2009 Ageing Report : Assessing the economic and budgetary consequences of ageing populations: (projections for the EU27 Member States)

Transcription

1 2009 Ageing Report : 1 Assessing the economic and budgetary consequences of ageing populations: (projections for the EU27 Member States) Giuseppe Carone (European Commission - DG ECFIN) Wien, 4 th December 2009

2 A unique collaboration 2 Projections for economic consequences of ageing and future public expenditure on pensions, health care, longterm care, education and unemployment transfers Repeat of projections carried out in 2001 and 2006 Joint project of Economic Policy Committee (EPC) and Commission (DG ECFIN) to ensure comparability while reflecting the diversity of welfare systems accross Member States Special time: crisis scenarios have been prepared. Will continue to monitor situation and evaluate the relevance of projections

3 Overview of 2009 projection exercise 3 Labour force Pensions National models - Participation - Employment - Unemployment Population Labour productivity GDP Health care Long-term care Total agerelated spending Real interest rate Education Unemployment benefits

4 Main demographic indicators 4 EU27 EA16 AT Fertility rate Life expectancy at birth - men Life expectancy at birth - women Total population (millions) Old-age dependency ratio Net migration flows (thousands) Net migration flows (as % of population)

5 Population projections: EUROPOP European Union x Median age

6 Population projections: EUROPOP Austria x Median age

7 The population in the EU27 grows older 7 Total population: millions in 2008, millions in 2060 (AT: from 8.3 to 9 ) Working-age population : millions in 2008, millions in 2060 (-15%) (AT: from 5.6 to 5 mil. : peak in 2020: 5.8) Population aged 65+ nearly doubles: 85 millions in 2008, 151 millions in 2060 (AT: from 1.4 to 2.6) Old-age dependency ratio (65+/15-64) doubles from 25 to 53 (AT: from 25.4 to 50.6)

8 Employment rates rise due to reforms and cohort effects 8 Males Females % EU27 15_19 20_24 25_29 30_34 35_39 40_44 45_49 50_54 55_59 60_64 65_71 Age groups Employment rates Males Employment rates Males % EU _19 20_24 25_29 30_34 35_39 40_44 45_49 50_54 55_59 60_64 65_71 Age groups Employment rates Females Employment rates Females

9 Increase in participation rates due to pension reforms (p.p.) EU27 EA EU10 AT Total (15-64) Older (55-64)

10 Projected employment rates and the Lisbon targets Total Female Older workers Lisbon target (p) 2020 (p) 2040 (p) 2060 (p) (p) 2020 (p) 2040 (p) 2060 (p) (p) 2020 (p) 2040 (p) 2060 (p)

11 The consequences of ageing populations on employment EU27 - BASELINE Employment rate Working-age population Employment total employment working-age population "employment rate (right scale)" Phase 1 : rising employment and slow growth in working-age population. Phase 2 : rising employment, declining working-age population. Phase 3 : both employment and working-age population decline

12 The consequences of ageing populations on employment (2) AT - BASELINE Employment rate Working-age population Employment total employment working-age population "employment rate (right scale)" Phase 1 : rising employment and slow growth in working-age population. Phase 2 : since 2020 both employment and working-age population decline

13 Productivity 13 labour productivity : 1.7 % by 2050 TFP assumptions is key : - convergence to 1.1% by 2050 for all (DK, IE, FI, SE, UK: by from above 1.1 in 2008) + Contr. from capital deepening: 0.6% in 2050 = (1- α)* K/L or TFP(1-α)/ α (α=labour share = 0.65) - long run capital rule: capital stock = E +labour augmenting technical progress (or TFP/ α ), thus capital/labour ratio in efficiency units constant

14 Potential growth rates decline due to shrinking working age populations. Productivity becomes the dominant source of growth EU AT Labour productivity growth and Employment growth GDP growth 2.3 GDP p. capita growth E LP LP LP GDP growth Labour productivity growth and Employment growth E LP GDP growth GDP p. capita growth 1.6 LP 1.5 LP GDP growth 0.0 E E E E Labour productivity growth Employment growth GDP growth GDP per capita growth Labour productivity growth Employment growth GDP growth GDP per capita growth

15 Overview of 2009 projection exercise 15 Population Labour force - Participation - Employment - Unemployment Labour productivity Real interest rate GDP Pensions National models (10.2% GDP) Health care (6.7% GDP) Long-term care (1.2% GDP) Education (4.3% GDP) Total agerelated spending (23% GDP i.e. 50% of public expenditure) Unemployment Benefits (0.8% GDP)

16 PENSION PROJECTIONS: Projected changes in public pension expenditure ( in percentage points) 16 PL SE LV IT EE DK FR AT BE NO IE LT NL SK FI CZ BG HU EA UK EU27 DE PT ES MT +0.1 p.p. RO SI +2.4 p.p. CY EL LU Social Security Pension /GDP

17 Decomposition of the increase in pension expenditure 17 Dependency Employment effect effect PensExp = Pop>65 x Pop (15-64) GDP Pop(15-64) Empl Coverage effect Benefit effect x Pensioners x PensExp/Pensioners Pop>65 GDP/Empl

18 Factors contributing to pension expenditure changes (% of GDP) 18 (%) of GDP) Dependency ratio Coverage ratio Employment effect Benefit ratio Interaction effect Total EU27 EA AT

19 Ageing or retirement problem? Retirement age: effective and statutory 19 Exit age lower than statutory retirement age Prevalence of alternative exit pathways present Early pensions Other government spending schemes (unempl. benefit, disability, prepension,...) Private savings? Age Male Female Male Female EU27 AT Average exit age Average exit age Statutory retirement age

20 Ageing or retirement problem? 20 EU Employment rate of older workers Average exit age Life expectancy at the time of withdrawal % of adult life spent in retirement 23% 30% 31% 35% Requested exit postponement, in years (to keep % life spent in retirement constant) AT Employment rate of older workers Average exit age Life expectancy at the time of withdrawal % of adult life spent in retirement 27% 32% 35% 36% Requested exit postponement, in years (to keep % life spent in retirement constant) Men Men Women Women

21 HEALTH CARE PROJECTIONS: Simple basic methodology, but several sensitivity tests possible 21 Input data: POPULATION PROJECTIONS AGE-RELATED UNIT COST * EXPENDITURE * DEVELOPMENT = PROFILES TOTAL SPENDING ON HEALTH CARE Sensitivity tests: (1) Alternative demographic projections (2) Health status (2a) Income elasticity of demand (3) Alternative patterns of unit cost evolution

22 Health care costs increase with age 22 25% % of GDP per capita 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% EU15 - Males EU15 - Females EU12 - Males EU12 - Females AT - Males AT - Females

23 Projected increase in health care expenditure EU15 and EU12 23 EU15: from 0.7 to 2.4 (even 4.2% if technology is incorporated) EU12: from 0.2 to 2.8 (even 4.2% if convergence is incorporated) AT : from 0.7 to 2.6 (even 4.2% if technology is incorporated) EU15 5 EU % of GDP ConstantDeath-related health costs scenario scenario change AWG reference scenario EU15 Pure demographic scenario EU12 Income elasticity scenario High life expectancy Labour intensity scenario Technology Cost scenario convergence (conv. 30 scenario years)

24 Model structure for long-term care 24 Population by age and gender Size of the disabled population Formal care at home Formal care in institutions Unit cost of care at home Unit cost of care at institution Total spending Informal care Cash benefits and disability transfers Alternative demographic projections Changes in disability rates Increase in formal care provision Alternative patterns of unit cost evolution

25 Projection of dependent population 25 Thousands (Composition) EU27 Thousands AT Increase: Increase: % +90% +82% +59% 59% +150% +123% (Composition) +126% +96% +51% +18% +144% +114% 27% +185% +160% 24% 14% pure demographic 2060 constant disability pure demographic 2060 constant disability 31% 46% +192% +136% formal care in institutions formal care at home informal or no care formal care in institutions formal care at home informal or no care

26 Change in long-term care expenditure (in percent of GDP) 26...can increase in a range of about 1 to 2 pp...can increase in a range of about 1.1 to 1.6 pp 4 % of GDP EU27 4 % of GDP AT Pure demographic Fast growth Constant disability Slow growth Per capita Shift informal to home Shift informal to institutional Shift informal to home/institutional AWG reference scenario Pure demographic Fast grow th Constant disability Slow grow th Per capita Shift informal to home Shift informal to institutional Shift informal to home/institutional AWG reference scenario

27 The Cost of Ageing (change in percentage points) (1) 27 (% of GDP) Change AT EU Pensions Health care Long-term care Unemployment benefits Education Total 0-5

28 The Cost of Ageing, variety in the EU (change in percentage points) Total Cost of Ageing, % of GDP PL EE LV IT D K SE F R AT PT BG H U EU27 D EU K SK LT C Z F I BE IE ES N O N L R O M T C Y SI EL LU

29 A special time 29 Crisis, uncertainty Link ageing policies with measures to fight the crisis Special crisis scenarios have been prepared Will continue to monitor situation and evaluate the relevance of projections

30 Crisis scenarios: potential GDP growth under different shocks (1) (based on Spring 2009 Forecasts) 4.0 EU27 - potential GDP growth Baseline Rebound Lost decade Permanent shock

31 Crisis scenarios: GDP per capita levels under different shocks (2) (based on Spring 2009 Forecasts) 31 EU27, GDP per capita, diff. from baseline (in %) Rebound Lost decade Permanent shock Austria, GDP per capita, diff. from baseline (in %) Rebound Lost decade Permanent shock

32 Crisis scenarios: pension & total expenditure under different shocks 32 EU27, Pension expenditure, change in p.p of GDP, EU27, Cost of Ageing, change in p.p of GDP, AT (+1.3) +0.9 AT (+2.7) AT (+1.5) +1.4 AT (+3.1) Baseline Rebound Lost decade Permanent shock 0 Baseline Rebound Lost decade Permanent shock

33 What do the projections tell us? (1) 33 The EU needs to get out of the crisis and get back on the path of high and stable growth: for this to occur, a credible and coordinated exit strategy building on structural reforms also in the area of welfare policies, as to restore confidence in the public finances. The EU is facing a retirement challenge and not an ageing challenge, stemming from European social models of yesterday not being apt for tomorrow. The transformation of the European social models not restricted to pension policy - need to be intensified. On pension policy, reforms carried out suggest that sustainable public systems are within reach for many MS, although some have still a long way to go (retirement age needs to increase in line with longevity).

34 What do the projections tell us? (2) 34 Ageing leads to strong increase in health care and long term care spending. Health status drives demand for care. Supply side factors (technology, prices in health care sector, institutional setting) are expected to push up spending (but difficult to model) There is considerable scope for making HC & LTC systems more efficient. Better value for money in health care and reduced health inequalities can be achieved by strengthening primary care, prevention and health promotion and through better coordination and rational use of resources.

35 The full report can be found at DG ECFINs website: 35 blications/publication_summary14911_e n.htm Thank you for your attention