- GCRU- Weekly Trading Service

Transcription

1 - GCRU- Weekly Trading Service GCRU #659 October 14, 215 (in its 14 th year) IN THIS EDITION The Metals' Arena Is Looking Good! 2 Open Positions 21 Abbreviations 22 MARKET LEADERS Gold (futures) 6 Silver (futures) 7 US Dollar Index 8 Copper (futures) 9 Crude (futures) 1 D. Industrials & D. Transports 11 HUI & Adv/Dec Line 12 STOCKS ishares 2+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) 14 Mkt Vectors Jr. Gold Miners (GDXJ) 15 Royal Gold (RGLD) 16 EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION (XOM) 17 ProShares UltraShort QQQ (QID) 18 Direxion Gold Miners Bull (NUGT) 19 Silver Standard Resources (SSRI) 2 ProShares DB US Dollar Bear (UDN) 8 Everything should be made as simple as possible... but not simpler Albert Einstein 1

2 THE METALS' ARENA IS LOOKING GOOD! G old reached a 3 month high yesterday for the third straight day. It surpassed its August highs making this rise a stronger 'A' rise with more potential. Gold shares also jumped up to an almost 3 month high, while silver held on to its highs when it shot up last week. The metals group is looking better, and the wedges we showed you about a month ago told the story They're on their way to higher highs! The reality has set in that interest rates will stay low, and most likely until next year. The market mentality is finally realizing that rates aren't going to rise any time soon. This put more pressure on the already hurting U.S. dollar from the poor jobs report. The weaker dollar is also giving a boost to the commodity sector in general. The energy and resources are also looking better. Our Chart of the Week shows the Dollar index and gold movements this year. See how they move in opposite directions. Note the two green arrows. These are the times when the dollar index rose and gold declined this year. Interestingly, when gold fell to the July lows, the dollar index failed to rise to new highs. It's still well below the March highs and it doesn't look like these highs will be surpassed. Plus that March high was more of a weak euro rather than a strong dollar. And now since July, the dollar index has been under pressure while gold has been rising. The dollar index is currently at a 3+ week low, and if it declines and stays below 93, it'll be breaking down from this general high area. We'll keep our bearish put spread on the dollar and UDN, an ETF that moves opposite to the dollar. The dollar index below 93 would be very bearish for the Dollar and very bullish for gold. This is a key reason why we could get further rising metals ST and MT. We're now buying a bit of gold at market, and buy more on weakness. We bought some silver last week, and if you didn't, then buy this week at 15.5 or lower. We'll keep our bullish call spreads on both metals. Gold shares have room to rise much further. As you can see on the Chart Below, the HUI gold share index is bouncing up sharply from the bottom side of an almost two year down channel. While gold shares could stall a bit first because the ST indicator is too high for the time being, but on an intermediate basis, gold shares are just getting started in a good sized rise, see the lower MT indicator. 2

3 The bottom line is if HUI can stay above 116, its key ST MA, it'll stay poised to rise further. Its first target is the level, its old lows and the top of the downchannel. And possibly even more thereafter. Our positions are doing well. RGLD is up about 1% and so is NUGT after just buying it last week. GDXJ neared our first profit target, and we'll be selling half when it's reached. SSRI, our silver share, remains an open position to buy at a key level, as you'll see later in this edition. Government bonds also continue to be a safe haven. And yesterday was no exception when bonds bounced up, pushing the yields down as weak economic data from China and Germany renewed concerns over the global economic outlook. Plus, bonds are popular overseas. Last week the sale of US gov 1 year notes attracted the second highest overseas demand on record. This reinforced the appeal of haven assets in a low yield world. We'll keep our TLT position to ride it up further. Oil jumped up testing 5 while Exxon (XOM) hit our first target level, triggering a partial sell signal, and gaining 1% on half of our position. The stock market halted its 7 day winning streak with Transports and bio tech falling most. Plus, the S&P5 is starting to resist below its 65 week MA. It seems the rebound rise in stocks is nearing an end. We were stopped out of our QID position for a small loss. But we believe the stock market is poised to decline further, and we therefore suggest buying a bit once again at market, and more on a dip. 3

4 Remember buying QID is the same as shorting the NASDAQ. Our strategy for this week is to keep your positions and buy more as per our edition that follows. As usual, take profits when our targets are hit, and buy when our open positions are triggered. Our positions are doing well. We took some profits and have others building, and we believe you're set for a further rise. Good luck and good trading, Omar Ayales Chief Trading Strategist GCRU A division of Aden Research 4

5 MARKET LEADERS 5

6 GOLD DECEMBER 215 (GCZ15) 1/13/215 CLOSE = JAN MAY 3 MONTH HIGH! BROKE ABOVE JAN DOWNTREND MAR JUL UPTREND IS STILL KEY SUPPORT JUL ABOVE MT MA = BULLISH N D J F M A M J J A S O Call Spread New Recom Bought Dec /17 COMEX gold call spreads for approx $1,3 (Nov-2-13); Dec /16 gold call spreads for approx. $875 (Jan-8-14); Dec /135 for approx $25 (Aug-12-15). Keep your call spread positions. Buy a bit at market. Buy more at 1125 or lower. Broke above symetrical triangle showing upside potential and strength. Gold is showing strength as it breaks above the 215 downtrend for the first time all year. Gold is slowly approaching the top side of the Jul uptrend, our first target. Spinner above its MT MA showing rising momentum. Overall, more upside is likely. On the downside, the Jul uptrend near 1115 is key. Gold will remain bullish by holding above this level. However, a clear break below it on a 2dc below 1115 would show weakness that could push gold down to the Jul lows near 175. Keep your positions for now. 6

7 SILVER DECEMBER 215 (SIZ15) 1/13/215 CLOSE= JAN HOLDING NEAR THE RECENT HIGHS MAY AUG UPTREND AT 14.5 IS KEY ST SUPPORT AUG BROKE OUT FROM DOWNTREND = BULLISH J F M A M J J A S O LT Call Spread Long at: Bought Dec /27 COMEX silver call spreads for approx. $1,1 (Nov-2-13) & Dec 215 (23/24 COMEX silver call spreads for approx. $725 (Dec-24-13) (Oct-8-15). Stop 2dc below Profit Target: 17 & 2. New Recom: Keep your positions. If you didn t buy Silver this week, buy at 15.5 or lower. Holding at the highs! Silver continues to get a boost from strength in both gold and the resource sector. Spinner broke above a key downtrend showing strength and room to rise further. Silver could now rise to 17, its Jan downtrend. Silver must then rise above 17 on a 2dc to see further strength that could push it to the Jan highs near On the downside, the Aug uptrend near 14.5 remains key. Silver will show good upside potential by holding above this level. But a break below it would on a 2dc below 14.5, would re-confirm silver s bear market. Keep your positions as long as silver holds above the Aug uptrend. 7

8 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX DECEMBER 215 (DXZ15) 1/13/215 CLOSE= PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish ETF (UDN) 1/13/215 CLOSE= MAR BROKE BELOW AUG UPTREND 12 CONTINUES TO RISE 23 AUG Put Spread Profit Target New Recomm US Dollar Index Dec /91 bear put spreads at US$ , 91 MAY BEARISH AUG M A M J J A S O MAR Long Profit Target (Jul-29-15) & 28. Stops at 2dc below MAR UPTREND IS KEY M A M J J A S O Keep your positions. Sell put spread on a break below 94. Recom: Keep your position. Sell half near first profit target. AUG TURNING BULLISH The US Dollar Index confirmed ST weakness by breaking below the Aug uptrend after failing to break above its resistance at the 97 level where the Mar downtrend and the Sept highs converge. The dollar's next key support is at the May lows near 94. A break below this level would be bearish for the dollar. Dollar weakness is approaching our targets. Be quick to sell your dollar puts for a profit on a US Dollar Index break below 94. UDN bounced up from the Aug uptrend showing strength, approaching a 3+ week high! Spinner breaking up from its MT MA and zero line showing strength with room to rise further. All signs that more upside is likely. Keep your positions for now. Be quick to sell half at

9 COPPER DECEMBER 215 (HGZ15) 1/13/215 CLOSE= MAY CONTINUES TO REBOUND TESTING MAY DOWNTREND SEPT AUG SEPT RISING FROM EXTREME LOWS, NEARING HIGHS M J J A S O -.15 Higher lows Copper continued to rebound after is held above the Aug lows during Sept, breaking above the May downtrend at 2.4 showing strength. Notice Spinner breaking above zero and rising bullishly with room to rise further. This tells us copper will likely continue to rise and its Aug uptrend will continue to strengthen. Strength in copper has given silver a boost and will continue to do so as long as copper holds above the Aug uptrend. 9

10 LIGHT CRUDE OIL DECEMBER 215 (CLZ15) 1/13/215 CLOSE= MAY JUN BULLISH ABOVE AUG UPTREND RESISTANCE AT 52? M J J A S O AUG BULLISH ABOVE ZERO Bull Call Spread Dec /6 Bull Call Spreads at $425 (Aug-5-15); at $325 (Aug-12-15). Recom: Keep your bull call spread. Sell on a breakout above 51.5 Crude continued to rise after breaking clearly above its ST resistance at 48. However, it's now resisting at 52, well below the May downtrend. Crude's uptrend remains in tact and it'll likely rise further before declining and testing key support levels. Oil has support at 45. 1

11 SPDR DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL (DIA) 1/13/215 CLOSE= Shares Transportation Average (^IYT) 1/13/215 CLOSE= FEB MAR MAY F M A M J J A S O JUL BROKE ABOVE KEY ST RESISTANCE MAJOR TREND REMAINS DOWN LOOKING TOPPY AT OVERBOUGHT MACD (12, 26, 9) MACD (12, 26, 9) AUG BELOW MT MA, BOTTOMING ABOVE ZERO F M A M J J A S O FEB MAR RESISTING AT MAR DOWNTREND AUG LOOKING TOPPY AT THE HIGHS F M A M J J A S O STILL DOWN-BOTTOMING? F M A M J J A S O New Recom Stay out. The averages continued to move higher this past week since their gruesome decline in Aug. The Industrials broke above a key resistance level at the 169 level showing strength as Spinner turned bullish. However, the Transportations continue to lag. The Transportation Average (IYT) failed to rise above its Mar downtrend and today, it was one of worst sectors. Spinner for the Transportation is at a high and looking toppy. Keep in mind the Transports had been leading the decline all along, as it failed time and time again to confirm the Industrial's rise to new highs. The Transportations are showing critical signs of weakness yet again and we could see the Industrials follow, as they did earlier this year. Spinners for both averages are also forming a top at overbought levels. This tells us the upside is exhausted and likely limited ST. On the upside, both averages are holding above the Aug uptrend. If the averages manage to stay above this level, we could see them rise once again and test their resistance levels. Remember, the averages must confirm each other before a trend change can be confirmed. 11

12 ADEN GOLD STOCKS ADV/DEC LINE 1/13/215 CLOSE = DAY MA MAY WILL THE A/D LINE BREAK ABOVE 75 DAY MA? WEDGE TARGET REACHED! J F M A M J J A S O JAN HUI GOLD BUGS INDEX (HUI) 1/13/215 CLOSE= SUPPORT AT 15 LEVEL IS KEY GETTING CLOSER TO WEDGE MAR TARGET NEAR 15 MAY DEC J F M A M J J A S O BULLISH, BUT TESTING RESISTANCE BULLISH! MACD (12, 26, 9) LOOKING GOOD ABOVE ZERO MACD (12, 26, 9) BOUNCING UP FROM MT MA J F M A M J J A S O J F M A M J J A S O Gold shares continue to rise on gold's strength. The rebound rise is looking solid and we could now see gold shares test the highs of the year. HUI continued to rise after breaking above its bullish downside wedge. HUI still has room to rise further as the wedge target coincides with the Jan downtrend at 15. Moreover, notice Spinner breaking above a key resistance showing impressive strength. A clear HUI break above the Jan downtrend on a 2dc above 16 would show renewed strength that could push HUI to the 18-2 level. The A/D Line has reached its bullish downside wedge target at the 75 day MA. It s now testing this level. A break above this level would re-confirm strength in gold shares. However, if the A/D Line fails to breakout and declines, it'll confirm overall weakness and could decline to the recent low levels. Spinner for the A/D Line is at an extreme and it's showing limited upside. Our outlook on gold shares remains bullish. However, we must be cautious and keep a close eye on key support levels in case of a ST turn-around. We re currently holding GDXJ, RGLD and NUGT with built in profits. 12

13 STOCKS 13

14 Shares Barclays 2+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) 1/13/215 CLOSE= JAN HOLDING ABOVE BULLISH UPTREND SINCE JUNE AT JAN DOWNTREND AT 125 IS NEXT RESISTANCE J F M A M J J A S O JUN JUL SEPT SLIPPING BELOW ZERO BUT LOOKS GOOD ABOVE UPTREND ishares Trust - ishares 2+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) - NYSEArca Long at: Stop: Profit Target New Recom: (Jul-1-15), (Sept-3-15), (Sept-9-15). 2dc below 12 (adj). 128 (almost reached!) 132 & Keep your positions. Sell half at first profit target. TLT is in a solid uptrend rise, since June at 12. It s positioned to rise to the top side of the Jun upchannel near 128. Spinner declining, slipping below zero, but holding above its uptrend. This tells us, we could see weakness ST but as long as Spinner stays above its uptrend, upside momentum will remain strong. Keep your positions. Adjust and raise your stops, and be ready to sell half of your positions once our first profit target is reached. 14

15 MKT VECTORS JR. GOLD MINERS (GDXJ) 1/13/215 CLOSE= 21.6 JAN ROSE TO KEY RESISTANCE, NEAR TOP SIDE OF UPCHANNEL MAY JUN DEC SEPT JUL RISING & TESTING DOWNTREND D J F M A M J J A S O Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) - NYSEArca Long at: (Aug-12-15), (Sept-9-15), (Sept-16-15), (Sept-3-15). Stop: Profit target: New Recom: 2dc below , 27 and 3. Keep your position. Sell at first profit target. GDXJ rose to test its key Jan downtrend near A break above this level would position GDXJ to rise to its next resistance level near the Jun highs at 26. Spinner continues to rise showing rising momentum. However, it's reaching a downtrend of its own which represents some resistance. If Spinner breaks above its downtrend, we could see ongoing strength for GDXJ. This could then push GDXJ above the Jan downtrend & resistance level. On the downside, the Jul uptrend near 18.5 remains key. Keep your positions as long as GDXJ holds above this level. 15

16 JAN ROYAL GOLD (RGLD) 1/13/215 CLOSE= RESISTING AT JUL DOWNTREND JUL 46 IS KEY ST SUPPORT SEPT LOOKS GOOD ABOVE ZERO + ROOM TO RISE FURTHER J F M A M J J A S O Royal Gold, Inc (NASDAQ: RGLD) Also traded in TSX:RGL Long: Stop: Profit targets: New Recom: 46.5 (Aug-26-15), (Sept-4-15), 45.9 (Sept-3-15). 2dc below 46 (adj). 52 (almost reached!), 57. Keep your positions. Sell half at first profit target. RGLD moved higher but it stalled at a ST resistance level near 51. However, gold and gold shares continue to look strong. Spinner is also showing strength above its MT MA and zero line with room to rise further. Moreover, RGLD remains bullish by staying above the Sept uptrend near Keep your positions as upside potential outweighs downside risk. However, be quick to sell if support at 46 is broken to the downside on a 2dc, or if our target level is reached. 16

17 EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION (XOM) 1/13/215 CLOSE= MAY REACHED 2+ MONTH HIGH, BULLISH ABOVE SEPT 7 AUG STILL BULLISH M J J A S O Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) -NYSE Long at: Stop: Profit Target: New Recom: 72.5 (Sept-9-15), (Sept-22-15). Sold half at 8 for a 1% gain. 2dc below 75 (adj). 8 (reached!), 85 & 9. Keep the second half of your position. Sell the rest at second profit target or better. XOM followed up on its bullish breakout last week, reaching our first profit target, and allowing us to protect some profits. Spinner continues to look bullish as it's at the highest level in the past year. This tells us XOM could see some resistance at current levels (8). A clear break above 8 on a 2dc could push XOM to the top side of its Aug uptrend near 85, our second profit target. On the downside, crude's previous resistance at 75 is converging with the Aug uptrend exposing a new key support level. XOM will remain bullish by staying above 75. Keep the second half of your position. Be ready to sell if second profit target at 85 is reached. 17

18 ProShares UltraShort QQQ (QID) 1/13/215 CLOSE= US$ JAN HOLDING AT BOTTOM OF ADJUSTED UPCHANNEL KEY RESISTANCE ADJUSTED UPTREND AT 33.2 MAY JUL FORMING A BOTTOM AT EXTREME OVERSOLD J F M A M J J A S O ProShares UltraShort QQQ (QID) -NYSEArca Long at: (Sept-3-15), (Oct-15-15), 34 (Oct-8-15). Sold via stop loss today for a 5% loss. New Recom: Buy again a bit at mkt and more on a dip to 33. Stop loss at 31 on 2 dc. Profit target initially at 42. Got whipped out of our positions today. However, outlook for tech stocks is still negative so we recommend buying back at current levels and more on further weakness. QID declined to bottom of adjusted Jul upchannel. Spinner near an extreme level. This tells us that downside is likely limited to the Jul lows (NASDAQ recent highs at 5218) We recommend buying again a bit at mkt, and more on weakness. 18

19 DIREXION GOLD MINERS BULL 3X ETF (NUGT) 1/13/215 CLOSE= 43.6 JUL 86 GROWING SEPT UPTREND SEPT BULLISH J A S O Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF (NUGT) -NYSEArca Long at: Stop: (Oct-7-15). 2dc below 38 (adj). Profit Target 52.5 (adj) & 8 (adj) Recom: Keep your positions. We bought some NUGT this week. It s now approaching the top side of a 3 mo sideways band at 52.5 (our adj profit target), a key ST resistance level. A break above this level would confirm bullish action since Sept that could fuel a rise to the Jul highs near 85. Spinner bullish, with room to rise further. Keep in mind NUGT will remain bullish if it holds above the Sept uptrend near 39. Hold on to your positions unless this uptrend is clearly violated on a 2dc below

20 SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES Inc. (SSRI) 1/13/215 CLOSE= ONGOING BULLISH RISE SINCE MAR JUN 7 6 AUG SEPT 5 MAR TESTING MT MA, WATCH ZERO M A M J J A S O Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSRI) -NasdaqGS SSRI continues to pull back after approaching the top side of its Mar upchannel near SSRI is slipping below 7. Spinner broke below its MT MA and it s nearing a key uptrend. This tells us, we could see SSRI drop to our entry target near 6.5 within the next week or so. Buy at 6.5 or less. Profit Targest at 8. Stop losses at 2dc below

21 OPEN POSITIONS Symbol Trade Update &/or Current Position Status Initial Initial Entry Traders re- Last Stops Target Target (L=Long, S= Entry Date Price bot/ -sold at Closing #1 #2 Short, O= Price Out P= Put C= Call) SHARES TLT Keep your positions. Sell half at first profit target. L Jul , SSRI We recommend buying some 6.5 or less. O 6.96 NUGT Keep your positions. L Oct dc below 12 2dc below dc below QID Buy again a bit at mkt and more on a dip to 33. Stop loss at 31 on 2 dc. O dc below RGLD Keep your positions. Sell half at first profit target. L Aug , dc below GDXJ Keep your position. Sell at first profit target. L Aug dc below UDN Keep your position. Sell half near first profit target. L Jul dc below XOM Keep the second half of your position. Sell the rest at second profit target or better. L Sept dc below MARKET LEADERS Gold - GCZ15 Keep your call spread positions. Buy a bit at market. Buy more at 1125 or lower. C Crude- CLZ15 Keep your bull call spread. Sell on a breakout above 51.5 C Silver SIZ15 Keep your positions. If you didn t buy Silver this week, buy at 15.5 or lower. L, C Oct dc below US Dollar DXZ15 Keep your positions. Sell put spread on a break below 94. P COPPER HGZ15 Stay out. O

22 Quoting GCRU is permitted provided GCRU name, website address & subscription price are given. All charts in GCRU are daily prices. Fax subscribers please note this week s password to access GCRU daily edition via our website is: (goldrise). Subscribers can obtain free online chart updates for all gold shares in GCRU via: To view Canadian stks please use CA as prefix (ie, to view Agnico Eagle (Toronto) you must use CA:AEM). Note: U should NOT feel our recommended prices are set in concrete. If mkts suddenly feel hot or cold to U, or dramatic news occurs, U can buy or sell, or stop at slightly higher or slightly lower prices. It also hinges on your experience level. Some people can use our prices as guides & know when they can take bigger risks. Spinner: Spinner is an in-house momentum indicator (not always shown on charts). Momentum indicators use the rate of change in price to determine predominant energy flows. Spinner trading signals are generated when the faster timing line crosses above or below the slower confirming line. Upside crosses in the lower range of positive territory offer the most reliable signals for longs; downside crosses in the top range of negative territory for shorts. Avoid trading against the timing line, ie, buying/selling if the timing line is in corrective mode (against direction of trade) unless the 1dc 2dc bot CAD$ H&S LOC LT MT NL PF PO Recom RH&S RS ST Sym/tri Tgt Unch Vol Wk Ystdy C ABBREVIATIONS 1-day close (the share price must close above or below the indicated price level, before our recommendation is activated) 2-day close (consecutive) bought Canadian dollar head & shoulder line on close long term medium term neckline portfolio price objective recommended reverse head & shoulder relative strength short term symmetrical triangle target unchanged volume week yesterday close confirming line is positioning for a new 'confirming cycle'. It's important to always be aware of location, direction & cycling phase of the confirming line. Spinner signals are more effective in trending mkt's than in trading ranges where indicators such as Stochastics & Williams %R should be used. NOTE: payments for GCRU services should be made payable to MAP CUSTOMER SERVICE. Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us is published weekly. You may sign up for 3-mos at $3, 6-mos at $585, 9-mos at $855 or 12-mos $1,11. gcru@adenforecast.com - DISCLAIMER - Due to the electronic nature of s, there is a risk that the information contained in this message has been modified. Consequently Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us can accept no responsibility or liability as to the completeness or accuracy of the information. Whilst efforts are made to safeguard messages and attachments, Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us cannot guarantee that messages or attachments are virus free, do not contain malicious code or are compatible with your electronic systems and does not accept liability in respect of viruses, malicious code or any related problems that you may experience. Information in Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us is for general information only & is not intended to be relied upon by individual readers in making specific investment decisions. Appropriate independent advice should be obtained before making any such decisions. Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us do not guarantee or assure that readers will make money, or accept liability for any loss suffered by readers as a result of any such decision. Futures and share trading involves risk and is not for all investors. Past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Trading involves risk and should be pursued with risk capital only! 22