PROGRESS OF MACROECONOMICS ASSUMPTIONS AND BUDGET REALIZATION. UP TO AUGUST 31 st, 2009

Transcription

1 PROGRESS OF MACROECONOMICS ASSUMPTIONS AND BUDGET REALIZATION UP TO AUGUST 31 st, 2009 I. Macroeconomics Assumptions 1 Economic Growth In the Law on 2009 Budget, economic growth is target at 6.0%. In the 2009 Fiscal Stimulus Document, the target of economic growth is revised down to 4.5%, and in the 2009 Proposed Revised Budget the economic growth target is revised down again to 4.3%. In the Q-I of 2009, economic growth has reached 4.4%, while in the Q-II economic growth is projected to be around 4.0%. Thus, in the 2009 first semester economic growth is estimated at 4.2%; lower than the rate of economic growth in first semester of 2008 that reached 6.34%. The sources of economic growth in the 2009 first semester come from the government consumption, the public consumption, and investment, which are estimated to grow at 18.0%, 5.4% and 3.0%. Meanwhile, export and import are projected to have negative growth of minus 17.2% and minus 24.9% Graph 1 Economic Growth (y-0-y), 1 st Semester of % QI QII Sem I 2 Inflation In the Law on 2009 Budget, the inflation rate is estimate at 6.2%, and adjusted to be 6.0% in 2009 Fiscal Stimulus Document, and become 4.5% in the 2009 Revised Budget. Up to August 31 st, 2009, the cumulative inflation rate has reached 1.22% (y-t-d), annual inflation rate (y-o-y) has reached 2.75%, and inflation in August 2009 has reached 0.56% (m-t-m). 1

2 Annually, in August 2009 the inflation rate lower than the same period the previous year which reached 11.85%. This is caused by world oil prices high in August 2008, so goods and services price increases. While on a monthly, inflation in August 2009 increases compared with the same period in 2008 which reached 0.51%, resulting in calendar year inflation increased to reach 1.22%. The increase is due to the increasing demand for food, especially that of the increase in prices in the sector. This is because in the last two weeks in August 2009 have entered the Ramadan. y-o-y Graph 2 CPI Inflation Rate, % m-t-m 2.5% 12.0% 2.0% 1% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0,51% 11.85% 0.56% 2.75% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% % % -0.5% Inflation (y-o-y) Inflation (m-t-m) 3 Exchange Rate In the Law on 2009 Budget, rupiah exchange rate is estimate at Rp9,400/US$, then adjusted in the 2009 Fiscal Stimulus Document to be Rp11,000/US$, and revised to Rp10,500/US$ in the 2009 Revised Budget. Up to August 31 st, 2009, rupiah reached an average of Rp10,822.9/US$, or run down to its position at the same period in 2008 that reached Rp9,233.5/US$. This occurrence is influenced by some external factors, such as increased losses of financial institutions/corporations and stimulus polemics in the United States and also by internal factors such as the concerned in adequacy of foreign exchange reserves and foreign debt payment obligation, which lead to rupiah depreciation. 2

3 Graph 3 Exchange Rate Rupiah to US Dollar, ,000 Exchange Rate (Rp/US$) 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 Jan - August 2008: Rp9,233.5 Jan - August 2009: Rp10, ,000 Jan 08 July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 09 July Aug 4 3-Month Bank of Indonesia Certificate (SBI) Interest Rate In the Law on 2009 Budget and also in the 2009 Fiscal Stimulus Document as well as in the 2009 Proposed Revised Budget, 3-month SBI interest rate is estimate at 7.5%. Up to August 31 st, 2009 average realization 3-months SBI reached 8.1%, which means decrease from its realization at the same period in 2008 that reached an average of 8.6%. 12 Graph 4 3-Month Bank of Indonesian Certificate (SBI), SBI (%) Jan -Aug 2008: 8.6% Jan - Aug 2009: 8.1% Jan 08 July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 09 5 Indonesian Crude Oil Price (ICP) In the Law on 2009 Budget, Indonesian crude oil price (ICP) is estimate at US$8 per barrel. In the 2009 Fiscal Stimulus Document, the assumption is adjusted to US$45.0 per barrel, but then readjusted to US$61.0 per barrel in the 2009 Revised Budget. 3

4 The realization of ICP up to August 31 st, 2009 reached US$55.83 per barrel, or decrease from its realization at the same period in 2008 that reached at US$ per barrel Graph5 Indonesian Crude Oil Price (ICP), (us$/barel) Jan - Aug 2008: Jan - Aug 2009: Jan July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan July Aug Oil Lifting In the Law on 2009 Budget and 2009 Revised Budget, oil lifting is estimate at billion per barrel. The average realization of oil lifting in January July 2009 reached million barrels per day, which means lower than the realization at the same period in 2008 that reached million barrels per day. Thousand barel/day 1,100 1,050 Jan - July 2008 : thousand barel/day Graph6 Lifting, , ,018.7 Jan - July 2009 : thousandbarels/day 1, Jan July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan July

5 II. BUDGET REALIZATION 1. Revenues and Grants In the Law on 2009 Budget, revenues and grants are estimate at Rp985.7 trillion. The target is revised to Rp848.6 trillion in the 2009 Fiscal Stimulus Document, and become Rp871.0 trillion in the 2009 Revised Budget. Up to August 31 st, 2009, the realization of revenues and grants reached Rp498.5 trillion (57.2% of the target in the 2009 Revised Budget). The number is decreased by 10.7% in comparison with realization in August 31 st, 2008 that reached 67.9% from its Revised Budget. The realization of revenues and grants consist of the realization of domestic revenues Rp498.1 trillion (57.3% from the target in the 2009 Revised Budget), and the realization of grant Rp0.3 trillion (34.4% from the target in 2009 Revised Budget). The realization of domestic revenues consist of the realization of tax revenues Rp387.5 trillion (59.4% from the target in 2009 Revised Budget) and realization of nontax revenues Rp110.6 trillion (50.7% from the target in 2009 Revised Budget). The realization of tax revenues up to August 31 st, 2009 consist of income taxes Rp207.9 trillion (53.7%), VAT Rp112.9 trillion (29.1%), excise Rp36.6 trillion (9.4%), the land and building taxes and dutiable on land and building transfers Rp15.9 trillion (4.1%), international trade taxes Rp12.2 trillion (3.1%), and other taxes Rp2.0 trillion (0.5%). Meanwhile, the realization of nontax revenues up to August 31 st, 2009 come from the natural resources revenue Rp62.4 trillion (56.4%), other nontax revenues Rp34.6 trillion (31.3%), government share from SOE s profit Rp11.3 trillion (10.2%), and public service agency revenue (BLU revenue) Rp2.4 trillion (2.1%). Graph7 Revenue and Grant, January August Grant Nontax Tax Total

6 Graph 8 Tax Revenue, January- August (1) Export duties 0.4 () 0.2 (0.1) Import duties Excise Other tax Duties on building tranf Land & Building tax VAT Oil & gas inc. tax Non oil & gas inc. tax Total Graph 9 Nontax Revenue, January - August BLU Other nontax Profit from SOE's Nonoil & gas nat. resorc Oil & gas nat. resorc Series6 Total Government Expenditures In the Law on 2009 Budget, government expenditures is estimate at Rp1,037.1 trillion, then is adjusted to Rp988.1 trillion in the 2009 Fiscal Stimulus Document, and become Rp1,000.8 trillion in the 2009 Revised Budget. Up to August 31 st, 2009, the realization of the government expenditures reached Rp519.8 trillion (51.9% of its 2009 Revised Budget). This means 1.3% lower in comparison with realization up to August 31 st, 2008 that reached 53.2% of its Revised Budget. 6

7 The realization of government expenditures consist of the realization of the central government expenditures Rp332.7 trillion (48.1% of its 2009 Revised Budget) and transfer to regions Rp187.1 trillion (60.5% from the target in 2009 Revised Budget). The realization of the central government expenditures are mostly dominated by the personnel expenditures Rp89.8 trillion (27.0%), debt interest payments Rp64.2 trillion (19.3%), and subsidies Rp58.1 trillion (17.5%), and others 36.2%. Meanwhile, realization of the transfer to regions mostly come from general allocation fund (DAU) Rp139.8 trillion (74.8%) and revenue sharing (DBH) Rp30.8 trillion (16.5%). 10 Graph 10 Government Expenditures, January - August Transfer to regions Central gov. expenditures Graph 11 Central Government Expenditures, January - August Subsidies Debt payments Ministries/Agencies Total

8 Graph12 Transfer to Regions, January - August Spec. autonomy & adj. fund DAK DAU DBH Total Budget Deficit On one side the realization of revenues and grants have reached Rp498.5 trillion, whereas the realization of government expenditures have reached Rp519.8 trillion, thus, until August 31 st, 2009 budget deficit has became Rp21.4 trillion (0.4% of GDP). If it compare to at the same period in 2008, that reached a surplus of Rp81.8 trillion (1.8% of GDP), the performance of the 2009 budget up to August 31 st, 2009 is relatively better in terms of the budget management. 7 Graph 13 Budget Surplus (deficit), SMT I (1) 2008 SMT I (5.6) 2009 SMT I 4. Budget Financing In the Law on Budget 2009, budget financing is estimate at Rp51.3 trillion, then adjusted to Rp139.5 trillion in the 2009 Fiscal Stimulus Document, and becomes Rp129.8 trillion in 2009 Revised Budget. 8

9 The realization of budget financing up to August 31 st, 2009 reached Rp60.9 trillion (46.9% from its target in 2009 Revised Budget). The realization is 32.6% lower in comparison with the same period in The realization of budget financing consist of the realization of domestic financing Rp84.6 trillion (59.3% from its target in 2009 Revised Budget) and the realization of foreign financing minus Rp23.6 trillion (185.8% from its the target in 2009 Revised Budget). The realization of domestic financing mostly comes from government securities/sbn (net) of Rp83.1 trillion. Meanwhile, the realization of foreign financing mostly comes from withdrawal of foreign loans Rp22.6 trillion and principal due at minus Rp41.7 trillion. With the realization of budget financing reached Rp60.9 trillion, whereas the budget deficit only reached Rp21.4 trillion, up to August 31 st, 2009 have a budget surplus of Rp39.6 trillion. Up to August 31 st, 2008, the budget surplus reached Rp156.9 trillion (1) () Graph14 Budget Financing, January August (2.9) (1.9) (4.4) (3.8) (9.5) (2.3) (11.8) (3) Foreign Financing Domestic Financing 9

10 REALIZATION UP TO AUGUST 31 st, (trillion rupiah) Revised Budget Real. audited Realizatio n As Of August 29 % to Revised Budget Revised Budget Real As Of August 31 % to Revised Budget A. REVENUE AND GRANTS I. DOMESTIC REVENUE TAX REVENUE a. Domestic Taxes b. International Trade Tax NON-TAX REVENUE a. Natural Resources b. Govt. Share from SOE's Profit c. Other non-tax revenues d. BLU Income II.Grants B. EXPENDITURE , I. CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE Line Ministries Expend Non-Line Ministries Expend II. TRANSFER TO REGION Balanced Funds Special Autonomy & Adjustment Fund C. OVERALL BALANCE (A - B) (94.5) (4.1) 81.8 (129.8) (21.4) % deficit to GDP (2.1) (0.1) (2.4) D. FINANCING I. DOMESTIC FINANCING Domestic Bank Financing (11.7) 16.2 (3.8) Domestic Non-Bank Financing II.FOREIGN FINANCING (13.1) (18.4) (21.5) (12.7) (23.6) Gross Drawing Penerusan Pinjaman (5.2) (13.0) (4.6) Amortizations (61.3) (63.4) (34.5) 56.4 (69.0) (41.7) 60.3 SURPLUS/(DEFICIT) FINANCING