Semiconductor Manufacturing: Positive Growth in 2003

Transcription

1 Semiconductor Manufacturing: Positive Growth in 2003 SCEM Telebriefing 18 December 2002 Host: Speakers: Klaus-Dieter Rinnen Dean Freeman Jim Hines Jim Walker research consulting measurement community news

2 Major Forecast Changes Since Midyear Semiconductor revenue forecast still positive for 2002 units up 14%; for 2003, expect 12% revenue growth 2002: Capital spending and equipment growth forecasts -37% for Capital Spending -33% for WFE -23% for P&A Equipment 2003: Capital spending and equipment growth forecasts 15% for Capital Spending 16% for WFE 25% for P&A Equipment Next build cycle for new fabs delayed six months to 1H04 Next downcycle delayed up to nine months to early 2006 Page 1

3 Forecast Growth Scorecard Revenue Growth (%) Up Base Down Up Base Down World GDP U.S. GDP E Equipment* Semiconductor Capital Spending Equip. Spending WFE Equipment P&A Equipment Silicon (MSI) *Production revenue Page 2

4 Global Economy Is Struggling Uncertainty Brings Volatility United States is slowly recovering. Recoveries in Europe and Japan have stalled. Asia/Pacific has experienced a healthy rebound. Japanisstartingtoinvestagain. Middle East uncertainties are casting a pall over global markets. A global deflationary threat is growing. The interplay of confidence and economic policy will shape the recovery dynamic. High degree of risk and uncertainty will tilt the economic outlook to a more protracted recovery; expect continued market volatility. Page 3

5 Quarterly U.S. GDP Growth November 2002: Slower Outlook Anticipated U.S. GDP Growth (Percent SAAR) Revised Actual! Forecast 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 Source: Global Insight and Gartner Dataquest Page 4

6 Global GDP Growth Scenarios, Real GDP Growth 5 Optimistic, p=10% Rising Confidence Strong Policy Stimulus Most Likely, p=55% Falling Confidence Weak Policy Stimulus Pessimistic, p=30% Source: Global Insight (December 2002) Page 5

7 Electronic Equipment Production: Phased Recovery Under Way 2H02 1H03 2H03 1H04 Spending Consumer Corporate Cellular Phones PCs Communications Page 6

8 Quarterly Semiconductor Revenue: Uncertainty Reigns 2003 Market Billions of U.S. Dollars Scenarios (Probability) Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic % 1.4% -1.4% % +12% -9% 30 4Q98 2Q99 4Q99 2Q00 4Q00 2Q01 4Q01 2Q02 4Q02 2Q03 4Q03 Optimistic Pessimistic Most Likely Page 7

9 Semiconductor Revenue Forecast Billions of U.S. Dollars % 19% -2% % 12% Source: Gartner Dataquest (November 2002) Page 8

10 Supply Side: Positive Outlook After Years of Decline Two years of steep declines in CAPEX have limited excess capacity CAPEX lower than 1998 CAPEX capacity additions 15% of additions 20% over-investment at end of 2000, 14% under-investment at end of 2002 More than 100 fab closures between 2000 and 2003 have weeded out old excess capacity 10% of total. Leading-edge utilization was greater than 85% throughout Yield improvements at 130-nm effectively provide more capacity with little additional investment. Slight increase in demand can create capacity shortages. Foundry, DRAM, restructuring in Japan are bright spots for Empty shells/unfinished fabs allow a fast response to new demand. Expect manufacturers to plan and implement capacity increases very carefully. Page 9

11 Overall Wafer Fab Utilization: Ratio of Silicon Shipment to Fab Capacity 100% Leading-Edge 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 4Q97 2Q98 4Q98 2Q99 4Q99 2Q00 4Q00 2Q01 4Q01 2Q02 4Q02 2Q03 4Q03 2Q04 4Q04 Page 10

12 Foundry Fab Utilization Ratio of Silicon Shipment to Fab Capacity Leading-Edge 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 4Q97 2Q98 4Q98 2Q99 4Q99 2Q00 4Q00 2Q01 4Q01 2Q02 4Q02 2Q03 4Q03 2Q04 4Q04 Page 11

13 Foundry Market Revenue Forecast Billions of U.S. Dollars CAGR 21.4% Page 12

14 Quarterly WFE Forecast Scenarios Millions of U.S. Dollars (Seasonally Adjusted) 14,500 12,500 10,500 8,500 6,500 4,500 2,500 Scenarios (Probability) Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic % (0.15) -33% (0.70) -33% (0.15) % (0.20) +16% (0.50) +3% (0.30) 4Q98 2Q99 4Q99 2Q00 4Q00 2Q01 4Q01 2Q02 4Q02 2Q03 4Q03 2Q04 4Q04 Optimistic Pessimistic Most Likely Page 13

15 Percentage of Wafer Fab Equipment Shipped as 300-mm Percentage of Wafer Fab Equipment Market 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Page 14 Full Deployment Pilot/First Production R&D

16 What Is Hot and What Is Not in 2003? Selected Wafer Fab Equipment Segments 2003 Growth 60% E-Beam Mask Lithography 193-nm Steppers (~100%) 50% 40% ECD 30% 20% 10% 0% Implant RTP Track CMP Fac. Auto PVD Wet Diffusion Clean Dry Etch Nontube CVD Steppers ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4, Revenue (US$M) Process Control Market Growth Note: Some segments include OEM sales Page 15

17 Factory Utilization 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Page 16 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 2Q02 Total Industry P&A Factory Utilization Leading-Edge Util Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02

18 SATS Utilization 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Page 17 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 Utilization for SATS Leading-Edge Util Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00

19 Semiconductor Packaging and Test Market Forecast Revenue (Billions of U.S. Dollars) 50 SATS 40 IDM/OEM Page 18

20 Quarterly P&A Equipment Forecast Scenarios Scenarios (Probability) Millions of U.S. Dollars (Seasonally Adjusted) Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic -21% (0.10) -23% (0.80) -25% (0.10) +40% (0.25) +25% (0.50) +14% (0.25) 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1, Q98 2Q99 4Q99 2Q00 4Q00 2Q01 4Q01 2Q02 4Q02 2Q03 4Q03 2Q04 4Q04 Optimistic Pessimistic Most Likely Page 19

21 P&A Equipment Growth in 2003 Growth Flip-Chip Bonders AP Lithography 40% 30% 20% Solder Ball Attach Vision Inspection Lead Trim and Form Dicing Saws Mold./Encap. Wire Bonders Die Bonders Contact Probers Test Handlers Market Growth 10% 0% Revenue (US$M) Page 20

22 Long-Term View: Cycles Continue Capital Spending and Equipment Forecasts Billions of U.S. Dollars Capital Spending (excl. SATS) Billions of U.S. Dollars Capital Equipment [excl. Test]

23 Gartner Dataquest s Index of Semiconductor Market Leading Indicators, December 2002: Arbitrary Units Semiconductor Revenue Growth Actual Forecast 60% 50% 40% % 20% % % -10% Indicator Semiconductor Growth % -30% -40% Page 22

24 Conclusions Economy Expect gradual recovery in 2003 High uncertainty clouds immediate future Electronic Equipment Expect gradually improving macro conditions in 2003 to spur phased recovery pattern in application segments Corporate spending returns in 2003, strength dependent on economy Chips Expect typically slow 1Q03, with demand returning in 2Q03 Expect revenue growth of 12 percent Capital Spending and Equipment Supply-side fundamentals improving because of two-year spending cuts Anticipate utilization to exceed 85% in 2H03 More optimistic outlook on CAPEX with 15 percent growth in 2003 Second down-leg in quarterly WFE revenue for 4Q02, 1Q03 "Ready for Equip" fabs afford rapid equipment move in for 2003, allowing for 16% growth in WFE Next fab build cycle slipped in 2004; next downcycle early 2006 Page 23