Trust, Statistics & Knowledge Evidence from the EC Special Eurobarometer survey 2009

Transcription

1 Charting Progress, Building Visions, Improving Life Busan, Korea - 27 October 2009 Trust, Statistics & Knowledge Evidence from the EC Special Eurobarometer survey 2009 Marco Mira d Ercole (OECD), A. Papacostas(Eurobarometer) The 3 rd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy

2 Outline Findings from Special Eurobarometer survey 2009 (more available on Special EUROBAROMETER 323) Implications: is more statistical information adding to people s knowledge? 2

3 Special EB survey on Europeans knowledge of economic indicators Goal: Measure knowledge in basic economic statistics and trust in the official statistical system Methods: face-to-face interviews with around 1000 people per country (27 European countries) Fieldwork: September 2009 (with previous survey conducted in March-April 2007) Responses based on open questions: correct answers are those falling within range of +/- 20% of actual value 3

4 Main results: GDP growth What was the official growth rate of the economy (measured in terms of Gross Domestic Product) in (OUR COUNTRY) in 2008? I can tell you that this figure is between -1% and 15% % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% RO LV PT CY MT BG EL LU UK IT PL FR LT CZ UE27 EU27 EE IE SI SK DK FI DE ES HU SE BE AT NL QA50 EBS 67.2 DK Correct answer Wrong answer QC1T EBS

5 Main results: inflation What was the official inflation rate, the rate of which consumer prices increased or decreased, in (OUR COUNTRY) in 2008? I can tell you that the exact figure is between -1% and 20% % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% PT RO MT CY BG LU IT UK EE LT LV FR CZ UE27 EU27 SK EL PL SI DK SE DE IE ES FI BE AT HU NL DK Correct answer Wrong answer QA52 EBS 67.2 QC2 EBS

6 Main results: unemployment What was the official unemployment rate, the percentage of active people who do not have a job, in (OUR COUNTRY) in 2008? I can tell you that the exact figure is between 0% and 20% % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% RO MT CY PT BG UK IT LT LV EE UE27 EU27 IE FR LU PL SI CZ SK DE ES EL AT DK QA54 EBS 67.2 DK Correct answer Wrong answer QC4 EBS FI HU NL BE SE

7 How has Europeans statistical knowledge changed over time? GDP growth QA54 EBS 67.2 QC4 EBS

8 How has Europeans statistical knowledge changed over time? Inflation QA54 EBS 67.2 QC4 EBS

9 How has Europeans statistical knowledge changed over time? Unemployment QA54 EBS 67.2 QC4 EBS

10 Unemployment rate in 2008 in % Differences in perceptions among countries with the same unemployment rate Share of respondents by number of correct answers QC8.1 For each of the following domains, would you say that the situation in (OUR COUNTRY) is better or less good than the average of the European Union countries? The employment situation in (OUR COUNTRY) - % EU 12 ES SK 9 LV HU EL PL PT IT UE FR DE BE RO LT BG EE IE CZ MT SI UK CY FI SE AT LU DK NL The employment situation in (OUR COUNTRY) (difference "better" - "worse") in % 10

11 11 How is statistical knowledge distributed in society? (a) Share of respondents by number of correct answers

12 How is statistical knowledge Socio-economic characteristics of correct answers? distributed in society? (b) Certain groups are more likely to answer correctly (i.e. men, highly educated people, managers, white collars workers) Positive but weaker effects for other variables (e.g. those with internet connections and those who have little difficulty in paying their household bills) Overall, even people who are very educated and in managerial positions have very low levels of statistical knowledge (e.g. 22% of managers and 18% of people with more than 20 years of education for question on UNR) 12

13 13 Importance? of statistics QC5 Some people say that statistical information play an important role in business, public and political decision making. Personally, do you think that, in (OUR COUNTRY), political decisions are made on the basis of statistical information? - % EU Yes, certainly Yes, probably No, probably not No, certainly not DK EB 72.1 Aug.-Sep % 45% 19% 8% 12% EB 67.2 Mar.-Apr % 46% 20% 6% 12% 0% 100%

14 14 Trust in official? statistics QC6 Personally, how much trust do you have in the official statistics in (OUR COUNTRY), for example the statistics on unemployment, inflation or economic growth? Would you say that you tend to trust these official statistics or tend not to trust them? - % EU Tend to trust Tend not to trust DK EB 72.1 Aug.-Sep % 46% 10% EB 67.2 Mar.-Apr % 45% 9% 0% 100%

15 15 Is more statistical information adding to people s knowledge? (a) Context Information play crucial role in shaping expectations and outcomes; democratic accountability requires knowledge of the outputs/outcomes delivered by various policies Massive developments of ICT in past few years have significantly reduced the costs of producing statistics Statistics have become more accessible but plethora of information can create confusion rather than contribute to people s knowledge

16 Is more statistical information adding to people s knowledge? (b) 16 Implications for official statistics The traditional role of NSOs is at stake: NSOs have traditionally functioned as information providers They need to change to become knowledge builders, measuring their impact (also) by looking at the extent to which they contribute to societal knowledge They need to expand the boundary of their activity, to cover communication, numeracy, impact assessment, etc.

17 Is more statistical information adding to people s knowledge? (b) Implications for functioning of democratic institutions In a world of costly information, citizens will spend more efforts in gathering information bearing on their private decisions than on public policies Votes face the difficult task of monitoring the activities of large hierarchies staffed by people who have information and expertise unavailable to the average voter The relation between trust in statistics and trust in public institutions in therefore crucial 17

18 Trust in Statistics and in Institutions 18

19 19 OECD work on trust OECD Electronic Group on Measurement of trust in official statistics What Do Citizens Know about statistics? The results of an OECD/ ISAE survey on Italian Consumers, ISAE/OECD 2007 and 2009 Statistics, Knowledge and Governance, OECD 2008 How good is trust? Measuring trust and its role for the progress of societies, OECD 2009

20 20 Thank you for your attention!