Investment and Investment Finance open questions?

Transcription

1 Investment and Investment Finance open questions? COMPNET 13 th ANNUAL CONFERENCE CHIEF ECONOMISTS PANEL 29 June 2017 Debora Revoltella Economics Department European Investment Bank

2 Key issues Questions - Is economic recovery enough? Strengthening growth and investment and the consequences of the crisis Potential growth and productivity Investment needs and constraints Infrastructure investment needs and constraints Technological change and adoption of innovation Winners and losers Policy action and challenges Data Issues Macro data and survey data Coordinated approach European Investment Bank Group 2

3 Improving economy and investment 4 Real GDP and contribution of aggregate expenditure components % change yoy 2 Real GFCF and contribution of institutional sectors relative to Q1 11Q4 12Q3 13Q2 14Q1 14Q4 15Q3 16Q2 17Q1 Source: Eurostat Net exports Changes in inventories Gross fixed capital formation Household final consumption Government final consumption GDP Q Q Q Financial corporations Households and NPISH Total Q Q Government Q Non-financial corporations European Investment Bank Group 3

4 Infrastructure investment remains a drag,due to policy choices Infrastructure Investment % of GDP Change in composition of General Government expenditure, difference in percentage points, EU-28 Euro area Government Non Project Corporate Non Project Current Expenditure Interest Capital Expenditure PPP Non PPP Projects Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat European Investment Bank Group 4

5 Corporate investment is strengthening, but past investment has left investment gaps Reported Adequacy of past Investment Investment Gap and Quality of Capital % % 46% Machinery and Equipment that is State of the Art 30% 41% Building Stock that is energy efficient gap no gap Base: All firms (excluding Company didn t exist three years ago responses) Q. Looking back at your investment over the last 3 years, was it too much, too little, or about the right amount to ensure the success of your business going forward? Base: All firms Q. What proportion, if any, of your machinery and equipment, including ICT, would you say i state-of-the-art? Q. What proportion, if any, of your commercial building stock satisfies high or highest energ efficiency standards? European Investment Bank Group 5 5

6 Barriers to Investment Business regulation as a barrier by sector 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% All construction infrastructure manufacturing services European Investment Bank Group 6

7 Access is an issue for some Access to Finance among Investing Firms Share of investing firms that are happy to rely excl. on internal funds 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% high availability of internal sources; low external barriers LU SE CZ FI EE FR DK BE AT DE PL UK ES SK NL IT LV SL High availability of internal sources; high external barriers 5% little availability of little availability of internal sources; low internal sources; high 0% external barriers external barriers 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Share of investing firms that are external finance constrained Base: All firms Finance constrained firms include: those that invested which dissatisfied with the amount of finance obtained (received less), firms that sought external finance but did not receive it (rejected) and those who did not seek external finance because they thought borrowing costs would be too high (too expensive) or they would be turned down (discouraged) Firms happy to use internal funds are those that invested using exclusively internal funds and who stated that they did not seek any external finance because they were satisfied with their internal funds. RO LT IR MT CY BG HR European Investment Bank Group 7 HU EL PT

8 Questions Is economic recovery enough? Are there gaps, taking into account long term trends? Winners and losers Micro-analysis is Key Efficiency in the allocation of resources Policy action and challenges Can we shift policy options towards long term thinking? Efficiency vs short term objectives Sustainable growth? European Investment Bank Group 8

9 Key issues Is economic recovery enough? Strengthening growth and investment and the consequences of the crisis Potential growth and productivity Investment needs and constraints Infrastructure investment needs and constraints Technological change and adoption of innovation Winners and losers Policy action and challenges Data Issues Macro data and survey data Coordinated approach European Investment Bank Group 9

10 Data issues : Availability and quality of data on investment critical to support effective policy making No official statistics on infrastructure investment EIB estimates on investment in infrastructure sectors (i.e. education, health, transport, ICT and utilities) based on data from Eurostat and Projectware Private infrastructure investment = Total infrastructure GFCF Government infrastructure GFCF Corporate non-project = Private infrastructure investment PPP projects non-ppp projects Official estimates from national accounts on intangible investment include software, databases, R&D, mineral exploration But do not cover design, financial innovation, advertising, market research, organisational capital or firm training (INTAN-invest) Firm-level data on intangibles from EIBIS and Eurostat CIS European Investment Bank Group 10

11 Key issues Is economic recovery enough? Strengthening growth and investment and the consequences of the crisis Potential growth and productivity Investment needs and constraints Infrastructure investment needs and constraints Technological change and adoption of innovation Winners and losers Policy action and challenges Data Issues Macro data and survey data Coordinated approach European Investment Bank Group 11

12 EIB catalytic on investment analysis EIB wishing to be Catalytic for research in investment and investment finance in Europe Collaborations with international organizations and top academics on the topic of investment and investment finance Building on: EIB annual Investment report (the EIB Investment Survey); Annual Investment Conference; Annual country conferences with central banks Internal country workshops Strong links with ComPNET for micro-analysis! European Investment Bank Group 12

13 Thank you! European Investment Bank Group 13