David Landry, P.Eng, Cameco Corporation. Nuclear Energy: Industry update and the implications for fluorspar

Transcription

1 David Landry, P.Eng, Cameco Corporation Nuclear Energy: Industry update and the implications for fluorspar

2 Safety Moment INPO - Lessons Learned from Fukushima Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Strong Safety Culture Organizations should focus on strengthening the application of safety culture principles associated with questioning attitude, decision making, the special & unique aspects of your technology and organizational learning

3 Safety Moment INPO - Lessons Learned from Fukushima How does your organization avoid group thinking or accepting unverified assumptions when making decisions that could effect safety? How would your organization provide the needed level of questioning and challenging of assumptions during a complex event? What additional approaches are used during an event when important decisions must be made relatively quickly? When discussing issues that could effect plant safety or reliability, how effective is your organization in asking What is the worst that could happen? How does your organization avoid complacency? Source: INPO Addendum August 2012

4 Overview Nuclear Energy & Fluorspar Key Market Drivers for Nuclear Energy Impact of Fukushima Nuclear Energy Outlook

5 Nuclear Energy & Fluorspar Conversion UF 6 95% UF 6 conversion requires approx. 1 mass unit of HF to convert 2 mass units of U from UO 3 to UF 6 HF production requires approx. 2 mass units of CaF 2 to produce 1 mass unit of HF Source: Cameco Corporation

6 Key Market Drivers for Nuclear Energy Rising global demand for energy Increasing global population Industrialization of emerging economies Increasing wealth of emerging economies Global climate change Pressure to reduce carbon emissions

7 Key Market Drivers for Nuclear Energy World Electricity Consumption (TWh) Source: World Energy Outlook 2011, OECD / International Energy Agency

8 Fukushima event recap March 11, 2011 Magnitude 9.0 Earthquake East coast of Japan Loss of multiple power sources Series of tsunamis Core melt at 3 reactor units Contamination of the surrounding area Comprehensive global safety review

9 Nuclear Energy Outlook Fukushima: Direct Impacts Japan 48 units operating 6 units permanently closed 46 units remain offline 2 allowed to restart Germany 9 units operating 8 units prematurely shutdown phase-out by 2022 Switzerland 5 units operating no new builds or license extensions phase-out by 2034 Belgium 7 units operating no license extensions phase-out by 2025 Italy referendum no Source: Cameco Corporation

10 Nuclear Energy Outlook Key Growth Countries China 12 GWe / 15 operating 26 under construction 50 planned GWe by 2020 ~160 GWe by 2030 Russia 24 GWe / 33 operating 10 under construction 18 planned 33 GWe by GWe by 2030 India 5 GWe / 20 operating 7 under construction 20 GWe by GWe by 2030 South Korea 22 GWe / 23 operating 4 under construction 29 GWe by GWe by 2030 Source: Cameco Corporation

11 Nuclear Energy Outlook Status: Other Growth UK moving forward sites approved US UAE Saudi Arabia South Africa Turkey Vietnam Poland Source: Cameco Corporation proceeding with new build proceeding with new build plans for large nuclear program renewed growth effort committed to nuclear plans to add nuclear plans to add nuclear 4 to 6 units by GWe by GWe by GWe by GWe by GWe by GWe by 2030

12 New Build Outlook Planned Reactors 2012 to 2021 Region / Country Source: Cameco Corporation Operable July 2012 New Shut Operable 2021 Change Americas Europe (3) Asia Other* India China Russia & E. Europe** Total *Other: Iran, Pakistan, South Africa, Turkey, United Arab Emirates **E. Europe: Armenia, Belarus, Ukraine

13 Nuclear Energy Outlook Expected Annual World Consumption million lbs U 3 O 8 Increase of 55 M lb U 3 O 8 or 21,200 mt U (avg annual growth rate = 3%) 230 Requires over 21,000 mt CaF 2 acid spar to produce sufficient HF quantity for UF 6 conversion Assumptions: Stoichiometric ratios, no HF from secondary sources, All U to UF 6 (Note ~95% of reactors are light water reactors) Source: Cameco Corporation

14 Summary Short Term: Some reactors shutdown Industry pause to learn from event Policy Long Term: Industry fundamentals remain sound Growth projected at 3% annual rate

15 Closing Summary World Electricity consumption to double over the next two decades Uranium consumption to grow at 3% per annum Acid spar required to support this growth is projected at 2000 mt per annum growth

16 Questions? David Landry, P.Eng, Cameco Corporation Port Hope, ON, Canada