Ministry of Finance January March 2016
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1 1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov 1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov 1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov 1-Jan 1-Mar The Government of the Republic of Kosovo Macroeconomic Overview Ministry of Finance January March 216 This overview is published with the aim of keeping the public informed with regard to main economic developments in the country on a regular basis. Through such means of communication the Ministry of Finance attempts to utilize the data made available by the country's institutions to give a concise overview of the economy for the given period. This is the first edition where the findings from the new businesses registration is presented within the context of business climate perceptions. One can observe that the manufacturing sector exhibits positive signals, as the assessmenet of the current situation as well as the expectations of businesses regarding the climate are positive, an indication which seems to be accompanied by an actual increase of businesses registered in this sector. Real Sector The kosovar economy expanded by a real growth rate of 3.6%, a figure which is an estimate since the final data on this indicator are yet not available. The Kosovo Agency of Statistics (KAS) has recently published the quarterly GDP until the third quarter (Q1) of 215, presented below in Graph 1. This indicator exhibits clear seasonality, reaching peak production during july-august-september. Graph 1. GDP by expenditure approach, in constant prices (in milion euros) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q From Graph 2 it is clear that prices maintained a level similar to the previous period and continue to closely follow the level of food prices. During January March, inflation marked an average of.1%. Graph 2. Consumer price index 7% 5% 3% 1% -1% -3% CPI Base CPI (excluding food and transport) Food and beverages In order to understand more in regard to the real sector of the economy, one may look at indicators such as the number of businesses registered as well as the perception of businesses regarding the business climate. According to the Business Registration Agency in Kosovo 2299 new businesses were registered, of which over 8 in the trade sector, whereas over 3 in manufacturing. Table 1. Number of registered businesses Business Registration Sector Q1 215 Q1 216 Wholesale and retail trade Production Agriculture, forestry and fishing Construction Accommodation and food service activities Other Total It is worth mentioning that among the sectors given in the table above, compared to the same period last year the manufacturing sector saw the highest increase in new businesses registered; around 24%. 1 M a c r o e c o n o m i c O v e r v i e w J a n u a r y - M a r c h 216
2 Balance Balance Balance This increase represents a relatively small number (67 businesses), but given the low base (compared to the trade sector) is considered a positive signal. This coincides with businesses perceptions, which in this overview are analyzed through a quarterly survey regarding the business climate conducted by the Kosovar Chamber of Commerce. Figure 3 shows the position of the given sectors according to their assessments of the current situation and the change from this position compared to the previous period (in percentage points). Figure 3. The business climate in Q In the first quarter of 215 the assessment of the situation gave a general impression of a negative valuation, where all sectors were concentrated in the bottom-left quadrant. However, we see from graph 4 that in the current period businesses have assessed the business climate much more positively, particularly striking in the manufacturing sector. We see that there is significant improvement in the position of each sector. Graph 4. The business climate in Q Change in percentage points but deteriarating climate but Change in percentage points Graph 5 provides the expectations on the climate expected by businesses in the coming months. The positive expectations in the production and services sector are particularly promising. Graph 5. Business expectations in Q1 216 for the next six months Change in percentage poin Businesses may be basing their expectations on recent fiscal amendments initiated by the Government in order to stimulate domestic production through exemptions for production lines and IT equipment, as these changes entered into force only late last year, more precisely after September 215. External Sector Trade continues to maintain the trends exhibited until now, where during the period from January to March this year, imported goods reached over 5 million euro in value. The following table gives four product groupd that constitute around half of total imports. Table 2. Imports by products, in ' euro Category Q1 215 Q1 216 Food, beverages, tobacco 25,88 71,477 Mineral Products 86,548 61,66 Base metals and products 38,21 52,721 thereof Machinery, mechanical and 55,917 69,521 electrical appliances Other 292,671 36,457 Total 499, ,836 Over 4% of total imports enters Kosovo from the European Union, whereas 3% from the CEFTA countries. The following table gives some of the countries from which Kosovo imports the most (that constitute over the half of total imports). We see that there is an increase by 13% of imports when compared to the same period of the previous 2 M a c r o e c o n o m i c O v e r v i e w J a n u a r y - M a r c h 216
3 year, where the highest increase in imports is of German and Turkish products, while imports from Serbia marked a slight decline by 2%, although the value of imports from this country remains the highest. Table 3. Imports by Country, in ' euro Country Q1 215 Q1 216 Germany 54,736 72,858 Italy 37,245 39,271 Serbia 8,287 78,835 Turkey 42,854 59,98 China 48,544 53,369 Other 235, ,595 Total 499, ,836 On the other hand, exports during this period reached more than 7 million euros; where the table below shows that nearly 6% of total exports consists of mineral products and base metals. Table 4. Exports by products, in ' euros Q1 215 Q1 216 Mineral Products 2,762 1,135 Base metals and products thereof 47,235 33,484 Other 26,32 28,317 Total 76,29 71,936 Even though the category of base metals constitutes 48% of total exports, we see that in comparison to the same period of the previous year metal exports have decreased by 3%, a decrease that can be attributed to the fall in the price of metals globally over the past year. Over half of Kosovo's exports were destined to EU countries and CEFTA countries, of which some main countries are presented in the table below. Table 5. Export by Country, in ' euros Q1 215 Q1 216 Italy 9,8 1,287 Albania 8,449 7,528 Macedonia 7,44 6,151 Serbia 3,316 5,368 India 15,373 5,146 Other 32,47 46,456 Total 76,29 71,936 The fall in metal prices during 215 brought about a change in the structure of base metal trade on a global level due to the influence of China as the main actor in today s industrial advancement. This has inevitably affected the structure of our exports given that Kosovar exports are heavily dominated by metals, resulting in a decline by 5% of total exports. However, it is worth noting that there has been an increase of about 4 million euros in exports to Serbia and that in general, exports to EU and CEFTA countries continue to maintain current trends. Fiscal Sector Budget revenues performed well during this period, of which border revenues marked a more significant increase; of about 26% compared to the same period of 215. Figure 6. Budget revenue, in million euros On the other hand, expenditures maintained levels similar to those of the same period of last year, marking an increase of 12% in total expenditure. It is worth mentioning that this increase is attributable mainly to the execution of capital expenditure (infrastructure projects) which were realized in the amount of 5 million euros during this period (compared to 3 million euros realized in Q1 215). Figure 7. Budget expenditure, in million euro Domestic revenue Border revenue Total revenue Capital expenditure Total expenditure Current expenditure Meanwhile, figure 8 presents government revenues and expenditures relative to the primary deficit. 3 M a c r o e c o n o m i c O v e r v i e w J a n u a r y - M a r c h 216
4 Figure 8. Total revenues, expenditure, and primary deficit Financial Sector Total revenue Total expenditure Primary deficit The financial sector in Kosovo remains well capitalized, where according to the Central Bank, deposits marked a light increase of 3% whereas loans increased by 7% in comparison to the same period of last year. Total assests in the financial sector marked a 5% increase compared to Q1 of 215, amounting to 3.4 billion euros by end March 216. Table 6. Deposits and loans in financial sector, cummulative, end of period (in million euros) Q1 215 Q1 216 Deposits 2,575 2,664 Loans 1,936 2,69 Total Assets 3,25 3, The Central Bank also provides information on the distribution of loans among the main sectors of the economy, followed by an increase of 6% of total lending. This increase was also mainly driven by the increase of loans directed towards the financial services sector, real estate, etc., as well as the agriculture sector. Although the value of loans in the latter is low, an increase of about 9% compared to the same period of last year is a positive signal, especially considering the above discussion on businesses and their perceptions. Table 7. Other Depository Corporations loans by economic activity (in million euros) (cumulative, end period) Q1 Q Agriculture 5 54 Industry and Energy Construction Wholesale and retail trade Financial Services. explat., Real Estate, rent, etc Other services Total 1,274 1,352 4 M a c r o e c o n o m i c O v e r v i e w J a n u a r y - M a r c h 216
5 Summary Table Description Q1 215 Q1 216 In million euros, unless otherwise indicated January February March January February March Real Sector Gross Domestic Product : : 1186 : : : * CPI (change in %, monthly) Foreign Sector Import of goods Export of goods Trade Balance Fiscal Sector Total revenues Of which : Border Revenues Domestic Revenues Total Expenditures Of which : Current Expenditures Capital Expenditures Total Deficit Financial Sector (cumulative, end of period) Deposits Loans Total Assets of Financial Sector Sources: Kosovo Agency of Statistics Central Bank of Kosovo Kosovo Treasury, Ministry of Finance Kosovo Chamber of Commerce ( : ) no data: in these cases, data are only available for the quarter as a whole period * Data are not available at the time of publication of this overview In case of any inconsistencies between versions, the Albanian version shall prevail Referencing data from this publication is permitted only by citing the source. The overview is published every quarter and any improvements are done the web-site Department for Economic and Public Policy and International Financial Cooperation Macroeconomics Unit May M a c r o e c o n o m i c O v e r v i e w J a n u a r y - M a r c h 216
Ministry of Finance January March 2018
milion euro Government of the Republic of Kosovo Macroeconomic Overview Ministry of Finance January March 218 The Macroeconomic Overview is published by the Ministry of Finance every three months and its
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