Indonesia Economic Quarterly March 2015 High expectations. Ndiamé Diop Lead Economist, Indonesia March 18, 2015
|
|
- Thomasine Powell
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Indonesia Economic Quarterly March 2015 High expectations Ndiamé Diop Lead Economist, Indonesia March 18, 2015
2 Introduction Ambitious economic policy reforms initiated, setting high expectations for what these could achieve: Fuel subsidies Infrastructure spending Business licensing But road from vision to reality is long: Policy and admin. reforms needed to sustainably mobilize revenues Overcoming execution constraints to absorb more and better capex Implementation of complex reforms, and consistent follow-through Reforms are vital, especially with the economy facing headwinds: Global growth is rising but commodity demand is not US Dollars: globally, becoming scarcer Possible revenue shortfall this year
3 Major recent developments Near-term economic outlook: relatively subdued Uncertainties 3
4 Recent developments: 1. China is not what it once was for Indonesia Year-on-year growth, percent Total China imports China real GDP China imports from Indonesia Dec-05 Dec-08 Dec-11 Dec-14 Note: Imports in US Dollars. Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations
5 and the commodity boom is over Exports, USD billion : -15.0% Total exports : -13.4% Commodityrelated products Manufactured products Source: World Bank
6 Implication: deep reforms needed to sustain growth of more than ~5.5% Year-on-year growth, percent GDP Potential output 4.0 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Source: BPS; World Bank staff estimates
7 Recent developments: 2. US Dollar strength (not Rupiah weakness) Cumulative change since June 2014, percent Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Rupiah against all currencies and adjusting for relative prices Rupiah against all currencies Bilateral USD/IDR Note: Rupiah against all currencies, and relative-priced, measures are based on daily proxy measure of nominal, and real effective exchange, rates. Source: CEIC; BIS; World Bank staff calculations
8 with more US Dollar strength potentially to come US Dollar against all currencies Jan-94 Jan-99 Jan-04 Jan-09 Jan-14 Source: BIS
9 Implications: possible shocks; working harder for scarcer dollars Relatively speaking, the Rupiah has done fine Comparing USD/IDR to past levels not meaningful other currencies, relative prices, matter but stronger USD environment does put a premium on more, and stable, net USD supply: More exports More foreign direct investment More domestic reinvestment More structural global investment portfolio allocations to Indonesia
10 Recent developments: 3. Revised 2015 Budget dramatic spending reallocation Percent of GDP Energy subsidies 5.0 Capital expenditure Note: outturns; 2015: Revised Budget Source: Ministry of Finance
11 but revenue targets are over-ambitious; spending may have to be adjusted Contributions to nominal revenue growth, percentage points Income tax O&G Income tax N-O&G VAT/LGST Excises Int'l trade taxes NRR O&G NRR N-O&G 2015 non-oil and gas revenue targets are not feasible Oil price impact Note: outturns; 2015: Revised Budget (compared with 2014 outturn). O&G denotes oil and gas, N-O&G denotes non-oil and gas; LGST denotes luxury goods sales tax; NRR denotes natural resource revenues. Source: Ministry of Finance; World Bank staff calculations
12 Implications: A long way to go to implement vision of the Budget New fuel pricing system is a banner reform: Sharply reduces wasteful, regressive spending Secures fiscal sustainability Cuts fiscal risks Capex surge - uncertain: Disbursement challenges quality; timing Limited fiscal space: achieving even half of the budgeted 100% increase in capex from the 2014 outturn will be difficult Revenues: Receding commodity tide has exposed weaknesses
13 Major recent developments Near-term economic outlook: relatively subdued Uncertainties 13
14 Base case: no sharp upturn in growth March 2015 IEQ Revisions (percentage change, unless otherwise indicated) p 2016p Real GDP Consumer prices Current account balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Note: Revisions are relative to December 2014 IEQ. Source: MoF; BPS; BI; World Bank projections 14
15 Major recent developments Near-term economic outlook: relatively subdued Uncertainties 15
16 Fiscal outlook: uncertain Rupiahdenominated fuel prices Year-on-year, percent Rupiah depreciation vs. USD ICP, USD price ICP, price in Rupiah Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15
17 Macro outlook: uncertain timing and scale of investment rebound Fixed investment has approximately halved since 2012 Weaker commodity sector investment, reduced retained earnings growth, tighter credit Base case: some rebound, helped by infrastructure spending, but timing and size is key source of forecast risk SOEs: IDR 70.4 trillion capital injection Quality and quantity of increased infrastructure spending? Private sector ready to come to the party? Business licensing reform push one stop services Strong initial momentum Complex implementation challenge
18 Conclusion March 2015 IEQ Contents Regular update on economic developments and the outlook Indonesia s internationally high and volatile rice price Streamlining business licensing in Indonesia The sustainable pace of GDP growth in Indonesia: a closer look Harnessing natural resources for Indonesia s development
Indonesia Economic Quarterly Launch Jakarta, March 18, Jim Brumby Sector Manager and Lead Economist
Indonesia Economic Quarterly Launch Jakarta, March 18, 214 Jim Brumby Sector Manager and Lead Economist MARCH 214 IEQ: INVESTMENT IN FLUX Fixed investment: subdued, and risks Risks to fiscal space needed
More informationIndonesia Economic Quarterly March 2017 Staying the Course. Hans Anand Beck Acting Lead Economist, Indonesia
Indonesia Economic Quarterly March 2017 Staying the Course Hans Anand Beck Acting Lead Economist, Indonesia March 22, 2017 Key Takeaways 2016 stronger economic fundamentals despite global uncertainty Growth
More informationIndonesia Economic Quarterly, July 2014 Hard choices. Ndiamé Diop Lead Economist
Indonesia Economic Quarterly, July 214 Hard choices Ndiamé Diop Lead Economist The new administration will face major near-term challenges Fiscal pressures Economic growth Poverty and inequality reduction
More informationINDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY MARCH 2013
INDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY MARCH 213 PRESSURES MOUNTING Jim Brumby, PREM Sector Manager & Lead Economist Paramadina Public Policy Institute, March 213 www.worldbank.org/id MARCH 213 IEQ LAUNCH PRESENTATION
More informationINDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY CLOSING THE GAP. Frederico Gil Sander Lead Economist October 3, 2017
INDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY CLOSING THE GAP Frederico Gil Sander Lead Economist October 3, 2017 How is the economy doing? What to expect in 2018? Closing the gap Growth steady amid mostly favorable conditions
More informationAPPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
APPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS Appendix Figure : Quarterly and annual GDP growth (percent growth) Appendix Figure : Contributions to GDP expenditures (quarter-on-quarter, seasonally
More informationNdiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013
Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013 Overview of recent economic developments Framing the policy choices for the current account and growth in 2014
More informationL-1 Part 2 Introduction to Indonesia Case Study
L-1 Part 2 Introduction to Indonesia Case Study IMF Singapore Regional Training Institute OT 18.52 Macroeconomic Diagnostics February 26 March 2, 2018 Presenter Stephan Danninger This training material
More information2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , ,000-1,500-2,000-2,500. May-13. Jun-13. Apr-13. Feb-13. Mar-13
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 QUARTERLY REVIEW June 213 ECONOMIC REPORT The End of Euphoria Perception vs.
More informationPRELIMINARY IMPACT OF GLOBAL CRISIS IN INDONESIA
PRELIMINARY IMPACT OF GLOBAL CRISIS IN INDONESIA 1 Preliminary Impacts Up to January 2009, some economic indicators still showed strong results while others started to reflect impact at early stage GDP
More informationIndonesia Economic Quarterly June 2017 Upgraded. Hans Anand Beck Acting Lead Economist, Indonesia
Indonesia Economic Quarterly June 2017 Upgraded Hans Anand Beck Acting Lead Economist, Indonesia June 15, 2017 Key Takeaways S&P upgrade acknowledged strong economic fundamentals and management. S&P returned
More informationIndonesia Economic Quarterly: December 2012 Policies in focus
Indonesia Economic Quarterly: December 212 Policies in focus Ndiame Diop Lead Economist & Economic Advisor, Indonesia World Bank December 18, 212 World Bank and The Habibie Center Joint Launch Event Intercontinental
More informationIndonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty 2016 Article IV Consultation Report on Indonesia John G. Nelmes IMF Senior Resident Representative for Indonesia Academic
More informationEmerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Divergence in emergers monetary policy This year economic activity across the emergers has been subdued but inflation has generally remained moderate, allowing
More informationEast Asia-Pacific Economic Update Clearing skies
East Asia-Pacific Economic Update Clearing skies William E. Wallace Lead Economist World Bank 4 November 29 Jakarta Indonesia Indonesia through the global crisis Growth has been picking up After stalling
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2007, growing at an annual rate of 3.4% Q/Q (+1.8% Y/Y), according to the GDP advance estimates
More informationMongolia Economic Brief
September 216 http://www.worldbank.org/mongolia Mongolia Economic Brief The budget deficit sharply rose in the first seven months of 216 amid spending increases and revenue shortfalls. The deficit reached
More informationKey developments and outlook
1/22 Key developments and outlook Economic growth projection is revised up from a stronger recovery of exports. Meanwhile, government spending remains an important growth driver. Private spending gradually
More informationIndonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27
More informationIndonesia chart book Consumption trumps weak trade
Economics Indonesia chart book Consumption trumps weak trade Group Research 7 August 2018 Radhika Rao Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +65 68785281 violetleeyh@dbs.com 2Q GDP
More informationMongolia Monthly Economic Brief
Mongolia Monthly Economic Brief June 21 Mongolia s economic growth in Q1 21, slowed to.% (y/y), down from % in the previous quarter. Investment sharply contracted by 1.% from the same quarter a year ago,
More informationINDONESIA. The Real Economy
INDONESIA Macroeconomic stability is strengthening in Indonesia. The external environment is likely to be supportive for the economy. This positive trend is reflected in the recent upgrade of Indonesia
More informationRecent Economic Developments
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA Recent Economic Developments January, 2010 Published by Investors Relations Unit Republic of Indonesia Address Bank Indonesia International Directorate Investor Relations Unit Sjafruddin
More informationIndian Economy. GDP growth slowed down but remained above the comfortable 7% Manufacturing GVAbp
Indian Economy Economic Growth GDP growth slowed down but remained above the comfortable 7% Domestic economy witnessed 7.1% GDP growth during the first quarter (Apr - Jun) of fiscal 2016-17 (Q1FY17) as
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents
Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors
More informationIndonesia Economic Quarterly: October 2012 Maintaining resilience
Indonesia Economic Quarterly: October 1 Maintaining resilience Ndiame Diop Lead Economist & Economic Advisor, Indonesia World Bank October 15, 1 Paramadina Public Policy Institute www.worldbank.org/id
More informationMacroeconomic policies conducive to job-rich and inclusive growth
Macroeconomic policies conducive to job-rich and inclusive growth Enrique Blanco Armas Senior Economist World Bank April 14, 2011 Launch of Labour and Social Trends Report for Indonesia Inter-Continental
More informationAsian Insights Third quarter 2016 Asia s commitment in policies and reforms
Asian Insights Third quarter 2016 Asia s commitment in policies and reforms One of the commonalities between most Asian governments is the dedicated commitment they have in using policies and initiatives
More information1. Macroeconomic Highlights
1. Macroeconomic Highlights ht Macroeconomic Highlights Resilient growth over the last 2 years, despite the global economic slowdown Banking industry robust with high level of CAR and low NPLN. In 2008
More informationB. SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA S ECONOMY
B. SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA S ECONOMY 1. Indonesia s trade flows through the global crisis: from peak to trough and back again Indonesia s trade flows halved during the global economic crisis,
More informationChina Economic Update Q1 2015
Key Developments in Brief Economic development Growth drivers Risks GDP growth slows to 7. Slowdown challenging, but manageable More easing policies expected Reforms progressing slowly Services and retail
More informationReviewing Macro-economic Developments and Understanding Macro-Economic Policy
MINISTRY OF FINANCE GOVERNMENT OF INDIA Reviewing Macro-economic Developments and Understanding Macro-Economic Policy Module 5 Contemporary Themes in India s Economic Development and the Economic Survey
More informationEconomic Outlook Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015
Economic Outlook 2016 Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015 Global outlook Domestic outlook 2 In 2016, recovery pace in most regions are expected to pick up except for China Eurozone 2.0 1.5
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released
More informationManaging Global Shocks: The Case of Indonesia
Managing Global Shocks: The Case of Indonesia Dr. Hartadi A. Sarwono Deputy Governor IIF Asian Regional Economic Forum Singapore, March 5, 2009 Outline 2 1. Crisis highlights 2. Macroconomic Condition
More informationOtaviano Canuto Vice President & Head of Network Poverty Reduction and Economic Management The World Bank
Otaviano Canuto Vice President & Head of Network Poverty Reduction and Economic Management The World Bank The 11th International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development April 6-8, 2010 Moscow
More informationRegional Economic Outlook
Regional Economic Outlook Caucasus and Central Asia Azim Sadikov International Monetary Fund Resident Representative November 6, 2013 Outline Global Outlook CCA: Recent Developments, Outlook, and Risks
More informationMexican Q1 economic data: a reality shock, or there is still a brighter outlook?
Mexican Q1 economic data: a reality shock, or there is still a brighter outlook? Rafael Amiel, Director Latin America Economics IHS Global Insight Julio 2013 Mexico becomes fashionable again Mexico Makes
More informationEconomic activity gathers pace
Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to
More informationSustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth
1 Sustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Source: Google images 2 PH emerges as growth leader in the ASEAN pack
More informationGlobal/Regional Economic and Financial Outlook. Odd Per Brekk Director IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific APEC SFOM, June
Global/Regional Economic and Financial Outlook Odd Per Brekk Director IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific APEC SFOM, June 11-12 2015 2015/SFOM13/002 Session: 1 Global/Regional Economic and Financial
More information2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch
2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch December 3 rd 2015 Jim Power Global Background US & UK growing at reasonable pace Euro Zone growing well below potential Emerging markets in some
More informationUK Economic Outlook March 2017
www.pwc.co.uk/economics Contents 1 2 3 4 Global outlook UK economic trends and prospects Consumer spending prospects after Brexit Will robots steal our jobs? 2 Global growth in 2017 should be slightly
More informationWorld Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November Press Launch November 4, 2009
World Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November 2009 Press Launch November 4, 2009 overview The Thai economy is rebounding from a rocky first half of 2009, but the medium-term outlook is uncertain. The Thai
More informationMacroeconomic and Financial Development: Mongolia
Macroeconomic and Financial Development: Mongolia WORKSHOPS ON SUPPORTING ASIA PACIFIC LLDCs AND BHUTAN IN MOBILIZING RESOURCES FOR THE SDGs 14 December 201 Current state of macroeconomic and financial
More informationThe Malaysian Economy
The Malaysian Economy Prospects and critical issues in 2011-20122012 Presentation for ISIS PRAXIS Seminar Nor Zahidi Alias Chief Economist March 3 rd, 2011 In a nutshell US economy is emitting more positive
More informationMyanmar Economic Monitor May 2018 Growth Amidst Uncertainty. Hans Anand Beck Lead Economist, Myanmar
Myanmar Economic Monitor May 2018 Growth Amidst Uncertainty Hans Anand Beck Lead Economist, Myanmar May 17, 2018 Key Takeaways The economy performed better in 2017/18 amidst uncertainty. A stronger-than-expected
More informationPerformance and Outlook. December 2015
Performance and Outlook December 2015 Agenda Macro Picture Performance Highlights Q&A 2 Agenda Macro Picture Performance Highlights Fundamentals (IIP) Output conditions Inflation Rates Credit and Deposit
More informationMONTHLY REPORT D A N A R E K S A R E S E A R C H I N S T I T U T E. October October Outlook: Moderating Trade
MONTHLY REPORT D A N A R E K S A R E S E A R C H I N S T I T U T E /132/to/217 October 217 TRADE OUTLOOK October Outlook: Moderating Trade Indonesia posted its largest trade surplus for the year in August,
More informationNIESR Monthly Estimates of GDP 10 November, GDP growth of 0.5 per cent in the 3 months to October FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Press Release GDP growth of 0.5 per cent in the 3 months to October FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output expanded by 0.5 per cent in the three months to October, slightly
More informationMonthly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO)
Monthly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) Special Edition ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) Singapore January 2018 This Monthly Update of the AREO was prepared by the Regional
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
More informationFX Strategy. Is CNY Strength Over?
Global Economics & Markets Research Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com URL: www.uob.com.sg/research FX Strategy Is CNY Strength Over? Friday, 09 February 2018 Heng Koon How, CAIA Head of Markets
More informationEcuador: Where from, where to
THIS IS NOT RESEARCH. PLEASE REFER TO THE IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND CONTACT YOUR CREDIT SUISSE REPRESENTATIVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS & PRODUCTS Latin America
More informationMonitorING Turkey ING BANK A.Ş. Further fiscal support in the Medium Term Plan. Emerging Markets 4 October 2017
q ING BANK A.Ş. ECONOMIC RESEARCH GROUP MonitorING Turkey October 17 Emerging Markets October 17 USD/TRY MonitorING Turkey Further fiscal support in the Medium Term Plan In 17, accelerated spending and
More informationLAO ECONOMIC MONITOR APRIL 2017
LAO ECONOMIC MONITOR APRIL 2017 May-June 2017 1. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook 2. Health Sector Financing in Lao PDR 1. Recent Economic Developments Contents 1. Key findings 2. Growth and inflation
More informationViet Nam GDP growth by sector Crude oil output Million metric tons 20
Viet Nam This economy is weathering the global economic crisis relatively well due largely to swift and strong policy responses. The GDP growth forecast for 29 is revised up from that made in March and
More informationMarch High expectations
March 215 High expectations INDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY High expectations March 215 Preface The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the
More informationFrom Stability to Prosperity for All
From Stability to Prosperity for All March 2012 PQU Press Presentation Rogier van den Brink, Lead Economist Karl Kendrick Chua, Country Economist Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) Unit World
More informationQ Budget Statement. Fiscal deficit narrows dramatically
August 20 20 Budget Statement Fiscal deficit narrows dramatically For comments and queries please contact: Fahad M. Alturki Chief Economist and Head of Research falturki@jadwa.com Total government revenue
More informationIndonesia Economics Update
Indonesia Economics Update THEE Kian Wie and Siwage Dharma Negara Economic Research Centre Indonesian Institute of Sciences (P2E LIPI) Jakarta 24 September 2010 Macroeconomic Developments Growth Balance
More informationCommercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York
US, China and emerging markets: What s next for the global economy? Commercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York Overview Key points for 2015-16 Global economy struggling to gain traction
More informationUNCTAD s Seventh Debt Management Conference. Addressing Debt Vulnerabilities: Role of Debt Strategies and Debt Managers A Policy Perspective
UNCTAD s Seventh Debt Management Conference 9-11 November 2009 Addressing Debt Vulnerabilities: Role of Debt Strategies and Debt Managers A Policy Perspective by Mr. Udaibir S. Das Monetary and Capital
More informationSaudi Arabia s 2009 Budget Report
Saudi Arabia s 9 Budget Report Fiscal Policy Remains Expansionary Highlights and NCB Views 24 December 8 On Monday, 22 December 8, the Council of Ministers endorsed the government s budget for 9 and announced
More informationGLOBAL FIXED INCOME OVERVIEW
2016 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing GLOBAL FIXED INCOME OVERVIEW Edward A. Wiese, CFA, Head of Fixed Income November 18, 2015 Global Fixed Income Outlook: Summary Environment Developed market yields
More informationCECIMO Statistical Toolbox
European Association of the Machine Tool Industries where manufacturing begins Inside this edition... 0 Executive Summary 1 Machine Tool Orders 1.1 Orders per Country 1.2 Peter Meier s Forecast CECIMO
More informationNational Economic Conditions. Cheyenne AIA Meeting February 25th, 2011 Rob Godby
National Economic Conditions Cheyenne AIA Meeting February 25th, 2011 Rob Godby Percent Change Recovery is Technically Underway 8 Quarter-Quarter Growth in Real GDP 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 I II III IV I II III
More informationThe External Environment for Developing Countries
d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries March 2008 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
More informationMexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy
Mexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* XP Securities Washington, DC, 13 October 2017 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document
More informationKey developments and outlook
1/17 Key developments and outlook Economic growths in 2016 and 2017 remain close to the previous assessment. Better-than-expected merchandise exports and private consumption compensate for weaker-than-expected
More informationChartering a new fiscal course
Early Warning Briefing Note issued: October 31 st, 2017 Economic, Banking & Industry Research of BCA Group - DKP Chartering a new fiscal course Executive Summary: APBN 2018 is set with a relatively narrow
More informationCommodities Observing the fundamentals Written by: Dwayne Dippenaar, Research Analyst at Laurium Capital
FUNDS ON FRIDAY b y G l a c i e r R e s e a r c h 24 J u n e 2 0 1 6 V o l u m e 8 6 7 Commodities Observing the fundamentals Written by: Dwayne Dippenaar, Research Analyst at Laurium Capital The South
More informationRussia: Macro Outlook for 2019
October 2018 Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 Natalia Orlova Head of Alfa Bank Macro Insights +7 495 795 36 77 norlova@alfabank.ru Egypt Saudi Arabia Brazil S. Africa UAE Iraq China Japan US Mexico UK Russia
More informationDevelopment Fund for Iraq
IAMB & COFE Meeting May 1213, 2008 Summary Audit Results December 31, 2007 Content Scope of work and deliverables Entities covered Financial statement Outstanding data Key issues Internal control material
More informationChikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund
Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund (percent YOY) 8 6 Real GDP Growth ASSUMPTIONS A more gradual monetary policy normalization 4 2 21 211 212
More informationHKU announces 2015 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast
Press Release HKU announces 2015 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast July 7, 2015 1 Overview The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong
More informationExports. Hike. Fed. China
Reform Oil China Fed Hike Exports Uneven global growth has led to an uncertain trade environment Asian exports remain fragile US on-shoring a lot of its manufacturing and China s economic slowdown have
More informationChina Economic Outlook 2013
China Economic Outlook 2 Key Developments in Brief - Mild recovery of GDP growth: +8 8.5% - Construction and consumption as main drivers - Inflationary pressure to increase: +3% - Tight labor market and
More informationEurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable
More informationSchroder Asian Income Monthly Fund Update
Schroder Asian Income Monthly Fund Update Fund Performance As at 30 September 2014, SGD 1 month Year to date Since launch* Schroder Asian Income Fund (Bid-Bid) (%) -1.7 8.4 35.2 Schroder Asian Income Fund
More informationCentral government administration (80%); Sub-national government administration (20%) Operation ID
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized PROGRAM INFORMATION DOCUMENT (PID) APPRAISAL STAGE 31 March 2016 Report No.: AB7818 (The
More informationKBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016
KBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016 Thailand Economic Monitor and BoT Forecast : March 2016 Thailand s economy steadied in February, though domestic demand decelerated slightly from January
More informationRecent Economic Developments, Program Discussions and Technical Assistance 1 Mozambique
Recent Economic Developments, Program Discussions and Technical Assistance 1 Mozambique Presentation to Donor Coordination Platform Ari Aisen April 6, 2017 1 This document has been prepared to elicit a
More informationCHINA S ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
CHINA S ECONOMY AT A GLANCE APRIL 218 CONTENTS Key points 2 Gross Domestic Product 3 Industrial Production 4 Investment 5 International trade - trade balance and imports International trade - exports 6
More informationAccelerating Momentum January 2008
The Republic of Indonesia Accelerating Momentum January 28 Disclaimer The presentation is being made to you on the basis that you have confirmed your representation to each of Barclays Capital, HSBC and
More informationJapan Chart Book. 5 February 2014
Japan Chart Book 5 February Japan: Economic Forecast Dashboard Forecast highlights Real GDP growth forecast at. in and. in 5 Slower consumption in -5 but offset by improved exports and investment Gradual
More informationECONOMIC COMMENTARY. Vehicle Sales. Economics South Africa. Total sales growth continues to points towards a rebound off a low base.
ECONOMIC COMMENTARY Economics South Africa 01 November 2017 Vehicle Sales Total sales growth continues to points towards a rebound off a low base Total new vehicle sales increased to 51 037 units in October,
More informationGlobal Crisis: Indonesia s Fiscal Policy Response
Global Crisis: Indonesia s Fiscal Policy Response Fauziah, Ph.D One Day International Seminar What kind of regulation for the economy? The case for Asia. (China, India, Indonesia, Japan) Tuesday, November
More informationINDONESIA. Figure 1. Less affected by shocks (Rupiah exchange rate before and after bombings) I. Recent Economic and Social Developments.
INDONESIA The next few months are crucial to Indonesia s mediumterm economic picture. A new economic policy package and early implementation steps by the new government would draw further attention from
More informationEditor: Felix Ewert. The Week Ahead Key Events Oct, 2017
Editor: Felix Ewert The Week Ahead Key Events 16 22 Oct, 2017 Tuesday 17, 11.00 ZEW Survey (Oct), Germany and EMU Germany SEB Cons. Previous Current Situation 89.5 88.5 87.9 Growth expectations 20.0 20.0
More informationSituación España 1T16. 1 st QUARTER. Situación. Españ. Economic Outlook. Latin America
Situación España 1T16 Situación 1 st QUARTER Españ Economic Outlook Latin America Latam outlook / February The global economy will continue to grow. but more slowly and with more risks. Uncertainty about
More informationCentral Bank of Seychelles
Central Bank of Seychelles Monetary Policy Decision Q3 2017 Media Presentation June 27, 2017 Evolution of Monetary Policy Pre-reform period Prior to the reforms in 2008, Seychelles implemented various
More informationRECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003
OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican
More informationMonetary Policy Report
CENTRAL BANK OF THE GAMBIA Monetary Policy Report November 20 The Central Bank of The Gambia Monetary Policy Report provides summary of reports presented at the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting. It entails
More information2017 FIRST QUARTER ECONOMIC REVIEW
2017 FIRST QUARTER ECONOMIC REVIEW MAY 2017 0 P a g e Overview The performance of the economy in the first quarter of 2017 was on a positive trajectory with annual growth projected to be about 3.9 % from
More informationMARKET ANALYSIS REPORT NO 1 OF 2015: ONION
MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT NO 1 OF 215: ONION 1. INTRODUCTION The purpose of this text is to analyze the onion marketing environment. This analysis will be updated on a quarterly basis. The interval covered
More informationEconomic and market snapshot for January 2016
From left to right: Herman van Papendorp (Head of Macro Research and Asset Allocation), Sanisha Packirisamy (Economist) Economic and market snapshot for January 2016 Global economic developments United
More informationMonetary Policy Report 1/12. Charts
Monetary Policy Report / Charts Chart. Projected output gap¹) for Norway's trading partners. Percent. Q Q - - - - MPR / MPR / - - - - - 8 ) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between GDP
More informationUnilever Trading Statement Q Graeme Pitkethly / Richard Williams 19 th April 2018
Unilever Trading Statement Q1 2018 Graeme Pitkethly / Richard Williams 19 th April 2018 SAFE HARBOUR STATEMENT This announcement may contain forward-looking statements, including forward-looking statements
More information