Market Review Fundamental Perspective

Transcription

1 Friday, December 11, 2015 Good morning from Hamburg and welcome to our last Daily FX Report for this week. Senior U.S. Treasury official Adam Szubin said yesterday that Islamic State militants are engaged in oil trading worth as much as $40 million a month with significant volumes sold to the government of President Bashar al-assad and some finding its way across the border into Turkey. Islamic State militants have made more than $500 millin from black market oil sales and looted up to $1 billion from bank vaults in Syria and Iraq. Anyway, we wish you a relaxing weekend! Market Review Fundamental Perspective On Thursday the Dow Jones Index of shares climbed 0.5 percent and the Standard & Poor s Index rose 0.2 percent. The Treasury Department said yesterday that the U.S. federal government ran $65 billion into the red in November, up 14 percent from the same period last year when the deficit was only $57 billion. Economists had expected a $68 billion deficit for November. The current fiscal year-to-date deficit stood at $201 billion. Furthermore data showed yesterday that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased to a fivemonth high last week, but this likely does not signal a deterioration in the labor market as the underlying trend remained consistent with tithening conditions. Initial jobless claims for state unemployment benefits rose 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 282,000 for the past week, which is the highest level since early July. Claims have now been below the 300,000 threshold for 40 straight weeks., which is the longest stretch since the early 1970s. Besides that other data yesterday showed that cheaper crude oil and a strong USD are keeping imported inflation pressures subdued in the pat month. The EUR/USD depreciated to and the USD/JPY gained to The EUR/JPY traded at Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said inflation will rebound toward his 2 percent target next year once the effect if lower oil prices fades from the equation. Yesterday the Bank of England left borrowing costs at a record-low 0.5 percent in its last decision this year. Released minutes showed that the Committee voted 8-1 to keep the status quo. Officials said low oil prices and subdued wage growth would keep a lid on inflation.the GBP/USD was nearly unchanged at and the EUR/GBP dropped 0.5 percent to

2 Daily Technical Analysis EUR/USD (4 Hours) As we had estimated on Monday the bullish trend of the pair continued towards the reistance line around It remains to be seen if this level is too strong to be crossed while the OsMA is showing a comeback of the USD. Next support line is around Support & Resistance (4 Hours) Support Levels around Resistance Levels around N/A

3 GBP/USD (4 Hours) As you can see our assumption from the beginning of this week came true and the currency pair continued to tumble after it failed to cross the bearish trend line. The RSI is also indicating a decrease towards the next support line around or even below. Support & Resistance (4 Hours) Support Levels around Resistance Levels around N/A

4 XAU/USD (4 Hours) The chart put us right as the pair failed to start a trend reversal and enter the bearish Fibonacci fan. Instead it continued to decline and we have to wait and see if the close support line around is strong enough to stop the bears otherwise more losses are possible. The RSI is also pointing downwards. Support & Resistance (4 Hours) Support Levels around Resistance Levels around N/A

5 Daily Calendar & Key Events Date Time (GMT) Economic Indicator Last Survey 11/12/ :00 GE CPI MoM 0.1% 0.1% 11/12/ :00 GE CPI YoY 0.4% 0.4% 11/12/ :00 GE CPI EU Harmonized MoM 0.1% 0.1% 11/12/ :00 GE CPI EU Harmonized YoY 0.3% 0.3% 11/12/ :30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.1% 0.3% 11/12/ :30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.2% 0.3% 11/12/ :30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.3% 0.4% 11/12/ :30 US PPI Final Demand MoM -0.4% 0.0% 11/12/ :30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM -0.3% 0.1% 11/12/ :30 US PPI Final Demand YoY -1.6% -1.4% 11/12/ :30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY -1.6% -1.4% 11/12/ :00 US U.of Mich. Sentiment /12/ :00 US Business Inventories 0.3% 0.1% If you have any questions, please contact us for further assistance. 24 hours a day: German: Arabic: English: h Trading Support: Turkish:

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