Improving the quality of public finance an analytical framework 2018 Ludwig Erhard Lecture
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1 Improving the quality of public finance an analytical framework 2018 Ludwig Erhard Lecture Marco Buti Director-General Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission Lisbon Council The 2018 Euro Summit: Beyond Austerity: Why Quality Public Finance is Key to Prosperity and How Governments Can Deliver It Brussels, 17 December
2 Outline Back to fundamentals: QPF in MUSGRAVE + Allocation, Sustainability, Stabilisation and Redistribution: role of QPF Delivery models at national and EU level Conclusions
3 MUSGRAVE + and QPF Allocation (QPF for improving efficient resource allocation and insurance models (UB)) Sustainability (Population ageing challenges, ensuring fiscal sustainability, DSA) Stabilisation (EA and national fiscal stance) Redistribution (QPF for pre and post market policies) National and EU dimension (delivery models)
4 Allocation Public spending and growth Growth-friendly Interest expenditures Other Composition of public spending, euro area, % of GDP
5 Allocation Public investment: crucial for jobs and growth Impact of the crisis in the euro area Crisis legacy: large investment gap in the euro area Source: AMECO A big part of the gap comes from construction Intangible investment makes the gap smaller
6 Education: expenditure vs quality of education (Pisa scores) 530 EE Allocation 520 FI PISA mean score PL CZ LV LT HR HU PT SI ES DE UK IE NL DK BE FR SE AT IT Input orientation LU RO SK BG EL MT Output orientation CY ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Public expenditure per pupil on primary and secondary education (average )
7 Allocation Health care: expenditure vs life expectancy Production Function Life expectancy (adjusted) HR EE LV RO LT BG CY PL ES IE PT SI EL IT CZ HU MT SK UK FI output orientation SE BE input orientation AT DK FR NL LU DEA Boot CI DE Per capita health expenditure in PPP - Health PPP (adjusted) Output: life expectancy at birth (adjusted for lifestyle) Input: per capita health expenditure in PPP (adjusted for lifestyle)
8 Allocation Quality of public revenues: Tax burden on labour Tax wedge on labour, single earner, average wage (2017) Tax wedge on labour, single earner, 50% of average wage (2017) BE DE IT FR AT SI Income tax FI LV SK PT LT EL ES EE NL LU IE MT Employee contributions EU EA Employer contributions EU average OECD DE LV AT EE IT BE SI LT SK EL FI ES PT FR LU NL MT Income tax Employer contributions Employee contributions IE EU EA OECD
9 Sustainability Debt developments in large EU countries 9 Government debt ratio (% of GDP) Source: Ameco
10 Sustainability Pension spending vs pension adequacy NL EE LT LV UK SE DE RO CZ MT DK IE HR SK FI ES LU HU BE SI CY PT IT AT PL EL FR BG Relative public pension expenditures, %
11 Fiscal stance, EA, (Commission 2018 autumn forecast) Stabilisation Fiscal stance: correcting pro-cyclicality
12 Rebuild fiscal buffers and use fiscal space where it exists The fiscal stance, fiscal sustainability challenges and the cyclical position in 2019 (Commission 2018 autumn forecast) Stabilisation
13 Stabilisation Strengthening automatic stabilizers 13
14 Redistribution Tax and benefit systems to reduce income inequality and poverty SK SE NL DK PL HU SI CZ LU EE LV AT BE DE FI LT FR UK IT ES PT IE EL OECD EU 0 Gini (disposable income, post taxes and transfers) Impact of transfers Impact of taxes Gini (market income, before taxes and transfers)
15 Redistribution Better performing welfare systems 30 At-risk-of-poverty rate LV RO BG EE PL LT MT SK CZ CY IT PT HU SI EL ES UK LU AT FI SE IE DE DK y = x R² = BE NL FR social protection expenditures excluding pensions (% GDP)
16 16 Delivery models: national level Spending reviews How can spending reviews enhance the quality of public finance? 1. Promoting allocative efficiency 2. Improving value for money 3. Freeing up fiscal space Eurogroup s Common Principles on spending reviews (September 2016) Strong and sustained political commitment Best practices in design, conduct and implementation Monitoring and communication to the public Consistency with budget planning and fiscal framework
17 Delivery models: EU level The European Semester as a tool to improve QPF Considerations about the quality of public finance play a prominent role in the Country-Specific Recommendations On the revenue side the main focus is on: Lowering the tax burden on labour in a budget neutral way, especially by reducing tax wedge for low-wage earners combined with a shift to taxes least detrimental to growth - such as recurrent property and environmental taxes (directly recommended to 16 Member States) Broadening tax base by removing distortive tax expenditures, broadening the tax base on consumption (20 Member States) Improving tax compliance by applying specific measures and enacting broader compliance strategies (17 Member States) On the expenditure side we promote: Safeguarding growth-enhancing expenditure such as on research, innovation and education. Making space for productivity enhancing investment (8 Member States) Increasing effectiveness of public spending, including by recommending spending reviews (15 Member States)
18 Delivery models: EU level The European Semester as tool to improve QPF Level of implementation of QPF CSRs lags behind progress towards achieving the SGP-related targets and below the overall implementation of CSRs
19 Conclusions Population ageing and the changing world of work call for strengthening the QPF. Well-designed public spending and taxes support growth, sustainability and inclusiveness for all. Composition matters for growth more than the deficit. Restoring investment is essential for jobs and growth. Spending reviews is a good way to monitor and evaluate policies at national level. How does the EU help to improve QPF? Ø Sharing best practices Ø CSRs Ø Flexibility clauses in the SGP Ø New tools: New EU public good in MFF proposal, InvestEU, EISF, RDT
20 Thank you for your attention!
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