Jerry D. Parrish, Ph.D. Chief Economist & Director of Research Florida Chamber Foundation
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1 Jerry D. Parrish, Ph.D. Chief Economist & Director of Research Florida Chamber Foundation
2 Six Pillars: Securing Florida s Future Together
3 Florida s Business Cycle Florida and U.S. Coincident Indices July 1992=100 Index Value 170 FL US Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04 Jul-06 Jul-08 Jul-10 Jul-12 Jul-14 Data Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
4 Florida Recession Detail 170 Florida's Recession was Longer and More Severe than U.S. US Recession FL Recession FL US Data Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
5 Job Creation Since Recession to July 2015 Top MSA Private Job Creators by % Job Growth Percent Job Growth Naples MSA 27, % The Villages MSA 4, % Cape Coral Ft. Myers 50, % Orlando 158, % State of Florida 996, % Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
6 12,000,000 Florida Projected Labor Force and Employment 11,000,000 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 Florida Needs 2 Million Jobs by ,000,000 Projected Labor Force Size Projected Employment (5% unemployment) Current Employment 6,000,000 Data Source: Florida Chamber Foundation Calculations
7 Population Percentage Change Florida Population Percentage Changes by Age Group -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total % -4.1% 19.6% 16.2% 13.8% 13.7% 10.9% 7.0% 12.9% 17.6% 22.8% 9.2% 15.6% 33.6% 33.0% 45.5% 46.9% 65.7% 80.3% Data Source: UF Bureau of Economic and Business Research
8 Changes to Florida s Population Age Group Florida Total 50 to , and over 2 Million 75 and over 918, and over 167,000 Data Source: UF Bureau of Economic and Business Research
9 Current Lee County Statistics Labor Force: 306,633 Current Employment: 290,115 Unemployment Rate: 5.4% vs FL 5.3% All ages Poverty Rate: 16.3% vs FL 17.1% 106,446 people in Lee County in Poverty Under 18 Poverty Rate: 27.3% - FL 24.8% 33,347 under-18 years old in Lee County in Poverty
10 Lee County s Future Job Needs 450,000 Lee County 400, , , ,950 Net New Jobs Needed by ,000 Projected Labor Force Size Projected Employment (5% unemployment) Current Employment 200,000
11 Florida Chamber Foundation FutureCast Lee County 1,000,000 Projected Population Projected Labor Force Size 911, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
12 Net New Jobs Needed Lee County Medium Population Forecast High Population Forecast ,848 50, , ,489
13 Lee County Estimated Population Percentage Change % 5% 25% 45% 65% 85% 105% Total % 2.4% 35.3% 32.6% 33.1% 23.5% 25.3% 19.5% 31.0% 34.0% 41.6% 26.9% 25.8% 34.4% 51.8% 53.2% 55.1% 77.7% 101.0% Data Source: University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR)
14 Lee County Pop Changes vs. Florida Lee County Florida -15% 5% 25% 45% 65% 85% 105% Total % 34.4% 53.2% 55.1% 77.7% 101.0% Data Source: University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR)
15 Expected Population Changes Lee County Population Increases by Age Group ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35, ,178 11,520 11,808 8,517 9,038 5,389 3,649 7,446 11,604 12,682 10,496 12,805 12,117 6,624 15,241 18,146 27,018 28,167 32,823 Data Source: University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR)
16 Lee County Population Increase by 2030 Age Group Percent Increase by 2030 Number of People Cumulative Number % 12,805 12, % 27,018 39, % 32,823 72, % 28, , % 12, , up 34.4% 6, ,554 Data Source: University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR)
17 How Can You Secure Florida s Future? Transportation Summit December 10 Jacksonville Education Solutions Summit Early June Orlando Military, Defense & Veterans Opportunities Summit Early August Tampa Interested in attending or joining our caucus groups on the topics that matter to you? Kassie Elekes at Kelekes@flfoundation.org for more information.
18 Thank You! Jerry D. Parrish, Ph.D. Chief Economist & Director of Research Florida Chamber Foundation
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