Rate Trends in the Marketplace
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1 9 th National Medicare Supplement Insurance Industry Summit Rate Trends in the Marketplace Andy Baillargeon, FSA, MAAA Gen Re April 11-13, 2017 Dallas, TX Doug Feekin, ASA, MAAA CSG Actuarial Access conference recordings library
2 Proprietary Notice
3 Antitrust Disclaimer General Re Life Corporation is committed to adhering to antitrust laws, and cautions all attendees of this presentation that it is intended solely to provide general industry knowledge. Under no circumstances shall it be used as a means for representatives of competing companies, and/or firms, to reach any understanding whatsoever, whether it be about specific pricing of specific products, if particular products should be marketed to the public, or the terms under which products are marketed.
4 Introduction Data Details: Data Provided by CSG Base Rates and Fully Discounted Rates (HHD, etc.) Plans F, G, and N Ages 65, 70, and 75 Ranks: Company rates are weighted by zip code population Total States Included: 39 standard states State Sizes: Categorized by over age 65 population
5 Introduction This presentation looks only at premium rates Carrier rates over time may reflect any number of changes to cost structure: Claim costs Commissions Administrative costs Profit margins Underwriting Risk segmentation Etc.
6 States Excluded From Analysis California Connecticut Florida Hawaii Maine Minnesota New York Oregon Washington Wisconsin Massachusetts
7 Due to extreme competition and rate compression the following presentation may not be suitable for all viewers
8 Rank Results - Texas Texas Plan : (All) Gender : (All) Age : (All) Date : 2017-Mar Weighted Average Score Rate in Top 1 Rate in Top 3 Rank Company Score Rank Company % Rank Company % 1 Company Company % 1 Company % 2 Company Company % 2 Company % 3 Company Company % 3 Company % 4 Company Company % 4 Company % 5 Company Company % 5 Company % 6 Company Company % 6 Company % 7 Company Company 5 3.0% 7 Company % 8 Company Company % 8 Company % 9 Company Company % 9 Company % 10 Company Company % 10 Company 6 7.7% 11 Company Company % 11 Company % 12 Company Company % 12 Company % 13 Company Company % 13 Company 7 4.3% 14 Company Company % 14 Company % 15 Company Company % 16 Company Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
9 Rank Results - Texas 17 Company Rate in Top 5 Rate in Top Company Rank Company % Rank Company % 19 Company Company % 1 Company % 20 Company Company % 2 Company % 21 Company Company % 3 Company % 22 Company Company % 4 Company % 23 Company Company % 5 Company % 24 Company Company % 6 Company % 25 Company Company % 7 Company % 26 Company Company % 8 Company % 27 Company Company % 9 Company % 28 Company Company % 10 Company % 29 Company Company % 11 Company % 30 Company Company % 12 Company % 31 Company Company % 13 Company % 32 Company Company % 14 Company % 33 Company Company % 15 Company % 34 Company Company % 16 Company % 35 Company Company % 17 Company % 36 Company Company % 18 Company % 37 Company Company % 19 Company % 38 Company Company % 20 Company % 39 Company Company Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
10 Rate Ranks 1-5 Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
11 Rate Ranks 1-10 Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
12 Rate Ranks 1-15 Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
13 Base Rates: Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
14 Rate Ranks 1-15 Plan F Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
15 Rate Ranks 1-15 Plan G Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
16 Rate Ranks 1-10 Plan F Age 65 Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
17 Rate Ranks 1-10 Plan F Age 70 Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
18 Rate Ranks 1-10 Plan G Age 65 Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
19 Rate Ranks 1-10 Plan G Age 70 Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
20 2 Year CAGR to Maintain Rank Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
21 2 Year CAGR to Maintain Rank Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
22 2 Year CAGR to Maintain Rank Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
23 2 Year CAGR to Maintain Rank Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
24 If the average rates are decreasing and I ve been giving medical trend increases?
25 Where Are They Now? Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
26 Where Are They Now? Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
27 Where Are They Now? Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
28 Where Are They Now? Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
29 Rate Spread Between Ranks Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
30 Rate Spread Between Ranks Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
31 Rate Spread Between Ranks Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
32 Rate Spread Between Ranks Premium Rate Information Provided by CSG Actuarial
33 Most & Least Competitive States Definition: Change in Rates from 1/1/2015 to 1/1/2017 Three Bases: Rank 1 Rank 10 Average of Rank 1 to 10
34 Most Competitive States Most Competitive States Rank 1 F Rank 1 G Rank 10 F Rank 10 G Avg 1-10 F Avg 1-10 G UT LA DC DE DC MI AL PA IN NV SC IN NC KS MD OK MI OK TX TX SC IA TX DE MS MI OH GA IN VA MI IN MS MI MS GA KS UT MI NC OH ID LA IA KY MD AL NC IL SD DE SC KY PA AZ DC GA OH RI MD
35 Least Competitive States Least Competitive States Rank 1 F Rank 1 G Rank 10 F Rank 10 G Avg 1-10 F Avg 1-10 G HI WA ME WA HI ME ME NC MA MT WA WA VT NE WY OR VT VT NM ND OR CO ME OR NE MD ND AZ OR FL AK GA NM NM WY AK WY OR MT AL ND CO FL WV ID MI FL MT GA WY AZ MS MT WY OK AK SD OH NM ND
36 Most Competitive States Overall Most Competitive State Rank 1 F Rank 1 G Rank 10 F Rank 10 G Avg 1-10 F Avg 1-10 G MI -1.9% -2.9% -3.1% -7.8% -2.3% -5.6% IN 0.7% -2.9% -3.8% -6.9% -2.1% -4.8% TX -2.3% -3.3% -2.4% -3.8% -2.2% -3.3% DE 0.6% -2.2% -2.6% -11.9% -0.2% -4.7% SC -0.2% -1.6% -3.4% -7.3% -2.3% -4.0%
37 Least Competitive States Overall Least Competitive State Rank 1 F Rank 1 G Rank 10 F Rank 10 G Avg 1-10 F Avg 1-10 G WA 1.2% 3.9% 3.5% 7.5% 4.5% 3.9% OR 1.6% 1.0% 3.4% -1.4% 3.6% 0.6% WY 2.9% 0.6% 3.4% -5.8% 2.5% -1.1% NM 3.4% -2.1% 2.1% -2.6% 2.1% -2.7% ND 0.9% 1.7% 2.3% -5.1% 2.3% -1.9%
38 Plan F Compression Chart Most Compressed Least Compressed State 10/1 F 15/5 F State 10/1 F 15/5 F PA 10.9% 7.7% DE 17.0% 21.9% TX 11.0% 9.9% OR 20.8% 16.6% UT 11.4% 11.0% WY 19.2% 16.8% KS 13.1% 9.4% VA 19.2% 15.0% CO 13.1% 9.7% NJ 14.0% 19.8%
39 Plan G Compression Chart Most Compressed Least Compressed State 10/1 G 15/5 G State 10/1 G 15/5 G PA 9.4% 7.9% DE 29.9% 49.1% AZ 14.3% 11.9% OR 27.6% 40.6% TX 14.0% 12.6% WY 22.7% 37.3% IL 13.3% 13.6% VA 23.8% 33.9% IN 13.5% 14.5% NJ 18.6% 38.2%
40 Summary of Findings Increasing compression among top 15 ranked companies More companies within X% of the lowest rate(s) 1% change in rates often worth 2, 3, even 4 ranks Decreasing and Flat rate trends Plan G has the largest negative rate trends Plan F has remained relatively flat Plan G looks a lot like Plan F competitively now
41 Summary of Findings Trends typically hold for: Both Male and Female Ages 70 and 75 Age 65 has mixed results depending on plan and state State Level Variations Large and medium states exhibiting more competitiveness than smaller states
42 Medigap Knowledge & Insights Learn more about what we do for the Medigap market at genre.com/medsupp
43 Rate Trends in the Marketplace What caused the Medicare Supplement market to become so compressed? 9 th National Medicare Supplement Summit, April 11-13, 2017 #medsupp2017
44 Rate Trends in the Marketplace What caused the Medicare Supplement market to become so compressed? # 1 - More companies in the Medicare Supplement market # 2 Lower claim trends 9 th National Medicare Supplement Summit, April 11-13, 2017 #medsupp2017
45 Rate Trends in the Marketplace Approximately 40% more companies in Med Supp market than 10 years ago 34 separate companies* in separate companies* in 2016 * At the parent company level, also counting BC/BS organizations as 1 9 th National Medicare Supplement Summit, April 11-13, 2017 #medsupp2017
46 Rate Trends in the Marketplace Why are there more companies in the Medicare Supplement market? # 1 Significant market expansion # 2 Stable and profitable market # 3 Limited barriers to entry 9 th National Medicare Supplement Summit, April 11-13, 2017 #medsupp2017
47 Rate Trends in the Marketplace Past & Projected Medicare Enrollment 9 th National Medicare Supplement Summit, April 11-13, 2017 #medsupp2017
48 Rate Trends in the Marketplace Past & Projected Medicare Sales 9 th National Medicare Supplement Summit, April 11-13, 2017 #medsupp2017
49 Rate Trends in the Marketplace Total Medicare Supplement Loss Ratios 9 th National Medicare Supplement Summit, April 11-13, 2017 #medsupp2017
50 Rate Trends in the Marketplace Continues to be limited barriers to market entry, key partners available in substantial quantities: Distribution Partners TPAs Reinsurers Actuarial / Product Development Support 9 th National Medicare Supplement Summit, April 11-13, 2017 #medsupp2017
51 Rate Trends in the Marketplace Lower Medicare Claim Trends 9 th National Medicare Supplement Summit, April 11-13, 2017 #medsupp2017
52 Rate Trends in the Marketplace.. Driving Lower Med Supp Rate Increases 9 th National Medicare Supplement Summit, April 11-13, 2017 #medsupp2017
53 Rate Trends in the Marketplace New companies pricing into the most competitive tier are staying competitive much longer due to lower claim trends and rate increases. 9 th National Medicare Supplement Summit, April 11-13, 2017 #medsupp2017
54 Rate Trends in the Marketplace And existing companies are staying competitive much longer. 9 th National Medicare Supplement Summit, April 11-13, 2017 #medsupp2017
55 Rate Trends in the Marketplace What does all of this mean for now and the future? 9 th National Medicare Supplement Summit, April 11-13, 2017 #medsupp2017
56 Rate Trends in the Marketplace Questions? 9 th National Medicare Supplement Summit, April 11-13, 2017 #medsupp2017
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