- GCRU- Weekly Trading Service

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1 - GCRU- Weekly Trading Service GCRU #628 March 4, 215 (in its 14 th year) IN THIS EDITION DOLLAR AT 11 YEAR HIGH! 2 Open Positions 19 Abbreviations 2 MARKET LEADERS Gold (futures) 6 Silver (futures) 7 US Dollar Index 8 Copper (futures) 9 Crude (futures) 1 D. Industrials & D. Transports 11 HUI & Adv/Dec Line 12 STOCKS ishares 2+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) 14 Physical Palladium (PALL) 15 Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) 16 Royal Gold (RGLD) 17 Direxion Gold Miners Bear 3x (DUST) 18 The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... George Soros 1

2 ALL THAT GLITTERS IS NOT GOLD T he stock market continued its upward hike with the Nasdaq rising above 5 on Monday for the first time since March 2, just a few points away from a new record high! Palladium got a shot in the arm this week as it jumped up to an over 5 month high helped along with the firming resource sector. Otherwise, gold, silver gold shares and bonds continue grazing. That is, they're still basing. Interest rates continued to dominate many of the markets this week. Will the Fed raise rates soon, or not. Will it be next year? The ongoing hope that interest rates will rise soon is helping to keep the Dollar strong. This is why we put the Dollar index as our Chart Of The Week. The ongoing strong rise since last July is impressive. It reached an 11 year high yesterday and it's very strong by staying above its 75 day MA at 92. Granted, the U.S. dollar has also been a safe haven during a good part of this rise, and a clear break above 96 would continue this surging rise. In reality, many of the other currencies have been falling which has given the Dollar a big boost. Be it the euro due to the Greece debt drama and their historical liquidity program, or the petro currencies getting hit by the collapse in crude. Plus the low to negative rates in many of the countries has also added strength to the Dollar. Most interesting is that about half the Dollar rise occurred while gold was forming a bottom and rising from it. In other words, gold has been holding up very well in face of a surging Dollar since November. The Dollar index rose from the 86 level to 96 while gold was bottoming and rising into the New Year. This is one reason why we're accumulating gold as it weakens, which we did again this week. We picked up some gold and silver yesterday when both declined intraday below our buy signal. If the Dollar index declines in a normal correction as the indicator suggests, it will likely give gold a good boost. Meanwhile gold continues to resist at its 75 day MA at $122. And as long as it stays below this level, to more likely we could see further weakness ST. We're currently out of gold shares and remain on the sidelines. Our open orders on gold shares has yet to be triggered, but it looks like it could happen this week. Be on the alert for a possible buy in AEM or RGLD. We're keeping a close eye on NUGT for those of you who have a stronger gut! Gold shares are stronger than gold. They continue to lead gold and they're bullish with the HUI index staying above 18, it 15 week MA. But gold shares are not out of the woods just yet, and we could still see more weakness. HUI resisted this week below its 5 week MA which has been a key ST resistance level. 2

3 We continue to hold a position in DUST (3X inverse ETF for HUI). Keep this position until our profit target is reached or until HUI breaks clear above its 5 week MA on a 2dc. With the Dow Industrial average at a new high again this week, our DIA position is paying off. We re sitting on some profits and more upside seems likely. However, keep in mind we haven't received a bullish Dow Theory confirmation yet, because the Transportation average continues to lag. It broke above a ST resistance level but continues to resist below the all-time highs. As we ve been saying, a break above this level for the Industrial average is needed to confirm overall bullishness and more upside. The resource sector rose together with the stock market. Copper, one of our primary gauges for the resource sector, broke above a key ST resistance level above the 2.6 showing strength. The Chart Above shows copper's rise from the lows. It's looking better but it's not out of the bearish woods until it first closes above $2.76, its 75 day MA on the chart. Silver has been bottoming versus gold for the past month. This is thanks in good part due to the rise in copper. It's helping to keep silver firm in a bottoming area, as you can see on the chart as well. The firmer resources also helped PALL to break above a key resistance of its own, surpassing our first profit target. We sold PALL earlier this week at 8 for an average 6.5% gain. However, we recommend staying on the sidelines for now as upside seems limited and so does the rest of the resource sector. TLT continues to hold on to its bullish Sept uptrend. However, downside pressure is increasing as TLT remains near the uptrend. We currently have a full position. We believe US bonds will continue to rise in a world were negative interest rates are becoming the norm and uncertainty remains high. 3

4 Our strategy for this weeks is to keep your positions. Remain on the sidelines with gold shares until HUI can confirm support above the 18 level. Be ready to take profits on DUST if profit targets are reached. Hold on to your bonds, gold, silver and DIAs. Good luck and good trading! Omar, Pamela and Mary Anne If it's Wednesday, it's a GCRU day! 4

5 MARKET LEADERS 5

6 GOLD APRIL 215 (GCJ15) 3/3/215 CLOSE = BROKE ABOVE BULLISH DOWNSIDE WEDGE... RESISTENCE BELOW DOWNTREND IS STRONG FEB NOV 1143 IS KEY SUPPORT FLIRTING WITH THE BULLS N D J F M LT Call Spread Bought Dec /17 COMEX gold call spreads for approx $1,3 (Nov-2-13) & Dec /16 gold call spreads for approx. $875 (Jan-8-14). Long at: 1235 (Jan-14-15), 1232 (Feb-6-15), 125 (Feb-17-15), 1198 (Mar 3-15). Stops 2dc below Profit Targets 135 & 142. New Recom Keep your positions. Gold continues to struggle with breaking above the Jan downtrend and its 75 day MA. Spinner also showing increasing downside pressure as it failed to break above the zero line and into bullish territory. Gold tested the Nov uptrend near 1195 today. We picked up more gold below 12. Let s see if it can rise above its key resistance near 122. A break below 119 would be bearish and a decline to 1175, and then to possibly the 1143 support level would then be likely. Keep in mind, however, if gold continues to hold at its uptrend and support near 119, it ll show super strength and could then rise to the 13 level, or higher! If not in, buy on weakness below 12. 6

7 SEPT SILVER MAY 215 (SIK15) 3/3/215 CLOSE= NOV UPTREND IS KEY SUPPORT BUT DOWNTREND CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH NOV SUPPORT LINE IS KEY LT Call Spread NOV S O N D J F M Bought Dec /27 COMEX silver call spreads for approx. $1,1 (Nov-2-13) & Dec 215 (23/24 COMEX silver call spreads for approx. $725 (Dec-24-13). ABOVE MT MA, WATCH ZERO LINE Long at: (Dec-1-14), (Feb-23-15), 16.1 (Mar-3-15) Long Stop 3dc below Long Profit Target New Recom: 2 & 22. Keep your positions. Strength in the resource sector is giving silver some support above the Nov support level near 16. We picked up some silver near this level today. If silver holds at the Nov uptrend, it could then rise to test its first resistance at Jan downtrend near However, Spinner showing some downside pressure as it failed to cross above the zero line. This tells us we could see more weakness develop ST. Keep in mind, a break below the Nov support would be bearish for silver. Keep your positions. 7

8 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX MARCH 215 (DXH15) 3/3/215 CLOSE= YEAR CLOSING HIGH! BULLISH ASCENDING TRIANGLE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MORE UPSIDE AUG OCT A S O N D J F M DEC BROKE ABOVE MT MA = ROOM TO RISE FURTHER New Recom: Stay out. The US Dollar Index broke above its Jan high resistance on a close, as Spinner broke above the zero line and its MT MA showing impressive strength. Spinner also showing room to rise further telling us the dollar could be starting a renewed rise in its bull mkt. The dollar is super strong above 94.5 (Dec uptrend) and it has solid support above 92. Although the dollar continues to rise with strength, gold has not declined much as a result and continues to hold above key levels. This tells us that although the dollar is strong, it's likely due to weakness in other currencies and not simply strength on its own. If gold holds at the 119 level while the dollar continues to rise, we ll see gold s true strength as well as good upside potential in the MT and LT. 8

9 COPPER MAY 215 (HGK15) 3/3/215 CLOSE= AUG BREAKOUT! NOW APPROACHING MT RESISTANCE NEAR NOV BULLISH! A S O N D J F M -.2 New Recom: Stay out. Copper jumped a key ST hurdle after breaking above the Nov downtrend with strength. Spinner turned bullish after breaking above a key resistance level showing room for more upside. However, copper is not out of the woods yet. It must break above its intermediate resistance level on a 2dc above 2.88 to see renewed strength that could pull copper out of its bear mkt. If copper fails to break this resistance, it'll confirm weakness and could then decline back to the Jan uptrend near 2.62, initially. Copper will continue to reflect a struggling world recovery and stronger deflationary forces as long as it stays below 3. 9

10 LIGHT CRUDE OIL JUNE 215 (CLM15) 3/3/215 CLOSE= 54.7 SEPT HOLDING AT UPTREND AND TESTING STRONG RESISTANCE NEAR NOV 8 SUPPORT 45 BROKE BELOW UPTREND = WEAKNESS BELOW MT MA. S O N D J F M Call Spread Profit Targets New Recom: Jun 15 Crude call spread 55 on 45 on 1 on Dec & 8 Keep your call spread positions. Failed to follow through once again Excesive supply and lack of global demand within a luckluster economic recovery worldwide continues to add to the oil glut, putting downside pressure on crude. However, despite weakness, crude has held above the Jan lows as well as the $5 level, giving us a good indication that the lows may be set for crude. We ll continue to keep a close eye on crude as it ll become a great investment once demand picks up. 1

11 SPDR DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL (DIA) 3/3/215 CLOSE= US$ Shares Transportation Average (^IYT) 3/3/215 CLOSE= US$ OCT RECORD HIGHS! DEC VULNERABLE BELOW MT MA O N D J F M O N D J F M DEC FEB... UPSIDE WEDGE WITH DOWNSIDE TARGET NEAR 174 FORMING SLIPPING BELOW ZERO = WEAKNESS O N D J F M MACD (12, 26, 9) ALSO VULNERABLE BELOW MT MA MACD (12, 26, 9) ZERO LINE IS KEY OCT NOV DEC O N D J F M BULLISH ABOVE 158 NOV (ADJ) RESISTANCE IS STRONG DIA Entry Level Stop (Feb-4-15). 2dc below 179 (adjusted). Profit Target 185 New Recom Keep your positions. More record highs for the Dow Industrials on Monday! However, Transportations continue to lag failing to trigger a bullish Dow Theory confirmation allowing for more upside. A non confirmation from the Transports could signal exhaustion that could eventually lead to weakness. However, despite weakness in this particular sector, most of the stock market continues to rise with strength showing potetial for more upside. On the downside, notice DIA forming a bearish upside wedge with downside target at the Oct uptrend near 174. If DIA breaks below 181 on a 1dc, it ll confirm wedge break and a decline to the Oct uptrend would then be likely. Conversely, if DIA breaks above 183, it ll likely rise to our profit target. Indicators overall within bullish territory but starting to decline. If Spinners and MACDs cross below the zero line, they would expose weakness and some downside pressure. Keep your positions for now. 11

12 JUL ADEN GOLD STOCKS ADV/DEC LINE 3/3/215 CLOSE = 4513 AUG FAILED TO BREAK ABOVE A 5+ MO HIGH... BULLISH ABOVE DEC UPTREND & MA HUI GOLD BUGS INDEX (HUI) 3/3/215 CLOSE= RESISTING AT DOWNTREND & 25 DAY MA MAR DAY MA DAY MA IS KEY SUPPORT NOV DEC J A S O N D J F M NOV DEC DEC NOV/DEC LOWS ARE KEY SUPPORT N D J F M BULLISH ABOVE ZERO RESISTING AT ZERO = VULNERABLE MACD (12, 26, 9) MOMENTUM RISING MT J A S O N D J F M MACD (12, 26, 9) A GOOD START N D J F M Gold shares remain steady as both the A/D Line and HUI held above the 75 day MA near 45 and 18, respectively. The A/D Line is forming a 2 mo sideways band between the 75 day MA and the recent Jan and Feb highs near 455 showing a key ST support and resistance level. Moreover, the A/D Line has also formed an uptrend since Dec forming a bullish ascending triangle (continuation pattern). If the A/D Line now stays above the Dec uptrend and breaks above 455, gold shares would gain strength and could then continue rising. On the downside if A/D Line breaks below 45, downside pressure would increase and more downside would be likely. Overall, downside pressure remains strong. We recommend staying out of gold shares until HUI breaks above its 5 wk MA at 194 and the A/D LIne above 455. Continue to keep DUST as it'll continue to perform as gold shares remain under pressure. 12

13 STOCKS 13

14 ishares Barclays 2+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) 3/3/215 CLOSE= SEPT PULLING BACK... SLIPPING BELOW 75 DAY MA AND SEPT UPTREND S O N D J F M RESISTING NEAR ZERO LINE = WEAKNESS ST, BUT FIRM ABOVE MT MA FEB Long at: Stop: Profit Target New Recom: (Feb-1-15), (Feb-11-15), 127 (Feb-17-15), (Feb-25-15). 2dc below & 145 Keep your positions. Slipping below the Sept uptrend TLT failed to follow through on its bullish downside wedge breakout. Notice Spinner showing weakness as it resisted near the zero line. This shows increasing downside pressure. TLT must now hold above the Feb lows near 126. Otherwise, it could then decline to the 214 uptrend and support at level. On the upside, TLT s next resistance is at 13, and then its Jan downtrend near 134. A break above this level on a 2dc would erase the recent decline and TLT could then resume its bullish rise. 14

15 ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (PALL) 3/3/215 CLOSE= 8.52 BULLISH BREAKOUT! 5½ MONTH HIGH! 82 DEC OCT APPROACHING EXTREME OVERBOUGHT = LIMITED UPSIDE ST O N D J F M ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (PALL) - NYSEArca Long at: New Recom: 77.5 (Oct-8-14), 76 (Oct-1-14), 74.5 (Oct-15-14), 72.5 (Oct-16-14). Sold all at 8 on Mar-2-15 for an average 6.5% gain since Oct! :) Sold all; stay on sidelines for now. PALL received a boost from ST strength in the resource sector, breaking above the top side of the 5+ mo long sideways band showing impressive strength. Spinner very bullish but also very overbought showing limited upside ST. Overall PALL has risen too far, too fast and some down time is warranted. Keep in mind, PALL is super bullish above 76 and very strong above 72, its major support. Moreover, strength in the resource sector could be short lived and a decline could drag PALL down. Stay out for now. 15

16 Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) 3/3/215 CLOSE= CAD$ NOV TESTING ADJ FEB DOWNTREND... DEC N D J F M FEB ADJ DEC UPTREND SHOWING GOOD ENTRY LEVEL NEAR 31. BULLISH IF STAYS ABOVE MT MA Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) -NYSE New Recom: Out. Buy some near Place stops 2dc below 28. Profit target at 35 and 4. AEM broke above the Feb downtrend earlier this week after reaching the (adj) Dec uptrend showing strength. Spinner confirmed by rising above the zero line. The (adj) Feb downtrend is converging with AEM s 25 day MA forming a key resistance level near AEM rose above it today during the morning but resisted and declined towards the end. This tells us AEM must break above this level to show strength. On the downside, keep an eye on the Dec uptrend near 31 initially and the 75 day MA near 28. The 75 day MA has become a key support level for gold shares. A break below this level would push AEM to re-test the Nov/Dec lows near

17 AUG ROYAL GOLD (RGLD) 3/3/215 CLOSE= 7.15 US$ FEB LOWS BECOMING SOLID SUPPORT FEB OCT HOLDING AT MT MA AND ZERO = AT KEY JUNCTURE 55 A S O N D J F M Royal Gold, Inc (NASDAQ: RGLD) Also traded in TSX:RGL New Recom: Buy some below 7. Place stops at 2dc below 66. Profit targets at 75 and 83 RGLD held at the Feb low showing strong support despite increasing downside pressure. RGLD must rise above the Aug downtrend to confirm strength that could push RGLD to the top side of the Oct upchannel newar 83. Notice also Spinner holding above zero and its MT MA showing support and strength. On the downside, if Spinner slides below these levels, it'll trigger a sign of weakness. Keep in mind that a break below the Feb support could add downside pressure to RGLD and it could then decline and test the 214 uptrend. 17

18 DIREXION GOLD MINERS BEAR 3X Shrs (DUST) 3/3/215 CLOSE= DEC HOLDING ABOVE KEY SUPPORT LEVEL AT LOW NEUTRAL D J F M -8 GOLD MINER BEAR 3X DIREXION (NYSE: DUST) Long at: (Feb-18-15), 13.5 (Feb-26-15). Stop: Profit Target 2dc below (adjusted) & 3. New Recom: Keep your positions. DUST is an inverse ETF for gold shares; a hedge against further weakness. It continues to rise slowly from its solid support at the Jan lows. It s also holding above its 25 day MA showing good upside potential to possibly its own 75 day MA, near 2. We ll continue to hold DUST until HUI breaks clearly above its own 25 day MA; a profit target at 2 is reached; or on a decline below the Jan low support on a 2dc. 18

19 OPEN POSITIONS Symbol Trade Update &/or Current Position Status Initial Initial Entry Traders re- Last Stops Target Target (L=Long, S= Entry Date Price bot/ -sold at Closing #1 #2 Short, O= Price Out P= Put C= Call) SHARES TLT Keep your positions. L Feb , dc below PALL Sold all; stay on sidelines for now. O 8.52 AEM Out. Buy some near Place stops 2 dc below 28. Profit target at 35 and 4 O dc below DUST Keep your positions. L Feb dc below RGLD Buy some below 7. Place stops at 2dc below 66. Profit targets at 75 and 83 O dc below DIA Keep your positions. L Feb'4' dc below MARKET LEADERS Gold - GCJ15 Keep your positions. L, C Jan , 125, dc below Crude- CLM15 Keep your call spread positions. C Oct Jun 15 Call Spread 89/ Silver SIH15 Keep your positions. L, C Dec , dc below US Dollar DXH15 Stay out. O COPPER HGH15 Stay out. O

20 Quoting GCRU is permitted provided GCRU name, website address & subscription price are given. All charts in GCRU are daily prices. Fax subscribers please note this week s password to access GCRU daily edition via our website is: (resisting). Subscribers can obtain free online chart updates for all gold shares in GCRU via: To view Canadian stks please use CA as prefix (ie, to view Agnico Eagle (Toronto) you must use CA:AEM). Note: U should NOT feel our recommended prices are set in concrete. If mkts suddenly feel hot or cold to U, or dramatic news occurs, U can buy or sell, or stop at slightly higher or slightly lower prices. It also hinges on your experience level. Some people can use our prices as guides & know when they can take bigger risks. Spinner: Spinner is an in-house momentum indicator (not always shown on charts). Momentum indicators use the rate of change in price to determine predominant energy flows. Spinner trading signals are generated when the faster timing line crosses above or below the slower confirming line. Upside crosses in the lower range of positive territory offer the most reliable signals for longs; downside crosses in the top range of negative territory for shorts. Avoid trading against the timing line, ie, buying/selling if the timing line is in corrective mode (against direction of trade) unless the 1dc 2dc bot CAD$ H&S LOC LT MT NL PF PO Recom RH&S RS ST Sym/tri Tgt Unch Vol Wk Ystdy C ABBREVIATIONS 1-day close (the share price must close above or below the indicated price level, before our recommendation is activated) 2-day close (consecutive) bought Canadian dollar head & shoulder line on close long term medium term neckline portfolio price objective recommended reverse head & shoulder relative strength short term symmetrical triangle target unchanged volume week yesterday close confirming line is positioning for a new 'confirming cycle'. It's important to always be aware of location, direction & cycling phase of the confirming line. Spinner signals are more effective in trending mkt's than in trading ranges where indicators such as Stochastics & Williams %R should be used. NOTE: payments for GCRU services should be made payable to MAP CUSTOMER SERVICE. Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us is published weekly. You may sign up for 3-mos at $3, 6-mos at $585, 9-mos at $855 or 12-mos $1,11. gcru@adenforecast.com - DISCLAIMER - Due to the electronic nature of s, there is a risk that the information contained in this message has been modified. Consequently Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us can accept no responsibility or liability as to the completeness or accuracy of the information. Whilst efforts are made to safeguard messages and attachments, Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us cannot guarantee that messages or attachments are virus free, do not contain malicious code or are compatible with your electronic systems and does not accept liability in respect of viruses, malicious code or any related problems that you may experience. Information in Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us is for general information only & is not intended to be relied upon by individual readers in making specific investment decisions. Appropriate independent advice should be obtained before making any such decisions. Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us do not guarantee or assure that readers will make money, or accept liability for any loss suffered by readers as a result of any such decision. Futures and share trading involves risk and is not for all investors. Past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Trading involves risk and should be pursued with risk capital only! 2