2. Scenario Planning. Accomplishments Over the Past Five Years

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1 2. Scenario Planning Accomplishments Over the Past Five Years For this update of the Metropolitan Transportation Plan, the Alamo Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) again used scenario planning as an integral part of the planning process. The scenario development process for the expanded MPO boundary was a much more inclusive process and the selected scenario is more reasonable than the one selected for the 2009 Plan. For this update of the Plan, three demographic scenarios: 1) 15-year Past Trend, 2) 5-Year Past Trend and 3) Activity Centers were developed, tested for their impacts on the transportation system and received a significant amount of public review prior to the MPO s Transportation Policy Board unanimously adopting a growth scenario on March 24, 2014 to use in the development of the Plan. The selected scenario reflects population and employment growth patterns that have been occurring primarily over the past five years. Background By 2040 an additional 1.5 million people will raise the region s population to over 3.4 million bringing another million motor vehicles to already congested roadways. The MPO planning process to update the long range transportation plan relies on the development and evaluation of population and employment growth scenarios for the region. Scenario Planning was initiated to engage residents and policy makers in a discussion of the region s future growth and development patterns. Scenario planning enhances the traditional transportation planning process by raising awareness of citizens and decision makers of the factors that affect growth and impact our transportation system. Factors include an aging population, land use policies, economics, and environmental concerns. In scenario planning, citizens and policy makers are asked to consider alternative approaches, or scenarios to shaping the region and understanding the differences between each approach. The ultimate goal is to create a sustained quality of life for citizens and visitors in our region. Scenario planning enables communities and transportation agencies to better prepare for the future. It highlights the major forces that may shape the future and identifies how the various forces might interact, rather than attempting to predict one specific outlook. As a result, regional decision makers are prepared to recognize various forces to make more informed decisions in the present and be better able to adjust and strategize to meet tomorrow's needs. MOBILITY Adopted on December 8, 2014

2 The growth scenarios also help to: Explore how decisions today might affect future outcomes, Understand how external factors beyond our control may impact the future, Ask what it would take to achieve certain outcomes, Spark people s imaginations about possible futures; and ultimately Identify a preferred scenario The premise of scenario planning is that it is better to get the future imprecisely right than to get the future precisely wrong. Predictions of the future are never exactly correct. Rather than picking one definitive picture of the future and planning for that future, scenario planning allows a region to consider various possibilities and identify policies that can adapt to changing circumstances. Scenarios do not describe a forecasted end but are stories about future conditions that convey a range of possible outcomes. The scenario planning process can help people understand the forces of change and the choices they have. Three Growth Scenarios Scenario 1 (15 year trend) Assumptions Population and employment follow a trend seen over the past 15 years Primarily low density development People live in the suburbs and work in the central city Consistent with current land use plans and policies Pros Little needs to change or happen to drive this growth pattern because it is consistent with current market-driven development patterns Cons Increased distance between housing and jobs leads to increased vehicle miles traveled and contributes to hours of delay Highest cost of infrastructure to support this scenario MOBILITY Adopted on December 8, 2014

3 Scenario 2 (5 year trend) Assumptions Pros Follows recent (past 5 years) trend For Bexar County this is infill development that is primarily medium- to higher-density and supports increased use of alternative modes of transportation For Comal, Guadalupe and Kendall counties this shows development patterns similar to the 15 year trend More sustainable development pattern Initial groundwork is there to support continued infill in Bexar County and to explore infill in other counties Cons Counties do not have zoning capabilities Requires changes in attitudes towards land use and transportation Needs to be supported through policy MOBILITY Adopted on December 8, 2014

4 Scenario 3 (Activity Centers/Corridors) Assumptions Population and employment growth occurs at activity centers and key transportation corridors Produces highest density of the three scenarios Results in people living closer to where they work Increases active transportation modes and transit use Pros More sustainable development pattern People live closer to where they work so they travel shorter distances Cons Counties do not have zoning capabilities Requires changes in attitudes towards land use and transportation Needs to be supported through more pro-active policy decisions and economic incentives for developers and employers it is the hardest to implement MOBILITY Adopted on December 8, 2014

5 Table 2.1 shows the comparison between the 2010 base year and the three population and employment growth scenarios. Table 2.1 Comparison of the 2010 Base Year and Three Proposed Population and Employment Growth Scenarios Performance Measure Total Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel Total Daily Vehicle Hours of Travel Total Daily Vehicle Hours of Delay 2010 Base Year 15 Year Trend 5 Year Trend Activity Centers 48,896,300 98,486,800 97,754,600 93,032,300 1,722,400 7,235,900 6,055,600 5,548, ,600 4,358,100 3,218,700 2,837,000 Total Daily Cost of Delay $6,474,100 $73,172,500 $54,041,200 $47,632,900 Average System Speed 28 mph 14 mph 16 mph 17 mph Additional Lane Mile Equivalents (to maintain current levels of congestion) Construction Costs (to maintain current levels of congestion) 840 8,976 8,189 7,690 $1.95B $25.17B $21.74B $21.60B Growth Scenario Adoption On March 24, 2014, the MPO Transportation Policy Board adopted Scenario 2 with certain refinements as the population and employment growth scenario to use in the update of the Metropolitan Transportation Plan. MOBILITY Adopted on December 8, 2014

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