Key Economic Indicators *

Transcription

1 November 2017 Volume XXXIV Number 11 ISSN ANNUAL LABOUR MARKET REVIEW Employment declined by 0.2% in 2017, the second worst performance among the provinces and the second year in a row with an employment drop. The number of people unemployed and the unemployment rate were effectively unchanged but the number of people exiting the labour force increased. Other selected employment trends during the year are listed below. Employment increased among women and older workers. It fell among men and those 15 to 24 years of age. The proportion of workers with a post-secondary education continued to increase but is still the second lowest among the provinces. Aboriginal employment increased substantially among off-reserve residents with a particularly large increase among those with a First Nations identity. Employment fell among recent immigrants but grew among those who have been in Canada longer. Part-time employment among those who would rather have full-time employment increased sharply; full-time employment and voluntary part-time employment declined. Self-employment declined whereas paid employment increased, particularly among those in temporary or casual positions. Wage rates were effectively unchanged in 2017 but are still the second highest among the provinces. Key Economic Indicators * Canada Employment (Dec) 2.4% (0.1%) 1.9% 2.4% Retail Sales (Oct) 8.0% 7.0% 5.5% 7.3% Urban Housing Starts (Dec) (14%) (4%) 127% 7% Consumer Prices (Nov) 2.5% 3.7% 3.2% 2.1% Manufacturing Shipments (Nov) 11.3% 16.5% (0.6%) 6.7% Farm Cash Receipts (Q3) 6.9% 6.7% 3.5% 3.8% Average Hourly Wage Rates (Dec) 3.2% 0.1% 2.5% 2.7% Population (end of Q3) 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% * percentage change from the same period a year ago; negative numbers in parenthesis

2 Page 2 November LABOUR MARKET REVIEW I n 2017, the number of Saskatchewan residents with a job fell for the second year in a row. The decline was small but a two-year slump is rare; the last time it happened was a generation ago when employment dropped every year over the four years from 1989 to This article examines the drop in employment, where it occurred, in what kinds of jobs, and among what kinds of people. Throughout this exercise, keep in mind that the decline was small (about 1,000 jobs) and that this modest two-year slump follows a ten-year period with growth averaging 1.8% per year. Before we get to that, the section below looks at the one in three Saskatchewan adults who were not working last year. Population and Unemployment Grow For labour market purposes, Statistics Canada divides the adult population (deemed as those fifteen years of age and older) into three categories the employed, the unemployed, and those who are not in the labour force. (The labour force is the sum of the employed and the unemployed.) From 2016 to 2017, the adult population increased by 7,800 so the size of the pie in Figure 1 increased by 0.9% to 876,800. In an average month in 2017, the number of adults who were employed dropped by 0.2% to 567,600 from 568,500 in 2016 the equivalent of 900 fewer individuals who were working. Their share of the pie (i.e. the employment rate) was 64.7%, down from 65.4% in The number of individuals who were unemployed, that is not working but actively looking for work, in an average month in 2017 was 38,000 which is down slightly from the 38,300 last year. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed divided by the labour force. The rate was unchanged at 6.3% in The province has lost its reputation for having the lowest unemployment rate in Canada; the 6.3% was the fifth lowest in Canada and the same as the national average. Two measures show that the severity of unemployment is increasing. The average length of unemployment increased to 19 weeks compared with 14 weeks in a normal labour market. The number of unemployed who have been looking for longer than six months increased to 7,800 from 2,000 to 3,000 a few years ago. There are two general facts about the LFS that should be kept in mind when looking at these numbers. Firstly, the survey is not conducted on Reserves so all of the figures include only the population living off-reserve. Secondly, the LFS measures the labour force status according to where you live not where you work. For example, people who live in Saskatchewan and commute to work in Alberta are counted in the Saskatchewan figures and vice versa. The labour force the sum of the employed and the unemployed was 605,600 individuals in 2017, leaving 271,300 persons who were not in the labour force. These are adults who were neither working nor actively looking for work. From 2016 to 2017, the number who were out of the labour force grew by 3.5% with most of the increase among those 55 and older. Figure 2 shows the increase in the number of people in the primary labour market age group (25 to 54 years of age) who were not in the labour force. Some of the characteristics of these 53,700 persons are listed below. 69% were women. 15% were recent immigrants. 21% were Aboriginal. 20% had never worked. 22% had less than a grade 12 education. 13% were going to school. 41% had children under 6 years of age at home. This group of individuals, along with the unemployed, will be an important source of workers when the labour market recovers even though some of them will have chosen to be out of the labour market. Finding work will be difficult for those with less than Grade 12 and/or who have never worked. With affordable and available child care, it will be easier for the large group of women who are at home looking after young children. Employed 567, % Figure 1: Labour Force Status of the Saskatchewan Population 15 & Older, 2017 (n=876,800) Unemployed 38, % Not in the labour force, , % Not in the labour force, , % Not in the labour force, 55 & older 170, %

3 Page 3 November 2017 In the balance of this article, our focus is on the 567,600 individuals who were employed in 2017 the green slice in Figure 1 and how that group has changed from 2016 to Employment Growth Figure 3 shows that the 0.2% employment decline in 2017 followed a 0.9% decline in The relatively modest two-year slump ended a stretch of much large increases from 2005 to 2015 during which employment increased by an average of 1.8% per year. In effect, the number of people working now is near the number working in Figure 4 looks at the month-by-month employment using seasonally adjusted data, that is, after adjusting for normal seasonal ups-and-downs. Except for an upward spike in February and a downward spike in October/November, employment has been effectively constant for the two years starting in February Interprovincial Comparison In eight of the ten provinces, employment increased last year (see Figure 5). There were particularly large increases in three of the four largest provinces B.C., Quebec, and Ontario keeping the national average growing at near 2%. The employment decline in Saskatchewan last year was, next to Newfoundland, the worst showing. Over a longer term, the five-year period from 2012 to 2017 for example, Saskatchewan s average annual growth rate of 0.7% is better, sixth among the ten provinces, but still below the national average of 1.1%. Age and Sex With the boom in construction and the resource sector, employment had been growing more quickly among men than among women in recent years. That trend stopped in 2015 and the old pattern returned. Figure 6 shows that the employment decline in 2017 occurred among men; employment increased by 0.4% among women. In recent years, there has been a dramatic increase in employment among older workers, taken to be those 55 years of age and older. This trend continued in 2017 with employment growth of 1.9% among those 55 to 64 and an even larger increase of 4.9% among those 65 and older. Part of the increase is because the population in these age groups is growing but the employment rate among older workers is also increasing. In 2017, 41.7% of those 55 years of age and older were working compared with 41.2% in 2012 and 35.5% in % 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Figure 2: Population 25 to 54 Years Not in the Labour Force, Saskatchewan thousands Figure 3: Annual Growth Rate, Saskatchewan Employment 2.8% 2.5% 1.6% 1.0% 0.9% 2.4% 3.1% 1.0% 0.5% -0.9% Figure 4: Monthly Employment, Saskatchewan, Seasonally Adjusted thousands J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND

4 Page 4 November 2017 Youth employment is usually the first to suffer in a weak labour market and 2017 was no exception. The number of those 15 to 24 years of age with a job declined sharply in 2017 in spite of the fact that the population in this age group is increasing. The employment rate among youth was 57.4% in 2017 compared with 62.2% in 2012 and 65.8% in One benefit of a weak labour market is the fact that young people tend to stay in school if they cannot find work. Among those 15 to 24, 56% were going to school in 2017 up from 53% during the peak of the economic boom. Summer jobs were hard to find last year. Among those 15 to 24 year olds who were returning to school in the Fall, 51.2% were working over the summer compared with 54.1% in 2012 and 59.5% in The sample size of the Labour Force Survey is not large enough to measure retirement rates in Saskatchewan but we do have data for Canada as a whole in Figure 7. It shows that the average retirement age has been increasing since the turn of the century. Retirement now occurs at age 64.2 for the average private sector employee, 2½ years later than the 61.5 average among those in the private sector (broadly defined to include crown corporations, health, and education as well as government proper). The self-employed typically retire much later with the average age at 68.0 years in 2017 compared 66.1 years in Family Status Figure 8 shows how employment has changed according to the individual s family situation. In 2017, employment declined among the large number of those in families where both spouses are working and increased in singleearner families. The most likely explanation for this change is that one spouse in the dual-earner family lost their job in 2017, converting the couple into a singleearner family. Employment also declined among lone parents and among unattached individuals typically young people living alone. Employment increased significantly among households with young children at home. It declined among families where the youngest child is older (18 to 24 years) and among those with no children at home (typically emptynesters and young married couples). Aboriginal Identity The Labour Force Survey covers only the population living off Reserve so the labour market statistics about the Figure 5: Employment Increase, 2016 to 2017, by Province (showing 2017 employment in thousands) B.C. (2,467) PEI (74) Que (4,223) Ont (7,128) Man (644) Alta (2,287) NS (449) NB (353) Sask (568) Nfld (224) Canada (18,416) Sex Age Group Men (306) Women (261) 15 to 24 (77) 25 to 34 (133) 35 to 44 (120) 45 to 54 (110) 55 to 64 (96) 65 plus (31) -3.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 3.7% 3.1% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Figure 6: Employment Increase, 2016 to 2017, by Age and Sex, Saskatchewan (showing 2017 employment in thousands) -3.7% -3.4% -0.6% -0.8% 0.4% 1.9% 3.3% 4.9% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Figure 7: Average Age at Retirement, Canada private sector self-employed public sector

5 Page 5 November 2017 Figure 8: Employment Increase, 2016 to 2017, by Family Type, Saskatchewan (showing 2017 employment in thousands) Husband-wife, dual earners (328) -0.1% Family Type Husband-wife, one earner (77) Lone parents (33) Unattached individuals (95) -2.4% -1.1% 4.2% All others (35) -2.8% Age of Youngest Child at Home Under 6 (90) 6 to 17 (99) 18 to 24 (29) None under 25 (350) -5.9% -2.1% 2.6% 6.8% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% First Nations population miss about one half of those in the labour market age group. Among Aboriginal people living off Reserve, employment increased dramatically in 2017, growing by 2.0% compared with a decline among the non-aboriginal population. Figure 9 shows that the increase was limited to the First Nations population; employment declined among the Métis. The Aboriginal population is increasing so there is still a significant Aboriginal/non-Aboriginal gap in employment rates. Among those 15 to 64 years of age the employment rate in 2017 was: 48% for the First Nations population compared with; 67% for the Métis population; and 77% for the non-aboriginal population. Figure 9: Employment Increase, 2016 to 2017, by Aboriginal Identity, Saskatchewan (showing 2017 employment in thousands) Figure 10: Employment Among Immigrants and Non-Permanent Residents, Saskatchewan 100 First Nations (18) 8.5% thousands non-permanent residents Métis (29) -1.0% Aboriginal total (47) 2.0% established immigrants Non-Aboriginal (521) -0.4% recent immigrants -4% 0% 4% 8% 12%

6 Page 6 November 2017 Immigration Status The Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program has encouraged new immigration to the province to help meet labour market needs. Figure 10 shows the steady increase in employment among immigrants from 2010 to From 2016 to 2017, the increase was among established immigrants, namely those who have been in Canada for more than five years. Employment among recent immigrants (in Canada for less than five years) declined. Employment among non-permanent residents also declined as the demand for temporary foreign workers slowed. This high growth rate among immigrants is from a very small base. Even after the steady growth, employment among the foreign-born Saskatchewan residents accounts for only 15% of total employment in the province. This is the lowest proportion except for the Atlantic provinces. Educational Attainment Saskatchewan is in the unenviable position of having one of the lowest levels of formal education in its labour force. The situation improved somewhat in 2017; the number of employed persons with a post-secondary education was unchanged whereas the number with less than Grade 12 declined. In particular, there was a 1.6% increase in the number with a university degree and a 1.1% decline among the more numerous ones with a certificate or diploma (see Figure 11). Notwithstanding the increase, post-secondary graduates represent only 58.1% of the employed in Saskatchewan, the second lowest proportion in Canada (see Figure 12). We do just as poorly among those with at least grade 12 (89.5% which is the lowest among the ten) and the proportion who are university graduates (23.9% which is the 3 rd lowest). Type of Job and Hours of Work Statistics Canada defines part-time workers as those who usually work fewer than thirty hours per week at their main job. There was a decline in 2017 among both parttime and full-time workers. Figure 13 shows that, within the part-time category, there was a marked increase among involuntary part-time workers, namely those who were working part-time but would prefer full-time work. Involuntary part-time workers now represent 24% of parttime workers compared with 20% in After falling slightly in 2016, the incidence of multiplejob-holding increased by 2.1% in There were 43,400 persons with two or more jobs simultaneously last year compared with 42,500 in Saskatchewan remains the province with the highest proportion of multiple-job Figure 11: Employment Increase, 2016 to 2017, by Completed Education, Saskatchewan (showing 2017 employment in thousands) Less than Grade 12 (60) Grade 12 (178) Post-secondary certificate or diploma (194) University degree (135) Canada Que Nfld Ont NS PEI Alta B.C. NB Sask Man -7.7% -1.1% 1.6% 2.3% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% Figure 12: Post-Secondary Graduates as Percentage of the Employed, % 57.5% 61.3% 64.0% 63.4% 63.1% 65.9% 66.5% 66.5% 66.3% 70.5% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% Figure 13: Employment Increase, 2016 to 2017, by Hours of Work, Saskatchewan (showing 2017 employment in thousands) Voluntary part-time (78) Involuntary part-time (24) Part-time total (102) Full-time (466) -4.1% -0.3% -0.1% 14.1% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

7 Page 7 November 2017 holders among the employed (7.6% compared with the national average of 5.6%). The employment decline in 2017 was effectively among the self-employed; the number of paid workers increased by 0.4%. The 2.5% decline in the number of selfemployed persons arises from a 12.1% drop in agriculture offset by a 2.0% increase in non-agricultural industries such as construction, retail trade, and professional services. Within the category of paid workers, the number of nonpermanent paid jobs (term, temporary/contract, or casual positions) increased by 0.6% whereas the number of permanent ones increased by 0.3% (see Figure 14). Industry Group The weak performance last year was because employment increases in smaller groups was not enough to offset the substantial declines in two of the three largest industry groups health care (-2.9%) and construction (-1.2%). Employment in the public sector, broadly defined to include the crown corporations, health and education services, as well as government proper, was effectively unchanged in The 139,100 people working in the public sector accounted for 24.5% of employment in the province in In other words, the 2017 employment decline was effectively limited to the 428,500 persons working in the Paid workers Figure 14: Employment Increase, 2016 to 2017, by Job Type, Saskatchewan (showing 2017 employment in thousands) Paid permanent (404) Paid non-permanent (62) Total paid workers (465) Self-employed (102) private sector. -2.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% -4% -2% 0% 2% There were strong performances in several industry groups in 2017 (see Figure 15). Manufacturing was the fastest growing in percentage terms. This group includes manufacturers of durable goods (e.g. farm machinery manufacturers) where employment grew by 12.2% and non-durable goods (e.g. refineries) where employment grew by 3.9%. The professional, scientific, and technical services Figure 15: Employment Increase, 2016 to 2017, by Industry and Sector, Saskatchewan (showing 2017 employment in thousands) Sector Agriculture (37) -10.2% Forestry, mining, oil and gas (24) Accommodation and food services (36) Finance, insurance, real estate, rental (27) -5.2% -4.5% -4.2% Health care and social assistance (76) -2.9% Personal and household services (25) Utilities (7) Construction (51) -1.6% -1.4% -1.2% Educational services (41) 0.0% Information, culture, recreation (21) Public administration (30) Transportation and warehousing (29) Wholesale trade (24) 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.5% Retail trade (68) 4.8% Business and building support services (14) Professional, scientific, technical services (30) 6.9% 7.5% Manufacturing (28) 8.9% Public sector (139) Private sector (428) 0.0% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

8 Page 8 November 2017 group includes accountants, lawyers, IT professionals, and management consultants. It was the second fastest growing group with a 7.5% increase in Within that group, legal and advertising services were the main reason for the increase. The third fastest growing industry group is the management and building support group. This includes waste disposal, security services, and business cleaning services. Employment increased by 6.9% last year. Two of the three largest declines were in goods-producing industry groups. Employment in agriculture fell by 10.2%, marking the third year in a row for employment declines in agriculture. Employment in the resource sector fell by 5.2% with a 7.0% decline in the oil patch and a 1.6% decline in mining. Employment in accommodation and food services fell by 4.5% after three years of increases. All of the decline was because of a 9.8% decline in restaurants and bars. Employment in hotels and motels increased. Union Membership Union membership is less common in the private sector so the increase in union membership shown in Figure 16 occurred in spite of the shift from the private sector to the public sector in Excluding the self-employed, employment among union members increased by 1.4% whereas employment among those who were not union members fell by 0.1%. Region Figure 16: Employment Increase, 2016 to 2017, by Union Membership, Saskatchewan (showing 2017 employment in thousands) Union member (153) Not a union member (312) Self-employed (102) -2.5% -0.1% The Labour Force Survey has a large enough sample to enable employment estimates for the seven sub-provincial areas shown in the map in Figure 17. Declining employment was evident in three of the seven regions. The largest declines were in the south 4.5% in the Southeast and 4.0% in the Southwest. The East Central region, the 1.4% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% Figure 17: Employment Increase, 2016 to 2017, by Region, Saskatchewan (showing 2017 employment in thousands) Southeast (42) Southwest (51) -4.5% -4.0% Lloydminster North Battleford North Prince Albert Melfort North (97) -2.0% Humboldt West Central (27) Saskatoon CMA (170) 0.4% 1.1% West Central Kindersley Saskatoon CMA East Central Yorkton Melville Regina CMA (141) 1.1% Swift Current Regina CMA East Central (39) 4.3% Southw est Weyburn Southeast Estevan -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%

9 Page 9 November 2017 smallest of the seven regions had the largest percentage increase but this was the equivalent of 1,500 jobs. The labour market is continuing its relentless trend of more employment among residents of the two large cities. Employment in the Regina and Saskatoon metropolitan areas increased by 1.1% compared with a decline of 1.7% elsewhere in the province. Wage Rates The weak labour market showed in wage rates. In 2017, the average hourly wage rate was $ This is effectively the same as the $26.81 reported in With inflation expecting to end the year at 1.7%, the real wage rate will decline by an average of 1.6% in The 0.1% increase in wage rates last year was the worst performance among the provinces. Notwithstanding the slow growth, Figure 19 shows that average wage rates in Saskatchewan remain the second highest among the provinces after Alberta. Summary and Outlook The key labour market trends in 2017 are as follows. Employment declined by 0.2% in This was the second decline in a row. Employment increased in most other provinces with an increase of 1.0% in Alberta and 1.7% in Manitoba. Both the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate were effectively unchanged as the number of people exiting the labour market increased. Employment increased among women and declined among men. Employment increased more quickly than average among older workers. It fell the most quickly among those 15 to 24 years of age. The proportion of workers with a post-secondary education continued to increase but is still the second lowest among the provinces. Much of the employment decline was among one of the spouses in a two-earner family. Aboriginal employment (off Reserve) increased substantially with a particularly large increase among those with a First Nations identity. Employment fell among recent immigrants (those who have been in Canada less than five years) but grew among those who have been here longer. Part-time employment among those who would rather have full-time employment increased sharply; fulltime employment dropped and voluntary part-time employment declined. Self-employment fell; paid employment increased. Employment was unchanged in the public sector; it dropped in the private sector. $28 $26 $24 $22 $20 $18 $16 $14 $12 Alta Sask Ont B.C. Que Nfld Man NS NB PEI Canada Figure 18: Average Hourly Wage Rate, in Constant $2017, Saskatchewan hourly rate annual increase (right scale) Figure 19: Interprovincial Comparison of Wage Rates, 2017 $22.39 $21.76 $23.35 $24.16 $24.94 $24.91 $26.83 $26.43 $25.71 $26.16 The fastest growing industry group was manufacturing. Employment fell the most in agriculture. Employment declined in three of the seven regions within the province. The largest increase was in the East Central region. Wage rates were effectively unchanged in 2017 but remain the second highest among the provinces. Last year we forecast employment growth to be 0.5%, which turned out to be too optimistic. For 2018, an employment recovery seems to be under way so we are expecting an increase, albeit it a weak one. With no unexpected developments in the USA, we forecast employment to grow by 0.5% to 1.0% in Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% $30.01 $17 $19 $21 $23 $25 $27 $29 $31

10 Page 10 November 2017 HIGHLIGHTS OF CURRENT SASKATCHEWAN STATISTICS Manufacturing shipments The value of manufactured goods increased by 16.5% in November to bring the year-to-date increase to 13.6%. The increase is wide-spread with the production of durable goods (e.g. farm machinery) up 14.9% in the first eleven months of the year compared with 10.5% for the production of non-durable goods (e.g. refined petroleum products). Employment in the manufacturing sector is up 9% for the year. Sales are on track to reach a record $16 billion for the year. $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $ billions Value of Manufactured Goods est Employment insurance recipients Wholesale Trade Farm Input Prices International Trade Resource Prices Urban Housing starts Building Permits Cross Border Traffic The number of persons collecting regular employment insurance benefits was 14,980 in November which is 7.5% lower than a year ago. The number of EI recipients has declined on a year-over-year basis in each of the last three months. This has probably more to do with an expiration of benefits rather than finding work. Gross sales for Saskatchewan wholesalers were up 27% in October 2017 compared with October 2016 to bring the year-to-date increase to 9%. The increase was broadly based with double-digit increases in all six sub-categories including machinery and equipment (23%) and agricultural supplies (36%). In the third quarter of 2017, inflation in the cost of farm inputs was 2.1%. The increase was 2.0% for fertilizer and other crop production costs and 3.5% for livestock production. The increase for fuel and other machinery and equipment costs was 2.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the value of international merchandise exports fell by 6.7% in November. Imports on the other hand increased by 54.6% so net trade fell to $1.4 billion the lowest level since Crude oil ended 2017 an average of $US50.88/barrel up 17.9% from Natural gas prices look to be headed to a 10% increase for the year. Uranium prices, on the other hand, ended the year down 18.2% to US$31.89/lb and potash prices will drop by nearly 15%. Preliminary housing starts in urban areas increased by 7% to end the year at 4,155 starts. The Alberta and Manitoba housing markets showed even stronger growth with increases of 22% and 49% respectively. The value of residential and non-residential permits issued in November, a normally slow month, was $71.9 million a 94% increase from November This brings the year-to-date increase to 2.9% with a 29.4% increase in the commercial/industrial category, a 40% decline in the government/institutional category, and a 10% increase in the residential category. Construction employment is down 1.1% for the year. Black Friday did not seem to have the attraction for shoppers this year. Same day auto trips across the border were down 4.1% in November 2017 compared with November Arrivals by out-of-country visitors were down 0.5% and will end the year down 4% from 2016 and the fifth consecutive annual decline. Airport Traffic The number of takeoffs and landings at the Regina and Saskatoon airport increased by 27% and 44% respectively in October. This is quite a turnaround from the declines earlier in the year. Weather December was warm and dry compared with the norm. Precipitation was 70% lower in the South and about 20% lower in the North. In spite of the cold snap near Christmas, average temperatures were 1 o C to 2.5 o C higher than normal.

11 Page 11 November 2017 Annual/monthly totals or averages Percentage changes: from from 2017 Employment and the Labour Force Nov Dec year to Average Average Average Dec date Labour force Employed % -0.1% status (15 and Unemployed % -1.1% -0.9% older) in Not in the labour force % 3.1% 3.4% thousands Total % 0.8% 0.9% Participation rate (%) 69.7% 70.1% 69.8% 68.1% 0.6%pp -1.0%pp -1.1%pp Employment rate (%) 67.0% 66.6% 65.4% 63.9% 0.2%pp -0.9%pp -1.0%pp Unemployment rate (%) 3.8% 5.0% 6.3% 6.2% 0.5%pp 0.0%pp 0.0%pp Average hourly wage rate for paid workers $25.32 $25.95 $26.82 $ % 0.1% 0.1% Unadjusted (actual) total % -0.1% Seasonally adjusted total % 0.1% -0.1% Employment Men % -1.2% -0.6% (000) Women % 1.2% 0.4% 15 to 24 years of age % -5.8% -3.7% 25 to 39 years of age % 2.7% 0.4% 40 to 54 years of age % -3.4% -1.1% 55 and older % 3.4% 2.6% Full time % -0.7% -0.1% Part time % 2.6% -0.4% Multiple job holders % -4.8% 2.1% Agriculture % -10.2% -10.1% Forestry, mining, oil/gas, utilities % -1.6% -4.1% Employment Construction % -1.6% -1.1% by industry Manufacturing % 2.2% 8.9% group Transportation, warehousing % 2.1% 2.3% (000) Wholesale and retail trade % -1.3% 4.3% Finance, insurance, real estate % 0.4% -4.2% Professional, technical services % -10.1% 7.3% Management and support services % 8.7% 7.3% Health and social services % 1.7% -2.9% Education services % 2.6% 0.2% Accommodation and food services % 1.7% -4.4% Information, culture, recreation % 3.0% 1.2% Personal and household services % 4.7% -1.5% Public administration % 6.9% 1.0% Employment Paid, private sector % -1.8% 0.5% by category Paid, public sector % 3.5% 0.0% (000) Self employed and unpaid family % 0.2% -2.5% Aboriginal (15 to 64 years) off Reserve % -4.3% 2.7% Non-Aboriginal (15 to 64 years) % -0.5% -0.9% Employment Born in Canada (15 years and older) % -1.9% -0.5% (3 month Immigrated in the last 5 years (15+) % -15.4% -5.7% moving Immigrated 5+ years ago (15+) % 15.8% 6.9% average in Regina CMA % 1.3% 0.9% thousands) Saskatoon CMA % 0.0% 1.1% Southeast (except Regina) % -2.4% -5.3% Swift Current/Moose Jaw region % -5.5% -3.4% West central (except Saskatoon) % -1.1% 0.7% East central (incl. Yorkton) % -4.2% 5.4% P.A./Northern Saskatchewan % 0.4% -2.5% from from 2017 Paid Workers and Weekly Earnings Sept Oct year to Average Average Average Oct date Number of Salaried % 0.8% 0.0% paid workers Hourly rated and part time % -0.9% -1.1% (000) Other (including commission) % -5.3% 0.0% Avg earnings/wk (incl overtime) Total % -0.7% -0.6% All paid employees $ $ $ $1, % 2.1% 2.1% Adjusted for inflation (constant $2002) $ $ $ $ % 0.0% 0.8% Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey and Survey of Employment Payroll and Hours pp = change in percentage points

12 Page 12 November 2017 Annual/monthly Totals or Averages Percentage changes: from from 2017 Wholesale Trade ($ millions) Sept Oct year to Total Total Total Oct date Food, beverage, tobacco products $1,852 $1,603 $1,615 $ % 27.9% 1.8% Farm products $1,738 $2,021 $1,634 $ % 50.1% 17.8% Agricultural supplies $8,269 $10,596 $9,023 $ % 36.0% 4.7% Machinery and equipment $8,224 $7,819 $8,306 $ % 22.9% 15.8% Building materials $2,169 $1,956 $2,281 $ % 18.7% 9.4% All other wholesale sales $4,452 $4,144 $4,017 $ % 14.4% 2.2% Wholesale sales total $24,851 $26,535 $25,261 $2, % 27.4% 9.1% Wholesale sales (seasonally adjusted) $24,851 $26,535 $25,261 $2, % 21.4% 8.8% from from Sept Oct year to Total Total Total Oct date New motor vehicle dealers $4,005 $3,856 $3,828 $ % 32.3% 12.5% Used vehicles, recreational vehicles, and auto parts $1,106 $1,083 $1,110 $88 8.3% -3.4% -1.1% Service stations $3,054 $2,496 $2,441 $ % 6.3% 6.9% Furniture and home furnishings stores $492 $496 $528 $42 0.9% -17.7% -6.2% Electronics and appliance stores $493 $492 $493 $ % -10.1% -5.2% Building materials, home centres, garden supplies $1,187 $1,232 $1,253 $ % 10.8% 0.6% Health and personal care stores $982 $988 $1,220 $ % 6.4% 5.3% Clothing, footwear, accessories $656 $668 $699 $57-3.1% -3.8% -1.1% Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores $403 $415 $466 $34-3.4% -10.0% -10.4% Grocery stores $2,761 $2,696 $2,752 $ % -7.2% -1.0% Beer, wine and liquor stores $680 $737 $767 $63 6.3% 3.0% 0.3% General merchandise (incl dept stores) $3,106 $3,219 $3,225 $ % 7.3% 7.3% $348 $341 $352 $31-1.1% 2.9% 5.3% Retail Trade ($ millions) Vehicle related Household related Personal Other Other and Miscellaneous Retailers Retail sales total $19,274 $18,719 $19,135 $1, % 7.0% 4.4% Retail sales (seasonally adjusted) $19,274 $18,719 $19,135 $1, % 6.1% 4.4% Motor Vehicle Unit Sales (number of units sold) from from Oct Nov year to Total Total Total Nov date Passenger cars 12,293 10,631 9, % -5.4% -4.8% Trucks/SUVs/vans/commercial vehicles 46,141 44,642 42,833 3, % -9.6% 11.1% All vehicles 58,434 55,273 52,099 4, % -9.1% 8.3% International Merchandise Trade (millions of Canadian $) from from Oct Nov year to Total Total Total Nov date Merchandise Imports $12,135 $10,389 $8,990 $ % 54.6% 26.5% Merchandise Exports $35,277 $32,532 $26,693 $2, % -6.7% 8.7% Net International Merchandise Trade $23,142 $22,143 $17,702 $1, % -27.4% -0.5% from from 2017 Consumer Price Indices (2002=100) Oct Nov year to Average Average Average Nov date Purchased from stores % 2.6% -1.1% Food Purchased from restaurants % 8.5% 6.5% Food total % 4.2% 1.0% Clothing and footwear % 3.1% 1.0% Transportation % 8.0% 3.2% Shelter, owned or rented % 2.5% 1.8% Household operations and furnishings % 0.6% -1.7% Health and personal care % 1.7% 1.4% Recreation, education, and reading % 2.3% 1.9% Alcohol and tobacco % 5.2% 4.4% Saskatchewan all items % 3.7% 1.5% Regina all items % 3.9% 1.6% Saskatoon all items % 3.9% 1.6% Sources: Statistics Canada (retail/wholesale trade, consumer price index, motor vehicle sales), Strategis International Trade Database (international trade

13 Page 13 November 2017 Annual/monthly Totals or Averages Percentage changes: date of most from from same most recent previous period year to recent Agriculture period period last year date period Farm cash Crops $9,834 $11,197 $11,409 $2, % 2.6% 1.5% receipts Livestock $2,711 $2,644 $1,993 $ % 15.7% -1.2% ($ millions) Program payments $612 $585 $667 $ % 93.2% 124.4% Q3 Total cash receipts $13,156 $14,426 $14,069 $3, % 6.7% 4.0% Farm product Crops % 2.7% -5.8% price index Livestock and products % 5.5% -3.7% Sept (2007=100) All products % 3.7% -5.7% Canola ($/tonne) $408 $444 $454 $ % -0.5% 6.1% Market Field peas ($/tonne) $10.10 $8.33 $8.84 $ % -15.0% -6.8% Prices lb. feeder steers $/lb % 18.4% 3.9% Dec Index 100 hog prices, $/100 kg $207 $158 $149 $ % 4.7% 7.8% Resource Production, Consumption, Price Crude oil production (000 m³) 29,891 28,224 26,732 2, % 8.0% 6.0% Oct Natural gas production (mm³) 5,825 5,794 5, % 3.7% -1.4% Oct Production & Potash (000 tonnes): Canada 10,955 11,420 10, % -16.9% 15.4% Nov volumes Uranium (000 kg): Canada 9,780 13,279 14,133 1, % -25.3% -21.0% Nov Motor gasoline sales (000 m³) 2,844 2,780 2, % -8.6% -4.2% Oct West Texas interm. crude oil US$/bbl $93.26 $48.69 $50.88 $ % 11.4% 17.9% Dec Edmonton par crude oil C$/m3 $591 $359 $392 $ % 4.2% 19.2% Dec Regular gas ( /litre) Regina retail % 24.2% 7.1% Nov Prices Regular gas ( /litre) Saskatoon retail % 25.4% 7.4% Nov Uranium long-term price US$/lb. $46.46 $46.29 $39.00 $ % 2.2% -18.2% Dec Potash (2002=100) % -5.0% -14.7% Nov Natural gas, Alberta spot market price (dollars per gigajoule) $4.00 $2.42 $1.83 $ % -22.6% 16.6% Nov Manufacturing Sales ($ millions) Non-durable Food products $3,210 $4,079 $ % 4.8% 9.3% Goods Chemical products $2,253 $2,240 $1,886 $94-9.7% 33.1% Other non-durable goods $3,968 $ % Total non-durable goods manufacturing $10,386 $9,419 $9,829 $ % 13.3% 14.9% Durable Machinery manufacturing $1,441 $1,135 $1,135 $ % 63.9% 20.0% Goods Fabricated metal products $834 $685 $662 $53-7.2% -1.9% 0.3% Other durable goods $3,095 $2,788 $2,516 $ % 13.0% 9.0% Total durable goods manufacturing $5,371 $4,608 $4,313 $ % 23.4% 10.5% All manufacturing groups $15,757 $14,027 $14,141 $1, % 16.5% 13.6% Capital Construction Price Index Structural products % 6.8% 5.4% Sask Trends Architectural products % 4.5% 4.1% Monitor Mechanical products % 1.9% 1.8% Capital Electrical products % 1.3% 1.1% Construction Equipment and operating % 9.9% 6.3% Price Index Total material costs % 4.8% 3.7% (2010=100) Labour costs % -0.3% -2.6% Total material and labour % 2.1% 0.3% Construction Residential Urban (population > 10,000) 7,152 4,334 3, % -4% 7% Dec housing starts Rural 1, % -17% -10% Q3 (# of units) Provincial total 8,257 5,149 4,775 1,553 15% -4% 3% Q3 Residential $1,574 $1,174 $1,025 $ % -5% 10% Value of Industrial & commercial $877 $1,033 $593 $ % 1% 29% building Institutional & government $218 $676 $353 $ % 719% -40% permits Provincial total $2,669 $2,883 $1,971 $ % 26% 7% Nov ($ millions) Regina $706 $795 $681 $ % 46% 4% Saskatoon $1,100 $1,246 $867 $ % 5% 2% Other provincial $862 $842 $422 $ % 41% 20% Sources: Statistics Canada, Saskatchewan Agriculture, CMHC, Sask Economy Nov Nov

14 Page 14 November 2017 Population and Migration Interprovincial migration International migration Natural growth Annual/monthly Totals or Averages Percentage changes: date of most from from same most recent previous period year to recent data period last year date data Into Saskatchewan 18,155 18,422 16,960 3,544-40% -22% -3% Out of Saskatchewan 20,707 23,172 22,411 6,237-19% 0% 4% Net flow -2,552-4,750-5,451-2,693 Immigrants 11,826 12,522 14,859 3,970-7% 14% -0% Emigrants ` % 0% 0% Net flow 10,945 11,618 13,954 3,695-8% 16% -0% Q3 Births 15,132 15,355 15,632 4, % 1.2% 1.4% Deaths 9,453 9,572 9,697 2, % 1.0% 1.2% Net natural growth 5,679 5,783 5,935 1, % 1.5% 1.7% Population at end of period (000) 1, , , , % 1.25% 1.34% Canadian Commodity Price Indices (2010=100) Raw materials price index % 14.4% 11.6% Industrial products price index % 2.6% 3.2% Nov Other Selected Time Series Cross border traffic (000 of person-trips) Airport takeoffs and landings Sask residents, same day auto % -4.1% -4.5% Sask residents, 2+ days, auto % -3.9% 3.9% Sask residents returning, all modes of travel, all countries % 0.8% -4.1% Arrivals by out-of-country visitors % -0.5% -3.8% Saskatoon 91,160 94,990 92,528 8, % 44.1% 5.9% Regina 58,168 57,382 52,202 4, % 27.4% 1.3% Restaurant and tavern receipts ($M) $1,765 $1,818 $1,878 $ % 0.5% -0.4% Oct Regular employment insurance beneficiaries 10,027 12,700 18,660 14, % -7.5% 2.9% Nov Job vacancies (excl government), 3 month moving average 9,000 6,425 6,025 6, % 4.7% 9.4% Sept Consumer bankruptcies 1,105 1,155 1, % 15.2% -2.5% Business and farm bankruptcies % 100.0% 7.9% Oct Prime rate 3.00% 2.78% 2.70% 3.20% 0.00%pp 0.50%pp 0.21%pp Dec Financial TSE composite index 14,712 14,270 14,194 16, % 6.5% 9.5% Nov statistics Exchange rate (US ) % 4.4% 2.1% Dec Weather (data based on the twelve months from September to August) Precipitation in mm Mean daily temperature Annual/monthly Totals or Averages Changes date of Sep-2014 Sep-2015 Sep-2016 from from YTD most to Aug- to Aug- to Aug- Dec Dec Dec from recent Normals data Estevan/Regina/Swift Current % -63% -57% Yorkton/Saskatoon/Lloydminster % -29% -34% Prince Albert/La Ronge % -22% -19% Estevan/Regina/Swift Current ºC +2.4ºC -5.4ºC Dec Yorkton/Saskatoon/Lloydminster ºC +2.9ºC -5.5ºC Prince Albert/La Ronge ºC +1.2ºC -5.5ºC pp = change in percentage points Sources: Statistics Canada, Industry Canada, Transport Canada, Environment Canada Nov Oct Sask Trends Monitor is published monthly by QED Information Systems Inc. Reproduction of the newsletter in whole or part is prohibited unless credit is given to Sask Trends Monitor. Data are obtained from what are considered reliable sources but are subject to periodic, retroactive, revisions. Additional detail about the sources and methodology is available on request. Comments on and suggestions for the material or the articles are always welcome. Subscription information is available from: Subscription Prices: ATTN: Douglas H. Elliott Annual electronic subscription: $210/year + GST Sask Trends Monitor Annual paper subscription: $275/year + GST th Avenue Regina, Saskatchewan Phone: (306) S4N 1H1 Facsimile: (306) Website: sasktrends@sasktel.net