate (%) Trade Weighted Value of $ (25=1) Crude Oil Price ($ per barrel) Natural Gas Price ($ per thou cft) U.S. Rig Count 1,758 1,77 1,757 1,779 1, Value of Imports ($Bill) Annual Rate 1 2,32 2,39 2,31 2,342 2, Value of Exports ($Bill) Annual Rate 1 1,543 1,566 1,614 1,575 1, Merchandise Trade Balance ($Bill) Annual Rate *These figures reflect only the advance estimates by BEA. 1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Revised figures match Economic Forecasting Center, Georgia State University data series. 3 Percent changes may not be exact due rounding. 4 These figures represent percentage points. Oil and Gas Oil prices averaged $13 per barrel in the second quarter of 214, a 1% increase over the average price of about $94 in the same quarter of 213 (Figure 3). Most recent data indicates that the price of oil is forecasted increase throughout the last part of 214, and the first half of 215 (see Table 2). Although the price of natural gas went down in the second quarter of 214, it was still higher than in Q Conversely, according the most recent data from EIA (Energy Information Administration), the price of natural gas is expected decrease by the end of 215. Figure 3. Price of Oil and Natural Gas $15 $125 $1 $75 $5 $25 $ $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Trade At the end of 213, the US trade balance deficit reached a low that has not been seen since September 21. However, in the first half of this year, the deficit began expand again as national imports were increasing faster than exports. However, most recent forecasts indicate a reduction in deficit in the upcoming quarters through the end of 215. Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) and DBER Forecast Oil (left) Gas (right) Table 2, on the next page, includes a forecast of the national economic indicars for the next two years. Overall, indicars predict a continuous growth throughout the economy in the upcoming quarters. 3

4 Table 2. U.S. Economic Indicars Quarterly Forecast and Model Assumptions, 214:2 216:2 Actual Forecast Economic Indicars 214:2 214:3 214:4 215:1 215:2 215:3 215:4 216:1 216:2 GDP Nominal ($Bill) Ann. Rate 17,295 17,515 17,659 17,837 17,997 18,175 18,352 18,552 18,746 GDP Real (25 $Bill) Ann. Rate 15,986 16,96 16,173 16,253 16,344 16,448 16,554 16,663 16,774 Personal Income ($Bill) Ann. Rate 14,696 14,848 14,961 15,158 15,298 15,449 15,625 15,863 16,54 Total Non-Farm Employment (Mill Jobs) Housing Starts (Thou) Ann. Rate ,21 1,59 1,154 1,176 1,243 1,148 1,196 Unit Sales of Aumobiles (Mill) Ann. Rate Unemployment Rate (%) Consumer Price Index-Urban ( =1) Industrial Production Manuf. Index (27=1) Prime Interest Rate (%) Mortgage Interest Rate (%) Trade Weighted Value of $ (25=1) Crude Oil Price ($ per barrel) Natural Gas Price ($ per thou cft) * * Value of Imports ($Bill) Ann. Rate 2,413 2,366 2,388 2,397 2,43 2,423 2,449 2,481 2,52 Value of Exports ($Bill) Ann. Rate 1,617 1,626 1,659 1,684 1,73 1,724 1,744 1,775 1,796 Merchandise Trade Balance ($Bill) Ann. Rate (796) (74) (729) (713) (7) (699) (75) (76) (77) Source: Economic Forecasting Center, Georgia State University; U.S. Energy Information Administration. THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ECONOMY Overview Employment figures for the New Orleans area in the second quarter of 214 include preliminary estimates for June from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Non-farm employment in the metro area was strong in the first half of 214. The New Orleans MSA economy added about 7,45 jobs (1%) from the first half of 213. Most noticeable employment gains, in terms of the number of jobs added, were in Leisure and Hospitality (3,4 jobs or 4%), Professional and Business Services (2,3 jobs or 3%), and Educational Services (2,1 jobs or 8%). Significant job losses were incurred in Information (1,9 jobs or -2%), and Government (about 1,6 jobs or -2% across all levels). second quarter of 216, the area is projected support approximately 559, jobs. (Figure 4) Figure 4. Total New Orleans MSA Employment (Thousands of Jobs) Employment growth in the New Orleans area for the next two years will continue be positive displaying a fair amount of seasonality. By the Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and DBER 4

5 Mar-1 Oct-1 May-2 Dec-2 Jul-3 Feb-4 Sep-4 Apr-5 Nov-5 Jun-6 Jan-7 Aug-7 Mar-8 Oct-8 May-9 Dec-9 Jul-1 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Jan-14 Table 3. New Orleans MSA Employment Quarterly Actuals, 213:2 214:2 Secrs 1 213:2 213:3 213:4 214:1 214:2 214:1 214:2 Percent Change 2 213:2 214:2 213YTD 214YTD Total Nonfarm Employment 544, ,1 552, , , Mining and Logging 7,533 7,767 7,7 7,667 7, Construction 31,167 31,667 31,667 3,967 31, Manufacturing 29,333 29,767 29,367 29,167 29, Durable Goods 13,4 13,7 13,333 13,233 13, Transportation Equipment 4,7 4,6 4,367 4,4 4, Nondurable Goods 15,933 16,67 16,33 15,933 16, Chemical Manufacturing 4,3 4,3 4,267 4,3 4, Wholesale Trade 22,967 23,167 23,333 22,5 22, Retail Trade 59,5 6,2 62,2 59,633 59, Grocery Sres 9,5 9,733 1, 9,833 9, General Merchandise Sres 12,333 12,667 13,567 12,533 12, Transport, Warehousing, and Utilities 26,467 26,567 27,367 27,433 28, Information 1, 8,533 8,433 7,5 8, Financial Activities 27,1 27,4 27,667 27,567 27, Deposiry Credit (banking) 5,5 5,567 5,567 5,5 5, Professional and Business Services 71,133 71,767 73,2 72,7 74, Professional, Scientific, Technical 31,7 31,6 32,467 32,333 32, Management of Companies 7,833 8,1 8,1 8,1 8, Admin, Support, Waste Mgmt. 31,6 32,67 32,633 32,267 33, Educational Services 27,33 25,533 27,7 29,33 29, Health Care and Social Assistance 56,9 57,3 57,567 57,667 57, Ambulary Health Care 21,433 21,5 21,8 21,967 21, Hospitals (private) 18,133 18,867 19,33 19,167 19, Leisure and Hospitality 78,867 78,567 8, 81,3 81, Arts, Entertainment, and Rec. 1,5 1,667 1,767 1,733 1, Accommodation 14,67 13,967 14,367 14,667 15, Food Services and Drinking Places 54,3 53,933 54,867 55,9 55, Other Services 2,2 2,333 2,433 2,4 2, Government 76,267 74,533 76,1 74,8 74, Federal Government 12,67 12, 11,967 11,9 11, State Government 16,467 16,2 16,8 15,8 15, Local Government 47,733 46,333 47,333 47,1 47, Unemployment Rate (%) Unemp Claims weekly Initial Unemp Claims weekly Continued 5,464 6,488 5,644 5,364 4, Some industries are volatile or subject seasonality including information and educational services. 2 Percent changes may not be exact due rounding. 3- These figures represent percentage points. 15 Figure 5. Unemployment Rate (%) 1 5 Source: BLS and DBER U.S. Seasonally Adj. New Orleans MSA Poly. (New Orleans MSA) 5

6 Employment Changes in the Year Year--Date Analysis (214 YTD vs. 213 YTD) In the first six months of 214, employment in Leisure and Hospitality increased by about 3,4 jobs or 4% over 213 figures. This particular secr has outweighed most other employment secrs in the local metro area. Out of the tal number of new jobs added, nearly 2,1 were accounted for in the Food Services and Drinking Places subsecr. Such growth was in part supported by an addition of about 5 restaurants in the New Orleans area over 213. Other food and drinking establishments around the metro area have also been hiring new personnel. Another 96 jobs were created in the Accommodation subsecr, and a smaller gain of about 36 jobs was recorded in Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation. Professional and Business Services represents one of the primary hiring secrs in the New Orleans area. In the first half of this year, the second biggest gain was recorded in Professional and Business Services where about 2,3 (3%) new jobs were added the local economy. Out of that figure, about 53%, or 1,2 jobs belonged its primary subsecr, Administrative, Support, and Waste Management. Educational Services had the third highest gain, with about 2,1 new positions added over the first half of 213. Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities was right behind, and saw an increase of about 1,3 jobs over the same time frame in 213. Job losses were also present in the New Orleans area economy, and were most notable in the following secrs: Information and Government (all levels). About 2, jobs were lost in the Information secr in the first half of 214. Hisrically, this secr has been fairly volatile in the local economy. The Government secr continued downsize, and experienced a loss of approximately 1,6 jobs or about 2% over 213YTD. Out of that tal, the State Government lost about 1, jobs. The other two branches, Federal and Local Governments lost approximately 2, and 3 jobs, respectively. Despite some of these losses, the job market in the New Orleans area remained solid during the first half of 214. While still displaying a fair amount of volatility on a quarterly basis, the number of jobs in the metro area has been increasing every year since 212. Quarterly Analysis (214 Q2 vs. 213 Q2) When performing a quarterly analysis of employment, in the second quarter of 214, New Orleans added approximately 8,6 jobs (2%) when compared the same quarter in 213. Industries with major employment gains included Professional and Business Services (3,4 jobs or 5%), Leisure and Hospitality (3, jobs or 4%), and Educational Services (2,2 jobs or 8.3%) Job losses in the New Orleans area relative the same quarter in 213 were most notable in Government (1,5 jobs or -2%), Wholesale Trade (7 jobs or -3%), and Transportation Equipment (4 jobs or -9%). Unemployment On average, the labor market in the New Orleans area continued improve throughout 214. After smoothing the local unemployment rate data, the general downward trend can be spotted fairly easy in the first half of this year (Figure 5, page 5). Similarly, the national unemployment rate continued decrease throughout 214. The national rate was at 6.2%, down from 7.5% in the second quarter of 213; the New Orleans MSA rate was 5.1%, thus reaching levels that have not been seen since the recession in 28. Other signs of a strong labor market can be seen in the local initial and continued unemployment claims. Initial claims were down 8% over the same quarter in 213, while continued claims were also down about 11% compared the same quarter in 213. Such positive figures suggest a strong local labor market that is likely continue in the upcoming quarters. 6

7 New Orleans MSA and U.S. Employment In the first half of 214, the overall rate of employment growth in the U.S. (1.7%) was marginally higher than the New Orleans metropolitan area (1.4%). Figure 6 illustrates the contrast in employment growth across secrs of employment between the U.S. and the New Orleans MSA. The most significant decrease for the New Orleans area was observed in Information jobs which declined about 2% from 213. This employment secr remains very volatile in the local area. The U.S. as a whole lost about 1% in this particular secr. In addition, at the MSA level, the State Government incurred another 6% loss and continued reduce its work force. At the national level, State Government employment remained relatively flat. The number of jobs in Federal Government continued decrease as well. While the nation lost about 3% of these jobs, the metro area was down by about 2%. Employment growth in the New Orleans area outpaced nationwide employment growth in several secrs, such as Educational Services, Leisure and Hospitality, and Management of Enterprises. Figure 6. Employment Growth in New Orleans MSA vs. U.S. 214 YTD over 213 YTD Educational Services Accommodation Leisure and Hospitality Management of Enterprises Food Services and Drinking Places Admin, Support, Waste Mgmt Professional and Business Services Other Services Nat. Resources and Mining Financial Activities TOTAL NONFARM (not seasonally adj.) Construction Health Care and Social Assistance Nondurable Goods Retail Trade Manufacturing Local Government Durable Goods Federal Government Wholesale Trade State Government Information 1.7% 1.4% -25% -2% -15% -1% -5% % 5% 1% U.S. New Orleans MSA Source: BLS and DBER 7

8 Other Economic Indicars Table 4 below includes additional economic indicars for the New Orleans MSA. Overall, estimates indicate that the area continues recover from the effects of Katrina along with the national recession. Table 4. Other New Orleans MSA Economic Indicars Quarterly Actuals, 213:2 214:2 Economic Indicars 213:2 213:3 213:4 214:1 214:2 214:1 214:2 Percent Change 6 213:2 214:2 213YTD 214YTD Crude Oil Price ($ per barrel) Natural Gas Price ($ per thou cft) Louisiana Rig Count Louisiana Oil Production (Thou bbls) 18,89 18,245 17,596 17,772 17,733 e Louisiana Natural Gas Production (Bill cft) e Foreign Trade (Thou short ns) 5,16 5,27 7,157 7, Imports (Thou short ns) 2,588 2,155 2,687 3, Exports (Thou short ns) 2,518 3,115 4,471 4, Air Freight Cargo (Thou short ns) 11,542 1,447 11,27 11,12 1, Hotel Sales ($Mill) Convention Room Nights (Thou) Passenger Deplanements (Thou) e 1,231 1,57 1,197 1,169 1, Casino Admissions (Thou) 1,823 1,868 1,748 1,898 1, Total Gambling Revenues ($Mill) Riverboat Casino Revenues ($Mill) Harrah's Casino Revenues ($Mill) Construction Contracts Awarded ($Mill) , Residential ($Mill) Non-Residential ($Mill) 351 1, Non-Building ($Mill) Construction Contracts in Progress ($Mill) 2 2,75 3,848 4,62 4,14 3, Residential ($Mill) WIP Non-Residential ($Mill) WIP 2,256 3,192 3,287 3,228 2, Non-building ($Mill) WIP 3,25 3,825 3,81 3,757 2, Housing Starts ,274 1, Population (Thou) 3,e 1,214 1,219 1,222 1,223 1, Per Capita Personal Income ($) Ann Rate 4,e 44,642 44,877 44,962 45,46 45, Average weekly wage ($, 8 parish area) Mor Vehicle Sales ($Mill) Hotel sales include Orleans and Jefferson parishes only. 2 Construction figures are supplied by McGraw Hill Construction, Dodge. 3 Population figures are revised for 21 Census data released in April 211 and Census Intercensal Estimates released in April 214. Quarterly figures are a combination of data produced by US Department of Census and UNO estimates using data from the Greater New Orleans Community Data Center. 4 Per capita personal income was revised include Census Intercensal Estimates figures released in April Mor vehicle sales are for all 7 parishes. 6 Percent changes may not be exact due rounding. e Due lag in data, figures are preliminary estimates. 8

9 Millions of bbl Billions of c ft Billions Millions Mor-Vehicle Sales In the second quarter of 214, local aumobile sales were down 3% over the same period in 213 but up 17% over the second quarter in 212. Local aumobile sales reached a new peak in the second quarter of 214. The time series is still displaying a lot of seasonality when compared the level of mor vehicle sales nationally. Total mor vehicle sales throughout the first half of 214 in the local market was about $1 billion, a decrease of about 4% from 213, and an increase of 16% from 212. Nationally, annual mor vehicle sales were up 1% from the second quarter of 213, and another 2% from 212 (Figure 8). It is important note that sales figures over the years are not adjusted for inflation. Oil & Gas Production In the first six months of 214, oil production in Louisiana was slightly down (1%) compared the first half of 213 (Figure 9). However, the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) continues remain a good prospect for Louisiana, where multiple companies hold drilling leases. According a recent article by Motley Fool, the companies who have acquired an interest in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale are planning expand their operations in the near future. 1 Midyear 214 natural gas production was down 2% from midyear 213, and 34% from midyear 212 after reaching a peak at the end of 211. A reason behind such decline is the recent performance of the Haynesville shale. According a recent article by Forbes, natural gas production from Haynesville declined by almost 5% according the latest data from the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. 2 Airport Traffic After a sharp drop in airport activity in 26 due Hurricane Katrina, traffic has been picking up ever since. Both enplanements and deplanements are growing, indicating a higher traffic for the International Airport of New Orleans. In the first six months of 214, there were about 2.5 million passengers enplaned and another 2.4 million passengers deplaned. Such growth in airport traffic will continue motivate the expansion of the Louis Armstrong airport, where discussions regarding a new terminal have already begun. 1 Sreekumar Arjun. Will Halcon Resources Big Bet on the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Backfire. The Motley Fool, 16 June The Popping of the Shale Gas Bubble. Forbes, 3 September , Figure 8. Mor Vehicle Sales - Quarterly 1, U.S. (left) Source: LA Department of Public Safety Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Source: Louis Armstrong International Airport (MSY) New Orleans MSA (right) Figure 9. Louisiana Oil (Field) and Natural Gas Production - Quarterly Oil (left) Natural Gas (right) Figure 1. Half-Year Enplanements/Deplanements (Millions) Enplanements Deplanements 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Deplanements)

10 Q1 27 Q3 27 Q1 28 Q3 28 Q1 29 Q3 29 Q1 21 Q3 21 Q1 211 Q3 211 Q1 212 Q3 212 Q1 213 Q3 213 Q1 214 Port In 213, foreign trade nnage at the Port of New Orleans was down 23% from 212. While exports decreased 25% over 212, imports went down by almost 21%. These trade indicars continue display a lot of volatility. Most recent data from the first three months of 214 indicates that the trade deficit for the port of New Orleans almost doubled from the same time period in 213. Thus, the time series still shows a general increase in deficit level that has started in 21. (Figure 11) Gaming Although New Orleans area casinos continue generate a substantial stream of revenues for the local economy, the amount of revenue continued decrease after reaching a peak in 26. In the first two quarters of 214, revenues were down about 2% from the same time period in 213, and another 5% from the first half of 212. Revenues at halfyear 214 were just under $285 million. Figure 12 on the left shows a clear picture of the negative trend in casino revenues. Total Admissions at the New Orleans area casinos averaged about 3.6 million people in the first half of 214. Counts were down 2% from 213 and 9% from the same period in 212. Currently, admissions figures represent 62% of the levels seen before Hurricane Katrina in 25. (Figure 12) $3 $2 $1 $ -$1 -$2 -$3 -$ Source: Port Of New Orleans $2 $16 $12 $8 $4 Figure 11. Port of New Orleans Cargo - Quarterly (Millions of Tons) Trade Deficit Source: Louisiana Gaming Comission Poly. (Trade Deficit) Figure 12. New Orleans MSA Casino Activity- Quarterly (Millions) $ Revenue (left) Admissions (right) Number of restaurants in the metro area Food plays an important role in the everyday lives of New Orleans area residents; it also represents a very important facr in the decision of visirs who come New Orleans. Everybody wants see what real New Orleans food tastes like. Hence, a wide variety of restaurants is imperative in satisfying local cusmers, and also showing out-ofwn cusmers how New Orleans food gained its reputation. If at the beginning of 27 there were about 75 restaurants, by midyear 214 that number went up by almost 87%, about 1,4 available restaurants in the New Orleans area. 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Figure 13. New Orleans MSA Restaurants 752 1,45 Source: Tom Fitzmorris 1

11 Figure 14. New Orleans MSA Average Monthly Construction Contracts ($ Millions) Non-building Non-residential Residential (6 mos.) Source: McGraw Hill Construction, Dodge Construction The New Orleans MSA construction industry reported about 31, jobs during the second quarter of 214. That represents about 6% of the tal nonfarm jobs in the metro area, thus remaining an important employment industry for residents. Construction activity during 213 looked very similar 27 and 211 when non-residential contracts were predominant. Ongoing projects such as the rebuilding of New Orleans public schools, the University Medical Center, the Veterans Affairs Hospital and the construction of an ammonia plant by Dyno Nobel in Jefferson Parish, continued drive up non-residential construction. Major non-building construction projects were represented by general repairs of streets in New Orleans which are expected be completed by late 217, or early 218. (Figure 14) By midyear 214, non-building construction pped non-residential and residential projects. According the most recent Top Construction Projects 214 by New Orleans CityBusiness, 55 repair projects that were started in 213 will be finished this year, and another 72 projects will begin in 214. For non-residential construction, many of the projects that were in progress in 213, will continue throughout Tourism In 213, the New Orleans urism industry continued grow, as the city welcomed more visirs than in the previous year, a trend that has persisted since 21. About 9.28 million visirs came the New Orleans area in 213, representing a 3% increase over the 9.1 million visirs who came in 212. Spending estimates, including gambling, were $6.47 billion. Such growth in the urism industry greatly benefits New Orleans locals. Increasing visir spending in the New Orleans metropolitan area results in additional urism-related employment opportunities for local residents. Between 26 and 213, about 24, urism-related jobs were added. As of June 214, about 81, people were working in the hospitality industry. Millions Figure 15. New Orleans Visirs and Spending (Full-Year) Billions $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Visirs (left) Spending (right) Source: Hospitality Research Center (HRC) *Before 212, spending estimates exclude visirs' gambling expenditures 11

12 Millions Figure 16. New Orleans MSA Population '6 '7 '8 '9 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 Orleans Parish Jefferson Parish Other NOMSA Parishes Source: US Census, Greater New Orleans Community Data Center, and DBER Population Between 26 and 211, the New Orleans metro area saw a strong recovery in population figures, while during the last couple of years, population growth has stabilized. Most recent May 214 estimates indicate that population was up.8% compared May 213. With approximately 1.2 million residents, the current population remains at 89% of the pre-katrina population. The distribution of New Orleans area locals with respect their parish of residence remains similar. Most individuals live in the parishes of Jefferson and Orleans. The population in Orleans parish is 77% of what it was prior Katrina, while the rest of the population in Jefferson parish and other parishes in the New Orleans MSA have reached 95% and 98% of their respective pre-katrina population estimates. (Figure 16) THE FORECAST Table 5 includes a forecast of all levels of employment for the next two years. Estimates of hotel sales are also included in the analysis. As of the second quarter of 214, the New Orleans MSA had about 553, tal nonfarm jobs. By the same time in 215, the number of jobs is expected increase by nearly 2,9 or.5%. Segments that are expected have a higher growth (215Q2 over 214Q2) include Leisure and Hospitality (1,9 jobs), and Educational Services (1,64 jobs). PARISH DATA The 7-parish area defined as the New Orleans- Metairie-Kenner Metropolitan Statistical Area contains Jefferson, Orleans, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, St. Charles, St. John the Baptist and St. Tammany parishes. St. James used be considered part of the New Orleans MSA. However, in 23 it was removed from the New Orleans MSA by the federal Office of Management and Budget. St. James is still included in the metro area for reporting of average wage data. Data for individual parishes in the New Orleans MSA are given in Tables 6 and 7. Labor data available for individual parishes take longer be released than metropolitan area statistics. Due these reporting lags, this report includes data for the fourth quarter of 213 for all individual parishes, and comparisons are made the previous quarter (213 Q3) and the same period of the previous year (212 Q4). The parishes that reported employment growth over the year in the most current quarter include Orleans (6,428 jobs or 3.6%), St. Tammany (1,568 jobs or 2.%), St. Charles (871 jobs or 3.5%), and St. Bernard (617 jobs, or 1.4%). The remainder parishes lost jobs in the fourth quarter of 213 when compared the same quarter in 212. Jefferson lost approximately 1,472 jobs (-.8%), St. John lost about 341 jobs (-2.3%), while Plaquemines lost 116 jobs (-.8%). Segments that are estimated have larger job losses include Manufacturing (-68 jobs), and Government (-63 jobs). 12

13 Table 5. New Orleans MSA Employment and Economic Indicars Quarterly Forecasts, 214:3 216:2 Actual Forecast Percent Change 1 Secrs 214:2 214:3 214:4 215:1 215:2 215:3 215:4 216:1 216:2 Total Nonfarm Employment 553,67 548, , ,79 555, , , , , Mining and Logging 7,7 7,676 7,591 7,55 7,463 7,422 7,335 7,294 7, Construction 31,333 31,226 31,693 31,415 31,89 31,57 31,997 31,753 32, Manufacturing 29,267 29,94 28,94 28,738 28,586 28,392 28,239 28,34 27, Durable Goods 13,2 13,71 12,926 12,783 12,636 12,493 12,346 12,23 12, Transportation Equipment 4,3 4,175 4,39 3,96 3,768 3,636 3,498 3,365 3, Nondurable Goods 16,67 16,23 16,15 15,954 15,95 15,899 15,893 15,83 15, Chemical Manufacturing 4,3 4,253 4,264 4,234 4,22 4,19 4,18 4,141 4, Wholesale Trade 22,267 22,226 22,195 22,11 22,124 22,52 22,61 21,99 21, Retail Trade 59,767 59,43 6,992 59,777 6,539 6,33 61,45 6,236 61, Grocery Sres 9,733 9,788 9,88 9,886 9,943 9,96 1,23 1,38 1, General Merchandise Sres 12,533 12,591 13,224 12,629 12,728 12,82 13,489 12,865 12, Transport, Warehousing, and Utilities 28,4 28,298 28,181 27,887 27,937 27,715 27,748 27,58 27, Information 8,33 7,914 8,249 7,914 8,248 8,35 8,31 8,99 8, Financial Activities 27,667 27,588 27,587 27,49 27,47 27,363 27,299 27,192 27, Deposiry Credit (banking) 5,433 5,416 5,397 5,39 5,377 5,372 5,36 5,355 5, Professional and Business Services 74,533 74,71 74,88 74,27 75,297 74,829 75,796 75,264 76, Professional, Scientific, Technical 32,7 32,921 32,916 32,976 33,139 33,272 33,359 33,46 33, Management of Companies 8,133 8,13 8,127 8,123 8,12 8,116 8,113 8,11 8, Administrative, Support, Waste Mgmt. 33,7 33,21 33,766 33,17 34,38 33,44 34,324 33,695 34, Educational Services 29,267 28,436 3,358 3,783 3,97 3,262 32,17 32,427 32, Health Care and Social Assistance 57,533 57,294 57,657 57,593 57,852 57,812 58,119 58,71 58, Ambulary Health Care 21,6 21,439 21,62 21,581 21,641 21,621 21,728 21,7 21, Hospitals (private) 19,433 19,424 19,457 19,448 19,481 19,471 19,55 19,495 19, Leisure and Hospitality 81,867 81,694 82,797 82,822 83,782 83,891 84,855 84,814 85, Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1,8 1,893 11,55 1,965 11,111 11,252 11,394 11,344 11, Accommodation 15,2 15,41 15,356 15,141 15,442 15,224 15,524 15,35 15, Food Services and Drinking Places 55,867 55,759 56,386 56,715 57,229 57,415 57,937 58,165 58, Other Services 2,733 2,85 2,989 21,29 21,18 21,236 21,39 21,444 21, Government 74,7 73,911 74,34 73,622 74,63 73,346 73,787 73,71 73, Federal Government 11,833 11,732 11,751 11,671 11,695 11,616 11,641 11,562 11, State Government 15,433 15,116 15,126 14,859 14,876 14,69 14,626 14,359 14, Local Government 47,433 47,63 47,463 47,92 47,492 47,121 47,521 47,15 47, Hotel Sales ($Mil) Percent changes may not be exact due rounding. 2 Orleans and Jefferson Parishes only. 214:2 215:2 215:2 216:2 13

14 Table 6: Jefferson, Orleans, St. Bernard, and St. Charles Parishes Quarterly Concurrent Economic Indicars, 212:4 213:4 Jefferson Orleans St. Bernard St. Charles Percent Chg 3 Percent Chg 3 Percent Chg 3 Percent Chg 3 212:4 213:3 213:4 Qtr Year 212:4 213:3 213:4 Qtr Year 212:4 213:3 213:4 Qtr Year 212:4 213:3 213:4 Qtr Year Total Employment 1 194,23 192, , ,94 177,47 185, ,24 11,114 11, ,645 25,347 25, Agriculture/Fishing Mining 1,571 1,411 1, ,422 2,446 2, Utilities 1,268 1,262 1, Construction 13,717 13,773 13, ,456 5,64 5, ,981 2,61 1, ,27 4,112 4, Manufacturing 11,847 11,24 1, ,37 4,48 4, ,31 1,329 1, ,451 4,628 4, Wholesale Trade 1,87 1,594 1, ,658 3,533 3, ,723 2,425 2, Retail Trade 29,416 28,17 29, ,216 13,723 14, ,559 1,581 1, ,589 1,63 1, Transport & Warehous. 8,785 8,684 8, ,627 8,524 8, ,189 2,215 2, Information 2,495 3,16 2, ,2 3,981 5, Finance and Insurance 8,242 8,485 8, ,29 5,17 5, Real Estate and Rental 3,83 3,898 3, ,647 2,679 2, Profess. & Tech. Svcs 11,382 1,184 1, ,937 15,924 16, ,34 1, Mgmt. of Enterprises 2,77 3,81 3, ,434 3,76 3, Admin. & Waste Svcs 14,88 14,663 15, ,978 9,96 1, ,437 1,74 1, Educational Services ,757 21,371 22, Health & Soc. Assist. 3,396 3,583 29, ,622 2,246 21, ,582 1,678 1, Arts/Entertainment 4,383 4,66 4, ,297 5,246 6, Accommodation & Food 19,221 19,933 19, ,731 33,354 34, ,3 1,19 1, ,11 1,183 1, Other Services 5,697 5,864 5, ,587 5,432 5, Public Administration 6,19 6,134 6, ,12 12,111 11, Total Earnings ($Mill) 2,39 2,17 2, ,37 2,97 2, Avg. Weekly Wage ,256 1,147 1, Est. Population (Thou) Unemployment Rate (%) Unemployment Claims (Initial) 3,317 3,15 2, Unemployment Claims (Continued) 2,968 2,352 2, ,965 2,664 2, Construction Contracts: Res. ($Mil) Res. In-Progress($Mil) Non-Res. ($Mil) Non-Res. In- Progress ($Mill) ,36.1 1, , , , Mor Vehicle Sales ($) The number of jobs and corresponding wages for establishments subject unemployment insurance taxation. Notable exclusions are employees of very small businesses (under 4 employees), self-employed persons and salespersons on commission-only bases. 2 Construction figures are supplied by McGraw Hill Construction, Dodge. 3 Percent changes may not be exact due rounding. 4- These figures represent percentage points. 14

15 Table 7: St. John, St. Tammany, and Plaquemines Parishes Quarterly Concurrent Economic Indicars, 212:4 213:4 St. John St. Tammany Plaquemines Percent Chg 3 Percent Chg 3 Percent Chg 3 212:4 213:3 213:4 Qtr Year 212:4 213:3 213:4 Qtr Year 212:4 213:3 213:4 Qtr Year Total Employment 1 14,69 14,315 14, ,282 81,312 81, ,83 14,683 14, Agriculture/Fishing Mining ,422 1,537 1, ,723 1,499 1, Utilities Construction 1,42 1,281 1, ,787 4,694 4, ,458 1,137 1, Manufacturing 2,695 2,626 2, ,42 3,82 3, ,887 1,921 1, Wholesale Trade ,55 3,483 3, Retail Trade 1,686 1,697 1, ,617 12,681 13, Transport & Warehous ,493 2,533 2, ,36 2,115 2, Information ,24 1, Finance and Insurance ,637 2,719 2, Real Estate and Rental Profess. & Tech. Svcs ,238 4,18 4, Mgmt. of Enterprises ,132 1,164 1, Admin. & Waste Svcs ,882 3,795 3, Educational Services ,78 1,42 1, Health & Soc. Assist. 1,274 1,22 1, ,339 14,372 14, Arts/Entertainment ,36 1,636 1, Accommodation & Food 1,31 1,46 1, ,488 1,31 9, Other Services ,134 2,222 2, Public Administration ,214 3,29 3, ,517 1,442 1, Total Earnings ($Mill) Avg. Weekly Wage , ,228 1,137 1, Est. Population (Thou) Unemployment Rate (%) a Unemployment Claims (Initial) ,172 1,3 1, Unemployment Claims (Continued) Construction Contracts: Res. ($Mil) Res. In-Progress($Mil) Non-Res. ($Mil) Non-Res. In- Progress ($Mill) Mor Vehicle Sales ($) The number of jobs and corresponding wages for establishments subject unemployment insurance taxation. Notable exclusions are employees of very small businesses (under 4 employees), self-employed persons and salespersons on commission-only bases. 2 Construction figures are supplied by McGraw Hill Construction, Dodge. 3 Percent changes may not be exact due rounding. 4 These figures represent percentage points. 15

16 METROPOLITAN REPORT: Economic Indicars for the New Orleans Area Published by the Division of Business and Economic Research College of Business Administration University of New Orleans New Orleans, Louisiana 7148 Telephone Dr. John A. Williams, Dean Maria J. Ortiz, Project Manager Marius M. Mihai, Research Analyst Karen B. Brakel, Project and Budget Coordinar Send address changes Copyright 214. All rights reserved. Division of Business and Economic Research University of New Orleans Lakefront, New Orleans, LA 7148 Forwarding and Return Postage Guaranteed Address Correction Requested