Fixed Income: Australian Debt Securities Update

Transcription

1 28 May 1 June The Week Ahead Concerns linger on over the health of the Spanish banking system and the Greek political situation. On Tuesday, the RBA will hold its monthly board meeting. The market is beginning to lean towards 50bps of cuts. A number of Central Banks around the world will hold their board meetings next week including the ECB, BoE and BoC. A$MTN Primary Issuance Update (Format) Rating Issue Maturity Amount Coupon Spread to Benchmark Suncorp-Metway Australian Office of Financial Management (CGS) Australian Office of Financial Management (CGS) A+/A1 Aaa/AAA (Fitch) AAA/Aaa AAA/Aaa Apr-27 AAA/Aaa AAA/Aaa May-21 Dec-16 A$1.10bn 4.75% MS + Dec-14 A$500m 3mBBSW mBBSW A$700m (A$4.45bn outstanding) A$700m (A$16.40bn outstanding) 4.75% 5.75% % (weighted average issue yield) % (weighted average issue yield) Primary Issuance Table Sector Week ending 25 May Year to Date 2011 Year to Date Comparison SSA 25 A$9.95bn 34 A$14.225bn -A$4.275bn Domestic Banks 1 A$1.60bn 14 A$20.48bn 11 A$11.87bn +A$8.61bn Foreign Bank/Branches 9 A$6.08bn 16 A$12.4bn -A$6.32bn Non Bank Financial 4 A$1.01bn 7 A$1.7bn -A$0.69bn Corporate 10 A$4.03bn 14 A$3.25bn A$780m Semi Government 12 A$6.465bn 3 A$8.65bn -A$2.185bn Total 1 A$1.60bn 74 A$48.015bn 85 A$52.095bn -A$4.08bn Sources: CBA & Bloomberg General Advice Warning: This advice has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting you should consider its appropriateness to your circumstances. Commonwealth Bank of Australia as a provider of investment, borrowing and other financial services undertakes financial transactions with many corporate entities in Australia. This may include any corporate issuer referred to in this report.

2 Other significant bond market developments Tatts Group (Tatts) launched a seven-year Australian senior bond deal to retail investors on May 29 with an indicative volume of A$200m. Upcoming Economic Events Monday 4 June Tuesday 5 June Wednesday 6 June Thursday 7 June Friday 8 June AU TD inflat gauge May, m/y%ch, (0.3/1.9) AU Company profits, QI, q%ch, -3.0, (-6.5) AU Inventories, QI, q%ch, 1.0, (1.4) AU ANZ Job ads, May, m%ch, (-3.1) EU PPI, Apr, m/y%ch, (0.5/3.3) US Factory orders, Apr, m%ch, (-1.9) US ISM non-manufacturing, May, Index, (53.5) AU CBA/Ai-Group Perf of Serv Index, May, Index, (39.6) AU GDP, QI, q/y%ch, 0.5/3.2, (0.4/2.3) AU Ai-Group PCI, May, Index, (34.9) AU RBA Gov. Stevens speaks in Adelaide AU Current acc deficit, QI, $bn, -15.1, (-8.4) EU GDP, QI, q/y%ch, (0/0) AU Labour Force, May AU Housing Finance, Apr AU Net export contrib, QI, EU ECB announces int. rate, own-occupiers, %, ppt, -0.8, (0.3) %, 1.00, (1.00) employment, '000, -5, (15.5) 0.0, (0.3) AU RBA cash rate, %, 3.75, GE Industrial production, Apr, unemployment rate, %, 5.1, Value of all loans, %, 1.0, (- (3.75) m/y%ch, (2.8/1.6) (4.9) 0.3) AU Gov. Finance Statistics, UK PMI construction, May, participation rate, %, 65.2, AU Trade balance Apr, $bn, - QI Index, (55.8) (65.2) 1.0, (-1.6) EU PMI services/composite, US Federal Reserve Beige JP Coincident / Leading index, CH PPI/CPI, May, y%ch, (- May, Index, (46.5/45.9) Book Apr, Index, (96.7/96.4) 0.7/3.4) EU Retail sales, Apr, m/y%ch, UK PMI services, May, Index, CH Industrial production/retail (0.5/0.3) (53.3) sales, May, y%ch, (9.3/14.1) GE PMI services, May, Index, UK BoE announces rates, %, CH Trade balance May, US$bn, (52.2) 0.50, (0.50) (18.4) GE Factory orders, Apr, US Consumer credit, Apr, m/y%ch, (2.2/-1.3) US$bn, (21.4) JP GDP, QI, q%ch, (1.0) CA Building permits, Apr, JP Curr a/c total/adjusted, Apr, m%ch, (4.7) bn, (1589.4/785.5) CA Bank of Canada, %, 1.00, (1.00) UK PPI Input/Output/core, May, y%ch, (1.2/3.3/2.3) US Trade balance, Apr, US$bn, (-51.8) CA Unemployment rate, May, %, (7.3) *Note: Values in brackets represent the prior observed value. Numbers outside brackets are CBA forecasts Australian Credit Market Update itraxx Australia moved 3bps wider and ended the week at c.200bps. Corporate bond yields generally widened as risk-off theme dominates again in the global markets. Cash bonds were slightly skewed to the sell side. SSAs especially the European names have been hit hard this week as the Eurozone crisis deepens resulting in spread widening. The RBA is likely to cut rates next week. Market expectations are caught between a 25bp and a 50bp cut at next Tuesday s meeting with IB futures pricing implying a 75% chance of a 50bp cut. 2

3 Fixed Income: Australian Debt Securities Update Australian Rates Market Update Figure 1: 3Y and 10Y Australian Bond Quiet day in Australia as proausterity party in Greece gains ground in opinion polls. Aussie 3yr closed 6bps lower and 10yr was sold off 1bps. US is on the Memorial Day holiday. Ongoing concerns over the health of the Spanish banking system resulted in lower yields for both 3 and 10yr Aussie bonds. Ausssie bonds rallied again as the official Chinese Xinhua news agency hinted that China did not intend on a massive stimulus package. The rally was re-enforced by worse-thanexpected April Retail Sales figure domestically. Risk-off theme dominates as situation worsens in Spain. Aussie 3 and 10yr closed approximately 14-16bps up. Aussie bonds rallied again as global fears drove investors to safer assets. Concerns over Europe linger on whilst softer economic data came out of both US and China Friday 25 May Monday 28 May Tuesday 29 May Wednesday 30 May Thursday 31 May Friday 1 June 1.80 ACGB 10Y Bond (LHS) ACGB 3Y Bond (RHS) Sources: CBA & Bloomberg Ratings News New Rating / Withdrawal Nothing to Report Upgrades or Downgrades Credit Watch/ Outlook Moody s downgraded the ratings for nine Danish Financial Institutions by one to three notches. S&P downgraded South Australia from AAA to AA+ with a negative outlook. S&P downgraded Bankia, Bankinter and Banco Popular Espanol from BBB- to BB+. S&P downgraded Banca Civica from BB+ to BB. S&P downgraded Banco Financiero y de Ahoorros from BB- to B+. Moody s announced that it will review the Australian lenders mortgage insurance sector, placing the ratings of the local participants on review for possible downgrade. 3

4 Spread (bps) Spread (bps) (%) Spread (bps) Fixed Income: Australian Debt Securities Update Swap Rates Figure 2a: Australian Swap Rates Fri, 11 May 12 Fri, 18 May 12 Fri, 25 May 12 Fri, 01 Jun 12 Figure 2b: Australian Basis Swap Rates year 7 year 10 year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year Rates Figure 3a: Australian Rates Figure 3b: CBA Rates Forecasts RBA Cash Rate 90-day Bank Bill 10Y ACGB 180-day Bank Bill 3Y ACGB End period May-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 RBA Cash Rate (%) Day Bank Bill (%) Day Bank Bill (%) Year Bond (%) Year Bond (%) Credit Markets Figure 4a: Global CDS Indices itraxx Australia (LHS) itraxx Asia (ex Japan) (LHS) U.S. CDX (RHS) Figure 4b: VIX VIX Australian Banks Figure 5a: Current Major Bank Spreads Rating Maturity Coupon Spread to Swap ANZ AA- / Aa2 Feb % CBA AA- / Aa2 Jul % CBA AA- / Aa2 Feb % NAB AA- / Aa2 Sep % WBC AA- / Aa2 Aug % WBC AA- / Aa2 Feb % Figure 5b: Australian Bank CDS Major Bank Average Senior CDS 4

5 Contact Us Debt Capital Markets Origination Sydney Telephone Address Simon Ling Daniel Cassels Rob Kenna Truong Le Danielle Lavars Tabitha Potts Simon Rutz Andrew Murray Alex Lucy Wendy Butler Shawn Xiong Katherine Chan Hugh Wallace Head of Debt Capital Markets Origination Executive Manager, FIG Origination Executive Manager, Corporate Origination Executive Manager, Retail Origination Manager, Debt Capital Markets Origination Manager, Commercial Paper Analyst, Retail Debt Capital Markets Origination Analyst, Debt Capital Markets Origination simon.ling@cba.com.au daniel.cassels@cba.com.au rob.kenna@cba.com.au truong.le@cba.com.au danielle.lavars@cba.com.au tabitha.potts@cba.com.au simon.rutz@cba.com.au andrew.murray@cba.com.au alexander.lucy@cba.com.au wendy.butler@cba.com.au shawn.xiong@cba.com.au chank@cba.com.au hugh.wallace@cba.com.au New York / Sydney Telephone Address Bill Stevenson Mark Wang Hilary Ward Amy Lung Senior Manager, USPP Fixed Income Origination William.stevenson@cba.com.au mark.wang@cba.com.au wardhi@cba.com.au amy.lung@cba.com.au London Telephone Address James Hammermaster Sean Rosas Senior Manager, FIG Origination james.hammermaster@cba.com.au sean.rosas@cba.com.au Auckland Telephone Address Brian McTaggart Richard Howse Charlotte Hover Head of Capital Markets NZ Director Executive Assistant brian.mctaggart@asb.co.nz richard.howse@asb.co.nz charlotte.hover@asb.co.nz Fixed Income Syndication Sydney Telephone Address Paul O Brien Patrick Moore Head of Fixed Income Syndication Senior Manager, Fixed Income Syndication paul.edward.obrien@cba.com.au patrick.moore@cba.com.au Sales Institutional Telephone Equities Telephone Syd Melb Lon HK Sing NY FX Credit Japan Desk FX Debt & Derivatives Corporate Syd Asia Lon/Eu NY Corporate NSW VIC SA WA QLD NZ Metals Desk Agri Desk (Corp) Agri Desk Telephone