COMPETING IN THE GLOBAL MARKETPLACE Transportation, Elevator, and Grain Merchants Association

Transcription

1 COMPETING IN THE GLOBAL MARKETPLACE Transportation, Elevator, and Grain Merchants Association January 22, 2014 Steven Zehr Chief Financial Officer Agriculture GLOBAL MARKETPLACE Macro trends that are driving global commerce Agriculture markets application Identify countries and for what commodity Reasons for expanding beyond the domestic market Identification of the customers and their DNA First steps before the first transaction 2 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22,

2 UNCERTAINTY 3 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22, 2014 GLOBAL IS THE BIG IDEA FOR A REASON Rising population and prosperity is driving new consumer growth More importantly the world s middle class is growing Most of the world s new middle class will live emerging markets Emerging markets will be a disruptive force in the global landscape Urban centers are growing what does that mean exactly? Problems with physical market boundaries are being solved by professional supply chain managers and their industry partners Global news is real time but global data is not Potential customers are everywhere 4 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22,

3 WHERE ARE THE PEOPLE? Source: Valerie Pieris, Reddit 5 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22, 2014 ALL ABOUT MONEY Mid Class Population North America % % % Europe % % % LATAM % 251 8% 313 6% Asia Pacific % 1,740 54% 3,228 66% Sub Saharan Africa 32 2% 57 2% 107 2% MENA 105 6% 165 5% 234 5% World 1,845 3,249 4,884 *Middle Class defined as households with $10 $100 per day of purchasing power parity terms Mid Class Spending North America $5,602 26% $5,863 17% $5,837 10% Europe $8,138 38% $10,301 29% $11,337 20% LATAM $1,534 7% $2,315 7% $3,117 6% Asia Pacific $4,952 23% $14,798 42% $32,596 59% Sub Saharan Africa $256 1% $448 1% $827 1% MENA $796 4% $1,321 4% $1,966 4% World $21,278 $35,046 $55,680 *Millions of 2005 Purchasing Power dollars Source: Wolfenson Center For Development, Brookings 6 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22,

4 WORLD MIDDLE-CLASS GROWTH = DEMAND 3,500 Global Middle-Class Populations 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Sub-Saharan Africa MENA LATAM North America Europe Asia Pacific Global Middle Spending ($ in millions) Sub-Saharan Africa MENA LATAM North America Europe Asia Pacific Source: Wolfenson Center For Development, Brookings 7 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22, 2014 URBAN CENTERS ARE GROWING Source: Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division 8 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22,

5 GLOBAL GDP Emerging markets will overtake developed economies by 2014 Source: World Economic Outlook Database, International Monetary Fund, October Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22, 2014 SELECTION OF THE COUNTRY IS IMPORTANT 10 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22,

6 CUSTOMERS ARE EVERYWHERE BUT Source: James Mintz Group 11 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22, 2014 CUSTOMERS ARE EVERYWHERE BUT Source: Transparency International 12 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22,

7 GOVERNMENTS ARE CRACKING DOWN United States has a wide net 1. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) 2. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) a) What is a Specialty Designated National (SDN) b) Which countries are targeted 13 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22, 2014 DOMESTIC VERSUS GLOBAL Factors Home Market Overseas market Economic Culture No currency Secure financial environment No language issue Know social structure Purchasing habits Different currency Uncertain/Changing Language barriers Social structure Unknown purchasing habits Technical Familiar standards No need for adaptation Different standards Adaptation Legal Known Laws and Regulations Different/changing regulations Political requirements Competitive Availability of data Known competitors Unreliable data Unknown competitors 14 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22,

8 WHY GLOBAL? 1. The company has exhausted the demand for the product or service in the domestic market 2. The company has thoroughly studied the global market and defined certain destinations and customers that will provide incremental volume and margins 3. A global presence provides information needed to be successful in the domestic market 15 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22, 2014 AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY For the Agriculture Industry 2 & 3 are most applicable: You have studied the global market and defined certain destinations and customers that will provide incremental volume and margins Your company has a discernible competitive advantage, e.g., transportation, commodity, customer, supplier A global presence can provide information needed to be successful in your domestic market Certain types of market information will have an impact on the domestic market, e.g., China corn/ddg cancellations 16 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22,

9 WHAT MARKETS DO WE SELECT Wheat USA EU 27 Canada Australia Argentina Blk Sea Other Total Share Africa % Far East % Mid and Near East % LATAM % EU % USA % Total Corn USA Argentina Brazil Ukraine Others Total Share Asia % Western Hemisphere % Africa % EU % Total Beans USA Argentina Brazil Paraguay Canada Total Share China % EU % Indonesia % Mexico % Japan % Taiwan % Others % Total Source: Informa / Gav Econ 17 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22, 2014 REGIONAL DESTINATION TRADE MATRIX World Wheat Trade = ~120mmts 6% Africa 16% 21% 25% 30% Far East Mid and Near East LATAM EU 27 World Corn Trade = ~95mmts 6% 16% 28% 50% Asia West Hemisphere Africa EU 27 World Beans Trade = ~100mmts 2% 4% 11% China O/Asia 16% EU 27 67% MENA Mexico Source: Informa / Gav Econ Wheat is a very diversified trade Corn is similar BUT Asia is dominant destination Total Asia including China imports 83% of the export trade of beans 18 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22,

10 ORIGIN CHARACTERISTICS Brazil Supplier base is robust Big bean suppliers with and emerging as a global corn supplier Private negotiation with a relatively liquid cash market Massive infrastructure issues that gets solved in interesting ways makes chartering difficult Black Sea Supplier base is big and growing Contract execution is very difficult if the market goes up Private negotiation with liquidity in certain situations MENA has been depending on this origin Freight opportunities are good Australia Supplier base is very good Completely open system Weather is a concern every year Freight opportunities are limited 19 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22, 2014 DESTINATION CHARACTERISTICS Middle East and North Africa Customer base requires lots of local attention with direct customer interaction Credit is required Execution risk is high Tender and/or private negotiation Freight optimization is not ideal Asia Lots of customers which generally can be handled more globally USA and AUS are critical origins handled best with an end to end supply chain Business tends to be weekly with wheat on tender, everything else tends to be private negotiation Freight optimization is good and vessel owners can be accommodating Latin America Lots of private buying best handled locally with intense customer interaction Credit required NA and SA dominates as the origins Transportation is important with multiple commodities loaded on every vessel 20 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22,

11 FOCUSED CONSIDERATION Who is the customer may not always be clear Country, Customer and Competitor risk Really define the supply chain to the destination Mark to market assessment of the existing contract Payment terms Trade rules - governing contract Regulations and licenses People Global execution with local representation 21 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22, 2014 CUSTOMER Clearly understand the Customer s Critical Measurements What are they using the product for What creates value Financial strength of your counter party(s) Country risk 14% 10% Trade governance Price in not everything 18% 10% 30% Sales calls Selection of products Price Consistency Technical support On-time delivery 18% Source: Factors involved in purchasing decisions McKinsey 22 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22,

12 SUPPLY CHAIN Management of the supply chain Product durability Transportation responsibilities Infrastructure capabilities (loading and unloading) Shipment period and remedies Delivery terms and specifications producers origination transportat ion logistics storage value add transportat ion logistics marketing distributio n consumers 23 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22, 2014 PRICING AND RISK $$$$ Routine M2M Assessment Always a big focus at the time of sale Valuation during the existence of the contract Will help highlight potential problems Margining requirements addressed during the negotiation 24 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22,

13 EXECUTION OF THE TRANSACTION Requirements for buyer and seller Contract quality Payment terms and triggers Specifications which are the most important Shipment period Delivery period Conveyance Clear understanding of remedies 25 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22, 2014 PEOPLE Global markets are different Experience is Required Time zones Regulations and Laws (FCPA, OFAC) Responsibilities Trade disagreements Travel requirements What is a contract? Training, Training, Training 26 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22,

14 CONCLUSION Succeeding in the global marketplace requires commitment There will be short-term costs Clearly understand the customer Participation requires you to really study the supply chain Supply chain partners must be dedicated to the long term advantages of working together Training of the people is critical before the first transaction Ability to innovate remains a vital characteristic of the winning companies All details matter Problems only get worse so attack them with lightning speed 27 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22, 2014 QUESTIONS 28 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22,

15 THANK YOU 29 Competing in the Global Marketplace January 22,