- GCRU- Weekly Trading Service

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1 - GCRU- Weekly Trading Service GCRU #654 September 9, 215 (in its 14 th year) IN THIS EDITION FED IN SPOTLIGHT 2 Open Positions 18 Abbreviations 19 MARKET LEADERS Gold (futures) 5 Silver (futures) 6 US Dollar Index 7 Copper (futures) 8 Crude (futures) 9 D. Industrials & D. Transports 1 HUI & Adv/Dec Line 11 STOCKS ishares 2+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) 13 Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) 14 Mkt Vectors Jr. Gold Miners (GDXJ) 15 Royal Gold (RGLD) 16 EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION (XOM) 17 PowerShares US Dollar Bearish (UDN) 7 Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble Warren Buffett

2 FED IN SPOTLIGHT: WILL THEY, OR WON'T THEY? The stock market jumped up in the second best rally this year, following the second largest weekly plunge in 215. Volatility and backing and filling continue. Some stability entered the Chinese market after the Labor day holiday, leading the global stock markets higher. Rumors that China may implement more stimulus measures also helped. to the March peak was more of a euro collapse rather than a strong U.S. dollar. If the Dollar index falls below 93, and stays there, we could see a jump up in commodities and gold. We re adding some bear put spreads to our positions. This pushed safe havens to the background as bond prices declined. Gold also nudged lower with the stronger stock market, but mainly gold is still fixated on interest rates. Will rates be raised next week for the first time since 26? The Fed is now weighing global gloom versus the rosier U.S. economy as their key interest rate decision gets closer. This will probably be the most watched announcement ever! Meanwhile, the commodity rout also calmed down this week which is part of our Chart Of The Week on the front page. When looking at the past year, note the clear break in July 214, when the Dollar started to jump up, and the commodity market began to tank. Yet now during the latest commodity collapse since last June, the Dollar index failed to rise. Instead it resisted at the March downtrend and declined when the Chinese sold Dollars during the Yuan devaluation. This shows a vulnerable dollar. And especially considering that the final run up

3 Copper jumped up today. Perhaps it's leading. We'll soon see. We'll keep our short position on the Dollar for now. The gold price, however, doesn't look promising ST. It continues to resist at its 75 day MA, see the Chart Above. Gold held up the best during the recent commodity washout, and while the rise, we call 'A' is losing steam, it's not over yet. If gold can stay above $11 and close back above its 'A' high (Aug 21) at $116, we'll then see a stronger 'A' rise develop. This would be a good overall sign. In a worst case, gold's ongoing bearish weakness since January will continue, and gold could then test the lows and possible go lower. Gold demand is strong. The Chinese have been buying tones over the last two months. And India is buying too. It's now a high buying season for them and for other countries. We'll keep our bullish spreads on gold and silver. Silver is looking better with the latest bounce in copper. But it too has some hoops to jump through before it's on easy street. Gold shares are forming a now 5 week bottom. They remain extremely oversold, and while they could stay there for a while longer, the next intermediate direction is up. We picked up some Royal Gold (RGLD) this week as it hit our buy order. Junior mines remain stronger than the seniors which in itself is a good thing for all gold shares. Buy GDXJ if you don't have it. A renewed rise in bond prices began in July, and it's still ongoing in spite of the recent week's softness, see the chart. It's still above its 75 day MA and the upside is open. We could see the highs tested before the rise is over. Keep your TLT, and buy more if our buy order is triggered. The stock market is still in a new bear market. The chart shows the Dow Jones Industrials consolidating above the lows. Most interesting here are the MAs. Note the 75 day MA (red) is ready to cross below the major 65 week MA. This is yet another bearish sign and a key resistance area. We're looking for a good time to pick up a short position, but not just yet. With crude oil bouncing up and with room to rise further, we're adding Exxon to our stable of charts. Buy a bit at market, and more on weakness. Our strategy for this week is to keep your positions and sell if a profit targets are reached, or a sell, if key support levels and stops are triggered. We continue to add to our positions slowly and in key undervalued sectors. Good luck and good trading, Omar Ayales Chief Trading Strategist GCRU A division of Aden Research Remember if it s Wednesday, it must be a GCRU day!

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5 JAN GOLD DECEMBER 215 (GCZ15) 9/8/215 CLOSE = 1121 MAR KEEP AN EYE ON JAN DOWNTREND & RESISTANCE AT JUL UPCHANNEL IS KEY JUL PIERCING THE ZEROLINE = WEAKNESS N D J F M A M J J A S Call Spread New Recom Bought Dec /17 COMEX gold call spreads for approx $1,3 (Nov-2-13); Dec /16 gold call spreads for approx. $875 (Jan-8-14); Dec /135 for approx $25 (Aug-12-15). Keep your call spread positions. Gold continues to show weakness. Downside pressure is growing. Gold is looking good above the Jul uptrend at 11 and if this level holds, we could see it re-test the Jan downtrend near 116. A break above this level would be bullish. On the downside, the Jan downtrend continues to gain strength. If the 11 is broken, we could see a drop to the lower side of the Jan downchannel near 1 after first surpassing the Jul lows at 175. Spinner turning bearish as its crosses below the zero line. This tells us the Jul uptrend is likely to be tested in the days or weeks ahead. Keep your bull spreads for now as we still have over 8 days till expiration. 5

6 JAN SILVER DECEMBER 215 (SIZ15) 9/8/215 CLOSE= CONTINUES TO BASE NEAR BOTTOM OF BOTH CHANNELS NOV SUPPORT AT 14.5 IS KEY RISING FROM THE LOWS J F M A M J J A S LT Call Spread Bought Dec /27 COMEX silver call spreads for approx. $1,1 (Nov-2-13) & Dec 215 (23/24 COMEX silver call spreads for approx. $725 (Dec-24-13). New Recom: Keep your bullish call spreads. Otherwise, stay out for now. Copper's bounce up is boosting silver. It bounced back from the lows and it s approaching a key ST resistance level near 15. Spinner is peeking above the MT MA as it approaches the zero line. However, Spinner's real resistance is its downtrend since Jan. The first real test will be if silver can break above the May downtrend on a 2dc above Silver will show strength above it and it could rise to the Jan downtrend near On the downside, silver is vulnerable below the May downtrend, and it could then decline to the lower side of the Jan downchannel near

7 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX SEPTEMBER 215 (DXU15) 9/8/215 CLOSE= MAR 215 DESCENDING TRIANGLE SHOWING DOLLAR TENDENCY 12 1 JAN PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish ETF (UDN) 9/8/215 CLOSE= 22.6 MAR UPTREND IS KEY JUN JUN ABOVE MT MA & ZERO = LOOKS GOOD M A M J J A S MAR J F M A M J J A S MOMENTUM STILL TO RISE New Recomm Consider buying Dec /91 bear put spreads at US$35. or better. Sell for a profit on a decline below 93. Sell for a loss if the dollar raises above 98 on a 2dc. Long Profit Target (Jul-29-15) & 28 Recom: Keep your position. Sell half near first profit target. The US dollar showed ST strength during the past week. However, it s still below an adjust August downtrend, and the main resistance level at 98 is still in tact. The dollar has been forming a bearish descending triangle between the Mar downtrend and the May/Jun low support level. Remember descending triangles are continuation patterns. This tells us the dollar is likely to continue declining in the months ahead as a downtrend has been established. However, a dollar break above 98 on a 2dc would violate the bearish pattern and a rise to test the Mar highs would then be likely. Keep in mind, the 93 support level is key. A break below it on a 2dc would push the dollar into a bear market. UDN continues to chug. It's looking good above the Mar uptrend. Keep your positions as long as the Mar uptrend holds. 7

8 COPPER DECEMBER 215 (HGZ15) 9/8/215 CLOSE= FOLLOWING THROUGH... BREAK OUT! JUL BREAKOUT! M J J A S -.15 Copper broke clearly above the May downtrend and continues to rise. It's approaching its next resistance level at the 75 day MA near 2.5. Copper has support at its 25 day MA near 2.32 and it'll be firm as long as this level holds. We're keeping a close eye on 2.5. If copper breaks above it on a 2dc, we could see a renewed rise take copper to the May highs near 3. Notice Spinner rising above zero for the first time since May. A good sign of strength as copper follows through on its rise after breaking above the May downtrend last week. 8

9 LIGHT CRUDE OIL DECEMBER 215 (CLZ15) 9/8/215 CLOSE= JUN BULLISH FLAG FORMS AS CRUDE HOLDS AT KEY SUPPORT M J J A S CONSOLIDATING RISE Bull Call Spread Dec /6 Bull Call Spreads at $425 (Aug-5-15); at $325 (Aug-12-15). New Recom: Keep your positions. Sell on a breakout above 51. Consolidating its rebound rise after testing key support levels Crude is backing and filling after reaching a 1 mo high last week. It s forming a bullish flag with an upside target at 58 (near May downtrend). A break above 48 is enough to get excited about more upside. However, crude must break above 5 to confirm bullish pattern that could fuel a rise to the flag target near 58. On the downside, 38-4 is a key support level. 9

10 SPDR DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL (DIA) 9/8/215 CLOSE= Shares Transportation Average (^IYT) 9/8/215 CLOSE= FEB MAR CONSOLIDATING VOLATILE NEAR THE LOWS F M A M J J A S JUL BOUNCING UP, APPROACHING ZEROLINE RESISTANCE BEARISH - AT LOWS MACD (12, 26, 9) 3 MACD (12, 26, 9) F M A M J J A S FEB MAR REBOUNDING FROM LOWS PEEKING ABOVE ZERO = SIGNS OF STRENGTH F M A M J J A S BEARISH AT LOWS F M A M J J A S New Recom Stay out. Downside pressure remains strong as long as the Industrials and the Transportations stay below their key resistance levels at 16,9 (DIA:171) and 8,1 (IYT: 15), respectively. Indicators for both averages are still bearish. Spinners are rising from extreme oversold levels and testing key resistance areas while MACD, medium term indicator, continues to be bearish at extreme oversold levels. Overall the bear continues to dominate the stock market and will likely continue to drive prices down further. We're getting ready to short the stock market through SDS on a stronger rebound rise. Until then, stay on the sidelines. 1

11 ADEN GOLD STOCKS ADV/DEC LINE 9/8/215 CLOSE = 4211 HUI GOLD BUGS INDEX (HUI) 9/8/215 CLOSE= DAY MA TESTING SUPPORT JAN DOWNSIDE WEDGE MAR WITH UPSIDE TARGET AT 16 FORMING APR WEEK BASE BUILDING CONTINUES DEC J F M A M J J A S 42 J F M A M J J A S 1 BELOW ZERO = WEAKNESS CHUGGING MACD (12, 26, 9) APPROACHING OVERSOLD MACD (12, 26, 9) TESTING THE ZERO LINE J F M A M J J A S J F M A M J J A S Downside pressure intensifies as gold shares continue to build a base at key support levels. Gold shares are at a crossroads. On the one side, HUI is forming a bullish downside wedge with an upside target near 16. If HUI breaks above 12 on a 2dc, the pattern would be confirmed. However, if HUI breaks below the Aug lows near 15 on a 2dc, a decline to the bottom of the Jan downchannel would then be likely, before a break upward begins. Downside pressure is strong. HUI s Spinner has failed to break above zero and it s testing a bullish uptrend showing a possible ST trend reversal. MACD is also showing weakness as it breaks below the zero line. Moreover, the A/D Line is testing the recent Aug lows. On the upside, Spinner and MACD for the A/D Line are reaching an extreme oversold level. This tells us downside may be limited and upside potential may start to build. Remember the 75 day MA is the A/D line s key resistance (4325). A clear break above this level would be necessary to see renewed strength in gold shares. 11

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13 Shares Barclays 2+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) 9/8/215 CLOSE= JAN APR HOLDING NEAR BOTTOM OF JUN-JUL UPCHANNEL J F M A M J J A S JUN JUL DOWN BUT NOT OUT ishares Trust - ishares 2+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) - NYSEArca Long at: Stop: Profit Target New Recom: (Jul-1-15), (Sept-3-15). 2dc below 118 (adj). 13 & 135 Keep your positions. If not in, buy some at mkt, below 121 but above 118. TLT resumed its decline, slipping below its bullish Jul uptrend. However, TLT has an upside target near 126 as Spinner slowly forms a bottom near an oversold level. This tells us if TLT breaks above 122 on a 2dc, we could see it rise to the target area at 128. Keep your positions as overall upside potential is higher than downside risk. 13

14 AGNICO EAGLE MINES LIMITED (AEM) 9/8/215 CLOSE= HOLDING AT SUPPORT ADJUSTED UPTREND LOOKS GOOD APPROACHING A LOW AREA M J J A S Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) -NYSE Long at: Stop: Profit Target: 23 (Jul-22-15), 23 (Jul-29-15)., 21.4 (Aug-5-15) Sold half at 26.4 for an average 17% gain (Sept-4-15). 2dc below , 3 & 35. New Recom: Keep your half position. Sell second half at second profit target. AEM failed to follow up on last week's rise and declined further on overall gold share weakness. Spinner is in bearish territory but near an extreme oversold. This tells us AEM might be near a bottom at its recent Aug low. If AEM holds above this level, it'll be positioned to re-test the May downtrend near 27 (our first profit target). However, a break below the Aug low & support would be bearish. Keep your positions as long as the 22 level holds. 14

15 MKT VECTORS JR. GOLD MINERS (GDXJ) 9/8/215 CLOSE= JAN JULY UPTREND STILL GROWING JUN DEC JUL TESTING ZERO & MT MA D J F M A M J J A S Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) - NYSEArca Long at: Stop: (Aug-12-15). 2dc below Profit target: 24, 27 and 3. New Recom: Keep your position. If not in, buy below 2. Holding up better than seniors. GDXJ is bottoming above the Jul uptrend near 19. Spinner is lackluster, but continues on an uptrend since Mar. Continue to keep as long as GDXJ holds at the Jul uptrend. 15

16 JAN ROYAL GOLD (RGLD) 9/8/215 CLOSE= 45.7 JUN CONTINUES TO HUG BOTTOM SIDE OF CHANNEL Royal Gold, Inc (NASDAQ: RGLD) Also traded in TSX:RGL NEARING EXTREME OVERSOLD J F M A M J J A S SEPT Long: Stop: Profit targets: New Recom: 46.5 (Aug-26-15), (Sept-4-15) 2dc below 44 (adj). 52 (new), 55 & 6. Keep your positions. Sell half at first profit target. RGLD declined further largely due to weakness in gold, reaching the bottom side of the Jan downchannel near 45. RGLD's next support is at the 52 wk lows near 44. Spinner also near an extreme oversold level telling us downside is limited to possibly the 52wk low. Notice everytime Spinner has reached an extreme level during the past year, RGLD has bounced between a 1-15%. Keep your positions and be quick to sell if profit target is reached or on the downside, if 44 is violated on a 2dc. 16

17 EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION (XOM) 9/8/215 CLOSE= BOUNCING UP FROMA 52 WK LOW 7 M J J A S Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) -NYSE New Recom: Buy some at mkt. Place stops on 2dc below 66. Profit targets at 8, 85 & 9. If declines further buy near 7. ABOVE MT MA & TESTING THE ZERO LINE Forming a bullish flag with upside target at 85. Spinner rising from an extreme oversold level as it approaches the zero line. A Spinner break above zero would trigger a shift in momentum that could push XOM to test the May downtrend near 78. On the downside, keep an eye on 7. Although 66 are the lows and support area, a break below 7 on a 2dc would signal weakness that could push XOM below the 66 support level. 17

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19 Quoting GCRU is permitted provided GCRU name, website address & subscription price are given. All charts in GCRU are daily prices. Fax subscribers please note this week s password to access GCRU daily edition via our website is: (ratehike). Subscribers can obtain free online chart updates for all gold shares in GCRU via: To view Canadian stks please use CA as prefix (ie, to view Agnico Eagle (Toronto) you must use CA:AEM). Note: U should NOT feel our recommended prices are set in concrete. If mkts suddenly feel hot or cold to U, or dramatic news occurs, U can buy or sell, or stop at slightly higher or slightly lower prices. It also hinges on your experience level. Some people can use our prices as guides & know when they can take bigger risks. Spinner: Spinner is an in-house momentum indicator (not always shown on charts). Momentum indicators use the rate of change in price to determine predominant energy flows. Spinner trading signals are generated when the faster timing line crosses above or below the slower confirming line. Upside crosses in the lower range of positive territory offer the most reliable signals for longs; downside crosses in the top range of negative territory for shorts. Avoid trading against the timing line, ie, buying/selling if the timing line is in corrective mode (against direction of trade) unless the 1dc 2dc bot CAD$ H&S LOC LT MT NL PF PO Recom RH&S RS ST Sym/tri Tgt Unch Vol Wk Ystdy C ABBREVIATIONS 1-day close (the share price must close above or below the indicated price level, before our recommendation is activated) 2-day close (consecutive) bought Canadian dollar head & shoulder line on close long term medium term neckline portfolio price objective recommended reverse head & shoulder relative strength short term symmetrical triangle target unchanged volume week yesterday close confirming line is positioning for a new 'confirming cycle'. It's important to always be aware of location, direction & cycling phase of the confirming line. Spinner signals are more effective in trending mkt's than in trading ranges where indicators such as Stochastics & Williams %R should be used. NOTE: payments for GCRU services should be made payable to MAP CUSTOMER SERVICE. Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us is published weekly. You may sign up for 3-mos at $3, 6-mos at $585, 9-mos at $855 or 12-mos $1,11. gcru@adenforecast.com - DISCLAIMER - Due to the electronic nature of s, there is a risk that the information contained in this message has been modified. Consequently Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us can accept no responsibility or liability as to the completeness or accuracy of the information. Whilst efforts are made to safeguard messages and attachments, Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us cannot guarantee that messages or attachments are virus free, do not contain malicious code or are compatible with your electronic systems and does not accept liability in respect of viruses, malicious code or any related problems that you may experience. Information in Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us is for general information only & is not intended to be relied upon by individual readers in making specific investment decisions. Appropriate independent advice should be obtained before making any such decisions. Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us do not guarantee or assure that readers will make money, or accept liability for any loss suffered by readers as a result of any such decision. Futures and share trading involves risk and is not for all investors. Past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Trading involves risk and should be pursued with risk capital only! 19