Gold Moves in Long Cycles. Source: Global Financial Data, US Bureau of Labor Statistics
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1 Shanghai December, /20/2013
2 Gold Moves in Long Cycles Source: Global Financial Data, US Bureau of Labor Statistics
3 Gold Price Declines 34% % % 15% Source: Bloomberg
4 The 1970 Bull Market Price Corrections Source: Dundee Wealth
5 Gold: Corrections Normal Last Price High on 09/30/ Average Low on 01/30/ Down 44% in 18 months March 78! 4 years Nov 73 Dec 75 Dec 76 Dec 77 Dec 78 Dec 79 Source: Bloomberg
6 Move Above Trend Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Source: Bloomberg
7 Broke Long-term Trend Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Source: Bloomberg
8 Europe Tightens Jan-08 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Source: Dundee Wealth
9 Source: Mining.com Outflows from ETFs
10 Gold Shares Decline Source: Bloomberg
11 Costs of Mining an Ounce of Gold Source: Brent Cooks: Exploration Insights
12 Many Lose Money 70% 2012 Q1 13 Q % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% >$1,300 >$1,200 >$1,100 >$1,000 >$ 900 >$ 800 Proportion of selected mining operations with production costs greater then $/Au oz. Source: Intierra, Haywood Securities
13 Source: Intierra, Barrick Declining Discoveries
14 Lots of Money Raised 4,500 4, Annotated with avg transaction size 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Total Value (C$M) Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Source: MEG, Capital IQ, Haywood Securities
15 Gold Stocks Lag Gold X n GOLDS Comdty XAU Index Source: Bloomberg
16 Growth of Central Bank Balance Sheets 2001 = 100 Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics; CEIC; Datastream; national data
17 Country Global Interest Rates Central Bank Rate CPI Rate Australia 3.50% 1.20% Belgium 0.75% 2.32% Canada 1.00% 1.30% China 6.00% 1.80% Germany 0.75% 1.70% France 0.75% 1.90% United Kingdom 0.50% 2.60% Italy 0.75% 3.10% Japan 0.10% -0.20% Netherlands 0.75% 2.30% Sweden 1.50% 0.70% Singapore 0.03% 5.30% United States 0.25% 1.70%
18 Dollar in Foreign Exchange Reserves 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% World Advanced Emerging Q2Q Source: IMF COFER Database
19 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 $ Billions Foreigners Buy Fewer --Three-month total net foreign acquisition of long-term securities Foreigners sold in credit crisis $50 -$100 Foreigners sold record amount through May Source: US Treasury TIC Data July 16, 2013
20 China: Growth Stabilized GDPNTTLY latest 7.8% Source: Bloomberg 09/02/2013
21 Production Flat Gold Production (million of ounces) Source: Goldsheetlinks.com
22 Source: World Gold Council Central Banks Net Purchases
23 Gold Reserves Country Percent US U.S. 76% Germany 63% France 57% Spain 38% India 6% Japan 2% China 2% * World Average 14% *Last reported
24 Annual Chinese Gold Net Imports from Hong Kong Source: Sharelynx
25 Gold Stocks Undervalued Pi Price to Book kvl Value Source: Bloomberg
26 Gold Stocks Undervalued (2) Source: Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse research
27 Gold Stocks Undervalued (3) Source: Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse research
28 Gold Stocks Yield More XAU Yield vs. S&P 3.50 n SPX n XAU Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec Source: Bloomberg *Aug 11, 2013
29 Gold Stocks Can Outperform Gold and Index Golds Gold Spot $/oz XAU Phila Gold & Silver GG US RGLD US Source: Bloomberg
30 Strong Stocks Outperform Stocks with Warts NEM US ABX US GG US GFI US Source: Bloomberg
31 Companies with Growth XAU PHILA GOLD & SILVER AU US NBM US GG US Goldcorp, with a strong balance sheet, high-margin mines in politically safe jurisdictions, and a strong pipeline, outperforms the index, while companies with residual hedging g obligations o or that made of high-cost acquisitions s underperformed. ed. 50 Source: Bloomberg
32 Royalty Business Model ** * Revenue royalties & streams ** Cost?
33 Advantages Prospect Generators More certain exposure Multiple opportunities Preserve bl balance sheet Disadvantages Time Low leverage Partners Still exploration risks
34 Barrick Gold, #1 No More $7.3 billion copper purchase; <2 years later, $3 billion write down Hedged gold at bottom, and finally bought back in 2011 at top Ri Raised ddiid dividend din mid-2012; id2012 slashed 75% in mid-2013 Early 2013 raised $3 billion equity with stock down Late 2013 raised $3 billion debt Net worth cut 50% Loss of $9.3 billion $17 million bonus to co-chairman Directors and management pay increases, $2.5m to $4.5m No longer #1 Stock 12-year lows 11/13
35 Pascua-Lama 2009: $2.5 b 2009: <$3 b July 2011: $4.7-$5 $5 b July 2012: $7.5 b February 2013: $8-$8.5 b April 2013: $8.5 b September 2013: $10 b Mid-2014 Late October 2013: suspended 11/13
36
37 We are speaking on behalf of Adrian Day Asset Management. Adrian Day Asset Management is a registered investment advisory firm, separate from his other businesses and services. Our clients as well as Adrian Day and staff may own stocks mentioned herein. In his capacity as CIO, Adrian Day may be buying or selling for clients securities recommended d herein concurrently, before or after recommendations herein and may be acting for clients in a manner contrary to recommendations herein. Information herein on specific securities is illustrative only. Please see an ADV for complete disclosure information. Adrian Day Asset Management P.O. Box 6643, Annapolis, MD AssetManagement@AdrianDay.com t@ad (410)
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